Opposition Analysis in Major League Lacrosse

Transcription

1 Opposition Analysis in Major League Lacrosse Jesse McNulty Director of Analytics Atlanta Blaze Professional Lacrosse Club Major League Lacrosse (MLL)

2 Overview Where did this all start? And why? Opposition Analysis (open up Pandora s Box ) Moving forward... Q&A

3 Introduction Engineering training, transitioned into public education William Penn H.S. Dept. of Mathematics - 7 to present Started in Sports Analytics in : UD Men s Ice Hockey (ACHA D) - Asst. Coach Baie-Comeau Drakkar / Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) 5 WJC - Team Switzerland Director of Analytics - Atlanta Blaze (Jan. 6 to present)

4 Limitations of Data Very limited in scope Little impact on game outcome Inaccurate... 6 week - TO s 4 games (4 total TO s)

5 Opposition Analysis Using Data Virtually all Opposition Analysis uses data Recorded data offer completeness and (some) objectivity Want to look at many situations over seasons Pandora s Box vs Florida Launch (7 - Week - 7//7) Focus: Off / Def / Goaltending Tactics Primary: Pre-scouting and Opposition Analysis Time frame: -5 days prior to game Audience: Team staff, front office, and players

6 Questions for Discovery Style - Offense / Defense Strengths? Where? Who? Weaknesses? Where? Who? Gamechangers? Opportunities for disruption?

7 Overview Opposition Analysis Contents: MLL League Information Offense Goaltending Defense Video Analysis / Staff suggestions

8 Opposition Analysis: Major League Lacrosse League Data (7 MLL Regular Season)

9 Offensive Efficiency (thru week ) Team Points Per 45 Possessions Unassisted G Unassisted Sh. % Assisted G Assisted Sh. % -point G -point Sh. % Denver Outlaws Charlotte Hounds Chesapeake Bayhawks Ohio Machine Atlanta Blaze Boston Cannons MLL Average Florida Launch New York Lizards Rochester Rattlers Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

10 Offensive Efficiency (by Scenario) Team Dodge Two-man Fast Break X Top Wings Florida Launch Denver Outlaws Atlanta Blaze Ohio Machine Rochester Rattlers MLL Average Boston Cannons Charlotte Hounds Chesapeake Bayhawks New York Lizards Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

11 Defensive Efficiency (thru week ) Team Points Per 45 Possessions Unassisted G Unassisted Sh. % Assisted G Assisted Sh. % Ohio Machine Denver Outlaws Rochester Rattlers Charlotte Hounds MLL Average Florida Launch New York Lizards Boston Cannons Chesapeake Bayhawks Atlanta Blaze Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

12 Defensive Efficiency (by Scenario) Team Dodge Two-man Fast Break X Top Wings Ohio Machine Florida Launch Rochester Rattlers Charlotte Hounds MLL Average Denver Outlaws Chesapeake Bayhawks New York Lizards Boston Cannons Atlanta Blaze Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

13 Clearing/Riding (thru week ) Team TO% Opponent TO% Clear % Ride % Atlanta Blaze Boston Cannons Charlotte Hounds Chesapeake Bayhawks Denver Outlaws Florida Launch MLL Average New York Lizards Ohio Machine Rochester Rattlers Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

14 Team Rebounding Percentages Team Offensive Rebounding % Defensive Rebounding % Charlotte Hounds New York Lizards Denver Outlaws Ohio Machine Chesapeake Bayhawks MLL Average Boston Cannons Florida Launch Atlanta Blaze Rochester Rattlers Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

15 Opposition Analysis: Team-Specific (FLA) Data (7 MLL Regular Season)

16 Off. Player Contributions (thru week ) Player PPG Points G Unassisted G Assisted G A -pt G GP Chazz Woodson Kieran McArdle Connor Buczek Dylan Molloy Jimmy Dailey Ryan Drenner Steve Pontrello Steven Brooks Sergio Salcido Tim Edwards Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

17 Catch-And-Shoot Scenarios (thru week ) Player Assisted G Assisted Shots Assisted Sh. % Kieran McArdle Chazz Woodson Steve Pontrello Steven Brooks Jimmy Dailey. Connor Buczek 7.76 Greg Melaugh. Dylan Molloy Nick Mariano 6. Tim Edwards Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

18 Dodge-And-Shoot Scenarios (thru week ) Player Unassisted G Unassisted Shots Unassisted Sh. % Connor Buczek 4. Chazz Woodson Kieran McArdle.6 Dylan Molloy Greg Melaugh 5. Martin Bowes 6 5. Jimmy Dailey Jovan Miller 6 5. Ryan Drenner 6 5. Reagan Harding 9. Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

19 Assist to TO Ratios (thru week ) Player A AO TO A-to-TO Chazz Woodson Kieran McArdle Ryan Drenner Connor Buczek Dylan Molloy Sergio Salcido 7.4 James Dailey. Sean Meagher 4. Jimmy Dailey Tim Edwards 4. Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

20 Two-Point Sh% (thru week ) Player -point G -point Shots -point Sh. % Connor Buczek 5. Steven Brooks Mark McNeill. PT Ricci. Reagan Harding. Steve Pontrello. Kieran McArdle. Sergio Salcido. Jarrod Neumann. Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

21 Fast Break Points (thru week ) Player Points G Shots Sh. % -pt G A TO Chazz Woodson Kieran McArdle Will Gural 9. Mike Unterstein 5 4. Dylan Molloy. Sean Meagher. Alec Tulett. Jovan Miller. Steve Pontrello 5. Martin Bowes. Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

22 Defensive Statistics (thru week ) Player Run Outs Rebounds CT Sean Meagher 6 PT Ricci 6 5 Tucker Durkin 6 5 Alec Tulett 5 Mark McNeill 4 Steven Brooks Tim Edwards Jason Crane 7 Liam Byrnes Mike Unterstein Courtesy of moneyballlacrosse.com (Joe Keegan et al)

23 Opposition Analysis - Shots Created total shot attempts in 7 season

24 Primary Assist to Shot Creation

25 Opposition Analysis: 7 Florida Launch Shots

26 Shooting Chart Total Shots Tracked:,68 5 season to present (thru week ) 4 variables for each shot attempt

27 Shooting Chart - Density Chart - All Shot Attempts

28 Shooting Chart - Offensive Shot Selection Goal Created and Messy Saves Clean Saves and Off Net

29 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - McArdle = Action rate (>5%) McArdle (7 Density) McArdle (7 Efficiency)

30 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Woodson = Action rate (>5%) Woodson (7 Density) Woodson (7 Efficiency)

31 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Buczek = Action rate (>5%) Buczek (7 Density) Buczek (7 Efficiency)

32 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Brooks = Action rate (>5%) Brooks (7 Density) Brooks (7 Efficiency)

33 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Molloy = Action rate (>5%) Molloy (7 Density) Molloy (7 Efficiency)

34 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Drenner = Action rate (>5%) Drenner (7 Density)

35 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Salcido = Action rate (>5%) Salcido (7 Density)

36 Shooting Chart - Player-Specific Analysis - Mariano = Action rate (>5%) Mariano (7 Density)

37 Opposition Analysis: Goaltending

38 Goaltender - Austin Kaut Total SH Attempts in 7 (thru week 7): 44 Shot Type: -pointer: 6 total attempts -pointer: 8 total attempts Goalie Analytics: Unassisted SV% % Assisted SV% - 59.% Clean Save % -.% Off. Efficiency After Save - 5.% Stats:.594 SV% (st in MLL).4 GAA (7th in MLL) 9 GP 5 wins, 4 losses

39 Austin Kaut - Density Map - All Shot Attempts

40 Shooting Chart - Kaut - Shot on Goal Results (Strong opportunities for attack from X / GLE) Goal Created Clean Save

41 Opposition Analysis: Defense

42 Density Map - All Shot Attempts against FLA

43 Shots on Goal (Defense Analysis) Goal or Messy Saves Created On Florida Defense

44 Limitations at Present Manual Player Tracking No SportVU or computer vision capability at present Access Limited League statistics, video, etc. Limited player careers / large annual roster turnover Limited collaboration on grassroots stats in the game Keegan, Malboussin, Piette, Feldman, etc.

45 Version. - Passing Networks / Graph Theory

46 Version. - Passing Networks / Graph Theory

47 Version. - Partnerships / Experiential Learning Professional / Faculty: Mr. Christopher Long (Vorpala, LLC.) Dr. Tyler Bosch (Univ. of Minnesota) Mr. Walt DeGrange and Mr. Harrison Schramm (CANA Advisors, Inc.) Student Contributors: Gabrielle Brewer, Katie Bisch, Bryce Murphy, Anton Hesse, Christopher Bowen, Shyamlee Nanda, Justin Thompson (University of Minnesota) Connor Sampson and Taylor Ferebee (Roanoke College) Christian Klipstein (Bucknell University) Connor Kipke (Furman University) Lucas Wiebenga (Central College) Tyler Schanzenbach (William Penn HS)

48 Version. (Cont d): Score and score-type (pt / -pt) probabilities Plus/Minus Models in Lacrosse - presently no TOF consideration Faceoff win % and overall team win % (Over or under-valued?) Entry Draft Considerations (Predictive Models) Offensive Tactics Ex: The Golden State Warriors theory (-pt shot heavy strategy) Player Tracking and Health Diagnostics (Wearables) Developing work in ML - Computer Vision and Motion Trajectory Analysis Goaltender and Primary Defender Contribution (LME) Expected PPSh vs. Actual PPSh

49 Thank you! Questions?