Aim What factors are associated with pedestrian crash risk at intersections in concentrated urban environments?
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- Noel Bryant
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2 Aim What factors are associated with pedestrian crash risk at intersections in concentrated urban environments?
3 Road Trauma Chain Humans Licensed Crossing Speed Hazards Vehicles Roads Registered Roads opened Travel Distance Time Mass System failure Human error
4 Haddon Matrix Human (Road User) Physical Environment Vehicle Pre- Crash Crash Post- Crash
5 Hierarchy of pedestrian data needs Human Behaviour Socioeconomy Demography Lawfulness Cognitive capabilities Employment Income Speeding Jaywalking Fleet composition Education Vehicle Technology Crash avoidance Speed adaptation Pedestrian detection Urban planning Road Geometry Physical Environment Land use Transport system Environment Built roadway Public transport Road hierarchy Traffic management Clutter Micro Road crossing AADT Exposure Macro Vehicle volume Travel speed
6 Pedestrian Data Needs Matrix
7 Rationale Physical Environment Land use mix (Alcohol, Crossroads of shopping strips, Official, Recreational, Residential) Specific road designs 1. Pedestrian hub 2. Walking promotion Transport System Transport modes (bicycle/motorcycle, tram, heavy vehicles, horse-drawn carriage) Speed Ped crash clusters Over-represented road user Road User Over-representation of young and male Tourists Walking under influence Distraction
8 Case study Central Business District (CBD) of Melbourne City of Melbourne
9 Dependent variable 1 CBD intersection crashes ( ) 2 Weekday crashes 3 Daytime (07-18) 4 Hours of darkness (19-06) Daytime Hours of darkness Change in trips characteristics (purpose, OD ) Socio-demographic changes Traffic changes Behaviour changes
10 Exposure P 15 m V P V (P V) 0.5
11 Explanatory Variables Vehicle (% heavy vehicles) Land use Human (Sociodemography) Public transport Spatial Built roadway
12 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Spatial data Recreational Social Personal Business Work Related Education Buy Something Blocks 3 Blocks 2 Blocks 1 Block Distance walked for different purposes Victorian Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity (VISTA) 25
13 Land use Amusement and gaming centre Office Entertainment/ recreation (indoor/outdoor) House, institutional accommodation, residential apartment, student apartment All retails Bar, tavern, pub, night club Cinema, theatre, concert hall, stadium Commercial accommodation, hostel, backpacker House, townhouse, residential apartment, serviced apartment, student apartment Café, restaurant, bistro, food court Floor space area Capacity
14 Public transport Sociodemography Bus/Tram Stops Routes Stops Routes Train Distance form the nearest railway station Number of employed people Population
15 Built roadway Geometric design Lanes (major/minor) Left/Right turn lanes Grade Divided/undivided Tram tracks Traffic management Clearance distance of on-street car parks Exclusive bus/bicycle lanes Hook-turn possibility Posted speed (major road) Road hierarchy Major/Minor intersection Number of ways Clutter Number of street signs Legs fronted with shops
16 Method 1 Standard Poisson/Negative Binomial 2 Entering exposure (rate; fixed; normal) 3 Forward stepwise (Likelihood ratio) 4 Zero-inflation (ZIP; ZINB; Vuong s test) 5 Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) 6 Spatial autocorrelation CBD: Moran s I; Semiovariogram Corridor: Generalised Estimating Equations (GEE)
17 Results
18 Vehicle 1. Restaurant, café, bar, pub, club (FS - 800m) 1. Restaurant, Café, bar, pub, club (FS - 100m) Land Use Built Roadway Public Transport Sociodemography 1. Minor intersections 2. Non-divided 3. Hook-turn possibility 4. More legs fronted with shops 5. More left-turn movements (%) 1. Bus routes (500m) 2. Distance from the nearest main railway station (Closer INTs) _ 2. Accommodation (C - 150m) 3. Cinema, theatre, concert hall (C - 300m) 4. Amusement and gaming areas (C - 900m) 1. Minor intersections 2. Non-divided
19 Key messages 1 Temporal and spatial variety of risk 2 Blanket interventions and Safe System 3 Interventions: concentrated v area-wide 4 Risk factor types: immediate/future developments planning
20 Further research 1 Human/vehicle factors 2 Serious (MAIS3+) injuries 3 Spatial/temporal validations
21 Questions?
22 Exposure
23
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