The Current Restructuring Cycle: Meltdown or Metamorphosis? Monday, April 27, :00 PM - 5:15 PM

Transcription

1 The Current Restructuring Cycle: Meltdown or Metamorphosis? Monday, April 27, 29 4: PM - 5:15 PM

2 Today s Speakers: Michael Henkin (Moderator) Managing Director and Co-Head of Recapitalization & Restructuring Jefferies & Company, Inc. Paul Aronzon Co-Practice Group Leader, Financial Restructuring Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy LLP John R. Castellano Managing Director AlixPartners Carl Goldsmith Managing Partner and Portfolio Manager Beach Point Capital Management David Hollander Partner Tennenbaum Capital Partners LLC Doug Teitelbaum Managing Partner Bay Harbour Management

3 Leveraged loan spreads remain at historical highs L+35 L+3 L+25 L+2 B Loans All BB/B Loans BB Loans L+15 L+1 L+5 L Source: Standard and Poor s LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Note: Excludes facilities in default.

4 Source: Moody s. 29 speculative grade default rates expected to be nearly as high as the Great Depression

5 Communications and media represented 5.4% of all corporate bond defaults in 21/2 Source: NYU Salomon Center. 21/22 ($ Millions) Percentage of Total Defaults Auto/Motor Carrier 4,22 2.4% Energy 8,285 5% Financial Services 8, % Leisure/Entertainment 24,679 15% Manufacturing 5, % Health Care 87.5% Miscellaneous Industries 15,39 9.3% Real Estate/Construction 2, % Retailing 5, % Communications/Media 82,78 5.4% Transportation (Non Auto) 6, %

6 After enormous growth, CLO formation and institutional loan issuance has evaporated Debt market/us$ billions 8 CLO/US$ billions High-yield Pro rata CLO Institutional Source: S&P/LCG and Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Strategy.

7 Sep-8 Oct-8 Nov-8 Dec-8 Jan-9 Feb-9 As of 3/13/9 27 saw the explosion of covenant-lite and 2 nd -lien issuance that has essentially ceased Covenant-lite 4 Second-lien 2 Jan-4 Feb-4 Mar-4 Apr-4 May-4 Jun-4 Jul-4 Aug-4 Sep-4 Oct-4 Nov-4 Dec-4 Jan-5 Feb-5 Mar-5 Apr-5 May-5 Jun-5 Jul-5 Aug-5 Sep-5 Oct-5 Nov-5 Dec-5 Jan-6 Feb-6 Mar-6 Apr-6 May-6 Jun-6 Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Jan-8 Feb-8 Mar-8 Apr-8 May-8 Jun-8 Jul-8 Aug-8 Source: Standard and Poor s LCD and S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Note: Comprises all loans, including those not tracked in the LSTA/LPC mark-to-market service. Vast majority are institutional tranches.

8 Global hedge fund assets quadrupled from before falling sharply in 28 US$ billions Estimated assets Estimated number of funds (including funds of funds) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, , 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: HFR Global Hedge Fund Industry Report.

9 The combined debt and equity markets are closed relative to activity in prior recessions Source: Dealogic and S&P LCD. Recession Number of IPOs (left axis) High-yield debt offerings (right axis) US$ billions

10 In Q1 29 the average rate on DIP financing was L + 15 and as high as 2% Summary of DIP Term Loans (Q1 29) 2, 1,8 L Mean: L + 15 bps Median: L bps LIBOR Spread 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 L L L + 11 L + 65 L + 1 L L + 15 L + 15 L + 12 L + 8 L L + 75 L + 12 L L Key Plastics EZ Lube Merisant Special Devices Smurfit-Stone Lyondell Greektown Pacific Energy Milacron Magna Entertainment Aleris Foamex Chemtura Pliant G.I. Joe's Qimonda Richmond Date 1/6/29 1/13/29 1/13/29 1/14/29 2/23/29 3/1/29 3/3/29 3/1/29 3/11/29 3/13/29 3/18/29 3/18/29 3/2/29 3/2/29 3/23/29 3/27/29 Size ($millions) $2 $54 $2 $23 $435 $6,5 $26 $143 $8 $63 $5 $95 $25 $75 $1 $4 Pricing 15% Base+45 L+11 2% L+65 L+1 L+625 L+15 L+15 L+12 L+1 14.% L+75 L+12 Base+275 L+125 LIBOR Floor N/A N/A 5.% N/A 3.5% 3.% 3.5% 4.% 4.% N/A 3.% N/A 3.% 4.% N/A 2.5% Maturity (mos) Source: Public filings.

11 Additional slides

12 Projected default rates are 4x the 1-year average 16% 14% Default rate 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Loans High-yield bonds % E 21E Source: J.P. Morgan, S&P LCD.

13 U.S. consumer credit (excl mortgages) exceeds $2.5 trillion US$ billions Source: Federal Reserve.

14 U.S. mortgage debt surpassed GDP in 25 US$ billions All U.S. Mortgage debt outstanding GDP Consumer credit outstanding Source: Federal Reserve and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

15 U.S. high-yield debt offerings US$ billions Source: S&P LCD. Recession

16 Number of IPO transactions 8 Recession U.S. Europe Source: Dealogic

17 Recent high profile 363s, liquidations and shotgun weddings

18 How long until the market recovered in past downturns? $ billions 8 U.S. Leveraged loan issuance $ billions 25 U.S. LBO loan issuance Bank Institutional Source: Thomas Reuters LPC.