HURRICANE IKE 13SEP2008 BRIEFING REPORT

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Oliver Osborne
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1 DISTRICT 7 HURRICANE IKE 13SEP2008 BRIEFING REPORT ATON Status Key West Harbor Main Channel Cut A Range Front Light - Extinguished o Not impacting continued safe navigation DISTRICT 8 Port Status (Sector New Orleans) Morgan City... YANKEE (Sector Houston-Galveston) Lake Charles... ZULU Orange... ZULU Port Arthur/Beaumont... ZULU Houston... ZULU Freeport... ZULU Texas City... ZULU Galveston... ZULU Port Lavaca/Point Comfort... ZULU (Sector Corpus Christi)...Corpus Christi... XRAY MTS Impact Oil company personnel have been evacuated from a total of 596 production platforms, equivalent to 83.1% of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil company personnel have been evacuated from 101 rigs, equivalent to 83.5% of the 121 rigs currently operating in the Gulf. This shut-in oil production is 1,267,187 BOPD which is equivalent to 97.5 % of daily production of oil in GOM, which is currently approximately 1.3 million BOPD. This shut-in gas production is 6.99 BCFPD which is equivalent to 94.4 % of the daily production of gas in the GOM, which is currently approximately 7.4 BCFPD. The DHS National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) analysis for a Cat 4 impact in the Houston Area notes the following as High Impact categories: o Petrochemical Sector: Highest concentration of specialty and commodity chemical plants (303) in the US. o o Vessels in Queue Natural Gas: There are 158 compressor stations and 107 processing plants and 21,000 miles of pipeline in the potential affected area. Petroleum Refineries: Refining capability could drop by 18 million Bbls per week with some oil and natural gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico shut down for an extended time frame. This impact could be significant enough to cause temporary price increases. National production capacities of a significant number of petrochemicals are expected to be disrupted: 90% of VAM (Vinyl Acetate) production: adhesives, paints, construction laminates, packaging, textiles; 80% of Propylene Oxide production: polyurethane foam, polyester resins, and specialty plasticizers; 70% of Acrylonitrile production: thermoplastics, nylon resins and fibers, wastewater chemicals, acrylic fibers, and nitrile rubber; 70% of Cyclohexane production: nylon fiber manufacturing. References are listed at the end of this report 1

2 Multiple vessels will develop in a vessel queue as the ports and waterways remain closed to traffic. Port Coordination Teams will jointly work queue and cargo management issues. From the Port of Galveston: Carnival Cruise Lines has started calling on when a cruise ship can call on the port. They were notified that the channel may not be open until Tuesday at the earliest. Continued contact with Carnival representatives will be maintained. Waterways Management Actions (Sector Houston-Galveston) Safety Zone remains in effect for the COTP Zone. The Gulf Intracoastal Canal Association (GICA) reports that multiple barge fleeting areas in Texas are closed and not accepting additional barges. Final storm preparations are underway to minimize the risk of barge breakaways. Anticipating gale force winds to make landfall within 12 hours, all vessel owners and operators of self propelled oceangoing vessels over 500 gross tons, oceangoing barges and their supporting tugs have requirements to meet if their vessels and barges have been approved to remain in port. o These requirements are outlined as follows: * Machinery plant must be in immediate standby; * Cargo and bunkering operations must cease; * A radio watch must be maintained on VHF-FM Channel 16; * All ports, hatches, portholes and other openings shall be closed and secured; * Sufficient crew must be onboard to tend mooring lines and control the vessel in the event of an emergency; and * At least two anchors must be ready for letting go. Upon their final inspection, vessels and facilities are to advise the Captain of the Port HG of any unusual or dangerous situations. Mooring plans for the barges include triple wires and standby tugs. They have been moved out of high risk areas (example, Texas City, Galveston) and relocated out of the AOR or to an area where there is a lower risk of breakaway or damage if they do breakaway. Waterways and Navigation System: Deep Draft Channel A number of ports are in condition Zulu with waterways closed to traffic. 11 of 20 deep draft channels are not available. Calcasieu River (LKCD) Houston Ship Channel o Port Condition Zulu Cameron Jetties (LKCD) Lake Chas/Calcasieu to Sea Buoy Upper Houston Ship Channel (north of Fred Hartman Bridge) Lower Houston Ship Channel (South of Fred Hartman Bridge) Freeport Channel Texas City Channel References are listed at the end of this report 2

3 Bayport Turning Basin Barbours Cut Turning Basin Galveston Channel Waterways and Navigation System: Non-Deep Draft Channels A number of ports are in condition Zulu with waterways closed to traffic. 3 of 11 non-deep draft channels are not available. Mermentau River (LKCD) GIWW (MM ) (LKCD) Contraband Bayou (LKCD) Waterways and Navigation System: Locks Several locks closed until further notice, one lock (Colorado Rivers Locks) secured in the open position and listed as partially available. 3 of 4 locks are not available. Port Area - Critical Infrastructure: Bridges 25 of 89 bridges are not available. Current bridge status may be obtained online at Port Area - Critical Infrastructure: Bulk Liquid Facilities 156 of 174 bulk liquid facilities are not available. Port Area - Critical Infrastructure: Container Facilities 7 of 7 container facilities are not available. Port Area - Critical Infrastructure: Non-container Facilities 60 of 78 non-container facilities are not available. Port Area - Critical Infrastructure: Shipyards 4 of 11 shipyards are not available. Port Area - Critical Infrastructure: Pass/Ferry Terminals 11 of 15 pass/ferry terminals are not available. Port Area - Vessels: Passenger and Ferries Ferries have halted operations due to evacuation of areas and predicted weather conditions. 3 of 3 passenger and ferry vessels are not available. References are listed at the end of this report 3

4 Port Area - Vessels: Small Passenger 1 of 1 small passenger vessel is not available. Port Area - Vessels: Gaming Facilities closed due to anticipated weather and evacuations in potential impact area. 3 of 3 gaming vessels are not available. Port Area - Vessels: Barges Tug and barge traffic is secured while at Port Condition Zulu. 1 of 1 barge vessel is not available. References are listed at the end of this report 4

5 Hurricane Forecast/Advisory 000 WTNT24 KNHC TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL UTC SAT SEP AT 10 AM CDT UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM EAST OF SARGENT TEXAS EASTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 10 AM CDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SARGENT TEXAS WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 65NE 85SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 425SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 95.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 95.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.7N 92.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.6N 86.2W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 44.5N 77.2W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 95.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z References are listed at the end of this report 5

6 Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone References are listed at the end of this report 6

7 Port Hurricane Conditions APPLICABILITY - Owners, operators or agents of all self-propelled oceangoing vessels greater than 500 GT and all barges and their support tugs. WHISKEY (72 HRS) Anticipation - Gale force winds from a tropical cyclone within 72 hours. Port Status Open to all Commercial Traffic. Actions - All vessels report their intention to depart or remain in the port to the cognizant COTP. Vessels remaining in a hurricane mooring or anchorage prearranged w/ the COTP should make note of this reporting their intentions. Submit remain in port Checklists to COTP w/in 24 hours. X-RAY (48 HRS) Anticipation - Gale force winds from a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Port Status Open to all Commercial Traffic Actions - Port Condition X-Ray is a 48 hour alert. At this notification, all oceangoing commercial vessels and oceangoing barges greater than 500 gross tons are to make plans for departing the port area. The Captain of the Port of each particular zone will issue Marine Safety Information Bulletins (MSIB) to keep stakeholders advised of status. All remain in port checklists/requests submitted to the COTP & evaluated w/ decisions on a case-by-case basis (COTP Orders issued as appropriate). YANKEE (24 HRS) Anticipation - Gale force winds from a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. Port Status Traffic Control Measures in effect Actions COTP accept or direct as necessary final mooring arrangements for vessels remaining in port. Post storm, COTP controls movements as necessary. ZULU (12 HRS) Anticipation - Gale force winds from a tropical cyclone within 12 hours. Port Status Closed to all vessel traffic except for vessel movements & activities specifically authorized by the COTP. References (a) SITREP FIVE - HURRICANE IKE, P Z SEP 08 CCGDEIGHT NEW ORLEANS LA (b) HURRICANE IKE LANTAREA SITREP NINE, P Z SEP 08 COMLANTAREA COGARD PORTSMOUTH VA (with Hurricane IKE, Gulf of Mexico Executive Summary (c) -- END - References are listed at the end of this report 7

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