Addressing footfall decline St Helier. Professor Dominic Medway and Professor Cathy Parker #HSUK2020

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1 Addressing footfall decline St Helier Professor Dominic Medway and Professor Cathy Parker #HSUK2020

2 49.40% 45.70% 42.20% 39.80% 37.90% Town centre retail spend falling Base data Parliament 2014: Projection IPM

3 Axis Title Mean UK Footfall (millions) Data: Springboard

4 UK online retail sales share 25% 20% 15% 16.8% 21.5% 10% 5% 1.6% 0% Centre for Retail Research 2013/2016, UK e-retail

5 Share of retail sales online: 2016 Japan Sweden France Europe mean S Korea Germany USA UK 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Centre for Retail Research 2016

6 retailers with a strong web offering now need just 70 high street stores to create a national presence compared to 250 in the mid 2000s Centre for Retail Research

7 Retail is not dead. It is changing. It is polarising. There are towns in this country that may never see retail occupiers coming back into their high street again. Robert Noel, Land Securities

8 ,000 shops closed

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10 10 years of footfall from 20 UK towns/cities

11 Vitality and Viability

12 Literature review finding the evidence

13 A literature review? Why bother? People do not want to go into six different shops for six different articles; they prefer to buy the lot in one shop. The American Grocer, 1892 For better or worse this distributive revolution is carrying us away from shopkeeping to mass distribution McNair, 1931

14 201 factors influence vitality and viability

15 1.How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street 2.How much control a location has over the factor

16 Group work What are 5 key factors affecting the vitality and viability of St Helier? What can you do to change these factors? Are some easier to influe than others?

17 1.How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street 2.How much control a location has over the factor

18 How much control over a factor HSUK 2020 model Child-minding centre Not worth it Deliveries Opening hours Get on with it! Leadership Forget it Political climate Methods of classification Live with it Spatial structure Location How much each factor influences vitality and viability

19 How much town can influence factor 3.9 APPEARANCE 3.7 PLACE MARKETING NECESSITIES 3.5 PLACE ASSURANCE ENTERTAINMENT AND LEISURE RECREATIONAL SPACE NETWORKS & PARTNERSHIPS Anchors EXPERIENCE ACTIVITY HOURS MANAGEMENT MERCHANDISE VISION&STRATEGY 3.3 ADAPTABILITY Chain vs independent WALKING DIVERSITY RETAILERS Safety/crime LIVEABLE ATTRACTIVENESS Comparison/convenience Barriers to Entry Top 25 factors ACCESSIBLE How much factor influences vitality and viability

20 How much control do locations have? Delphi Average

21 Centre satisfaction vs online spend % centre satisfaction % clothing spend online 0 Savills, Verdict 2016

22 The change in retail is permanent not cyclical. Most town centres have lost their sense of purpose. Retail has throttled out other uses. Distressed Retail Property Tackforce

23 Footfall data: indicator of vitality

24 Are all centres the same?

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26 17 million hourly footfall counts On average each man, woman and child counted 120 times 8 billion people movements counted 105 UK towns and cities

27 + 16,999,950 rows of data

28 What does footfall tell us?

29 Footfall: The perceived wisdom Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

30 Monthly for all years Monthly for standard year

31 Can we find groups of monthly signatures with something in common? We have 12 months to look at Jan Dec, can we see any patterns? We don t know what to look for. Let a clustering algorithm (K-means) tell us what patterns in the 12 monthly footfall values lead to separate groups. We can t easily observe 12 variables at once...

32 K means flow. 1. Comparison Inputs: standard monthly footfall by town K Means Clustering 2. Holiday 3. Speciality Multifunctional Classification Types

33 Centroids: K Means K = 4 0f 112 towns

34 What type of town are you? 1. Comparison Shopping Town

35 Comparison Shopping towns Wide range of retail choice Strong retail anchor(s) Large catchment area Accessible by choice of means of transport Organise to compete with other comparison towns and channels

36 What type of town are you? 2. Holiday town

37 Holiday town Summer peak in visitors from potentially wide area Anchor may be beach or major attraction (not in town centre) Retail may not serve local community, particularly out of season Organise themselves for fun and entertainment, long hours in Summer, but could they offer more?

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40 What type of town are you? 3. Speciality town

41 Speciality towns Offer something unique and special Anchor(s) not retail Attract visitors but serve local population Have longer dwell time Organise to protect and promote identity and positioning

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43 What type of town are you? 4. Convenience town

44 Convenience town Focused on local community offer, opening times, events etc Anchor is work, public transport, food Offer convenient mix of goods and services Accessible and locally connected

45 Convenience town Organise themselves to: manage accessibility increase concentration offer reliability customer service seek to augment offer (click & collect, free wifi, start-up facilities, pop-ups etc) so enhancing convenience

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48 Group work Using the 4 town types, how would you classify St Helier?

49 1. Comparison Shopping Town 2. Holiday town 3. Speciality Town 4. Convenience Town

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52 Axis Title Data: Springb Mean UK vs St Helier Footfall (millions)

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54 A Framework for Regeneration and Development: The 4Rs Special Issue of the Journal of Place Management and Development Forthcoming

55 REPOSITIONING REINVENTING REBRANDING RESTRUCTURING

56 Poor understanding of catchment/activity? REPOSITIONING Poor perceptions? Poor offer? REINVENTING The wrong action/no action? REBRANDING RESTRUCTURING

57 If Decision making and management must become less hierarchical and myopic and more place-based and porous to allow more intelligence and input from the location. Multifunctional Centres

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