Consideration of horizontal scales exposes the challenging nature of the problem
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1 ln E Consideration of horizontal scales exposes the challenging nature of the problem Downscale Enstrophy Cascade Meso- : TC, MCS, gravity waves km Upscale Energy Cascade Synoptic Easterly Waves Hydro instability of ITCZ Subtropical intrusions 2,000 8,000 km Meso- : Easterly wave critical layer Isolated recirculation K regions Inertia gravity waves 200 2,000 km ln k Meso- : VHTs, Congestus, Precip. Driven downdrafts, Gust fronts km
2 Wave-Pouch Tracking Methodology Front page imagery Methodology for determining initial position Phase speed determination Zonal method (RH & v) Oblique method Track creation Methodology for determining level Meso- diagnostics Zeta, OW, RH, Vertical Shear Satellite/analysis (over to LeeJoice)
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5 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Nondevelopers Developers Wave-ITCZ Interaction Diabaticall y activated? SAL / midlevel dry air: Killed or Survived? No above within Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves 97L PG01L No No No NA PG02L PG03L PG04L PG05L PG06L Maybe. SAL to east Maybe. In SAL Maybe. In SAL Maybe. In SAL
6 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Nondevelopers Developers Wave-ITCZ Interaction Diabaticall y activated? SAL / midlevel dry air: Killed or Survived? No above within Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves PG07L PG08L PG09L PG10L Claudette PG11L Ana PG12L Bill PG13L
7 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Nondevelopers Developers Wave-ITCZ Interaction Diabaticall y activated? SAL / midlevel dry air: Killed or Survived? No above within Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves PG14L PG15L PG16L PG17L Danny PG18L PG19L PG20L Erika
8 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Nondevelopers Developers Wave-ITCZ Interaction Diabaticall y activated? SAL / midlevel dry air: Killed or Survived? No above within Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves PG21L PG22L PG23L PG24L Shear PG25L Fred PG26L Killed PG27L
9 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Nondevelopers Developers Wave-ITCZ Interaction Diabaticall y activated? SAL / midlevel dry air: Killed or Survived? No above within Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves PG28L PG29L TD08L PG30L PG31L PG32L Henri PG33L
10 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Nondevelopers Developers Wave-ITCZ Interaction Diabaticall y activated? SAL / midlevel dry air: Killed or Survived? No above within Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves PG15L PG12L Bill PG20L Erika PG25L Fred PG24L Shear PG26L Killed
11 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Did not develop Developed Wave-ITCZ Interaction SAL / mid-level dry air No Weak Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves Killed Survived PG06L Maybe. In SAL PG07L PG08L PG09L *sheared by PG08L PG10L Claudette PG11L Ana
12 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary No Did not develop Weak Developed Wave-ITCZ Interaction Intensified on ITCZ PG12L Bill Excited new waves SAL / mid-level dry air Killed Survived PG13L *Sheared by PG12L PG14L *Never left Africa PG15L *In Bill s wake PG16L *Barbados surprise PG17L Danny (Shear from ULL) (Eventually, as Jimena in Eastpac)
13 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Did not develop Developed Wave-ITCZ Interaction SAL / mid-level dry air No Weak Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves Killed Survived PG18L *Never left Africa PG19L *Ejected PG22L, died PG20L Erika PG21L *dry wave PG22L *north ejection of PG19L PG23L Wave/ split at islands
14 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Did not develop Developed Wave-ITCZ Interaction SAL / mid-level dry air No Weak Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves Killed Survived PG24L 95L, E.Atl northward PG25L Fred, E.Atl northward PG26L 98L, C.Atl fizzle PG27L Northward Africa coast fizzle PG28L C. Atl fizzle PG29L TD08L, E.Atl northward
15 2009 GRIP / PREDICT Dry Run Summary Did not develop Developed Wave-ITCZ Interaction SAL / mid-level dry air No Weak Intensified on ITCZ Excited new waves Killed Survived PG30L Models liked it over Leewards PG31L PG32L Henri PG33L 92L, joined Henri s wave?
16 Examples (Use website) Intense (clear-cut) Bill Weak (not as easy) Danny PG10L (pre-claudette) Unique regeneration PG25L (Fred) Models killed, killed, killed it lived, lived, lived PG29L Sept 24/00 Models killed it, but Survived (in midst of SAL) and became TD08L
17 PG29L/TD08L 24/00 Analysis
18 PG29L/TD08L 24/00 72h Forecast PG29L Dissipated Trailing PG31L
19 PG29L definitely not dissipated MISS PG29L/TD08L: 27/00 Verifying Analysis PG31L Weak FALSE ALARM
20 Plans for 2009 Test Cases Get flight data from 2009 cases Test OW = 2 x 10-9 s -2 formation threshold
21 Still Need to Understand Role of wave s phase speed on formation
22 New Diagnostics Wish List Diabatic Activation (i.e., persistent convective activity). Use visible/infrared/microwave satellite imagery Warm & dry air from middle level tropical atmosphere or African continent (SAL products, real time? ) Trade wind inversion (real time) CAPE (real time) CIN (real time)
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