Justin J. Kringstad North Dakota Pipeline Authority
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1 Justin J. Kringstad North Dakota Pipeline Authority
2
3 250,000 North Dakota Oil Production 200,000 Barrels of Oil Per Day 150, ,000 50,
4 US Williston Basin s Major Oil Pipelines 110,000 BOPD 58,000 BOPD Previously 92,000 BOPD Now 115,000 BOPD
5 Crude Oil Expansions At Least 55,000 BOPD of Capacity from Rail Facilities in 2009 Additional 51,600 BOPD Early 2010 Additional 23,000 BOPD Completed
6 500, , ,000 US Williston Basin Production* & Export Capacity Future Basin Production The Big Question BOPD 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Dependent on: Crude Oil Price Technology Rig Availability Regulatory Policy *Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be consider accurate for any near or long term planning.
7 500,000 US Williston Basin Production* & Export Capacity 450, , , ,000 BOPD 250, , , ,000 50, Tesoro Refinery *Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be consider accurate for any near or long term planning.
8 500,000 US Williston Basin Production* & Export Capacity 450, , , ,000 BOPD 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Butte Pipeline Tesoro Refinery *Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be consider accurate for any near or long term planning.
9 500,000 US Williston Basin Production* & Export Capacity BOPD 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Enbridge Pipeline Butte Pipeline Tesoro Refinery *Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be consider accurate for any near or long term planning.
10 A Closer Look *Production forecast is for visual demonstration purposes only and should not be consider accurate for any near or long term planning.
11 Options For Post Reversal of the Enbridge Portal Pipeline
12 Enbridge s Potential Portal Reversal Expansion Cromer Enbridge Pipelines Westspur EPWI System Steelman Alida Enbridge Pipelines Inc EPI Mainline Canada United States Lignite Re-activate Portal Link 12 Portal Reversal Sherwood Beaver Lodge Stanley Berthhold Minot Enbridge Pipelines North Dakota EPND System Clearbrook 12
13 Options For Post Reversal of the Enbridge Portal Pipeline 2. Potentially Accessing the Keystone Pipelines Modified From:
14 North Dakota Industrial Commission Crude Oil Pipeline Feasibility Study Bakken to Keystone Pipeline System
15 Route Selection Study Objectives North, East, and Southwest route options Pros & cons of each route Economics Capital costs Operating costs Address quality concerns Determine project timeline(s) Propose a shipping rate for the new pipeline
16 Items of Discussion 1. Pipeline Route Selection
17 Three Route Options Overview of the Three Routes Assessed
18 Items of Discussion (Continued) 1. Pipeline Route Selection 2. Hydraulics System Design Parameters Flow rate 55 MBPD (55,000 barrels per day) Maximum Operating Pressure (MOP) 1480 psig (pounds per square inch - gauge) Crude Oil Viscosity 3 centistokes (historic data average) Crude Oil Specific Gravity 0.82 (historic data average)
19 Route Hydraulics Max Q at 20 F 10" Line 12" Line 12" Line 4 Pumps 2 Pumps 4 Pumps North 63 MBPD 71 MBPD 98 MBPD West 62 MBPD 68 MBPD 95 MBPD East 56 MBPD 61 MBPD 86 MBPD
20 Items of Discussion 1. Pipeline Route Selection 2. Hydraulics 3. Interface
21 Interface Oil Sands Crude Lt. Sweet Bakken Crude Oil Sands Crude Alternative North East West Interface Volume 18,500 BBL 10,900 BBL 20,800 BBL
22 Items of Discussion 1. Pipeline Route Selection 2. Hydraulics 3. Interface 4. Opinion of Cost
23 Opinion of Cost Capital Investment (million dollars) System 10 Diameter 12 Diameter Route North East West North East West Pipeline $102 $149 $115 $118 $172 $133 Stations $54 $54 $56 $42 $41 $42 Tanks $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 $39 Totals $195 $242 $210 $199 $252 $214
24 Opinion of Cost Annual Operating Costs (million dollars) Route System Operating Costs North 10 (4 Booster Stations) $5.236 North 12 (2 Booster Stations) $3.726 West 10 (4 Booster Stations) $5.834 West 12 (2 Booster Stations) $4.120 East 10 (4 Booster Stations) $6.233 East 12 (2 Booster Stations) $4.193
25 Items of Discussion 1. Pipeline Route Selection 2. Hydraulics 3. Interface 4. Opinion of Cost 5. Economic Summary
26 Economic Summary System Route $/BBL North East West North East West $4.24/BBL $5.24/BBL $4.59/BBL $4.22/BBL $5.32/BBL $4.57/BBL Note: Tariffs are calculated based upon a 15% rate of return and 55MBPD over a 20 year life. Independent Operator needing SCADA system and upper management cost could expect a tariff of $4.30 on 12 North Route
27 Items of Discussion 1. Pipeline Route Selection 2. Hydraulics 3. Interface 4. Opinion of Cost 5. Economic Summary 6. Project Schedule
28 Simplified Project Timeline 3 rd or 4 th Qtr 2009-Design, Permits, etc. 1 st Qtr Begin Service 2 nd Qtr Construction
29 Items of Discussion 1. Pipeline Route Selection 2. Hydraulics 3. Interface 4. Opinion of Cost 5. Economic Summary 6. Project Schedule 7. Route Suggestion
30 Study s Suggested Route Shortest Route Lowest Capital Investment Following Bakken Development Trend Lowest Tariff
31 Study Overview Route North East West Pipeline Length 169 Miles 240 Miles 188 Miles System System Capital Cost (Millions) $195 $199 $242 $252 $210 $215 Pipeline Cost/Mi $602M $698M $621M $715M $615M $707M Ops Cost ($/bbl) $0.26 $0.19 $0.31 $0.21 $0.26 $ % $4.24 $4.22 $5.25 $5.32 $4.59 $4.57 IRR ($/BBL) Interface Volume* 18.5MBBL 10.9MBBL 20.8MBBL *Interface Volume per Batch Shipped on TransCanada/Keystone Pipelines
32 Summary Anticipated that North Dakota will need additional capacity for transporting crude oil to market after 2010 Two options being actively pursued Enbridge s proposed portal reversal New interconnecting pipeline Full report available on the NDPA website: NDPA looks ahead with optimism as we continue to develop North Dakota s pipeline infrastructure
33
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35 Thank You! North Dakota Pipeline Authority 600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405 Bismarck, ND Phone: (701) Fax: (701) Website:
Justin J. Kringstad North Dakota Pipeline Authority
Justin J. Kringstad North Dakota Pipeline Authority November 2008 May 2009 250,000 North Dakota Oil Production 200,000 Barrels of Oil Per Day 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1949 1956 1963 1970 1977 1984 1991
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