SHALE PROJECTION WEBINAR SERIES
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1 Billings County, North Dakota WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA ENERGY PROJECT SHALE PROJECTION WEBINAR SERIES An Initiative of the Strom Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation at Dickinson State University
2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Our Analysts: 1. Lynn Helms, ND Dept of Mineral Resources 2. Dean Bangsund & Dr. Nancy Hodur, NDSU Our Funders: Bush Foundation Vision West ND US Dept. of HUD Regional Sustainability Planning Grant Our Moderators: Dr. Dick Gardner Don Macke Senior Fellow and Co-Director, RUPRI Center for Rural Entrepreneurship Our Local Host & Coordinator: Deb Nelson, DLN Consulting
3 ROLE OF KEY PLAYERS 1. ND Dept of Mineral Resources Describe scale, duration & pacing of Bakken development consistent with geologic resource Identify dynamic variables, i.e. deal changers 2. NDSU Dept of Agribusiness & Applied Economics Create socio-economic models that build on Helms Distribute regional impacts among counties 3. Center for Rural Entrepreneurship Concerned with community implications & policy, e.g. maximizing benefits, crowding out effects Decision aids for local leaders
4 North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources East Boulevard Ave. - Dept 405 Bismarck, ND (701) (701)
5
6 90 NORTH DAKOTA COUNTY OIL PRODUCTION, (millions of barrels) All Others Bottineau Williams McKenzie Stark Bowman Billings
7 WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WELL PROJECTIONS 1,800 to 3,000 wells/year = 2,000 expected rigs = 12,000 30,000 jobs Another 10,000-15,000 jobs building infrastructure 200 rigs can drill the wells needed to secure leases in 1 year 200 rigs can drill the wells needed to develop spacing units in 18 years 35,000-40,000 more new wells
8 Helms Bakken Development Scenarios Possible Probable Proven
9 Wild Cards Draft BLM Hydraulic Fracturing rule could double federal drilling permit approval time or worse. Draft EPA guidance on diesel fuel in hydraulic fracturing could triple drilling permit approval time or worse. Current administration budget contains tax changes that could reduce drilling capital 35-50% The future looks promising for sustained Bakken/Three Forks development World and U.S. economies continue to struggle. If China joins the downward spiral oil price could fall enough to make some areas uneconomic
10 BILLINGS COUNTY OIL PRODUCTION & # WELLS
11 Billings County Rigs and Wells Year Rigs Wells
12 120.0 jobs per drilling rig 3.0 wells per gathering contruction job jobs per frac spread 40.0 wells per frac spread per year 1.0 total jobs to support one producing well 12.0 wells per rig per year 0.85 ratio of phase 2 rigs to phase 1 rigs 0.8 ratio of phase 2 well construction jobs to phase secondary jobs per industry job INDUSTRY ESTIMATES OF EMPLOYEES PER WELL Recent industry estimates of 60 by year end 2013 Crowding out effect Housing Day care Variable currently 0.7 Direct Indirect Indirect Production 2.0 Company Rep. 1.4 Construction 0.8 Mud Engineers 0.09 pumper 2.0 Tool Pusher 0.3 Surveyors 0.8 Bit Sales 0.06 company professionals 4.0 Wellsite Geologist 0.4 Crane services 30.4 Water haulers 0.04 workover crews 8.0 Directional Drillers 2.0 Rig hauling 1.2 Fuel Haulers 0.02 roustabouts 4.0 Drillers 4.1 Other trucking 1.6 Mud Haulers 0.28 water disposal 4.0 Derick Hands 0.3 Well logging 3.3 Casing Crew 0.35 oil transportation 12.0 Floor Hands 0.1 DST services 0.8 Cementing 0.01 supply sales 8.0 Mud & cuttings 3.9 Completion Rig 0.8 regulatory 0.11 gas processing 1.1 Perforating 0.2 Biology & Botany 0.01 regulatory 6.6 Frac tank hauling 0.2 Archeology 0.9 Reclamation 8.3 Equip Mfg 1.8 Flowback testing 4.6 Roustabouts Total Well Construction Jobs per rig 1.0 Total Producing Jobs per well Note: 25% of jobs are trucking water Total trucking jobs = 36.6% New Bakken wells currently 3.5 EOR 1.5
13 Billings County Oil Industry Jobs 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Jobs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Year Prod jobs Gathering jobs Fracing jobs Drilling jobs
14 BILLINGS COUNTY PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT Year Drilling jobs Gathering jobs Fracing jobs Prod jobs Rigs Wells , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,070 Year Drilling jobs Gathering jobs Fracing jobs Prod jobs Rigs Wells , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,070
15 HELMS LIST OF DYNAMIC VARIABLES 3 Expected Ultimate Recovery of oil scenarios 3 Scenarios of secondary employment Additional Factors Not Modeled: Technology Change (Wells/pad; wells/rig/year; fracs/crew/year) Oil collection & water distribution pipelines Increased use & share of natural gas Oil price dynamics Shift towards permanent residents Crowding out of other economic sectors Hundreds of possible scenarios
16 NDSU EMPLOYMENT, HOUSING & POPULATION PROJECTIONS Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics North Dakota State University Dean Bangsund Research Scientist Dr. Nancy Hodur Research Assistant Professor Ph: Ph:
17 NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY MODEL Consistent with and builds upon Helms model Rapidly changing technology & other variables led NDSU away from trad I/O models and into uncharted territory Projects to 2036 instead of Helms 2050 Consensus, pessimistic, & optimistic scenarios Splits jobs into permanent vs transient Is more accurate at regional level Communities can affect the local distribution of opportunities, impacts, risks, and growth.
18 DYNAMIC ELEMENTS ANNUAL CHANGES OVER Drilling efficiency in ND - 10/wells/rig/yr to 12 by 2032 Employment /drilling rig FTE/rig to 100 by 2016 Oil field service 20% job reduction, trucks to pipelines Temp vs Permanent employee ratio Secondary employment from permanent employees more than doubles from 0.5 jobs per employee Base Employment constrained in Williston & Dickinson regions to show some crowding out effect Housing Mix change in type over time, more apts County Housing Share changes in some counties with trends
19 ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 North Dakota Total Direct Employment Petroleum Sector Consensus Scenario Temporary Direct Permanent Direct
20 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 ND Petroleum Sector Employment Consensus Scenario 0 Drilling & Fracing Oil Field Service Gathering Total
21 GOLDEN VALLEY BOWMAN DIVIDE State Planning Region 1 MCKENZIE SLOPE BILLINGS WILLIAMS State Planning Region 8 DUNN ADAMS BURKE MOUNTRAIL STARK HETTINGER WARD State State Williston Region Minot Region RENVILLE BOTTINEAU Planning Region Region 2 2 MCHENRY PIERCE Dickinson Region Major trade centers
22 0.6 Petroleum Employment as % of Total Employment Dickinson Region Williston Region Minot Region
23 ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Dickinson Region Composition of Employment Consensus Scenario Secondary Added Total Direct Petroleum Other Employment
24 45,000 Dickinson Region Permanent Housing Units 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Pessimstic Consensus Optimistic 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
25 ,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Dickinson Region Consensus Scenario Demand: Housing Units Total (service) Housing Units Permanent (census) Housing Units
26 80,000 Dickinson Region Permanent (Census) Population 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Pessimstic Consensus Optimistic 20,000 10,000 0
27 900 Billings County Permanent Housing Pessimstic Consensus Optimistic Billings County Consensus Scenario Service Permanent
28 1,400 Billings County Permanent Population 1,200 1, Pessimstic Consensus Optimistic 1,400 Billings Consensus Scenario 1,200 1, Service Population Permanent Population 200 0
29 BILLINGS COUNTY PROJECTIONS (CONSENSUS) Permanent Housing % Ave Annual Growth Permanent Population % Ave Annual Growth % 0.7% , % 0.7%
30 CONCLUSIONS This boom is much longer-lived than 80s boom Not last word; instead first comprehensive projection of employment, housing, and pop Best available data & best local experts Scenario of likely future; not precise prediction Our job to give you input You have the ability to affect the amount of growth that comes to your community. You decide about your community s vision for itself, and make decisions on that basis.
31 WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG? If you are too cautious: Your community will under-invest in public infrastructure and private development, You will fall short of maximizing the number of workers, new residents, and economic activity. A cautious region will have short-term crowding out of secondary spending Long-term w/o enough temp housing, oil workers may crowd out others and other sectors will lose If you are too aggressive : Over-investment in public infrastructure and private investments >> bankruptcy and higher taxes for residents left holding the bag
32 HOW CAN A COMMUNITY GET ITS SHARE? Agree on community vision & goals Conduct infrastructure planning & implement Use land use planning to encourage, condition, and site housing & community development Plan/require amenities that improve quality of life, e.g. parks, trails, rec facilities, comm. ctr. Regardless of vision, plan for increased traffic flows, truck by-passes, etc.
33 THOUGHTS? WHAT ELSE? We ve outlined a likely scenario, and flanked it with optimistic and pessimistic alternatives to offer you a plausible range of outcomes in an uncertain & dynamic world. 1. What other questions need to be answered? 2. Are there scenarios you d like to see? 3. Are there other subjects or community impacts for a webinar of lessons learned in other boomtowns?
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