The future of energy in transport - European and Italian scenarios
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1 The future of energy in transport - European and Italian scenarios Martino dal Verme Energy Monitoring, Studies and Statistics ERESS FORUM Rome, 13 th June 2018
2 GSE The corporate structure Main activities Ministry of Economic Development Ministry of Economy and Finance ARERA Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and Environment INCENTIVES AND PROMOTION OF ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES Qualifying RES plants Granting incentives, purchase & resale energy, certification On site verification of plants Satellite-assisted metering (forecast of energy production) Strategy GSE Gestore dei Servizi Energetici Resolutions ENERGY EFFICIENCY, RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR HEATING & COOLING AND TRASPORT White Certificates High-efficiency CHP Heating & Cooling support scheme Biofuel On site verification of plants AU Acquirente Unico GME Gestore dei Mercati Energetici RSE Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico Mission to foster sustainable development by providing support for renewable energy and energy efficiency and by taking actions to build awareness of environmentally-efficient energy uses. 2 INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITIES AND OTHER TECHNICAL ENERGY SERVICES Support to the institutional policy makers and Public Administrations Monitoring, Studies and Statistics International activities (IEA, IRENA, European projects, etc.) ETS auctions to sale the Italian CO2 allowances Promotion and communication
3 Renewables in transport National statistics Energy consumptions in transport (Mtoe) Gas/diesel oil Gasoline Kerosene type jet fuel other petroleum products Natural gas Biofuels Electrical energy 41,7 41,8 39,5 38,7 40,1 39,5 39,1 Renewables consumptions in transport according to Renewable Energy Directive accounting rules (Mtoe) Elettricità Ren. Elec. FER in su road strada transport Elettricità Ren. Elec. FER in su rail rotaia transport Biocarburanti Double counting Double Biofuels Counting 1,7 1,8 2,0 1,7 1,7 Elettricità Ren. Elec. FER in in all altri other modi transport modes Biocarburanti Single counting Single Biofuels Counting 2,1 2,4 2, * *preliminary data Energy consumptions in rail transport in 2016 (Mtoe) 0,47 0,02 Gas/diesel oil Electrical energy 3
4 Renewables in Transport Sector in Europe Data in Mtoe Danimarca Denmark Netherlands Paesi Bassi Portogallo Portugal Romania Czech Repubblica Republic Ceca Belgium Belgio Poland Polonia Austria United Regno Kingdom Unito Spagna Spain Italy Italia Sweden Svezia Germany Germania France Francia 0,5 0,5 0,7 1,1 1,3 1,4 1,6 Biocarburanti double counting (no moltipl.) Double counting Biofuels Biocarburanti single counting (no moltipl.) Single counting Biofuels Ren. Elec. in all other transport modes Elettricità rinn. altra (no moltipl.) Ren. Elec. in rail transport Elettricità rinn. su rotaia (no moltipl.) Ren. Elec. in road transport Elettricità rinn. su strada (no moltipl.) 2,8 3,4-0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4
5 2030 European targets currently under negotiation RENEWABLES Renewable share of gross final energy consumptions (UE Target) EFFICIENCY Primary energy consumption redutions compared to reference scenario (UE target) EMISSIONS Greenhouse gas emission reduction compared to 1990 (UE target) European parliament proposed to increase 2030 target set by EU Council draft, up to 35 % of RES share and -35% efficiency target. 5
6 Renewables and energy efficiency in National Energy Strategy (NES ) Reference scenario 2030 NES % on total consumption 17,5% 22% +7% 28% More ambitious target than EU target proposed by Council RENEWABLES 55% % on electricty consumption 33,5% 38% +17% Electrification of final consumtions ENERGY EFFICIENCY Energy consumption (Mtoe) Redution of energy dependency and energy expenditure 6
7 Energy efficiency national targets Energy saving targets for 2020 and 2030: breakdown among sectors [Mtoe] 139 Final energy consumtion scenarios [Mtoe] 180 Reference scenario Policy scenario 122,5 5, reference scenarios Target policy savings scenarios per sector [Mtoe] Residential 1,2 116 Services Industry 2,6 Transport
8 Transport energy demand scenario (PRIMES model) [2000=100] Transport sector Reference scenario Rail transport Reference scenario 120% 120% 110% 341,5 Mtoe 110% 0,56 Mtoe 8,6 Mtoe 90% 37,7 Mtoe 90% 80% % Transport sector EUCO3030 scenario Rail transport EUCO3030 scenario 120% 110% 90% 80% ,6 Mtoe 35,7 Mtoe 105% 115% 85% 95% EU 28 Italy 8 120% 110% 90% 80% ,59 Mtoe 8,9 Mtoe
9 Past and future of energy policies on renewables RES share of Gross final consumption of energy: statistics, and targets for year 2020 and 2030 (National Energy Strategy) Quota RES share FER settore in electricity elettrico55,0% sector Quota RES share FER settore 34,0% in heating termico sector 30,0% 28,0% 18,9% 16,1% Quota RES share FER obiettivo 17,4% in transport 17% 5,7% 7,2% 10% trasporti 20,5% sector 6,3% 1,2% Quota Overall FER RES totale share Obiettivi National UE 2020 per l Italia target al 2020 * 34,0%, Obiettivi National 2030 della SEN target al 2030, 55,0% 30,0% 28,0% 16,1% 18,9% 17,4% 17% 10% 20,5% 6,3% 7,2% 5,7% 1,2%
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