NBA Schedule/Log. The KillerSports.com. Featuring the SDQL! Complete Annotated Team Schedules. 300 Perfect Team Trends!

Transcription

1 The KillerSports.com NBA Schedule/Log Featuring the SDQL! Complete Annotated Team Schedules Back-to-Back Road Games Opponents on Long Road Trips Opponent Playing 4th Game in 5 Days 300 Perfect Team Trends! Ten for Every Team Complete Analysis of Difficulty of Schedule Back-to-Back Road Games Four-Games-in-Five-Days Opponent on Long Road Trips Rest vs No Rest Match-ups

2 CONTENTS 3 Quick SDQL Overview 4 Back-to-Back Road Games Rest vs No Rest and No Rest vs Rest 9 Playing Four Games In Five Days 10 Opponents on Long Road Trips Team Trends Section 42 SportsBook Breakers NCAA Study 44 Key Player OU Trends 45 NCAA Basketball Trends 46 SportsBook Breakers NBA System Team Schedule Section 2

3 QUICK SDQL OVERVIEW SDQL stands for Sports Data Query Language. It is a new language that allows the investigation of past sports results over the internet using your home computer. It is easy, it is fast and it is free. If you can perform a search on Google, you can query the past results of professional sports games. Like the Google search, there is a text query box in which you enter what you would like to search. Unlike Google, the search has to be specific and you must use the Sports Data Query Language. The advantage of the SDQL is that you get one hit, which is exactly what you asked for not a billion hits, most of which are not what you are looking for. For example, if you want to see the results for all road favorites in the NBA since (the start of the database), simply enter: AF query into the query text box and then click on the query button. It is as simple as that! There are SDQL query text boxes at many internet sites. The most developed is currently at: killersports.com/nba.py/query To see all the NBA games in which a team shot less than 40% from the field and won the game, enter FGP<40 and W query That s it! The SDQL allows access to billions of situations that are of interest to sports historians, the sports media, fantasy league participants and serious sports bettors. The ability to quickly and efficiently interrogate historical data in the NBA (as well as the NFL, NHL, MLB and NCAA football and basketball) will provide the SDQL user a terrific advantage over those that just pore over box scores and read other people s interpretations of the results. Perhaps the best way to grasp the SDQL is to simply try the hundreds of examples in the trends section of book using query page. Basically, there are only a couple of key ideas that will get you well on your way to becoming an SDQL master. The first is that a query consists of a number of conditions separated by the word and. The second is grasping the difference between the team and the opponent. In sports, there are two combatants. To distinguish between them, SDQL calls one of these the team and the other the opponent. This allows access to results based on both the performance of the team and the performance of their opponent. For example, we can see how a team performs when they score at least 100 points and we can see how a team performs when their opponent scores at least 100 points. For example, to see how the Heat perform in games in which they scored at least 100 points, use: team = Heat and points>=100 query When this query is run, the computer responds with a records summary and a game listing of all the games since 1995 in which the Heat scored at least 100 points. To see how the Heat perform in games in which they allowed at least 100 points, use: team = Heat and o:points>=100 query The o: prefix on the points parameter directs it to the opponent rather than the team. To see how the Heat perform in games AFTER they scored at least 100 points, use: team = Heat and p:points>=100 query Here, the p: prefix on the points directs the parameter to the team s previous game. Each one of these queries has two SDQL phrases. The first defines the team and the second gives a condition. There is no limit to the number of SDQL phrases that can be strung together with the word and. That s it. This is the basic structure of the SDQL. This structure will allow the thorough interrogation and investigation of historical sports data. Understanding this structure is the key to understanding the SDQL. Once you have a grasp of this structure, you will be able to perform your own investigations. Start by trying the many examples in this book. If you have any questions about the SDQL, address them to the sportsdatabase. com discussion group at: This group is monitored by numerous SDQL masters who will be able to be able to address all your well-posed questions. Happy Hunting! killersports.com/nba.py/query NBA Schedule Log 3

4 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAMES In all the major professional team sports, the back-to-back road games in the NBA might be the most physically grueling. In the NFL, there are different players for offense and defense and the NFL plays sixteen regular season games a year. In the NBA, there are usually 82 regular season games and the players must play both defense and offense. Unlike other sports, the line for the side on the game is adjusted when one team in unrested and the other is not. That is, the NBA is the only major sport that adjusts the lines for a fatigue factor. Let s investigate this further. To start, we present the following three query results with their associated Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) text: SDQL: A SU: (-3.26 pts, 39.5%) ATS: (+0.08 pts) avg line: +3.3 SDQL: rest>0 and A SU: (-2.82 pts, 40.6%) ATS: (+0.24 pts) avg line: +3.1 SDQL: A and p:a and rest=0 SU: (-3.87 pts, 38.2%) ATS: (+0.02 pts) avg line: +3.9 The first query, A, (A means the away team) gives the results of all road teams since Here we see that the road team has a record of ,297, which is 39.5% winners. We also see that they have been a 3.3 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of 3.26 ppg. The second query, A and rest>0, gives the results of all road teams since in which the road team did not play the day before. Here we see that the rested road team is straight up, which is 40.6 % winners. We also see that they have been a 3.1 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of only 2.82 ppg. The third query, A and rest=0 and p:a, gives the results of all road games since in which the road team played on the road the day before. Here we see that road teams that played on the road yesterday are , which is 38.2% winners. Also, we see that they have been a 3.9 point underdog on the average and we see that they have lost by an average of 3.87 ppg. So, unless the schedule-makers assign more back-to-back games to teams that are expected to be poor, the results indicate that NBA teams are negatively affected when playing on the road with no rest. Specifically, since the start of the NBA season, road teams with rest have lost by an average of 2.8 ppg and teams playing the second of back-to-back road games have lost by an average of 3.9 ppg. Further, the linesmakers have attempted to correct for this, as teams playing the second of back-to-back road games have been getting an average of 3.9 points whereas rested road teams have only been given an average of 3.1 points. This season there are 213 back-to-back road games which are distributed among the 30 NBA teams. Some teams have been saddled with a large number of back-to-back road games and others have only a few. We can also look at the number of times a team is hosting an opponent that is playing in the second of B2B road games. Clearly, if a particular team hosts a large number of opponents coming in off another road game the previous night that team has an advantage. The number of times a team plays and hosts the second of back-to-back road games are important factors in determining the difficulty of a team s schedule and thus an important factor in estimating the number of wins they will have over the season. To aid in this investigation, we present a table on the next page that gives the number of B2B occurrences for each team for the upcoming season for two situations; one is when the team is playing its second road game in two days and the other is when the team is hosting an opponent that is playing its second road game in two days. Chicago Bulls Finishing Up a Road Trip The Bulls are 19-0 ATS (+8.92 ppg) since 2001 in the last game of at least a three game road trip vs a Western conference opponent, as long as they are not on a three-plus game winning streak. The SDQL text is: team = Bulls and o:conference=western and A and p:a and pp:a and n:h and streak<3 and season>=2001 Check out the complete game listing for this trend by running the SDQL at: 4

5 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAMES # of Back-to-Back Road Games Team Playing Hosting Differential ATL BOS BRK CHA CHI CLE DAL DEN DET GSW HOU IND LAC LAL MEM MIA MIL MIN NOR NYK OKC ORL PHI PHO POR SAC SAN TOR UTH WAS Looking down the first column we see that there are seven NBA teams that have to play double-digit back-to-back road games in The Suns, Magic and Lakers all have to play eleven road games in which they played on the road the day before and the Clippers, Hornets, Blazers and Kings each have to play ten. On the other end of the list, we find that the Hawks only have to play two back-to-back road games this season. Also, the Bobcats, Bulls, Pacers and Bucks only have to play four. Moving to the next column, we find the number of times each team hosts an opponent that has no rest and played on the road last night. Here we have the biggest discrepancy. The Knicks host only two opponents playing the second of back-to-back road games all season, whereas the Blazers get a whopping 14 such opponents. Other teams that host a lot of opponents playing the second of back-to-back road games include the Clippers with 13, the Grizzlies with 11 and the Spurs with 10. Probing a little further, we see that of the Spurs 10 opponents that are playing the second of back-to-back road games, four played in Dallas the previous night, two played in Oklahoma City, two played in New Orleans and two played in Houston. That is a tough set of games for any team. Other unlucky teams that host a relatively small number of teams playing their second road game in as many days include the Suns and the Kings, each with only four. The final, right-most column in the table gives the difference between the number of times a team hosts the second of B2B road games and the number of times a team plays B2B road games. Clearly, a team with a high positive number has a scheduling advantage and a team with a high negative number has a scheduling disadvantage. The three teams with the highest positive differential are the Blazers, Kings and Grizzlies, each with a differential of plus-four. They are followed by the Clippers, Bulls, Hawks, Pistons and Spurs each with a differential of plus-three. The team with the worst B2B differential this season is the Suns at minus-seven. They play eleven back-to-back road games, but host only four. They are followed by the Kings at minus six and the Knicks, Lakers and Magic, all at minus four. The article on the next two pages gives a complete listing of all the back-to-back road games that each NBA team both plays and hosts for the upcoming NBA season. Play Smart. Play Informed. Investigate Back-to-Back road games at KillerSports.com using the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL). Hawks in Second of Back-to-Back The Hawks are 11-0 ATS (+9.45 ppg) when playing the second of back-to-back road games after winning the first, as long as they are not playing in Denver. The SDQL text is: A and p:a and p:w and rest = 0 and team = Hawks and o:team!=nuggets and season>= NBA Schedule Log 5

6 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAMES PLAYING The table below gives a complete listing of all the dates when a team is playing the second of Back-to-Back road games over the entire NBA season. The team in the left-most column is the team playing the Back-to-Back road game. The entries in the table give the date and opponent. For example, on 2/12 the Hawks face the Raptors in Toronto having played on the road the previous night. The level of opponent is important when determining the advantage of hosting a Back-to-Back road game. For example, on 12/8 the Pistons are playing the second of back-to-back road games in Miami. This is a game that the Heat were probably going to win anyway. The situations where hosting a back-to-back road game is helpful is when the scheduling advantage is likely to be enough to turn a loss into a win. For example, on 2/22 the Kings host the Celtics when Boston played the Lakers in LA the night before. This might give Sacramento the edge they need to win a game that the otherwise might have lost. When playing season win totals in the NBA the back-to-back numbers should be taken into account. Team ATL 2/12 TOR 3/8 LAC BOS 11/4 MEM 11/9 MIA 11/20 SAN 1/8 LAC 1/11 POR 1/22 WAS 2/22 SAC 3/17 DAL BRK 11/16 LAC 11/30 MEM 2/23 LAL 2/27 DEN 3/24 NOR 4/9 ORL CHA 1/2 POR 1/11 CHI 2/1 PHO 3/3 MIA CHI 11/22 POR 11/25 UTH 12/19 OKC 2/4 PHO CLE 11/2 IND 11/23 SAN 12/14 MIA 1/15 POR DAL 11/9 MIL 11/16 ORL 2/12 IND 2/22 DET 3/12 UTH 4/4 LAL DEN 12/4 CLE 12/7 PHI 12/28 MEM 2/8 DET 2/21 CHI 3/10 CHA 3/15 ATL DET 11/12 GST 12/4 MIL 12/28 WAS 1/8 TOR 3/22 LAC GSW 1/9 MEM 11/27 DAL 12/7 MEM 1/3 ATL 1/8 BRK 1/18 NOR 3/5 BOS 4/2 SAN HOU 11/5 POR 11/14 NYK 12/13 GST 12/21 DET 1/11 WAS 2/20 GST 2/26 LAC 4/2 TOR 4/9 DEN - - IND 12/2 POR 12/8 OKC 1/25 DEN 3/15 DET LAC 11/7 MIA 11/21 OKC 12/5 MEM 12/12 BRK 12/26 POR 1/4 SAN 1/18 IND 1/25 TOR 2/24 NOR 3/27 DAL - LAL 11/8 NOR 11/27 BRK 12/14 CHA 12/17 MEM 1/8 HOU 1/20 CHI 1/24 ORL 2/5 CLE 2/26 MEM 3/14 SAN 3/28 MIN MEM 11/18 LAC 1/3 DEN 1/29 SAC 2/9 CLE 3/15 PHI 3/31 DEN 4/14 PHO MIA 12/8 DET 12/28 POR 1/10 BRK 1/18 CHA 2/12 GST 3/19 BOS 3/29 MIL MIL 11/13 ORL 1/19 SAN 2/1 MEM 3/24 LAC MIN 11/4 CLE 11/11 LAC 12/1 OKC 12/16 BOS 1/25 POR 2/23 POR 3/20 HOU 4/5 ORL 4/14 GST - - NOR 11/13 UTH 12/2 CHI 12/18 LAC 1/4 IND 1/29 MIN 2/10 TOR 2/22 WAS 3/1 LAC 3/4 LAL 4/12 HOU - NYK 1/3 HOU 2/19 NOR 2/22 ATL 3/3 DET 3/26 SAC 3/31 UTH OKC 11/14 GST 12/4 POR 12/11 MEM 1/25 PHI 2/1 WAS 3/21 TOR 4/9 LAC 4/14 NOR ORL 10/30 MIN 12/3 PHI 12/9 MEM 12/16 CHI 1/11 DEN 1/29 TOR 2/3 IND 2/19 CLE 2/26 PHI 3/19 PHO 3/23 LAL PHI 11/16 NOR 12/29 LAL 1/2 SAC 2/10 GST 4/12 CHA PHO 11/6 SAN 11/25 MIA 12/4 HOU 1/8 MIN 1/11 DET 1/27 PHI 1/30 IND 3/10 LAC 3/17 BRK 3/24 ATL 4/12 DAL POR 11/18 BRK 12/15 DET 12/18 MIN 12/31 OKC 1/18 DAL 1/21 OKC 2/8 MIN 3/12 SAN 3/25 ORL 3/28 CHI - SAC 11/24 LAL 12/18 ATL 12/21 ORL 1/15 MIN 1/22 HOU 2/1 SAN 2/12 NYK 3/12 PHI 3/16 MIN 3/29 DAL - SAN 11/2 POR 11/11 PHI 12/11 MIL 12/19 GST 2/6 BRK 2/19 POR 3/22 GST TOR 11/2 MIL 12/23 SAN 2/1 POR 3/10 BRK 3/19 NOR 3/26 BOS 3/31 MIA UTH 11/6 BOS 11/9 TOR 12/21 CHA 1/18 MIN 3/3 MIL 3/8 PHI 3/17 HOU WAS 11/13 SAN 1/8 NOR 1/25 UTH 1/29 LAC 2/12 HOU 3/21 LAL By scanning each team s back-to-back road games this season both quantity and opponent the astute handicapper can estimate the deleterious effect the back-to-back road games might have on their win-loss record for the season. To query on historical results when a team is playing the second of back-to-back road games, use, for example: A and p:a and rest =0 and team=heat The table on the next page gives the games in which each team is hosting an opponent that is playing the second of Back-to-Back road games. 6

7 BACK-TO-BACK ROAD GAMES HOSTING The table below gives a complete listing of all the dates when a team is hosting the second of Back-to-Back road games over the entire NBA season. This information is exactly the same that is in the previous table but it is organized differently. Here it is advantageous to have a large number of games. The team in the left-most column is the team hosting the Back-to-Back road game. The entries in the table give the date and opponent. For example, on 12/18 the Hawks host the Kings and the Kings played on the road the previous day. Note that the Trailblazers host FOURTEEN back-to-back road games this season; tops in the league while the Knicks have only TWO such opponents. Again, by scanning each team s games when they are hosting an opponent that is playing the second of back-toback road games this season both quantity and opponent the astute handicapper can estimate the effect the games might have on their win-loss record for the season. Team ATL 12/18 SAC 1/3 GST 2/22 NYK 3/15 DEN 3/24 PHO BOS 11/6 UTH 12/16 MIN 3/5 GST 3/19 MIA 3/26 TOR BRK 11/18 POR 11/27 LAL 12/12 LAC 1/8 GST 1/10 MIA 2/6 SAN 3/10 TOR 3/17 PHO CHA 12/14 LAL 12/21 UTH 1/18 MIA 3/10 DEN 4/12 PHI CHI 12/2 NOR 12/16 ORL 1/11 CHA 1/20 LAL 2/21 DEN 3/28 POR 4/14 ORL CLE 11/4 MIN 12/4 DEN 2/5 LAL 2/9 MEM 2/19 ORL DAL 11/27 GST 1/18 POR 3/17 BOS 3/27 LAC 3/29 SAC 4/12 PHO DEN 1/3 MEM 1/11 ORL 1/25 IND 2/27 BRK 3/31 MEM 4/9 HOU DET 12/8 MIA 12/15 POR 12/21 HOU 1/11 PHO 2/8 DEN 2/22 DAL 3/3 NYK 3/15 IND GSW 11/12 DET 11/14 OKC 12/13 HOU 12/19 SAN 2/10 PHI 2/12 MIA 2/20 HOU 3/22 SAN 4/14 MIN HOU 12/4 PHO 1/3 NYK 1/8 LAL 1/22 SAC 2/12 WAS 3/17 UTH 3/20 MIN 4/12 NOR IND 11/2 CLE 1/4 NOR 1/18 LAC 1/30 PHO 2/3 ORL 2/12 DAL LAC 11/11 MIN 11/16 BRK 11/18 MEM 12/18 NOR 1/8 BOS 1/29 WAS 2/26 HOU 3/1 NOR 3/8 ATL 3/10 PHO 3/22 DET 3/24 MIL 4/9 OKC - LAL 11/24 SAC 12/29 PHI 2/23 BRK 3/4 NOR 3/21 WAS 3/23 ORL 4/4 DAL MEM 11/4 BOS 11/9 GST 11/30 BRK 12/5 LAC 12/7 GST 12/9 ORL 12/11 OKC 12/17 LAL 12/28 DEN 2/1 MIL 2/26 LAL MIA 11/7 LAC 11/9 BOS 11/25 PHO 12/14 CLE 3/3 CHA 3/31 TOR MIL 11/2 TOR 11/9 DAL 12/4 DET 12/11 SAN 3/3 UTH 3/29 MIA MIN 10/30 ORL 12/18 POR 1/8 PHO 1/15 SAC 1/18 UTH 1/29 NOR 2/8 POR 3/16 SAC 3/28 LAL NOR 11/8 LAL 11/16 PHI 1/8 WAS 1/18 GST 2/19 NYK 2/24 LAC 3/19 TOR 3/24 BRK 4/14 OKC NYK 11/14 HOU 2/12 SAC OKC 11/21 LAC 12/1 MIN 12/8 IND 12/19 CHI 12/31 POR 1/21 POR ORL 11/13 MIL 11/16 DAL 12/21 SAC 1/24 LAL 3/25 POR 4/5 MIN 4/9 BRK PHI 11/11 SAN 12/3 ORL 12/7 DEN 1/25 OKC 1/27 PHO 2/26 ORL 3/8 UTH 3/12 SAC 3/15 MEM PHO 2/1 CHA 2/4 CHI 3/19 ORL 4/14 MEM POR 11/2 SAN 11/5 HOU 11/22 CHI 12/2 IND 12/4 OKC 12/26 LAC 12/28 MIA 1/2 CHA 1/11 BOS 1//15 CLE 1/25 MIN 2/1 TOR 2/19 SAN 2/23 MIN SAC 1/2 PHI 1/29 MEM 2/22 BOS 3/26 NYK SAN 11/6 PHO 11/13 WAS 11/20 BOS 11/23 CLE 12/23 TOR 1/4 LAC 1/19 MIL 2/1 SAC 3/12 POR 3/14 LAL 4/2 GST TOR 11/9 UTH 1/8 DET 1/25 LAC 1/29 ORL 2/10 NOR 2/12 ATL 3/21 OKC 4/2 HOU UTH 11/13 NOR 11/25 CHI 1/25 WAS 3/12 DAL 3/31 NYK WAS 12/28 DET 1/11 HOU 1/22 BOS 2/1 OKC 2/22 NOR Note: To query the situation where a team is hosting a second of back-to-back road games, and see past results in this situation, use the following SDQL text: H and op:a and o:rest=0 Happy hunting! For more scheduling advantages and disadvantages, see the next article which gives the number of times each team plays Rest vs No Rest and No Rest vs Rest games NBA Schedule Log 7

8 REST VS NO REST AND NO REST VS REST Of the 1230 NBA games this season, 344 feature a rested team vs an unrested team. This makes the rest combination an important factor when handicapping NBA basketball. A team with at least one days rest has a definite advantage over a team that played the previous night. Young, well-disciplined teams often can perform well even though they played the previous night whereas older teams tend to struggle when playing their second game in two days especially if a long trip is involved. Of course, the number of these no rest vs rest games is determined when the schedule is finalized. The table to the right gives the number of occurrences of the rest vs no rest (R v NR) and no rest vs rest (NR v R) for each of the 30 NBA teams over the NBA regular season. The +/- R vs NR column on the far right gives the difference between the R v NR and NR v R columns. A high positive number indicates a favorable schedule and a high negative number indicates an unfavorable schedule. First, let s look at the Rest vs No Rest numbers. The Clippers have the greatest number of Rest vs No Rest games in with a staggering 25. Last season, the Mavs had the most rest vs no rest games in the league with 19. In the history of the database, no team has ever played more than 21 regular season games with rest vs an unrested opponent. So, the Clippers windfall in this scheduling spot in is indeed very rare. Next we have the Warriors with 19, the Bulls with 17 and the Blazers with 16. On the unfortunate end of the spectrum with find the Bobcats who are scheduled to play only FIVE games this season with rest vs an unrested foe. The Wizards have only six and both the Heat and the Knicks have seven. In the No Rest vs Rest column we find the Lakers, Kings, Nets and Clippers have to play 16 games this season with no rest vs an unrested foe -- most in the league. Also getting unfortunate schedules are the Thunder with 14 and the Celtics, Timberwolves and Magic each of whom play 13 games this season when they played the day before and their opponent did not. Now let s check out the difference column. Here the number of times a team is playing a no rest vs rest game is subtracted from the number of times a team is playing a rest vs no rest game. The higher the number, the more favorable the schedule. The Bulls have the highest positive differential at plus eleven. This is followed by the followed by the Clippers at plus nine and the Warriors at plus seven. The Kings and Lakers got the unluckiest schedule with regard to rest-vs-no-rest games, as they have a differential of minus eight. The Wizards are next worst at minus six. These numbers are useful when playing NBA futures, but of course, other factors such as personnel changes can be more important than scheduling. Also, some teams can handle the no rest vs rest combination whereas other struggle. To investigate past records in rest-vs-no-rest games, use the NBA query page at KillerSports. com. Play Smart. Play Informed. Watch the rest combinations. # of Rest Combos Team R vs NR NR vs R +/- R vs NR ATL BOS BRK CHA CHI CLE DAL DEN DET GSW HOU IND LAC LAL MEM MIA MIL MIN NOR NYK OKC ORL PHI PHO POR SAC SAN TOR NBA Through : Rest vs No Rest, Overall, Home, Away W/L record Winning % Avg SUm ATS Rec Avg ATSm Avg Line Overall % (+3.17 ppg) (+0.4 pts) -2.8 pts Home % (+4.50 ppg) (+0.3 pts) -4.2 pts Away % (-1.41 ppg) (+0.8 pts) +2.2 pts 8

9 PLAYING FOUR GAMES IN FIVE DAYS One of many interesting scheduling situations in the NBA is the 4-games-in-5-days situation. Usually, it consists of a set of back-to back games, a day off and another set of back-to-back games. However, in strike years, when the season is compressed, a four-game-in-five-days stretch can include a game, a days rest and then three games in three days. Similarly, there can be three straight games, a day off and then another game. This season there are 63 occurrences of a team playing four games in five days and all of them are the normal type, which is two games in two days, a day off and then another set of two games in two days. The handicapper can theorize that the performance of a team playing their fourth game in five days may be compromised because of the scheduling situation. Put simply, the team is tired. The obvious questions an intelligent handicapper will have regarding the four games in five days situation include, Is the likelihood of a team winning the game reduced by the fact that they are playing their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? Is the likelihood of a team covering the spread reduced by the fact that they are playing their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? Is the line adjusted for the fact that a team is playing their fourth game in five days? If so, by how much? All of these questions can be thoroughly investigated over the internet with the Sports Data Query Language. Now let s take a look at all the 4-in-5 situations scheduled for the upcoming season. The schedule-makers assign the four-in-five situation as necessary without regard to an equitable distribution amongst the 30 NBA teams. If a team has a relatively small number of four-in-five situations it is an advantage and if a team hosts a relatively large number of opponents that are playing their fourth game in five days it is an advantage. Of course, if a team plays a large number of 4-in-5 situations and faces a small number of teams playing their fourth game in five days it is a scheduling disadvantage. This information is especially useful when playing NBA futures because a team with a scheduling advantage in 4-in-5 situations can be expected to win more games than the linesmakers forecast and teams with a scheduling disadvantage can be expected to win fewer games than forecast. The adjacent table gives the number of occurrences of the fourthgames-in-five-days scheduling situation over the season for each team and their opponent. The first column simply gives the team name. The second column gives the number of occurrences of a four-games-in-five-days scheduling situation for each team. For example, we can see that the Hawks play four games this season that are their fourth game in five days. The third column gives the number of times each team faces an opponent that is playing their fourth game in five days. For example, we see that the Hawks get SIX opponents this season who are playing their fourth game in five days. The fourth column gives the difference between the two with the higher number indicating a more favorable schedule. This season, the 76ers are the only team in the league that plays ZERO sequences of 4-in-5 days and the Cavs, Spurs, Kings and Warriors don t face any opponents who are playing their fourth game in five days. The Knicks, Bucks and Hawks all play four sets of four-gamesin-five-days, most in the league. In the third column, we see that the Hawks host six opponents that are playing the last game of a four-in-five set and the Sixers are right behind them with five such foes. The final column gives the net difference between playing and hosting a stretch of 4-games-in-5-days. The 76ers have the highest positive differential at plus-five and there are seven teams with the worst differential at minus-two. As the results come in for this and other scheduling situations presented in this book, astute handicappers will be able to see which teams are affected most by various scheduling situations. The Sports Data Query Language allows a complete investigation of these situations over the internet for free. Don t miss out on any of it, get on KillerSports.com and research the NBA like a professional. For more information, visit KillerSports.com # of 4-Games-in-5 Days TEAM #4-in-5 #Opp 4-in-5 +/- ATL BOS BRK CHA CHI CLE DAL DEN DET GSW HOU IND LAC LAL MEM MIA MIL MIN NOR NYK OKC ORL PHI PHO POR SAC SAN TOR UTH WAS NBA Schedule Log 9

10 OPPONENTS ON LONG ROAD TRIPS When the league made the NBA schedule, it had to arrange 41 home games and 41 road games for each team. The result is 82 regular season games that contain numerous homestands and road trips. The number of consecutive road games a team must play over the entire season does not vary greatly from team to team because of the constraint that each team must have 41 home games and 41 road games. There are no such restrictions, however, on the number of times a team hosts an opponent that is playing in at least their third straight away game. Theoretically, a team can face an opponent that is playing in at least their third straight road game in all 41 of their home games. This season, the average number of times a team will face an opponent that is playing in at least their third straight road game is 9.8. Continuing, the average number of times a team will face an opponent that is playing in at least their fourth straight road game is 4.57 and the average number of times a team will face an opponent that is playing in at least their fifth straight road game is Of course, due to the vagaries of the schedule, some teams get a lot more than average and other a lot fewer than the league average. The interesting feature to NBA futures bettors is how many times each team hosts an opponent that is playing in at least their third straight road game. The accompanying table shows just that. The first column gives the name of the team, the second column gives the number of times each team is hosting an opponent that is playing in AT LEAST their third straight road game. The third column gives the number of times each team is hosting an opponent that is playing in AT LEAST their fourth straight road game. And, finally, the last column gives the number of times each team is hosting an opponent that is playing in AT LEAST their fifth straight road game. The range in the second column is significant. Both the Clippers and Kings host NINETEEN opponents that are playing in at least their third straight road game highest in the league. This is nearly HALF of their home games. They are followed by the Blazers with fourteen and Nuggets and Warriors each with thirteen. On the unlucky end of the scheduling spectrum, we find the Cavs, with only five games this season in which their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game. They are followed by the Magic and Raptors each with only six opponents that are playing in at least their third straight road game. In the Opp 4+A column we see the discrepancies increase. The Nuggets get ten opponents who are playing in at least their fourth straight road game and -- in the rarefied air of the mile-high city -- the will certainly benefit from this scheduling situation. Note that a complete listing of games where their opponent is playing in at least their third straight away game appears on each team s schedule pages, in the schedule section of this book. Finishing up, we see that the Cavs only get ONE opponent that is playing in at least their fourth straight road game this season and that the Spurs are the only team in the league that does not face a team playing in at least their fifth straight road game. Opp s in 3+ Away; Team Opp 3+ A Opp 4+ A Opp 5+ A ATL BOS BRK CHA CHI CLE DAL DEN DET GSW HOU IND LAC LAL MEM MIA MIL MIN NOR NYK OKC ORL PHI PHO POR SAC SAN TOR UTH WAS AVG The number of times a team hosts an opponent that is playing a long road trip is a factor that should be considered when playing NBA Futures. Play Smart. Play Informed. SDQL Hint To see a team s results (in this case the Thunder s) when facing an opponent who is playing in at least their third straight road game, use the SDQL text: H and op:a and opp:a and team=thunder 10

11 The KillerSports.com NBA Schedule/Log THE TEAM TRENDS There are 300 team trends in the next section ten for each of the thirty NBA teams. Each trend is perfect and each is of the ATS variety. The first five trends for each team are Play-ON trends and the second grouping of five trends are Play- AGAINST trends. The trends are presented in three columns. The first is the trend ID. This allows the trend to be referenced. For example, ATL005 in Atlanta s trend number five. The second column gives the English text of the trend. For example, The Hawks are 18-0 ATS (+7.1 ppg) as a rested favorite after a double-digit road loss in which their DPS was minus 12 points or worse. Note that the number in parentheses immediately following the record is the average margin by which a team has covered or failed to cover the spread. Here, the Hawks are 18-0 ATS, covering by an average of 7.1 points per game. The last column contains the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) text that can be used to see the updated results for the trend anytime, Simply enter the SDQL text into the query box on-line and click the query button run the query. SDQL text boxes are available and SportsDataBase.com, Killer- Sports.com and as well as others sports information websites. No membership or registration is needed and there is no charge to run a query. It s similar to Google. If you can Google, you can SDQL. A complete list of which of the 300 trends are active on a particular day will be available on-line. That s right, very early each morning, after the results from the previous day are entered into the database, the 300 trends will be automatically run and a list of which ones apply to the games that day will be available. For information on how to get access to this listing, visit KillerSports.com. You will be able to click through to the complete game listing for the trend to see if it has had any active dates already in the current season. Sometimes a 10-0 ATS trend goes bad because of a change in team philosophy, player personal or simply because it wasn t a good trend to begin with. Other times the trend can reel off 5, 6 or 7 straight winners. These of course, are the trends you want to follow. With a cursory knowledge of the Sports Data Query Language, you will soon be researching situations of your own choosing NBA Schedule Log 11

12 ATLANTA HAWKS PLAY - ON ATL001 ATL002 ATL003 ATL004 ATL005 The Hawks are 18-0 ATS (+7.1 ppg) as a rested favorite after a double-digit road loss in which their DPS was minus 12 points or worse. The Hawks are 11-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) on the road after a game in which Jeff Teague had at least 4 turnovers, as long as they did not win by more than 8 points. The Hawks are 11-0 ATS (+5.7 ppg) after a double digit loss in which their opponent shot 50%-plus from the arc. The Hawks are 9-0 ATS (+3.7 ppg) on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds. The Hawks are 8-0 ATS (+13.3 ppg) with no rest after a win on the road in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. team=hawks and F and 0<rest and p:margin<=-10 and p:a and p:dps<=-12 A and Hawks:Jeff Teague:p:turnovers>=4 and p:margin<=8 and date>= team=hawks and p:margin<=-10 and po:tpp>=50 and date>= team=hawks and A and 2<=rest and 20<=p:ORB team=hawks and rest=0 and p:w and p:a and p:ptp>30 PLAY - AGAINST ATL006 ATL007 ATL008 ATL009 ATL010 The Hawks are 0-15 ATS (-9.2 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they had at least ten more turnovers than their opponent. The Hawks are 0-13 ATS (-10.1 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Hawks are 0-12 ATS (-12.6 ppg) at home after a game Jeff Teague had more than 8 assists. The Hawks are 0-12 ATS (-7.2 ppg) with rest after a home loss in which they had more turnovers than assists The Hawks are 0-10 ATS (-7.0 ppg) as a rested dog after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line team=hawks and D and p:turnovers - po:turnovers>=10 and date>= team=hawks and rest>=2 and p:fouls<15 and date>= H and Hawks:Jeff Teague:p:assists>8 and date>= team=hawks and 0<rest and p:hl and p:assists<p:turnovers and date>= team=hawks and D and 0<rest and p:ftp<60 and date>=

13 BOSTON CELTICS PLAY - ON BOS001 BOS002 BOS003 BOS004 BOS005 The Celtics are 15-0 ATS (+9.0 ppg) as a dog after a home game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least 47.5% of them. The Celtics are 12-0 ATS (+11.7 ppg) with rest off a home win when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Celtics are 11-0 ATS (+8.9 ppg) as a road dog after a loss on the road in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Celtics are 11-0 ATS (+7.7 ppg) as a rested road dog after a loss in which they held their opponent to 40% or less shooting. The Celtics are 9-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) at home after a loss in which Rajon Rondo played fewer than 30 minutes. team=celtics and D and p:h and po:tpa>=10 and po:tpp>47.5 and date>= t:team=celtics and 0<rest and p:hw and op:overtime>0 and season>=2006 team=celtics and AD and p:al and p:to * 2<=p:assists and date>= team=celtics and AD and 0<rest and p:l and po:fgp<=40 and date>= H and 0<Celtics:Rajon Rondo:p:minutes<30 and p:l and date>= PLAY - AGAINST BOS006 BOS007 BOS008 BOS009 BOS010 The Celtics are 0-21 ATS (-9.5 ppg) at home after a win in which Rajon Rondo shot better than 63% from the field. The Celtics are 0-14 ATS (-8.0 ppg) after a loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four. The Celtics are 0-14 ATS (-10.8 ppg) at home off a win in which they never trailed The Celtics are 0-11 ATS (-9.9 ppg) on the road after a home game in which Rajon Rondo shot worse than 33% from the field. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-9.8 ppg) as a road favorite with at most one day of rest after a home win in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted H and Celtics:Rajon Rondo:p:FGP > 63 and p:w and date>= team=celtics and p:l and p:fga/p:to<4.0 and date>= team=celtics and H and po:bl=0 and date>= team=celtics and A and Celtics:Rajon Rondo:p:FGP<33 and p:h and date>= team=celtics and AF and rest<2 and p:hw and p:assists*1.0 / p:fgm > NBA Schedule Log 13

14 BROOKLYN NETS PLAY - ON NJN001 NJN002 NJN003 NJN004 The Nets are 11-0 ATS (+7.6 ppg) as a road dog with no rest after a win after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Nets are 9-0 ATS (+5.7 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest when they have won and covered their last four games. The Nets are 8-0 ATS (+6.4 ppg) with rest after a home game in which more than 73% of their baskets were assisted. The Nets are 7-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) as a road dog off an overtime win. NJN005 The Nets are 7-0 ATS (+7.2 ppg) as a rested dog off a home loss by fewer than five points in which they trailed by double digits. team=nets and AD and rest=0 and p:w and p:fgp<40 team=nets and F and rest<2 and ats streak>=4 and streak>=4 and season>=2003 t:team=nets and 0<rest and p:h and p:assists / p:field goals made>0.73 and date>= team=nets and AD and 0<p:overtime and p:w and season>=2010 team=nets and D and 0<rest and -5<p:margin<0 and po:bl>=10 and p:h and date>= PLAY - AGAINST NJN006 NJN007 The Nets are 0-17 ATS (-8.6 ppg) as a rest home dog by more than a point after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Nets are 0-11 ATS (-9.41 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. NJN008 The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-8.1 ppg) at home with rest after a double-digit road loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. NJN009 NJN010 The Nets are 0-9 ATS (-5.3 ppg) when playing in at least their third straight road game and they have no rest The Nets are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) at home after a home loss in which Deron Williams was the Nets high scorer. team=nets and H and 1<line and 0<rest and p:l and po:fgm<p:fgm and date>= t:team=nets and 0<rest and p:margin<=-10 and p:h and p:fga/p:to>=8.0 and season>=2006 t:team=nets and H and 0<rest and p:margin<=-10 and p:al and p:ftm/p:points<0.15 and season>=2008 team=nets and A and p:a and pp:a and rest=0 and date>= Nets:Deron Williams:p:points==max:p:points and H and p:hl and date>=

15 CHARLOTTE BOBCATS PLAY - ON CHA001 CHA002 CHA003 CHA004 CHA005 The Bobcats are 10-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) on the road with rest after a double-digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was more than eight. The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS (+8.1 ppg) on the road after a game in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent. The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot less than 35% from the field. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (+11.2 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a home win in which they trailed by double digits at the end of the first quarter. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (+8.2 ppg) at home after a double-digit win in which they blocked at least 10 shots. team=bobcats and A and 0<rest and p:margin<=-10 and p:fga/p:to>8 team=bobcats and A and po:fga-p:fga>=15 and season>=2008 team=bobcats and rest>=2 and p:fgp<35 and date>= team=bobcats and rest<2 and p:hw and p:m1<=- 10 team=bobcats and H and p:margin>=10 and p:blocks>=10 and season>=2005 PLAY AGAINST CHA006 CHA007 The Bobcats are 0-13 ATS (-14.2 ppg) as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the threepoint line. The Bobcats are 0-11 ATS (-8.3 ppg) as a dog when playing their fourth game in five days. CHA008 The Bobcats are 0-11 ATS (-9.7 ppg) as a rested dog after a road game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. CHA009 CHA010 The Bobcats are 0-11 ATS (-9.3 ppg) at home after at least four road losses. The Bobcats are 0-9 ATS (-11.6 ppg) in franchise history after a loss in which Kemba Walker scored 10-plus points and had more turnovers than assists. team=bobcats and AD and rest<2 and p:l and 3*p:TPM/p:points<0.10 and date>= team=bobcats and D and rest + p:rest + pp:rest<=1 and date>= team=bobcats and D and 0<rest and p:a and po:fgp<40 team=bobcats and H and p:al and pp:al and ppp:al and pppp:al Bobcats:Kemba Walker:p:assists<Bobcats:Kemba Walker:p:TO and Bobcats:Kemba Walker:p:points>=10 and p:l NBA Schedule Log 15

16 CHICAGO BULLS PLAY - ON CHI001 CHI002 CHI003 CHI004 CHI005 The Bulls are 15-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a game that was decided by four points or fewer in which they held a double digit lead as a favorite. The Bulls are 14-0 ATS (+11.7 ppg) with rest after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Bulls are 14-0 ATS (+11.6 ppg) as a favorite with no rest after a loss after a game in which they scored less than 12% of their points from the three-point line. The Bulls are 13-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) at home after a home loss in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Bulls are 9-0 ATS (+12.0 ppg) after a home loss in which Joakim Noah shot worse than 33% from the field. team=bulls and rest<2 and p:bl>=10 and -4<=p:margin<=4 and p:f and season>=2010 team=bulls and 0<rest and p:assists / p:fgm <0.45 and date>= t:team=bulls and F and rest=0 and p:l and 3 * p:tpm / p:points < 0.12 and date>= team=bulls and H and p:hl and po:blocks>=10 and season>=2000 Bulls:Joakim Noah:p:FGP<33 and p:hl and date> PLAY - AGAINST CHI006 CHI007 CHI008 CHI009 CHI010 The Bulls are 0-20 ATS (-9.7 ppg) after a game in which Carlos Boozer scored fewer than 10 points and played for more than 15 minutes. The Bulls are 0-11 ATS (-8.6 ppg) as a home favorite when they covered by double digits two games straight. The Bulls are 0-11 ATS (-11.7 ppg) at home with at least one day of rest after a win after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Bulls are 0-9 ATS (-9.4 ppg) at home after Joakim Noah scored fewer than 10 points on the road. The Bulls are 0-8 ATS (-5.2 ppg) at home after a home game in which Luol Deng was their high scorer. Bulls:Carlos Boozer:p:points < 10 and Bulls:Carlos Boozer:p:minutes > 15 and date>= team=bulls and HF and 10<=tpp:ats margin and 10<=tp:ats margin and date>= team=bulls and H and 0<rest and p:w and p:assists / p:fgm > and date>= team=bulls and H and Bulls:Joakim Noah:p:points<10 and p:a and date>= team=bulls and H and Bulls:Luol Deng:p:points==max:p:points and p:h and date>=

17 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS PLAY - ON CLE001 CLE002 CLE003 CLE004 CLE005 The Cavaliers are 11-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) as a favorite when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Cavaliers are 11-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a eight-plus point win at home in which they shot at least 49% from the field. The Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS (+8.5 ppg) at home with at least one day of rest off an overtime loss. The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) on the road on Saturday after playing on Friday. The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) sin franchise history after a home win in which Alonzo Gee shot 50%-plus from the arc. team=cavaliers and F and p:assists - pp:assists >= 10 and date>= team=cavaliers and HF and rest<2 and p:margin>=8 and p:h and p:fgp>49 and date>= team=cavaliers and H and 0<rest and 0<p:overtime and p:l team=cavaliers and A and day=saturday and p:day=friday and date>= Cavaliers:Alonzo Gee:p:TPP>=50 and p:hw PLAY - AGAINST CLE006 CLE007 CLE008 CLE009 CLE010 The Cavaliers are 0-12 ATS (-7.7 ppg) with no rest after a home game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight The Cavaliers are 0-10 ATS (-9.5 ppg) off a loss as a home favorite in which they led by 10+ points. The Cavaliers are 0-10 ATS (-8.2 ppg) at home off a win as a favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Cavaliers are 0-10 ATS (-11.4 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 35% from the field. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) as a home favorite off a loss as a dog in which they never led. team=cavaliers and rest=0 and p:h and p:fga/ p:to>=8 and date>= team=cavaliers and p:lhf and p:bl>=10 and date>= team=cavaliers and H and p:wf and po:bl>=10 and date>= team=cavaliers and H and rest<2 and p:l and p:fgp<35 and date>= team=cavaliers and HF and p:bl=0 and p:d and date>= NBA Schedule Log 17

18 DALLAS MAVERICKS PLAY - ON DAL001 DAL002 The Mavericks are 14-0 ATS (+6.8 ppg) after an eightplus point loss in which they shot less than 61% from the free-throw line. The Mavericks were 13-0 ATS (+6.5 ppg) last season on the road after a game in which Dirk Nowitzki played but was not their high scorer. DAL003 The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS (+6.4 ppg) with rest after a double digit win in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. DAL004 DAL005 The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS (+6.7 ppg) at home with rest after a win in which they shot more than 18 threepointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Mavericks are 10-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) on the road with at most one day of rest off a loss as an away dog in which they led by 10+ points. team=mavericks and p:margin<=-8 and p:ftp<61 and date>= A and Mavericks:Dirk Nowitzki:p:points<max:p:points and Mavericks:Dirk Nowitzki:p:minutes>0 and season>=2012 team=mavericks and 0<rest and p:margin>=10 and p:assists / p:fgm > 0.75 and season>=2007 team=mavericks and H and 0<rest and p:w and p:tpa>18 and p:tpp<25 and season>=2000 t:team=mavericks and A and rest<2 and p:lad and p:bl>=10 and season>=2006 PLAY - AGAINST DAL006 DAL007 DAL008 DAL009 DAL010 The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-11.9 ppg) with no rest when they have won and covered their last three games, as long as they are not a three-plus point favorite. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-13.9 ppg) with no rest when their DPS was at least plus 15 points in their previous game The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-11.0 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS (-10.9 ppg) after a road win in which Dirk Nowitzki shot better than 50% from the arc. team=mavericks and line>-3 and rest=0 and streak>=3 and ats streak>=3 team=mavericks and rest=0 and p:dps>=15 and date>= team=mavericks and H and p:aw and p:fgp>=47.5 and date>= t:team=mavericks and rest<2 and p:whf and p:m1<0 and p:m2<0 and p:m3<0 and date>= Mavericks:Dirk Nowitzki:p:TPP>50 and p:aw and date>=

19 DENVER NUGGETS PLAY - ON DEN001 DEN002 DEN003 DEN004 DEN005 The Nuggets are 11-0 ATS (+8.2 ppg) as a rested dog after a home loss in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Nuggets are 11-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) after a loss on the road in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds. The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (+8.1 ppg) as a home favorite after a road game in which they shot less than 35% from the field. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (+9.8 ppg) after a road win in which Andre Miller scored fewer than 10 points. team=nuggets and D and 0<rest and p:lh and po:blocks>=10 and date>= team=nuggets and A and rest<2 and p:assists / p:fgm > 0.70 and season>=2008 t:team=nuggets and p:al and p:orb>=20 and season>=2003 team=nuggets and HF and p:a and p:fgp<35 and season>=1998 Nuggets:Andre Miller:p:points<10 and p:aw and season>=2012 PLAY - AGAINST DEN006 DEN007 DEN008 DEN009 DEN010 The Nuggets are 0-16 ATS (-12.7 ppg) with no rest off a loss in which they led by more than eight points, as long as they were not a favorite of more than eight points in that loss. The Nuggets are 0-15 ATS (-14.8 ppg) with no rest after a loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Nuggets are 0-12 ATS (-10.7 ppg) with no rest after a loss on the road in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Nuggets are 0-11 ATS (-9.9 ppg) after a game in which they allowed at least 54% from the field. The Nuggets are 0-10 ATS (-10.6 ppg) when Arron Afflalo shot better than 50% from the arc in each of their last two games. team = Nuggets and rest = 0 and p:l and p:bl>8 and p:line>=-8 and date>= team=nuggets and rest=0 and p:l and p:turnovers - po:steals > 10 and date>= team=nuggets and rest=0 and p:al and p:assists / p:fgm < 0.45 and season>=2005 team=nuggets and po:fgp>=54 and date>= Nuggets:Arron Afflalo:p:TPP>50 and Nuggets:Arron Afflalo:pp:TPP>50 and date>= NBA Schedule Log 19

20 DETROIT PISTONS PLAY - ON DET001 DET002 The Pistons are 11-0 ATS (+8.4 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a home game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Pistons are 11-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) with rest when their DPA was at least plus 13.5 points in their previous game. team=pistons and rest<2 and p:h and p:turnovers<10 and date>= team=pistons and 0<rest and p:dpa>=13.5 and date>= DET003 DET004 DET005 The Pistons are 10-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) as a favorite when seeking same-season revenge for a double-digit ATS loss at home. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS (+7.7 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest after after a home game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) with no rest off a home win that broke at least a three-game losing streak. team=pistons and F and P:ats margin<=-10 and P:season==season and P:H and date>= team=pistons and F and rest<2 and p:h and p:orb<=5 and season>=2001 team=pistons and rest=0 and p:w and p:streak<=-3 and p:h and season>=1999 PLAY - AGAINST DET006 The Pistons are 0-16 ATS (-8.3 ppg) after a road game in which at least 75% of their baskets were assisted. DET007 DET008 DET009 DET010 The Pistons are 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after an eight-plus point loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Pistons are 0-9 (-6.5 ppg) ATS on the road after a road game in which Greg Monroe shot 40% or worse from the field on the road and played 25-plus minutes. The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-10.3 ppg) on the road with no rest after a loss after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-10.4 ppg) at home off a road win in which they trailed by double-digits. team=pistons and p:a and p:assists/p:fgm >= 0.75 and season >= 2004 team=pistons and D and rest<2 and p:margin<=-8 and p:ftp<60 and season>=2005 A and Pistons:Greg Monroe:p:FGP<=40 and p:a and Pistons:Greg Monroe:p:minutes>=25 and date>= team=pistons and A and rest=0 and p:l and p:fgp<40 and season>=2006 team=pistons and H and po:bl>=10 and p:aw and date>=

21 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS PLAY - ON GST001 GST002 GST003 GST004 GST005 The Warriors are 24-0 ATS (+10.3 ppg) when the total is at least twenty points higher than it was last game and they were not a seven-plus point favorite in their last game. The Warriors are 12-0 ATS (+9.1 ppg) as a home dog when facing an Eastern Conference team they lost to as a road dog in their first match-up of the season. The Warriors are 12-0 ATS (+7.3 ppg) with rest off a win as a favorite in which their leading scorer had fewer than 20 points. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (+6.9 ppg) as a road dog off a home win that broke at least a three-game losing streak. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (+11.4 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a loss as an away dog in which they led by more than eight points. team=warriors and total-p:total>=20 and p:line>-7 and <=date team=warriors and HD and o:conference=eastern and P:LAD and P:season=season and season>=2007 team=warriors and 0<rest and p:wf and max:p:points<20 t:team=warriors and AD and p:hw and p:streak<=-3 and season>=2005 team=warriors and rest<2 and p:biggest lead>8 and p:lad and date>= PLAY - AGAINST GST006 GST007 GST008 GST009 GST010 The Warriors are 0-15 ATS (-9.8 ppg) on the road with rest after a win in which they shot better than 46.8% from the field, at least 84% from the free-throw line and at least 22% from the arc. The Warriors are 0-12 ATS (-8.3 ppg) after a eight-plus point win in which they had at least thirty assists. The Warriors are 0-9 ATS (-11.7 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Warriors are 0-8 ATS (-8.6 ppg) after a home game in which David Lee took more than 20 shots. The Warriors are 0-7 ATS (-8.2 ppg) in franchise history on the road when David Lee played more than 40 minutes in their last two games. team=warriors and A and 0<rest and p:w and p:fgp>46.8 and p:ftp>=84 and p:tpp>=22 team=warriors and p:margin>=8 and p:assists>=30 and date>= t:team=warriors and F and p:w and p:ftm/ p:points>0.25 and season>=2007 Warriors:David Lee:p:FGA>20 and p:h and date>= team=warriors and A and 40<Warriors:David Lee:pp:minutes and 40<Warriors:David Lee:p:minutes NBA Schedule Log 21

22 HOUSTON ROCKETS PLAY - ON HOU001 HOU002 HOU003 HOU004 The Rockets are 14-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road dog with no rest after a road game in which they scored more than 23.8% of their points from the free throw line. The Rockets are 12-0 ATS (+8.5 ppg) as a dog after a double-digit loss after a game in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. The Rockets are 12-0 ATS (-8.0 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a road loss by more than five points in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Rockets are 11-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) with no rest after a road game in which they had at least 12 steals HOU005 The Rockets are 10-0 ATS (+7.7 ppg) when their opponent has no rest and is playing in at least their third straight road game. team=rockets and AD and rest=0 and p:a and p:ftm/p:points>0.238 and season>=1999 team=rockets and D and p:margin<=-10 and p:turnovers>=20 and date>= team=rockets and D and rest<2 and p:margin<-5 and p:a and 3 * p:tpm/p:points < 0.10 team=rockets and rest=0 and p:a and p:steals>=12 and season>=1999 team=rockets and o:a and op:a and opp:a and o:rest=0 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST HOU006 HOU007 The Rockets are 0-10 ATS (-7.6 ppg) on the road with no rest after a game in which they allowed more than 48.5% shooting. The Rockets are 0-9 ATS (-6.4 ppg) off a home win in which their leading scorer for the game had fewer than 20 points. HOU008 The Rockets are 0-9 ATS (-7.5 ppg) as a rested favorite after a road game in which 40% or less of their baskets were assisted. HOU009 HOU010 The Rockets are 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) as a home favorite after a road win in which their DPS was negative. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-6.8 ppg) in franchise history on the road after a loss in which James Harden had more turnovers than assists. t:team=rockets and A and rest=0 and po:fgp>48.5 and date>= team=rockets and max:p:points<20 and p:hw and season>=2008 team=rockets and F and 0<rest and p:a and p:assists / p:fgm <= 0.40 and date>= team=rockets and HF and p:dps<0 and p:aw and date>= A and Rockets:James Harden:p:assists<Rockets:James Harden:p:TO and p:l 22

23 INDIANA PACERS PLAY - ON IND001 IND002 IND003 IND004 IND005 The Pacers are 13-0 ATS (+12.9 ppg) as a home favorite with two or more days of rest after win in which they allowed less than 39.5% from the field. The Pacers are 11-0 ATS (+11.5 ppg) as a rested road favorite after a road game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Pacers are 11-0 ATS (+3.9 ppg) as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a regulation loss in which they scored more than 28% of their points from the three-point line. The Pacers are 11-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) in franchise history after a road loss in which Paul George played more than 40 minutes. The Pacers are 10-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) with rest after a road loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. team=pacers and HF and rest>=2 and p:w and po:fgp<39.5 and season>=2004 team=pacers and AF and p:a and 0<rest and p:to<10 team=pacers and HF and rest<2 and p:l and p:tpm*3/p:points>0.28 and p:ot=0 and season>=2007 Pacers:Paul George:p:minutes>40 and p:al team=pacers and 0<rest and p:al and po:fgm<p:fgm and season>=2010 PLAY - AGAINST IND006 IND007 IND008 IND009 IND010 The Pacers are 0-11 ATS (-10.4 ppg) as a dog after a home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was more than eight. The Pacers are 0-11 ATS (-9.2 ppg) as a road dog with no rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Pacers are 0-11 ATS (-7.3 ppg) with rest off a home loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Pacers are 0-10 ATS (-7.7 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a win in which they had at least 12 steals and at least 5 blocks. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-10.6 ppg) on the road after a game in which David West scored fewer than 10 points. team=pacers and D and p:hw and p:fga/p:to>8 and date>= team=pacers and AD and rest=0 and p:w and p:ftm/p:points<0.15 and date>= team=pacers and 0<rest and p:hl and p:streak>=3 and season>=2006 team=pacers and F and rest<2 and p:w and p:steals>=12 and p:blocks>=5 and date>= A and Pacers:David West:p:points<10 and date>= NBA Schedule Log 23

24 LA CLIPPERS PLAY - ON LAC01 LAC02 LAC03 LAC04 LAC05 The Clippers are 11-0 ATS (+9.8 ppg) at home after a home game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Clippers are 11-0 ATS (+10.6 ppg) at home when they have a same-season revenge game tomorrow. The Clippers are 9-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) as a favorite after a road win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) as a road dog after a home game in which they had at least 10 fewer personal fouls than their opponent. The Clippers are 8-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) as a favorite in the second of back-to-back road games after winning the first as a dog. team=clippers and H and p:h and p:assists/ p:fgm < 0.45 and season>=2000 team=clippers and H and np:l and n:rest==0 and np:season=n:season and np:date<date and date>= team=clippers and F and p:aw and p:ftm/ p:points >= 0.25 and season>=2002 team=clippers and AD and p:h and po:fouls - p:fouls>=10 and date>= team=clippers and AF and rest=0 and p:wad PLAY - AGAINST LAC06 LAC07 LAC08 LAC09 LAC10 The Clippers are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) with two or more days of rest after a home game in which they had more turnovers than assists. The Clippers are 0-13 ATS (-10.2 ppg) after visiting the Timberwolves. The Clippers are 0-12 ATS (-7.6 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-7.4 ppg) after a road loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-9.2 ppg) on the road after a home game in which Blake Griffin played but was not their high scorer. team=clippers and rest>=2 and p:h and p:assists<p:turnovers and season>=1998 team=clippers and p:a and po:team=timberwolves and season>=2006 team=clippers and H and rest<2 and p:dps<=-15 and season>=2007 team=clippers and p:al and p:fgp>=50 and date>= A and Clippers:Blake Griffin:p:points<max:p:points and p:h and Clippers:Blake Griffin:p:minutes>0 and date>=

25 LA LAKERS PLAY- ON LAL001 LAL002 LAL003 LAL004 LAL005 The Lakers are 12-0 ATS (+9.4 ppg) as a regular season favorite when seeking same-season revenge for a road loss in which Kobe Bryant was NOT the Lakers high scorer. The Lakers are 11-0 ATS (+7.8 ppg) on the road after a road win in which they allowed at least 49% from the field. The Lakers are 10-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) when they had more turnovers than assists for two straight games. The Lakers are 8-0 ATS (+13.2 ppg) as a road dog in the second of back-to-back road games when they shot at least 50% from the field in yesterday s game. The Lakers are 7-0 ATS (+12.6 ppg) at home when Pau Gasol increased his scoring by at least 15 points over their past two games. team=lakers and F and P:AL and P:season=season and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:P:points<max:P:points and playoffs=0 and <=date team=lakers and A and p:aw and po:fgp>49 and date>= team=lakers and pp:assists<pp:turnovers and p:assists<p:to and season>=2002 team=lakers and A and 0<line and rest=0 and p:a and p:fgp>=50 and date>= H and Lakers:Pau Gasol:p:points - Lakers:Pau Gasol:pp:points>=15 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST LAL006 LAL007 LAL008 LAL009 LAL010 The Lakers are 0-14 ATS (-9.0 ppg) on the road after a home loss in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers' high scorer. The Lakers are 0-13 ATS (-8.4 ppg) on the road after a loss as a home favorite. The Lakers are 0-12 ATS (-8.3 ppg) after a home win against the Timberwolves. The Lakers are 0-11 ATS (-12.0 ppg) as a dog when they suffered a double digit ATS loss for two straight games. The Lakers are 0-9 ATS (-10.2 ppg) after a road win in which Kobe Bryant had at least 5 turnovers. team=lakers and A and Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:points=max:p:points and p:hl and season>=2010 team=lakers and A and p:lhf and date>= team=lakers and p:hw and po:team=timberwolves and season>=2006 t:team=lakers and D and pp:ats margin<=-10 and p:ats margin<=-10 and season>=2004 Lakers:Kobe Bryant:p:TO>=5 and p:aw and date>= NBA Schedule Log 25

26 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES PLAY - ON MEM001 MEM002 MEM003 MEM004 MEM005 The Grizzlies are 12-0 ATS (+4.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a win on the road in which they scored less than 15.5% of their points from the free throw line. The Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) on the road after a road loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS (+10.7 ppg) as a dog off a home win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) when they are off a double digit win when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (+6.6 ppg) after a home game in which Marc Gasol was their high scorer. team=grizzlies and rest<2 and p:aw and p:ftm/ p:points < and date>= team=grizzlies and A and p:al and p:assists<15 and <=date team=grizzlies and D and p:hw and p:m1<0 and p:m2<0 and p:m3<0 and <=date team=grizzlies and p:margin>=10 and 0<op:overtime and season>=2003 Grizzlies:Marc Gasol:p:points=max:p:points and p:h and date>= PLAY - AGAINST MEM006 MEM007 MEM008 MEM009 MEM010 The Grizzlies are 0-11 ATS (-7.6 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after home loss in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Grizzlies are 0-11 ATS (-9.8 ppg) as a dog when their opponent is playing their fourth game in five days. The Grizzlies are 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) at home after playing on the road against the Nuggets. The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS (-6.8 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Marc Gasol took fewer than 10 shots. The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS (-8.0 ppg) as a dog with at most one day of rest after a win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. team=grizzlies and H and rest<2 and p:hl and p:assists / p:fgm> 0.70 and date>= t:team=grizzlies and D and o:rest + op:rest + opp:rest<=1 and date>= team=grizzlies and H and p:a and po:team=nuggets and date>= A and Grizzlies:Marc Gasol:p:FGA<10 and p:l and date>= t:team=grizzlies and D and rest<2 and p:w and p:tpm*3/p:points >= 0.30 and season>=

27 MIAMI HEAT PLAY - ON MIA001 MIA002 MIA003 MIA004 MIA005 The Heat are 15-0 ATS (+12.7 ppg) when they have a revenge game on the road tomorrow. The Heat are 12-0 ATS (+8.0 ppg) as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they scored at least 25% of their points from the free throw line The Heat are 11-0 ATS (+14.7 ppg) after a loss in which Dwyane Wade was not their high scorer. The Heat are 11-0 ATS (+9.3 ppg) on the road after a game in which Norris Cole had more turnovers than assists. The Heat are 11-0 ATS (+7.0 ppg) when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led by double digits. team=heat and np:l and n:rest=0 and np:season=n:season and n:a and <=date team=heat and F and 0<rest and p:a and p:ftm/ p:points>=0.25 and date>= Heat:Dwyane Wade:p:points<max:p:points and p:l and date>= team=heat and A and Heat:Norris Cole:p:assists<Heat:Norris Cole:p:turnovers and date>= team=heat and P:L and 10<=P:BL and P:season==season and date>= PLAY - AGAINST MIA006 MIA007 MIA008 MIA009 MIA010 The Heat were 0-13 ATS (-11.2 ppg) last season after a game in which Dwyane Wade took more than 18 shots in less than 40 minutes of playing time. The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-6.7 ppg) on the road after a game at home in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-10.3 ppg) on the road when Dwyane Wade increased his scoring by at least 15 points over their past two games. The Heat are 0-8 ATS (-6.7 ppg) in franchise history at home off a win in which Chris Bosh shot better than 50% from the arc. The Heat are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 ppg) at home when they won their last two games and both were on the road. Heat:Dwyane Wade:p:FGA>18 and Heat:Dwyane Wade:p:minutes<40 and season>=2012 team=heat and A and p:h and 20<=p:TO and date>= A and Heat:Dwyane Wade:p:points-Heat:Dwyane Wade:pp:points>=15 and date>= H and Heat:Chris Bosh:p:TPP>50 and p:w team=heat and H and p:aw and pp:aw and season>= NBA Schedule Log 27

28 MILWAUKEE BUCKS PLAY - ON MIL001 MIL002 MIL003 MIL004 MIL005 The Bucks are 10-0 ATS (+8.7 ppg) with two or more days of rest off a loss that broke at least a four-game winning streak. The Bucks are 10-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) on the road off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Bucks are 9-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) on the road after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (+14.6 ppg) on the road versus the Nets. The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (+4.5 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a double-digit loss in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. team=bucks and 1<rest and p:l and p:streak>=4 and date>= team=bucks and A and p:wf and p:m3<0 and date>= team=bucks and A and ta(p:to) -p:to >=5 and date>= team=bucks and A and o:team=nets and date>= team=bucks and rest<2 and p:margin<=-10 and p:assists / p:fgm < 0.40 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST MIL006 MIL007 MIL008 MIL009 MIL010 The Bucks are 0-13 ATS (-7.6 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest off a road win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Bucks are 0-12 ATS (-11.2 ppg) at home after a double digit road win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Bucks are 0-11 ATS (-11.2 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bucks are 0-10 ATS (-7.6 ppg) with rest after a loss at home in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds. The Bucks are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) after a game in which they had at least 12 steals. team=bucks and H and rest<2 and p:aw and p:m3<0 and season>=2001 team=bucks and H and p:margin>=10 and p:a and p:fgp>46 and season>=2009 team=bucks and H and rest<2 and p:w and p:ftm/p:points < 0.15 and date>= team=bucks and 0<rest and p:hl and p:orb>=20 team=bucks and 12<=p:steals and date>=

29 MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES PLAY ON MIN001 MIN002 MIN003 MIN004 MIN005 The Timberwolves are 11-0 ATS (+7.3 ppg) after a road win in which they had fifteen or fewer assists. The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) after a loss in which their DPS was positive. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Kevin Love was not their high scorer. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS (+8.4 ppg) as a home favorite with no rest after a road game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) on the road with rest after a home game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. team=timberwolves and p:aw and p:assists<=15 and season>=2005 team=timberwolves and 0<p:dps and p:l and date>= A and Timberwolves:Kevin Love:p:points<max:p:points and p:l and date>= team=timberwolves and HF and rest=0 and p:a and p:fgp>=50 and season>=2003 team=timberwolves and A and 0<rest and p:h and p:orb<=5 and season>=2003 PLAY AGAINST MIN006 MIN007 MIN008 MIN009 MIN010 The Timberwolves are 0-12 ATS (-11.0 ppg) as a home dog off a loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Timberwolves are 0-12 ATS (-8.8 ppg) with rest after a home game in which they blocked at least 10 shots. The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS (-7.5 ppg) as a home dog after a win as a home favorite. The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS (-8.0 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS (-5.7 ppg) after Jose Barea took fewer than 10 shots in a win. team=timberwolves and HD and p:l and p:m1>0 and p:m2>0 and p:m3>0 and season>=1997 team=timberwolves and 0<rest and p:h and p:blocks>=10 and date>= team=timberwolves and HD and p:whf and season>=2004 team=timberwolves and H and rest<2 and p:assists / p:fgm > 0.70 and date>= Timberwolves:Jose Barea:p:FGA<10 and p:w and date>= NBA Schedule Log 29

30 NEW ORLEANS PELICANS PLAY - ON NOR001 NOR002 NOR003 NOR004 NOR005 The Pelicans are 16-0 ATS (+7.0 ppg) as a road dog with two or more days of rest after a regulation game in which they allowed less than 41% from the field. The Pelicans are 10-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) as a dog off an overtime win as a dog. The Pelicans are 9-0 ATS (+8.2 ppg) with rest after a loss at home in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Pelicans are 8-0 ATS (+6.6 ppg) as a rested road dog after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Pelicans are 8-0 ATS (+10.5 ppg) with two or more days of rest vs a team that is off an overtime game. team=pelicans and AD and rest>=2 and po:fgp<41 and p:ot=0 and date>= t:team=pelicans and D and p:ot>0 and p:wd team=pelicans and 0<rest and p:hl and p:dps >=15 team=pelicans and AD and 0<rest and p:ftp<60 and season>=2002 team=pelicans and rest>=2 and 0<op:OT and season>=2006 PLAY - AGAINST NOR006 NOR007 NOR008 NOR009 NOR010 The Pelicans are 0-14 ATS (-9.6 ppg) as a favorite after a road game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Pelicans are 0-14 ATS (-9.7 ppg) at home with rest after a double-digit win when their DPA was better than minus 13.5 points in their previous game. The Pelicans are 0-10 ATS (-6.2 ppg) on the road after any game in which Anthony Davis was not their high scorer The Pelicans are 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) as a home favorite after a win on the road in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Pelicans are 0-9 ATS (-6.8 ppg) when facing a team they beat in their first two match-ups of the season team=pelicans and F and p:a and ta(p:turnovers)- p:turnovers>=5 and date>= team=pelicans and H and 0<rest and p:margin>=10 and p:dpa<-13.5 and date>= A and Pelicans:Anthony Davis:p:points<max:p:points and date>= t:team=pelicans and HF and p:aw and p:assists/ p:to>=2 and date>= team=pelicans and P:W and PP:W and PP:season==season and PPP:season+1=season and date>=

31 NEW YORK KNICKS PLAY - ON NYK001 NYK002 NYK003 NYK004 NYK005 The Knicks are 16-0 ATS (+10.1 ppg) as a dog after a loss by five-plus points in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 8 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Knicks are 13-0 ATS (+11.0 ppg) after a win in which Carmelo Anthony had a double double. The Knicks are 12-0 ATS (+10.9 ppg) at home after a game in which Iman Shumpert scored fewer than 12 points. The Knicks are 12-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) when playing the third game of a three-game road trip after losing the first two. The Knicks are 11-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which they shot at least 49% from the field. team=knicks and D and p:margin<=-5 and po:fgp-ta(po:fgp)>8 and <=date 10<=Knicks:Carmelo Anthony:p:points and 10<=Knicks:Carmelo Anthony:p:rebounds and p:w and date>= H and Knicks:Iman Shumpert:p:points<12 and date>= team=knicks and ppp:h and pp:al and p:al and A and n:h and date>= team=knicks and H and p:aw and p:fgp>49 and season>=2008 PLAY - AGAINST NYK006 NYK007 NYK008 NYK009 NYK010 The Knicks are 0-11 ATS (-9.9 ppg) as a road favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which their DPS higher than plus 13 points. The Knicks are 0-10 ATS (-11.1 ppg) with no rest after a home game in which they scored 10% or less of their points from the three-point line. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-10.2 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-8.6 ppg) after a road loss Carmelo Anthony shot worse than 35% from the field. The Knicks are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) after a game in which JR Smith scored fewer than 10 points. team=knicks and AF and rest<2 and p:margin>=10 and p:dps>13 team=knicks and rest=0 and p:h and p:ptp<=10 and date>= team=knicks and F and rest<2 and ats streak<=-3 and streak<=-3 and date>= Knicks:Carmelo Anthony:p:FGP<35 and p:al and season>=2011 Knicks:JR Smith:p:points<10 and date>= NBA Schedule Log 31

32 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER PLAY - ON OKC001 OKC002 OKC003 OKC004 OKC005 The Thunder are 15-0 ATS in franchise history after a road loss in which Thabo Sefolosha shot at least 60% from the field. The Thunder are 11-0 ATS (+10.5 ppg) when Russell Westbrook s scoring dropped by at least 14 points over their past two games. The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (+8.7 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a home loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) at home when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season when they were favored. The Thunder are 8-0 ATS (+11.6 ppg) at home after Serge Ibaka had more rebounds than points. Thunder:Thabo Sefolosha:p:FGP>=60 and p:al Thunder:Russell Westbrook:p:points- Thunder:Russell Westbrook:pp:points<=-14 and date>= team=thunder and rest<2 and p:hl and p:m3>0 and date>= team=thunder and H and P:ats margin<=-10 and P:season==season and P:F and date>= H and Thunder:Serge Ibaka:p:points<Thunder:Serge Ibaka:p:rebounds and date>= PLAY - AGAINST OKC006 OKC007 OKC008 OKC009 OKC010 The Thunder are 0-10 ATS (-12.0 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they scored 10% or less of their points from the three-point line. The Thunder are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) in franchise history after a game in which Kevin Durant made at least five threes and they did not win by double-digits. The Thunder are 0-9 ATS (-7.1 ppg) in franchise history after a win Russell Westbrook shot better than 64% from the field in a win. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) after a game on the road in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. The Thunder are 0-7 ATS (-9.3 ppg) after a game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. team=thunder and F and p:w and 3 * p:tpm/ p:points <=0.10 and date>= <=Thunder:Kevin Durant:p:TPM and p:margin<10 Thunder:Russell Westbrook:p:FGP>64 and p:w team=thunder and p:a and p:assists / p:fgm < 0.40 and date>= team=thunder and p:orb<=5 and season>=

33 ORLANDO MAGIC PLAY - ON ORL001 ORL002 ORL003 ORL004 ORL005 The Magic are 14-0 ATS (+10.8 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a double-digit loss on the road in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average The Magic are 12-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Magic are 12-0 ATS (+9.1 ppg) at home after a double-digit loss on the road in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Magic are 10-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) after a home win in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Magic are 8-0 ATS (+8.1 ppg) as a dog off a loss as a home favorite in which they led by 10+ points. team=magic and 0<rest and p:margin<=-10 and p:a and p:turnovers-ta(p:turnovers)<=-5 and date> t:team=magic and AD and 0<rest and p:l and 3*p:TPM/p:points>=0.30 and date>= team=magic and H and p:margin<-8 and p:a and p:dpa>=15 and date>= t:team=magic and p:hw and po:tpp >=50 and season>=2007 t:team=magic and D and p:lhf and p:bl>=10 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST ORL006 ORL007 ORL008 ORL009 ORL010 The Magic are 0-12 ATS (-11.5 ppg) after a home game in which Nikola Vucevic had a double-double. The Magic are 0-12 ATS (-8.4 ppg) as a favorite when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting. The Magic are 0-11 ATS (-11.7 ppg) at home after a home game in which they scored less than 18% of their points from the free throw line. The Magic are 0-8 ATS (-7.3 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a home win in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter. The Magic are 0-7 ATS (-5.1 ppg) at home after a game in which Arron Afflalo had more turnovers than assists. 10<=Magic:Nikola Vucevic:p:points and 10<=Magic:Nikola Vucevic:p:rebounds and p:h and date>= team=magic and F and P:ats margin<=-10 and P:season==season and date>= team=magic and H and p:h and p:ftm/ p:points<0.18 and date>= team=magic and rest<2 and p:hw and p:m3=0 and season>=2003 H and Magic:Arron Afflalo:p:assists<Magic:Arron Afflalo:p:turnovers and date>= NBA Schedule Log 33

34 PHILADELPHIA 76ERS PLAY - ON PHI001 PHI002 The Seventysixers are 14-0 ATS (+7.1 ppg) as a favorite with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their DPA was at least plus 12 points. The Seventysixers are 12-0 ATS (+10.7 ppg) as a dog with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them PHI003 The Seventysixers are 11-0 ATS (+8.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest off an overtime game as a home favorite. PHI004 The Seventysixers are 9-0 ATS (+13.4 ppg) on the road after a road game in which Evan Turner played fewer than 30 minutes. PHI005 The Seventysixers are 9-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) as a road dog with no rest after a double digit home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. team=seventysixers and F and 0<rest and p:margin<=-10 and p:dpa>=12 and season>=2004 team=seventysixers and D and rest>=2 and p:tpa>=10 and p:tpp>47 and season>=2003 team=seventysixers and rest<2 and 0<p:OT and p:hf and <=date team=seventysixers and A and 0<Seventysixers:Evan Turner:p:minutes<30 and p:a and date>= team=seventysixers and AD and rest=0 and p:margin<=-10 and p:h and po:fgp>=50 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST PHI006 PHI007 PHI008 PHI009 PHI010 The 76ers are 0-12 ATS (-7.0 ppg) on the road after a home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The 76ers are 0-12 ATS (+10.0 ppg) as a dog after a home win by more than eight points in which they had at least 12 steals The 76ers are 0-10 ATS (-10.5 ppg) on the road after a home win in which Evan Turner scored fewer than ten points. The 76ers are 0-10 ATS (-11.1 ppg) as a home favorite when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The 76ers are 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) with no rest after a game on the road in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. team=seventysixers and A and p:hl and 3*p:TPM/ p:points<0.10 and <=date t:team=seventysixers and D and p:margin>8 and p:h and 12<=p:steals and season>=2003 A and Seventysixers:Evan Turner:p:points<10 and p:hw and date>= t:team=seventysixers and HF and p:assists - pp:assists >= 10 and date>= team=seventysixers and rest=0 and p:a and p:to<10 and season>=

35 PHOENIX SUNS PLAY - ON PHO001 PHO002 PHO003 PHO004 PHO005 The Suns are 11-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) as a rested favorite after a win in which more than 67.5% of their baskets were assisted. The Suns are 9-0 ATS (+7.9 ppg) when Goran Dragic scored fewer than 10 points their last two games. The Suns are 9-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) as a road favorite when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. The Suns are 8-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Suns are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 ppg) as a rested home favorite after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. team=suns and F and 0<rest and p:w and p:assists/ p:fgm >= and season>=2009 Suns:Goran Dragic:pp:points<10 and Suns:Goran Dragic:p:points<10 and date>= team=suns and AF and 100<=ppo:points and 100<=po:points and date>= team=suns and rest<2 and p:fouls<15 and season>=2011 team=suns and HF and 0<rest and p:l and po:fgp>=50 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST PHO006 PHO007 PHO008 PHO009 PHO010 The Suns are 0-15 ATS (-9.4 ppg) after a game in which they had fewer than fifteen assists and more than twelve turnovers. The Suns are 0-9 ATS (-9.3 ppg) after a double digit win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent. The Suns are 0-9 ATS (-4.7 ppg) as a favorite after a road game in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Suns are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) in franchise history after a home loss in which Goran Dragic was their high scorer. The Suns are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) as a home favorite after a road loss in which they had at least 12 steals. team=suns and p:assists<15 and p:turnovers>12 and <=date team=suns and p:margin>=10 and p:fgppo:fgp>=10 and date>= team=suns and F and p:a and po:blocks>=10 and season>=2003 Suns:Goran Dragic:p:points==max:p:points and p:hl team=suns and HF and p:al and p:steals>=12 and season>= NBA Schedule Log 35

36 PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS PLAY - ON POR001 POR002 POR003 POR004 POR005 The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS (+10.7 ppg) with no rest after a game in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS (+5.7 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. The Trailblazers are 9-0 ATS (+9.3 ppg) at home off a home win of four points or fewer in which they held a 15-plus point lead. The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (+7.6 ppg) at home after Lamarcus Aldridge had a double double in a win. team=trailblazers and rest=0 and p:assists / p:fgm > 0.70 and date>= team=trailblazers and H and rest<2 and p:margin>=10 and p:h and po:fgp<40 and season>=2004 team=trailblazers and rest<2 and p:margin<=-10 and p:to>=20 and date>= team=trailblazers and H and 0<p:margin<=4 and p:bl>=15 and p:h and date>= H and 10<=Trailblazers:Lamarcus Aldridge:p:points and 10<=Trailblazers:Lamarcus Aldridge:p:rebounds and p:w and date>= PLAY - AGAINST POR006 POR007 POR008 POR009 POR010 The Trailblazers are 0-11 ATS (-9.8 ppg) on the road after hosting the Spurs. The Trailblazers are 0-10 ATS (-7.1 ppg) when seeking same-season revenge for a loss as a road dog. The Trailblazers are 0-10 ATS (-8.4 ppg) on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot 60% or worse from the free-throw line. The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-11.0 ppg) as a favorite when they covered by double digits two games straight. The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 ppg) on the road after Lamarcus Aldridge played fewer than 32 minutes. team=trailblazers and A and p:h and po:team=spurs and season>=1997 team=trailblazers and P:season==season and P:LAD and date>= team=trailblazers and A and rest<2 and p:ftp<=60 and date>= team=trailblazers and F and 10<=pp:ats margin and 10<=p:ats margin and season>=2008 A and 0<Trailblazers:Lamarcus Aldridge:p:minutes<32 and p:w and date>=

37 SACRAMENTO KINGS PLAY - ON SAC001 SAC002 SAC003 SAC004 SAC005 The Kings are 14-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) on the road with rest after a road loss in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times. The Kings are 12-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) after a game in which Demarcus Cousins played but scored fewer than 10 points. The Kings are 9-0 ATS since Jan 09, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Kings are 8-0 ATS (+11.6 ppg) after a loss on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (+7.3 ppg) when they are off two road losses. team=kings and A and 0<rest and p:al and 12<=po:steals and season>=1999 Kings:Demarcus Cousins:p:points<10 and date>= and Kings:Demarcus Cousins:p:minutes>0 team=kings and A and 0<rest and p:aw and p:pft < 15 and date>= team=kings and p:al and p:fgp>=50 and date>= team=kings and p:al and pp:al and date>= PLAY - AGAINST SAC006 SAC007 SAC008 SAC009 SAC010 The Kings are 0-12 ATS (-8.7 ppg) on the road after a loss against the Pacers. The Kings are 0-12 ATS (-10.2 ppg) with no rest after a win at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Kings are 0-10 ATS (-11.5 ppg) off a loss as a favorite in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Kings are 0-10 ATS (-12.1 ppg) as a favorite after a home win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent. The Kings are 0-9 ATS (-11.6 ppg) after a win in which they had at least thirty assists. team=kings and A and p:l and po:team=pacers t:team=kings and rest=0 and p:hw and p:assists/ p:to>=2 and season>=2000 team=kings and p:lf and p:m3>0 and date>= t:team=kings and F and p:hw and po:fgm>p:fgm and date>= t:team=kings and p:w and p:assists>=30 and season>= NBA Schedule Log 37

38 SAN ANTONIO SPURS PLAY - ON SAN001 SAN002 SAN003 The Spurs are 14-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) during the regular season after a road win in which Manu Ginobili scored at least 30 points. The Spurs are 10-0 (+7.0 ppg) at home after a home game in which Tony Parker points increased by at least 15 points from his previous game. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (+11.3 ppg) after a road loss in which Tim Duncan had more rebounds than points. Spurs:Manu Ginobili:p:points>=30 and p:aw and playoffs=0 H and Spurs:Tony Parker:p:points -Spurs:Tony Parker:pp:points>=15 and p:h and date>= Spurs:Tim Duncan:p:points<Spurs:Tim Duncan:p:rebounds and p:al and season>=2005 SAN004 SAN005 The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (+8.7 ppg) when their opponent is playing their fourth game in five days. The Spurs are 8-0 ATS (+8.3 ppg) as a favorite after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the freethrow line. team=spurs and o:rest + op:rest + opp:rest<=1 and date>= team=spurs and F and p:ftp<60 and date>= PLAY - AGAINST SAN006 SAN007 SAN008 SAN009 SAN010 The Spurs are 0-12 ATS (-9.5 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Spurs are 0-10 ATS (-6.5 ppg) on the road after a loss on the road in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Spurs are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) with at least one day of rest after a win in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-7.3 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Tony Parker s points dropped by at least 15 points from the previous game. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-10.6 ppg) as a road favorite with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed less than 35% from the field. team=spurs and F and p:a and 10<=po:blocks and <=date team=spurs and A and p:al and p:ptp<10 and season>=2003 team=spurs and 0<rest and p:w and p:fouls<15 and date>= A and Spurs:Tony Parker:pp:points-Spurs:Tony Parker:p:points>=15 and p:l and season>=2007 team=spurs and AF and rest<2 and po:fgp<35 and season>=

39 TORONTO RAPTORS PLAY - ON TOR001 TOR002 TOR003 TOR004 TOR005 The Raptors are 13-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) on the road with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Raptors are 11-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) with at most one day of rest off a loss as a home dog in which they led by 10+ points. The Raptors are 11-0 ATS (+9.3 ppg) as a home favorite after a road game in which they were whistled for at least 30 personal fouls. The Raptors are 9-0 ATS (+14.0 ppg) at home after a loss in which their DPA was negative. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (+8.3 ppg) at home after a loss in which Demar Derozan scored fewer than 10 points. team=raptors and A and rest<2 and p:al and p:to<10 and season>=2005 team=raptors and rest<2 and p:biggest lead>=10 and p:lhd and season>=2009 team=raptors and HF and p:a and p:fouls>=30 and date>= t:team=raptors and H and p:dpa<0 and p:l and date>= team=raptors and H and Raptors:Demar Derozan:p:points<10 and p:l and season>=2011 PLAY - AGAINST TOR006 TOR007 TOR008 TOR009 TOR010 The Raptors are 0-12 ATS (-7.2 ppg) with a rest off a loss in which they led by more than eight points at the end of the first quarter. The Raptors are 0-12 ATS (-7.6 ppg) with rest after a double digit win in which their opponent attempted more than 18 threes but made 25% of less of them. The Raptors are 0-9 ATS (-6.2 ppg) on the road after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Raptors are 0-8 ATS (-7.6 ppg) after a home game in which Amir Johnson had more rebounds than points. The Raptors are 0-8 ATS (-6.8 ppg) at home off a road win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points. team=raptors and 0<rest and p:l and p:m1>8 and season>=2008 team=raptors and 0<rest and p:margin>=10 and po:tpa>18 and po:tpp<=25 and date>= team=raptors and A and p:dpa<0 and p:hl and date>= Raptors:Amir Johnson:p:points<Raptors:Amir Johnson:p:rebounds and p:h and date>= team=raptors and H and p:aw and max:p:points< NBA Schedule Log 39

40 UTAH JAZZ PLAY - ON UTH001 UTH002 UTH003 The Jazz are 13-0 ATS (+6.2 ppg) on the road with at most one day of rest after a loss as a dog when their opponent is off an overtime game The Jazz are 11-0 ATS (+7.6 ppg) at home versus the Bucks. The Jazz are 10-0 ATS (+5.9 ppg) as a rested road favorite after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. UTH004 The Jazz are 9-0 ATS (+9.2 ppg) as a road dog when seeking same season revenge for a road double-digit ATS loss. UTH005 The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (+8.3 ppg) on the road when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games t:team=jazz and A and rest<2 and p:ld and op:ot>0 team=jazz and H and o:team=bucks and season>=2002 team=jazz and AF and 0<rest and p:ptp<10 and <=date team=jazz and AD and P:ats margin<=-10 and P:season==season and P:A and season>=1999 t:team=jazz and A and 100<=ppo:points and 100<=po:points and date>= PLAY - AGAINST UTH006 The Jazz are 0-16 ATS (-9.0 ppg) versus the Knicks. team=jazz and o:team=knicks and <=date UTH007 UTH008 UTH009 UTH010 The Jazz are 0-15 ATS (-9.1 ppg) after a road win in which they had at least 8 shots blocked, as long as they were not an 8-plus point favorite in that road win. The Jazz are 0-10 ATS (+14.9 ppg) as a rested road dog after a win in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Jazz are 0-10 ATS (-10.4 ppg) with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made 25% or less of them. The Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) as a rested dog off a win in which they never trailed. team=jazz and p:aw and po:blocks>=8 and p:line>-8 and season>=2008 team=jazz and AD and 0<rest and p:w and p:ptp<10 and season>=2007 team=jazz and rest<2 and p:margin>=10 and po:tpa>=20 and po:tpp<=25 and date>= team=jazz and D and 0<rest and po:bl=0 and date>=

41 WASHINGTON WIZARDS PLAY - ON WAS001 WAS002 WAS003 WAS004 WAS005 The Wizards are 16-0 ATS (+7.0 ppg) on the road with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 42.75% from the field The Wizards are 11-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) with rest after a win in which they shot less than 60% from the freethrow line. The Wizards are 11-0 ATS (+8.1 ppg) after a road loss by at least eight points in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Wizards are 10-0 ATS (+11.4 ppg) with two or more days of rest off a home loss of five points or less. The Wizards are 9-0 ATS (+7.4 ppg) as a home favorite when seeking same season revenge for a loss as a favorite. team=wizards and A and 1<rest and p:l and p:fgp<42.75 and date>= team=wizards and 0<rest and p:w and p:ftp<60 and <=date team=wizards and p:margin<=-8 and p:a and p:assists/p:to>=2 and <=date team=wizards and 1<rest and p:h and -5<=p:margin<0 and date>= team=wizards and HF and P:LF and P:season==season and season>=2005 PLAY - AGAINST WAS006 WAS007 WAS008 WAS009 WAS010 The Wizards are 0-17 ATS (-7.2 ppg) as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a home game in which they allowed less than 42.25% from the field. The Wizards are 0-15 ATS (-11.7 ppg) after playing on the road against the Lakers. The Wizards are 0-13 ATS (-8.3 ppg) as a dog after a home game in which they blocked at least 10 shots. The Wizards are 0-12 ATS (-8.8 ppg) with rest off an overtime game. The Wizards are 0-10 ATS (-6.8 ppg) in franchise history on the road after a win in which John Wall played more than 40 minutes. team=wizards and AD and rest<2 and p:h and po:fgp<42.25 and date>= team=wizards and p:a and po:team=lakers and season>=1996 team=wizards and D and p:h and p:blocks>=10 and <=date team=wizards and 0<rest and p:ot>0 and season>=2010 A and Wizards:John Wall:p:minutes>40 and p:w NBA Schedule Log 41

42 NCAA STUDY: THE SCORING WILL BE BACK SportsBook Breakers Bettors tend to overreact to single games. This is not something that is unique in NCAA Basketball, as we see it plenty in the NBA and other sports as well. There are several spots where smart, educated bettors can take advantage of this and using the NCAABB SDQL database at sportsdatabase.com we have found dozens of these situations, including the one analyzed below. What we want to look is how teams perform after a game where they score poorly. There are a few ways you can define scoring poorly, but for this analyzes we want to standardize scoring and make is comparative across teams which play different styles and paces. For this we are going to use delta points scored - commonly referred to is DPS. DPS looks at how much a team is expected to score in a game using the game line and total, and then how teams actually score in a game compares to that number computed number. For example, say a team is a three-point favorite in a game where the total was 133. That means that team was expected to score 68 points in that game and allow 65. So then if they scored 51 points in that game their DPS would be -17 (51-68). If they scored 87 points then their DPS would be +19 (87-68). Since DPS goes by incremental of.25, it would be prohibitive to start by listing all possible previous game DPS results. To limit are search, we are going to start by using the SDQL group-by feature. We decided to group our DPS results into five-point increments to get initial results in the following chart. SDQL: p:dps<=0, -5, -10, -15, -20, -25, -30, -35 and p:points>0 NOTE: We are using p:points>0 in all of these queries to eliminate null results) DPS result p:dps <= -35 p:dps <= -30 p:dps <= -25 p:dps <= -20 p:dps <= -15 p:dps <= -10 p:dps <= -5 p:dps <= 0 # of Games ATS result Avg. Line (-1.57, 14.3%) (4.93, 67.6%) (1.70, 56.3%) (1.01, 53.0%) (0.39, 51.0%) (0.01, 50.1%) (0.09, 50.2%) (0.05, 50.1%) Those results clearly show a pattern of more successful ATS result the worse a team performed scoring wise their last game up until the small sample size of -35 DPS and worse. The steady increase in performance starts somewhere between when teams scored less points less than expected last SportsBook Breakers is an expert at trend handicapping throughout all sports and will be making a daily trends pick on NCAA Basketball for the first time in These trends play of the day will include active trends and well as systems such as this on the play SBB likes best using its trend breakdowns on that day s games. NCAA Trends Picks can be found at

43 NCAA STUDY: THE SCORING WILL BE BACK continued game. The optimal spot to being playing on these teams falls somewhere between -20 and -30 DPS. With that in mind, we will now look at the results of all games when the previous DPS was -20 or worse. SDQL: p:dps<=-20 and p:points>0 and line<100 and p:dps (line less than 100 is used to remove games with no line which we are not interested in) This system actually gets to the 55%+ mark which signifies a play-on at a DPS of 24 or below but as you can see from this chart, the heart of this system is when a teams scored between 26.5 and 34 points less than expected last game (-34<=p:dps<=-26.5 and p:points>0 and line<100). In those games, teams are a better than you d expect SU and are particularly strong ATS going Here are some other factors to consider with this system, all made possible by instantaneous queries run with the SDQL: At the point of our successful system, the amount of actual points that teams scored in that last game isn t all that relevant. The median number of points scored in that game is 41 and teams which scored 41 points and above produces a next game ATS result (-34<=p:dps<=-26.5 and p:points>0 and line<100 and p:- points>=41). Teams which scored 40 points or below produces a ATS next game result (-34<=p:dps<=-26.5 and p:points>0 and line<100 and p:points<=40). Over the last four years, the system has been particularly strong at ATS, going over the 55% success mark in each of the years (-34<=p:dps<=-26.5 and p:- points>0 and line<100 and season>=2009). Dogs of nine points or more in the current game, when expectations are most supressed for teams, are ATS in this spot and if you extend the system back to DPS results between and -34, they are an amazingly strong ATS (-34<=p:dps<=-23.5 and p:points>0 and line<100 and line>=9). Conclusion: When a team scores significantly less than expected last game, most bettors either run away or want to go against them after they got burnt by the team last game. Your interest should be peaked and you should further explore these circumstances to see if a play on these teams makes sense in the given situation, which it often times will. DPS result # of Games ATS result Avg. Line p:dps = (-6.00, 0.0%) 1.0 p:dps = (-6.00, 0.0%) 9.0 p:dps = (-8.00, 0.0%) 9.0 p:dps = (-3.50, 0.0%) 12.5 p:dps = (-7.00, 0.0%) 4.0 p:dps = (28.00, 100.0%) 4.0 p:dps = (-8.50, 0.0%) 9.5 p:dps = (11.50, 100.0%) -5.5 p:dps = (-1.50, 50.0%) -4.5 p:dps = (1.00, 100.0%) 1.0 p:dps = (4.50, 100.0%) 2.5 p:dps = (-1.50, 0.0%) -4.5 p:dps = (7.50, 100.0%) 18.5 p:dps = (0.50, 100.0%) 11.5 p:dps = (5.67, 100.0%) 3.0 p:dps = (2.00, 100.0%) 9.0 p:dps = (18.50, 100.0%) 9.5 p:dps = (6.83, 66.7%) -3.2 p:dps = (3.75, 50.0%) -3.8 p:dps = (-3.50, 0.0%) 6.5 p:dps = (8.70, 100.0%) -1.3 p:dps = (19.25, 100.0%) -8.8 p:dps = (5.62, 75.0%) -5.9 p:dps = (-8.50, 0.0%) -2.5 p:dps = (0.83, 33.3%) -2.8 p:dps = (6.00, 50.0%) 3.5 p:dps = (-5.00, 33.3%) 1.3 p:dps = (-8.00, 0.0%) 0.7 p:dps = (1.60, 40.0%) 2.4 p:dps = (3.60, 60.0%) 5.4 p:dps = (4.21, 57.1%) 5.9 p:dps = (0.58, 50.0%) 2.8 p:dps = (6.12, 100.0%) -4.6 p:dps = (1.23, 60.0%) 3.1 p:dps = (1.61, 55.6%) -2.1 p:dps = (-0.25, 50.0%) 1.9 p:dps = (9.30, 100.0%) 3.9 p:dps = (-3.30, 40.0%) -0.4 p:dps = (2.30, 60.0%) -1.6 p:dps = (-7.10, 20.0%) -2.1 p:dps = (4.05, 70.0%) 5.0 p:dps = (-0.82, 45.5%) -1.4 p:dps = (2.55, 70.0%) NBA Schedule Log 43

44 KEY PLAYER OU TRENDS BY MTI SPORTS FORECASTING One of the many advantages of using the SDQL is the ability to query on the performance of key players. Here we present some OU trends involving some of the start of the NBA. It should be readily apparent that key-player performance indicators are not already factored into the line and this gives us line value. The best way to see this is by simply looking at some of the examples. The first is: The Celtics are 0-15 OU (-15.7 ppg) on the road after a win in which Rajon Rondo shot worse than 30% from the field. The SDQL text is: A and Celtics:Rajon Rondo:p:FGP<30 and p:w and date>= Note that Boston has stayed under by an average of 15,7 ppg in this situation. It is not difficult to imagine Rondo adopting a more deliberate tempo on the road off a terrible shooting performance. Our second example is very simple: The Wizards are 0-14 OU (-17.8 ppg) in franchise history after any game in which Nene shot better than 65% from the field. The SDQL text is: Wizards:Nene:p:FGP>65 Note that the Wizards have stayed under by an average of 17.8 ppg in this spot. The reasoning seems clear. After the big man made a high percentage of his shots, they will play an isolation game to feature him and this slows down the clock as the guards wait to feed him the ball in good post position. Our next example features Al Horford, of the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are 17-0 OU (+12.3 ppg) when they are off a loss and Horford attempted fewer than ten shots in each of their last two games, as long as he did not foul out in that loss. The SDQL text is: Hawks:Al Horford:pp:FGA<10 and Hawks:Al Horford:p:FGA<10 and p:l and Hawks:Al Horford:p:fouls<6 and date>= It sure looks as if Horford takes a more offensive stance if he doesn t get his shots for a couple of straight games. Key Player Trend number four involves the star of the Clippers, Blake Griffin. When the Clippers are at home off a game in which Griffin had more than fifteen points, ten-plus boards and not more than five assists, they are 15-0 OU, eclipsing the total by an average of 9.8 ppg. The SDQL text is: H and Blake Griffin:p:points>15 and Blake Griffin:p:rebounds>=10 and Blake Griffin:p:assists<=5 and date>= Finally, staying in the Western Conference, we reveal that the Grizzlies are 0-20 OU when they are off a win in which Zach Randolph played fewer than 35 minutes, scored 15 or fewer points and had 10 or fewer rebounds. The SDQL text is: 0<Zach Randolph:p:minutes<35 and p:w and Zach Randolph:p:rebounds<=10 and Zach Randolph:p:points<=15 and date>= Note that there are two overtime games in this key playerindicator that stayed under. Serious NBA bettors use the Key Player indicators to get a decided advantage over the linesmakers. If you are not using them now, either start using them or give up sports betting and go play the slot machines. BONUS NBA KEY PLAYER OU TRENDS The Blazers are 0-10 OU (-18.5 ppg) in franchise history when Aldridge had more turnovers than assists for two straight games, the last of which was a home loss. The Thunder are 0-12 OU (-14.9 ppg) on the road after a home game in which Russell Westbrook took more than 20 shots. The Spurs are 12-0 OU (+9.8 ppg) on the road after a road loss in which Tim Duncan shot worse than 33% from the field. The Bulls are 0-11 OU (-10.5 ppg) at home after a home loss in which Joakim Noah shot worse than 33% from the field. p:hl and Lamarcus Aldridge:pp:assists<Lamarcus Aldridge:pp:TO and Lamarcus Aldridge:p:assists<Lamarcus Aldridge:p:TO A and p:h and Russell Westbrook:p:FGA>20 and date>= Tim Duncan:p:FGP<33 and A and p:al H and Joakim Noah:p:FGP<33 and p:hl and date>=

45 12 NCAA TRENDS TO WATCH BY SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS These 12 trends and valuable SDQL are just a sampling of what SportsBook Breakers has to offer for NCAA Basketball. Sports- Book Breakers is still building its sets NCAA Basketball of quality trends and systems now that the NCAA Basketball database on Sportsdatabase.com enters its second season. Throughout the regular season and during the entire tournament, SBB will make trends picks and have active trends and systems available at As a reminder, the queries below, along with all your college basketball trends, can be run at SportsDatabase.com, as KillerSports.com is pro only. PLAY - ON TRENDS BYU is 15-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since the start of the 2009 season if not an underdog of five or more after a win by between 3 and 11 points where they grabbed at least 32 rebounds. Kansas is 14-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since 2008 after a loss where they scored between 56 and 79 points which was at least their second of the season. Louisville is 13-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 2012 with no more than a day of rest, coming off a win by less than 20 points. New Mexico State is 11-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since March 8, 2012 if not dogs of nine points or more following a game where they attempted at least 27 free throws. Villanova is ATS (8.6 ppg) with less than seven days rest when the total is at least 138 and they are off a game where they made no more than three three-pointers PLAY - AGAINST TRENDS Baylor 0-16 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since March 12, 2010 when they covered by between 6.5 and 27 points last game while scoring at least a point more than expected team=bay and 27>=p:ats margin>=6.5 and p:dps>=1 and date>= Illinois is 0-14 ATS (-10.7 ppg) in database history with at least a day of rest following a game where they covered by 14+ points Indiana is 0-10 ATS (-6.5 ppg) as a favorite of no more than 22 points after a loss by more than two points as a favorite of at least two points Oklahoma is 0-12 ATS (-9.4 ppg) as between an 4-point favorite and 9-point dog after a game where they led at half then were outscored by at least nine points in the second half. UNLV is 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since January 2009 when not double digit favorites after a game where they were outrebounded by at least nine boards. OVER/UNDER TRENDS Syracuse is 15-0 OU (10.8 ppg) in database history with less than eight days rest when they allowed 52 or fewer points last game and didn t win by more than 35, if they allowed at least three three-pointers. Tennessee is 0-10 OU (-19.3 ppg) in database history when they scored at least 94 points last game and allowed less than 100. SDQL TEXT team=byu and season>=2009 and 11>=p:margin>=3 and p:rebounds>=32 and line<5 team = KAN and p:l and season>=2008 and losses>=2 and 79>=p:points>=56 team=louvi and rest<=1 and date>= and 20>p:margin>0 team=nmexs and p:free throws attempted>=27 and line<9 and date>= team=villa and p:three pointers made<=3 and total>=138 and rest<7 SDQL TEXT team=byu and season>=2009 and 11>=p:margin>=3 and p:rebounds>=32 and line<5 team = ILL and p:ats margin >=14 and rest>0 team=ind and -22<=line<0 and p:line<=-2 and p:margin<-2 team=okl and p:margin-p:margin at the half<=-9 and p:margin at the half>0 and 9>=line>=-4 team=unlv and po:rebounds-p:rebounds>9 and date>= and line>-10 SDQL TEXT team=syr and rest<8 and po:points<=52 and p:margin<=35 and po:three pointers made>2 team = TENN and p:points >= 94 and po:points< NBA Schedule Log 45

46 BIG COVERS DON T SPUR ANOTHER BY SB BREAKERS It s important to remember the NBA season is a marathon, not a sprint. That motto has led to several of the dozens of systems our team at SportsBook Breakers has uncovered in the NBA that can lead to betting profits. The beauty of the SDQL database at is that it allows us to easily sort through 18 seasons worth of NBA data to get a long-term view of how teams perform in certain situations when teams do particularly well - or poor - in both one game and a streak of them. The system that we are analyzing here is a one which teams perform particularly well in one game. More specifically, teams which perform particularly well compared to the spread in their last game, naturally in spots where they had straight up success as well. When a team covered the spread by more than 32 points in their last game they are ATS next game, covering at just a 39.9% rate. The SDQL text is: p:ats margin>32 With 18 years of data, this system has been active an average of nine times per season. Simply by adding the openended parameter season to make the SDQL text: p:ats margin>32 and season shows the season-by-season performance of this system. This system is not one that has been fading, as teams have performed under the critical 45% mark in six of the past seven seasons. In fact since 2000, the system has been particularly strong, with teams going ATS, covering just 34.0% of the time. Now let s get to a little bit of the why this system has taken shape. The first thing to do is to look at lines. Since there are no factors such as site or the quality of team for either the previous game or the current one, a simple comparison of lines from each game provides an accurate portrait. In the game where these teams covered by more than 32 points, they were an average of 0.7 point underdogs. This makes sense as it is a little bit easier for teams to simply win by enough to cover by such a big margin when they are an underdog. In these games following a big cover, the teams are favored by an average of 0.5 points. That s a swing of over a full point in lines, directly due to how a team performed in just one game of the 82-game season. The other factor is less tangible in the stats but it s something we see throughout several of our systems - that when a team overexerts themselves in one game, it catches up to them the next. Here are some other factors to consider with this trend, all made possible by instantaneous queries run with the SDQL: Teams are just 3-18 ATS when their huge cover came in the first six games of the season, as can be seen with this SDQL text: p:ats margin>32 and p:game number<=6 Teams have been worse in these games when the big cover in a game which was expected to be close - with a line of within four points either way - going ATS. See for yourself with this SDQL text: p:ats margin>32 and -4<=p:line<=4 There are three ways to cover a line by this much - an extraordinary offensive game, an extraordinary defensive game, or both. Teams that really had their success that the offensive end actually of done fine in their next game, with teams outscoring expectations by at least 25.5 points going ATS in these spots. This can be verified with this SDQL text: p:ats margin>32 and p:dps>=25.5 Teams which had a balanced combination of the two factors have not been so fortunate, going ATS when they did not score more than 23 points more than expected, or allow less than 23 points less than expected. The SDQL here is: p:ats margin>32 and -23<=p:dpa and 23>=p:dps Conclusion: The NBA season is a six-month journey and is the most predictable of any professional sport with respect top the quality of a team throughout the season. Barring significant changes such as an injury or trade, a team s long-term fortunes rarely change much during the season. This means you should not overrate one performance from any team, and want to be leery of one team which completely blows away expectations in a game. SportsBook Breakers uses systems like this, and over 100 more, along with trends and other factors in its daily handicapping selections. Those selections as well as dailt trend plays -- complete with the SDQL text -- will be available all season long at along with weekly and season-long packages. 46

47 The KillerSports.com NBA Schedule/Log THE TEAM SCHEDULES This sections contains a two-page schedule for each NBA team. The teams are in alphabetical order by their home city. Besides the date of the game and the names of the teams playing, the schedule includes the day of the game and the rest combination. The format of the rest combination is such that the rest of the team is given first and the rest of their opponent is given next. In addition, there is a column headed OPP SCH. This column let s you know when a team s opponent is playing the second of back-to-back road games, playing their fourth game in five days and if their opponent is playing in at least their third straight road game three game road trip. If the team s opponent is playing the second of Back-to-Back road games it will be indicated by B2B. If the team s opponent is playing their fourth game in five days, a 4in5 will appear in the OPP SCH column. If the team is playing in at least their third straight road game, a the phrase nth A will appear in the OPP SCH column, where n is the number of their consecutive road game. For example, if the team s opponent is playing in their third straight road game, 3rd A will appear. If the team s opponent is playing in their sixth straight road game, 6th A will be in the OPP SCH column. The goal of the authors of the Killer Sports Schedule/Log is to provide the reader with information at a glance, thus preventing the incessant flipping back and forth through a schedule. Along with the scheduled-based information there are spaces to fill in the results. The columns labeled side and total are for the lines and the column headed FINAL is for the final score. The remaining 9 columns are provided for the user to enter whatever results he/she feels are important. The headings we entered are the ones usually used by handicappers, but we hope our customers feel free to redefine these columns. If the columns are used as we headed them, most handicappers simply enter W, L or P in the boxes that apply. If you miss a game or two, up-to-date schedule/log results are available at KillerSports.com. Simply click on the Schedule/Log link from the NBA home page. Play Smart. Play Informed. Get on KillerSports.com NBA Schedule Log 47