ID-3 Triathlon Road Closure Control Zonghuan Li and Mason Chen

Transcription

1 ID-3 Triathlon Road Closure Control Zonghuan Li and Mason Chen 1

2 Projective Objective and Goal Objective: build a model to manage a triathlon event Restriction: Road closure time < 5.5 hours 2

3 Building Three Models Consider three scenarios: (1) Ideal Model: proto-type modeling (2) Practical Model: consider risk assessment and risk management (3) Potential Model: further optimize the road sharing 3

4 Project Strategy Minimize Closure Cost Index (Combine Closure Time and Closure Area) have different event go together Take care of Safety and Health Risk as the Highest Priority Provide Visitors World-Class Customer Service Help stimulate local Business and Sponsors. 4

5 Hypotheses Can we control road closure time below 5.5 Hours? Can we accommodate 2,000+ players? Can we take care of safety & health risk during event? Should we start all players together? Can we hold Award Ceremony in the end? Can we overcome uncertain weather situations? 5

6 Ideal Model Apply Rule No.1: won t invite any player who cannot finish the triathlon within 4:16:46 (Player ID No.5303) based on upper outlier criteria. Total 59 players (2.8%) got impacted. Upper Outlier Criteria = Q3-1.5* IQR IQR= Q3 Q1 Q3= 75% Percentile Q1= 25% Percentile 6

7 Player Run Time Distribution After outliers trimmed, redo the Box Plot. The new distribution would be used to estimate the Triathlon Road Clouse Control. 7

8 How to Determine the Sport Sequence how will we arrange the sport sequence and make sure there is no overlap between the Bike and Run? (share) It s better to arrange Run event before the Bike event because run event is shorter than bike event. We will start with swim, then run, then bike. 8

9 Rule No.2 Trim Outliers after Run Event Apply Rule No.2: disqualify any player who cannot complete both Swim and Run event within 01:48:32 This will impact 521 participants. Rule No.2 is to prevent that the faster players may start the Bike event before the slower players completed the Run event because of safety concerns. 9

10 Practical Model Previous Ideal Model did not consider the following factors: Reserve any preparation time before the event and after the event? How to handle the players impacted by Rules No.1 and No.2? Should we separate Male Player from Female Players? Consider Safety Risk and Health Concern. Practical Model will conduct risk assessment and risk management 10

11 Should we separate Male vs. Female? Only Bike Event has shown some significant performance difference between two genders, so there is no point to separate 11

12 Potential Model How do we further optimize road closure time? Should we place these senior players in the back line when starting the Swim event? Can we claim any age dependency? 12

13 Scatterplot of Age Dependency Age is not a significant factor in deciding the Triathlon performance according to the graph because there is a poor R-square Fitted Line Plot FINALTM = AGE 04:15:00 04:00:00 S R-Sq 0.0% R-Sq(adj) 0.0% 03:45:00 FINALTM 03:30:00 03:15:00 03:00:00 02:45:00 02:30: AGE

14 Overcoming Resistance What is the impact on local traffic and people s life? How will the judges document all the records and winners across all Gender, Categories? How will we overcome the Weather Conditions? 14

15 Solutions to Resistance Define the competition awards clearly before the event Inform the players at the end zone immediately and let them know where and when is the Award Ceremony Hold this event on Weekend to avoid any impact on nearby schools, museums, downtown businesses, restaurants 15

16 Solutions Cont. We should also pick event date to avoid conflicting with other BIG events in the same city. We should hold our event in early September to early October when weather condition is more comfortable. We will choose streets with less shaper turns and down turns together. Safety is always our highest priority. 16

17 Results and Add event preparation and award ceremony and still meet 5.5 hours closure time. The potential model can achieve improvement on the Closure Cost Index. Closure Cost Index will be dropped by 10km*0.48hr*3(zones)= 14.4 (km*hr). Communicate with any player impacted by Rules No.1 and No.2, and provide them discount to attend the nearby event. Take more safety and facility logistics actions in order to accommodate 3,000+ players in one single event No discrimination on senior participants 17