Measuring Gas Supply Security

Transcription

1 Measuring Gas Supply Security An indicator for Russia-dependent Europe Pierre Noël & Sachi Findlater EPRG, University of Cambridge 31 May 2010

2 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

3 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

4 Russian gas in Europe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Russian gas as a share of EU 27 gas imports Russian gas as a share of EU 27 gas consumption Russian gas as a share of EU 27 primary energy consumption Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy; International Energy Agency

5 Russian gas in Europe

6 Russia-dependent Europe nergy Suppl ly Russia an Gas / Tota al Primary E 40% Lit Hun Lat 30% Slova 20% Aus Est Cz Ita Ger Bulg Rom Pol 10% Fin Slove Gre Nether Fra Por Irld EU27 average Belg+Lux 0% Spain Swe UK 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% Russian Gas / Primary Gas Supply Source: National statistics; BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009

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8 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

9 Definition / measure Gas supply security refers to the ability of the energy system to meet contracted final energy demand under a gas supply disruption. Concretely, in Russia-dependent Europe: What happens if supplies of Russian gas are lost on a peak consumption day?

10 Definition / measure Level of gas security depends on Fraction of gas consumption insured Depth and length of disruptions insured against Fraction of gas consumption insured Categories of customers protected, or Percentage of peak demand insured Depth: idea of N-1 Complete disruption of Russian gas supply (Exceptions: Estonia; Latvia; Poland) Length: 1 st day of disruption

11 Two options Definition / measure Enough gas flows into the system Gas consumption is reduced Economist The price goes up, some large consumers reduce or stop consumption, imports go up But none of the 13 countries has a traded gas market Security means gas contracted, fuel-switching mandated, etc.

12 Gas supply balance (peak day, N-1) Demand reduction Dual-fuel for power plants + interruptible industrials Storage withdrawal Peak gas consumption Gas that can be supplied Peak gas consumption Imports available in N-1 Gas production Gas Supply Security Indicator GSS = + as % of

13 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

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15 16.1 mcm/d

16 Greece in N-1 Security = 94% of peak

17 Indicator for 13 countries

18 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

19 16.1 mcm/d Max capacity: 12.6 mcm/d

20 Greece in N-1 Maximum security = 137% of peak

21 The January 2009 crisis LNG storage LNG unloading Regasification Total consumption M illion cubic meters 07/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2009 Data source: DESFA (Greek gas TSO) reporting to RAE (Greek energy regulator)

22 Maximum security

23 Range of gas security for Greece

24 Putting it all together

25 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

26 EU N-1 indicator

27 1. Russia-dependent Europe Contents 2. Defining and measuring gas supply security 3. An example: Greece 4. Minimum and maximum level of security 5. Our indicator v the EU N-1 indicator 6. Issues

28 Some issues How interruptible (or switchable) is interruptible? Institutional dimensions of gas security Market institutions tut s (including balancing a regime) e) Policy/regulatory institutions For countries with access to a liquid market, capacity is more important than minimum guaranteed level Can an indicator be sensible for the UK and Estonia? What is the optimal level of gas supply security? Politicians perceptions p of gas security