THUNDER BAY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AUTHORITY BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Transcription

1 THUNDER BAY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AUTHORITY BOARD OF DIRECTORS PRESIDENT & CEO, CHARLES CIRTWILL RESEARCHER, CURTIS MCKNIGHT 31 OCTOBER, 2017

2 First - Definitions Natural Logarithm- A statistical transformation that allows very large numbers to be seen more easily on a graph. The trend lines and mathematical connections are unaffected by this scaling. Elasticity of Demand- The larger this number is, the stronger the apparent response is in one variable to a change in another. For example, -4 means that there is a large NEGATIVE correlation between population and air travel. Air travel is going up as population falls. Correlation coefficient- The closer this number is to 1 (positive or negative) the stronger the linkage between two variables are. For example,.01 is virtually no connection,.99 would be an almost perfect connection. Statistical significance A relationship may be strong but it also must be statistically significant. 10% is considered the base threshold, 5% is very significant, 1% is even more so. All of the relationships found here were either significant or very significant, indicating the relationships shown can be relied on for analysis and direction.

3 A Disconnect Thunder Bay Population vs. Air Traffic Natural Log(population) Total Population Total Air Traffic OLS estimated coefficient= (elasticity of demand)

4 If population does not predict travel, what does? 8 International Gold Prices vs. Air Traffic Natural Log(gold price) Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May- Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 Sep-16 Time 10 Ln(goldprice) Ln(airtraffic) OLS estimated coefficient= (elasticity of demand)

5 Makes Sense Higher price = more workers Gold Mining Employment vs Gold Prices Prices, USD$ Number of People Total Gold Mining Employment Gold Prices

6 Another Disconnect 11.3 Young Age Population vs. Air Traffic Natural Log(ages 0-39) Ages 0-39 Air Traffic Correlation coefficient= , significant at the one-percent level.

7 Maybe it is about ability to pay? Middle Age Population vs. Air Traffic Natural Log(ages 40-69) Ages Air Traffic Correlation coefficient= , significant at the one-percent level.

8 Or, availability of leisure time and having reasons to go 9.8 Old Age Population vs. Air Traffic.7 Natural Log(ages ) Ages Air Traffic Correlation coefficient= , significant at the one-percent level.

9 Having kids might not be good for travel, grandkids on the other hand Age Group OLS Estimated Coefficient R-Squared 0 to to to to to to to to to and above All coefficients are significant at the point-one percent level, except for age category three.

10 By the way, Post-secondary students drive air traffic too 9.1 Lakehead Enrolment vs. Air Traffic.6 9 Natural Log(total enrolment) Total-lakehead Air Traffic

11 But not just ANY PSE Students 8.2 Ontario Enrolment at Lakehead University vs. Air Traffic Natural Log(total enrolment) Air Traffic NWO-Lakehead Other Ontario-Lakehead NWO correlation coefficient= , significant at the five-percent level. Other Ontario correlation coefficient= , significant at the one-percent level.

12 And, not necessarily international or non-ontario students 6.4 Enrolment of Students From Outside of Ontario vs. Air Traffic.6 Natural Log(total enrolment) Air Traffic Other Prov. & Int.-Lakehead Correlation coefficient= , significant at the ten-percent level.

13 PSE impact COULD include college too, but not yet (20-29 year olds don t appear to fly, and still not big non-region enrolment) 8.15 Confederation College Enrolment vs. Air Traffic Natural Log(total enrolment) Total-Confederation Air Traffic Correlation coefficient= , not significant at the ten-percent level.

14 Thank You. Merci. Miigwech QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? 1 (807) info@northernpolicy.ca /NorthernPolicy