Riding More. Frequently:

Transcription

1 Riding More Frequently: Disaggregate Rid dership Elasticity Estimation for Chicago s Bus Network Charlott te Frei Hani S. Mahmassani Northwestern t University it Transportation ti Center Transport Chicago 1/19

2 Source: flickr user clapifyoulikedinosaurs lik Transport Chicago 2/19

3 Objec ctives Purpose of Elasticity: Note direct and indirect ridership ln E( Y X) % ΔY ln X % Δ X influences on transit Comparative magnitude indirect influences of external and Transport Chicago 3/19

4 Estimates of Tra ansit Elasticities Typical analysis is macro-levelemployment and zonal travel l population, times Macro-level analyses can not capture the shift in supply and demand curves from population and employment chang es How to capture parcel and block-level effects? Transport Chicago 4/19

5 Agencies manage a relatively small portion of factors that influence transit use Land use density and mix, parking prices and supply, income, car ownership, employment and population characteristics Transit fare, service frequency and span, comfort, cleanliness, (speed and reliability) (Speed and relia ability), dwell time, convenience, walk quality, attitudes, safety, security, gasoline prices as influen nce on transit fare Transport Chicago 5/19

6 Da ata Stop-level boardings, aligh htings and frequency of CTA buses in 30-minute intervals CMAP s 2005 Land Use Inventory Crimes from City of Chicag go data portal Indicator for presence of CTA rail, Metra, or Pace Population and employment data by CMAP subzone Median income by census tract Transport Chicago 6/19

7 Transport Chicago 7/19

8 Transport Chicago 8/19

9 Walk Quality Jackson Boulevard and State Street Source: Chicago Tribune, May 31, 2013 Transport Chicago 9/19

10 vs. Wa alk Score amenities within.25 miles receive maximum points, and no points are awarded for amenities further than one mile 0-24: Car-Dependent, Almost all errands require a car; 25-49: Car-Dependent, A few amenities within walking distance; 50-69: Somewhat Walkable, Some amenities within walking distance; 70-89: Very Walkable, most errands can be accomplished on foot; : Walker s Paradise, daily errands do not require a car. Transport Chicago 10/19

11 v v v 11 ln( b t,r,s )= α + β h ln( h t,r,s )+ β e ln( b t,r,s a μ + λ a X s + λ μ X t,s a A μ Μ + u U λ ux t ) + β ϖ ln( ϖ s )+ β ϕ ln Y ϕ,z ϕ Φ z Z u v +ε t,r,s ( ) X s z Headway Ridership in previous time period Walk score Socio-demographics Land use Presence of other modes Time periods Transport Chicago 11/19

12 Results 1% change in Yields -- % change in ridership Sig. Level Past ridership (dynamic term) -- Frequency of service Walk Score Time of Day Varies.001 Presence of CTA Rail/Metra -/+.001 Income Crime Non-retail employment Land Use + mixed use, medical, educ Household vehicles Population and retail employment - for 18+ population, + otherwise.05 Transport Chicago 12/19

13 Land Use Transport Chicago 13/19

14 Res sults Studies using aggregate data overestimate the effect of frequency on network ridership Sensitivity of peak and of ff-peak ridership not as extreme as suggested Transport Chicago 14/19

15 Conclu usions Unique attributes of service areas should be considered Transit provision may sup pplement school buses and healthcare delivery for persons without cars Distance to amenities is more important than population density or m ixed land use alone context of TODs Transport Chicago 15/19

16 Implications for service delivery Setting frequency to maximize ridership, subject to constraints t and anticipated i t c hanges in demandd Transport Chicago 16/19

17 Limita ations Influences on other modes, like parking and fuel costs, should be included Attributes that enhance service- like new rail cars or buses, bus tracker- can influence attitudes and perceived service quality Need to examine over longer time horizon to capture responses to fare and fuel costs simultaneously Complementary/competing modes Transport Chicago 17/19

18 Further Reading On this work, TRB compendium of papers: On Chicago's neighborhood effects: Great American City by Robert J. Sampson On transit elasticity Litman, T. Transit Price Elasticities and Cross-Elasticities. Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 2, 2004, pp Chen, C., D. Varley, and J. Chen. What affects Transit Ridership? A Dynamic Analysis Involving Multiple Factors, Lags, and Asymmetric Behavior. Urban Studies, Vol. 49, No. 9, 2011, pp Taylor, B.D., D. Miller, H. Iseki, and C. Fink. Nature and/or Nurture? Analyzing the Determinants of Transit Ridership Across US Urbanized Areas. Transportation Research Part A, Vol. 43, 2009, pp Thompson, G., J. Brown, T. Bhattacharya, and M. Jarozynski. Understanding Transit Ridership Demand for a Multi-Destination, Multimodal Transit Network in An American Metropolitan Area. Report CA-MTI Mineta Transportation Institute, RITA, U.S. Department of Transportation, Available Transport Chicago 18/19

19 Thank you! Omer Verbas, NUTC Scott Wainwright, Alex Cui, Jon Czerwinski, CTA Greg Newmark, RTA Transport Chicago 19/19