1 NORTHCOAST SPORTS POWER PLAYS Power Sweep Newsletter Contest Winner 4 Straight Years!! Northcoast Sports Service VOLUME 29 ISSUE 3 September 15-19, 2011 COLLEGE 4.5H s OPEN THE SEASON 4-0 NOW ON A % RUN!! 5H GAME OF THE MONTH IS HERE!! FREE TO ALL 2011 POWER PLAYS SUBS! NEWS AND NOTES - WEEK THREE 2011 NEWS AND NOTES - Arizona had a young O-line making its first road trip and was also without top WR Jevon Criner. Oklahoma St dominated going 88/9pl, 80/12pl and 70/10pl on their first 3 poss for a 21-0 lead while UA had 2 FD s on their first 3 poss. OSU led 21-0 at the half and was never threatened. QB Brandon Weeden hit 22 of his first 23 passes and finished FIU got their first ever win against a BCS foe and did it with 3 big plays. For the game Louisville had a 24-9 FD edge but UL s first drive was 10pl but not only ended on an int, Winston Fraser ret d it 71 yds for a TD. FIU got a short pass to TY Hilton who took it 74 yds for a TD then Hilton split the DB s and got behind them for an 83 yd TD pass and FIU stunningly led UL did blow a couple of opportunities in the game. Trailing they were SOD on 4&1 at the FIU12, SOD on 4&13 at the FIU36 and then scored a TD with 1:49 left to pull within but FIU rec d the onside kick. Hilton set a school record with 201 yds receiving...it was an interesting Friday nighter for Missouri and Arizona St. Each team settled for a some FG s after long drives and MO led at the half thanks to a blk d xp. ASU scored TD s on 89/10pl and 60/7pl drives and led with 14:23 left in the game. The Devils then forced a punt on 4&18 but fmbl d the punt then pass interference on 3&15 gave MO a FD and MO got a 25 yd TD pass on the next play. On MO s next drive they converted on 3&14 and later on 4&gl from the 3 to tie it with 2:50 left. MO did miss a 48 yd FG with :12 left and ASU won it on a TD in OT...Oregon St came in as a banged up team vs Wisconsin and was only outgained but didn t do themselves any favors. They had a -4 yd punt in the 1Q setting up the Badgers first TD, a 3&13, 17 yd pass 3pl later. An OSU PF pen on the punt gave UW the ball at their own 49 and Wilson hit a 10 yd TD pass on 3&5.The Badgers added a TD with :27 left in the half to lead Once again OSU benched QB Katz early and Mannion took almost all of the snaps. OSU fmbl d at the UW13 and was SOD at the UW17 on 2 of their last 3 drives...it s not very often that a team has 1 FD for an entire game. In fact the last time Michigan St held an opponent to just 1 FD was back in 1944 vs Maryland. MSU scored a TD or a FG or missed a FG on their first 8 drives then got a 39 yd FR TD to lead FAU 44-0 with 8:22 left and finally punted for the first time with 3:36 left in the game. They had a yd edge...army did have a yd edge vs SDSt but were -3 in TO s. Army fmbl d at the SDSt42, fmbl d at their own 26 and trailed 14-0 but it was at the half with Army having a yd edge. Army was SOD at the SDSt48 and on their final drive, down by 3, were on the fringe of FG range on 3&19 from the 34 when they took a 6 yd sack and had to go for it on 4&25 and fired incomplete...toledo scored their first points ever vs Ohio St having lost their previous 2 vs the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-0 in 98 and 09 as they nearly upset OSU. In fact, OSU needed a 69 yd PR with :46 left in the half to lead In the 2H TOL had a bad snap on a 51 yd FG and on their final drive they took over with 3:08 left and got to the Buckeye15 but on 4&5 fired incomplete and came up 5 pts short. TOL had a yd edge...illinois had their biggest win since 1944 as they scored on 7 consec drives and rolled to a 56-3 win. They had 27-6 FD and yd edges. SDSt did not get their first FD until the 2Q and had just 54 yds offense at the half. Illinois FB Becker left the game in the 1H and may be out for the season. It was 42-3 when bkp QB O Toole came in with 8:58 left in the 3Q guiding the team to a 30/4pl TD drive...tough loss for C Michigan vs Kentucky and the key play came on a 4th down gamble. In the 1H CM went on an 81/16pl drive and settled for a 19 yd FG. Later they went 67/12pl settling for a 31 yd FG. They had a yd edge but only led 13-6 at the half. On their 3rd 3Q poss, they went for it on 4&inches at their own 34 and were SOD. On the next play, UK got a 34 yd TD pass UK was then pinned at its own 13 when they got an 87 yd TD run to take their first lead, and finally drove 85/13pl for a TD with 5:35 left to clinch it. CM finished with a yd edge but lost by double digits...alabama s D gave up 54/16pl on the opening drive of the game for a 43 yd FG and pretty much controlled the 1H with a yd edge settling for a 22 yd FG after one 10pl drive and led Bama got a TD by Richardson with 6:14 left as he rushed for 111 yds and 2 TD s. Penn St then went 71/14pl incl 3&10 and 3&20 conversions and got a garbage TD with 1:53 left for a big part of their 251 yds...n Carolina had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Rutgers and were actually outfd d but that is not indicative of the game. NC had a yd edge in the 1H but due to the TO s, only led They led with 1:12 left in the 3Q when RU went on a 62/13pl drive including a 4&12 conversion getting a TD with 10:40 left. RU s last drive went 33/9pl but on 4&7 they were SOD at their own 42 and NC ended the game at the RU7...Nobody gave Auburn a chance vs Miss St after their poor performance vs Utah St but they managed to extend the NCAA s longest win streak to 17 and were highly motivated by being nearly a TD dog at home. AU led 14-0 but after MSU tied it at 14, AU gave up a 27 yd IR TD. AU still rallied and led at the half and then got a TD with 14:03 left in the game for a commanding lead and even forced a MSU punt with 9:43 left. MSU went 83/12pl getting a TD with 4:51 left then forced a punt with 2:52 left. MSU drove 67/11pl. On 2nd & gl from the 2 with no time-outs, they swept QB Relf and he was tkl d at the half yd line...iowa had a 10-0 lead early vs Iowa St but it was at the half. ISU led but UI drove 80/11pl and got a TD with 5:50 left and the 2 pt conv put them up ISU s last drive in regulation featured a 3&16, 20 yd pass, a 3&20, 40 yd pass, a 4&1 conv and then on 3&gl got a 4 yd TD run. UI scored in the first of 3OT s with a TD and ISU faced a 4&gl at the 4 and got a TD to keep the game going. In the 3rd OT UI got a FG and ISU a TD for the win. ISU had not scored a meaningful TD vs UI since E Carolina QB Davis had 260 yds and 4 TD s vs South Carolina but finished with just 127 yards passing, an int and was sk d 5 times. Virginia Tech did have FD and yd edges but blew a couple of opportunities and actually needed a TD with 7:30 left to take their first lead of the game in their win. VT got a 38 yd drive for a TD after a 30 yd punt, on 1st & gl from the 6 were int d in the EZ and after having a FD at the EC14 settled for a 39 yd FG at the end of the half. VT s winning drive was 89/13pl for the TD with 7:30 left and EC s last 2 poss ended on a punt with 5:33 left from their own 26 and on 4&18 they fired incomplete from their own 43 and VT took a knee...idaho QB Reader threw for 299 yards and 4 TD s and UI s D had 2 IR TD s. UI finished with yd and FD edges. They missed a FG and settled for a FG and only led 3-0 when N Dakota got a 79 yd PR TD to stunningly lead 7-3 (9:37 2Q). ND then got a 54/1pl TD pass 14-3 (7:33 2Q). UI went 80/15pl for a TD with 1:01 left in the half then went 71/6, 58/9, 91/11, their first 3 3Q poss to lead They blew it open late when a 19 yd IR to the ND18 set up a 1pl 1 yd TD run by Bass then 2pl later with bkp QB Goska in for ND, the Vandals got a 37 yd IR TD with 4:41 left for the final...tulsa/tulane was a 3-3 game with 4:08 left in the half. TLN was at the TLS35 but on 3&15 they were int d and TLS went 73/6pl for a TD and a 10-3 lead. TLN s first two 3Q drives ended in a missed 44 yd FG and a fmbl at the TLS23 and TLS had TD drives of 82, 77 and 67 yds to go ahead TLN fmbl d at the TLS39, was SOD at the TLS42 and punted on their final 3 drives...the key play o the Arkansas St/Memphis game happened early 2Q when Memphis, down 10-0, was SOD on 4&1 at the ASU29. ASU got a 71 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 16-0 and would go 82/13pl and 90/11pl for TD s on their next 2 poss to blow it open at the half. ASU scored 2 TDs and a FG on their first three 3Q poss, the 2nd 2 led by bkp QB Smith and they had a yd edge...ohio U had a dominant 22-9 FD and yd edges vs Gardner-Webb. OU got scoring drives of 40 and 28 yards and also got an IR TD but also blew some scoring drives. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 but fmbl d, missed a 53 yd FG, fmbl d at the GW47, were int d at the GW35, SOD at the GW15 and settled for a 24 yd FG with 4:51 left...dan Persa sat out a 2nd straight game and Kolter hit yd and rushed for 109 for Northwestern. Kolter inj d his shoulder and only returned for a few plays later with 3rd string QB Trevor Siemian guiding 2 drives incl a 1 yd TD pass with 11:01 left and then Watkins was in for the final NW 2 drives. NW on 4&8 at the EI22 just ran the ball in the line for 3 yds with 1:27 left and EI got a 76 yd run and a 3 yd garbage TD with :07 left to make the stats closer than they really were at NW Nothing misleading about the Wash St/UNLV final. WSU scored on their first 5 drives of the game as Marshall Lobbestael hit and they then scored on their first 3 drives of the 2H with the 3rd drive being led by bkp Halliday. WSU made it 59-0 with 5:29 left and LV s only score came on a 95 yd KR TD. WSU s final drive was SOD at the LV20 and they also had a 35 yd FG blk d...southern Miss appeared in control vs Marshall as they were up 17-3 and had the ball with 2:00 left 1H. They only got off a 27 yd punt and MU went 41/7pl for a TD, In the game SM turned it over SIX times and had a punt blk d. SM fmbl d at their own 35 early 3Q setting up a MU TD. MU took the lead with a TD with 1:19 left 3Q. SM was pinned at its 1 and RB Hardy was tkl d for a safety and MU led SM fmbl d at the MU27, settled for a 28 yd FG then rec d the onside kick but as you would expect, with 1:00 left on 3&10 ended the game on their 6th TO, an int at the 43...New Mexico St/Minnesota looked to be a high scoring game as at the half, NMSt had a lead and a yd edge. They even blew a couple of scoring opportunities in the 1H as UM had a 1st & gl at the 4 but was int d in the EZ and NMSt missed a 45 yd FG. UM missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q but down 28-21, the Gophers had a 1st & gl at the 7 and got the game tying TD with 7:54 left to make it but replays respotted the ball at the footline and on 4&gl at the footline UM was stopped. NMSt got 4 FD s and punted and UM got to the NMSt25. Coach Kill had a seizure on the sideline and the game was halted for a half hr and when they ret d UM s 4th&10 pass fell incomplete and NMSt held on for the upset...texas/byu was played in 98 heat and BYU wilted in the 2H with UT having a yd edge. UT QB Gilbert was benched and QB s Ash and McCoy alternated on every poss the rest of the game. Gilbert had a couple of costly int s and BYU jumped to a 13-0 lead. UT settled for a 23 yd FG late 1Q. In the 2H UT was SOD on 4&1 at the BYU13 and then up 17-16, had the ball at the BYU30. RB Brown broke off a run and had a shot but was tkl d at the 14 of BYU and the Longhorns took a knee 2x... continued on page 2
2 cont. from Front Page Not many teams survive a defensive TO for a TD. It s extremely rare when a team wins a game having 2 def TD s go against them. Georgia pretty much controlled the S Carolina game from start to finish. In fact 3 of their first 4 drives got to the RZ but they settled for 3 FG s and actually missed a chipshot 33 yd FG and led 6-3. SC ran a fake punt on 4&7 at their own 32 and DT Ingram got a FD and the 276 lb r raced 68 yds for a TD. In the 3Q UGA appeared in control again leading and had the ball at the SC39. RB Crowell, who hurt his ribs in the 1H was not 100% and fmbl d when SC ret d it 57 yds to the 5 basically a TO for a TD as SC got a 5 yd drive for a TD. SC then got a 25 yd IR TD to lead UGA tied it and then retook the lead but again was sk d & fmbl d and SC ret d it for a TD. At the end, SC rec d an onside kick and got a FD and took a knee. Basically 4 def and ST TD s vs UGA and they only lost by 3... Connecticut/Vanderbilt was a pure defensive struggle. The two teams combined for 12 sks for -72 yds, there was 2 def TD s and a blk d punt for a TD. CT fmbl d at their 42 setting up a 42/1pl TD pass for VU and VU went 80/6pl for a TD to lead 14-3 after 1Q with the 2Q producing 5 FD s combined and 7 punts and 2 TO s. After an int CT drove 6 yd for a 28 yd FG then blk d a punt for a TD, and got a 64 yd FR TD in the 4Q to lead VU got a 50 yd IR TD with 6:45 left to tie then after a 48 yd run by Stacy got a 31 yd FG with 2:56 left for the lead. UConn on 4&16 fired incomplete from their own 25 with 2:09 left. GAME UNDER THEIR BELT ADVANTAGE - Florida was impressive for a 2nd straight week. They settled for FG s on their first 2 drives. UAB had 2 of their first 3 drives getting 2 FD s and had another FD wiped out by a hold on the first drive and punted. On their 3rd drive UAB got a 38 yd TD pass after 2 FD s but it was wiped out by illegal shift and on 4&2 they were SOD. UAB had a snap go over the P s head for a safety with 2:32 left and after the extremely poor free kick UF drove 52/5pl for a TD with 1:09 left to score 9 pts in the final 2:32 and open it up UF had a yd edge at the half. In the 2H UAB had a FD at the UF30 and fmbl d then ran a fake punt from its own 36 and was SOD setting up a UF 36/3pl TD drive. The Gators finished with yd and FD edges and led 39-0 after 3Q before putting the offense away in the 4Q. UF had the advantage of a game under their belts as both teams who didn t play the opening weekend were blown out... Darron Thomas matched a school record with 6 TD passes as Oregon rebounded from their LSU loss with a win. The loss snapped Nevada s 7 gm win streak as they came out of last season 13-1 and ranked #11. Tyler Lantrip took over at QB for Kaepernick (NFL) and hit yds and rushed 10x for 51 yds. UO led after 3Q and the Ducks scored 2 TD s in the last 2:24, one after UN was SOD at their own 27 and the 2nd on a 68 yd IR TD with :20 left. REPLACEMENTS - Mike Glennon, the man who replaced Russell Wilson at NCSt hit yds but a lot of it came in the 2H with NCSt down At the half WF had a yd edge. With Tanner Price at QB, WF led SU by 15 when he was inj d in Wk1. He ret d to the lineup and hit yds completing his first 8 passes. NCSt did pull within on a 4&10, 63 yd TD pass with 5:34 left. NCSt s final drive got to the WF38 and on 4&10 they dropped what would have been a sure a FD pass. POINTSPREAD PLAYS OF THE GAME - Keith Price is replacing Jake Locker at Washington and he hit his first 8 passes hitting yds. UW survived the dreaded 14 pt swing in the 2Q threatening to take a 28-7 lead on 3&8 from the 10 Price was int d and ret d 99 yds for a TD. In the 1H UW had a yd edge and led Hawaii did fmbl at the UW5 and were SOD at the UW9 in the 1H. The pointspread play of the game came after UH took over at the UW27 following a -5 yd punt and they trailed They got a TD with 1:39 left for the apparent backdoor cover. The xp would have put them under the spread but UW blk d the xp and ret d it for 2 and instead of only trailing it was an 8 pt game at UW rec d the onside kick...usc had a yd edge vs Utah but a 3-1 TO deficit. The Trojans were SOD at the Utah32, int d at the Utah15, had a FD at the Utah12 and fmbl d and Utah which had been outgained drove 84/12pl for a TD with :34 left in the half to get back in it at USC led 17-7 when a fmbl set up Utah for a 51/1pl reverse to the 1 and a TD on the next play to make it USC had a 47 yd FG wiped out by a false start pen and punted and the next 8 poss were punts. Utah took over at their own 33 and on the controversial final drive they had an int dropped by a LB and on 4&10 were spotted short but they reversed the spot via replay it and gave them the FD at the 38. A pass interfere pen gave Utah a FD to the 23 with :11 left and the Utes lined up for the game tying 41 yd FG. It was blk and ret d for a TD. The officials originally wiped it off the board as the USC players came on the field while the ret was in progress and the final was announced The P12 stepped in and said the P12 rule is that unsportsmanlike conduct penalties by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Therefore the TD was allowed making it and giving USC the frontdoor cover. FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS - AF came in expecting an upset and while they actually had a yd edge, AF gained 128 of their yds in the 4Q when trailing TCU had the game locked up 35-9 and AF surprisingly went for a 22 yd FG on 4&4 with 8:18 left. Still their next 3 poss were punts and AF took over at their 22 with the score and still Under the Total. AF would get 2 FD s and then a 33 yd pass to the 4 with :28 left and with :04 left in the game, a 1 yd TD run put the game Over the total, Once again, AF had 128 of their yds in the 4Q...Colorado St has won the last 16 meetings in this series and are vs N Colorado. This time they had 28-9 FD and yd edges but NC got a garbage TD with 6:43 left to only lose by 19. CSU got a saf with 10:23 left for a 33-7 lead and had the game in hand. After the free kick they got 2 FD s to the NC28 and were running out the clock when they fired inc on 4th down. On the next play, NC got a 66 yd TD run to get the backdoor with 6:27 left. CSU went 47/10pl and they ran out the clock. THE MOST UNIQUE POWER RATINGS IN THE COUNTRY These Power Play Forecasts are the most unique in the country because they are based on Northcoast Sports Private Power Ratings. Our ratings are unlike any computer rating, as we take into account all of the following: Strength of Opponents Individual Units (Rushing Offense and Defense, Passing Offense, & Defense, Scoring Offense and Defense, Garbage Yards, Weather, Injuries, Home Field Edge, and Successful Unbalanced Attacks). Here is how each is reflected: Strength of Opponent: Our ratings do not just take the opposing team s overall power rating into account. For example, in 1992, Washington s defense vs the rush was rated at a 110 (From 1-100). They faced Colorado and allowed 183 yds rushing and dropped 12 spots in the national rushing defense ratings. However, Power Plays took into account the potent Buffalo run attack and had forecasted the Huskies yielding 225 yds. Due to the fact they did better than the forecast, Power Plays raised their rating to 112 even though they slipped in the national (straight yardage) rankings.another example was Michigan vs Purdue in Michigan held Purdue to just 45 yards rushing and improved their ratings in rushing defense in the national statistics. However, our ratings had them rated at a 102 and moved them down to 99, as they should have yielded just 32 yards to an impotent Purdue rush attack. Next time an announcer on TV tells you that a certain team is #3 in the country vs the run you better check Northcoast Sports Power Ratings and see how good a rush defense they really have! The top twenty ratings in Power Ratings for each offensive and defensive category will be listed in each week s issue of Power Plays. Garbage yards: These are yards that a team gains or allows in the final minutes of a game when it has been decided. For example, Team A is ahead 63-0 and allows 93 yards passing for a TD vs its fourth string defense. These yards are counted into national ratings, but not in Northcoast Sports Power Ratings! Weather: If a game is played in miserable weather conditions and is low scoring, the straight statistics credit the defense with outstanding performances. Our Power Ratings reflect the conditions and do not give excess credit to the defenses. Injuries: When South Carolina played NC State in 1989, South Carolina QB Todd Ellis was injured on the third play of the game. His backup, who had seen very little action all year, was not prepared and hit on just 4 of 13 passes for 65 yards. The offensive coordinator did not risk any passes. In the national statistics NC State s pass defense MOVED UP 14 NOTCHES. In Phil s Power Ratings they stayed the same, as the low yardage WAS NOT reflective of an outstanding performance by the defense. Home Field Edges: The weekly projection of yards and points is weighted with the home field factored in. Successful Unbalanced Attacks: In 1989, Ohio St was held to 127 yards passing vs Northwestern. This dropped OSU in the national passing offense ratings & RAISED the Wildcats in the pass defense ratings. In our ratings the two units remained rated the same. Why? OSU rushed for 456 yards & DID NOT HAVE TO PASS & when they did they hit 9 of 11 passes, which is VERY effective. While Northwestern s pass defense looked good in the national ratings, only Northcoast Sports Power Ratings reflected the TRUTH! There you have it. More than just numbers, THESE RATINGS REFLECT the true strength of each unit and allow them to have the most accurate forecast of yards gained and points allowed in the country! No other rating system takes into account all the previous factors. Next time you hear that a team is rated third in the country in pass defense, just remember, yards are not everything and Northcoast Sports Power Plays will show you how strong the team really is. NORTHCOAST SPORTS PLUS OR MINUS POWER RATINGS The Power Ratings listed below are not based on the Power Plays, they are based on last year s final computer power rating numbers with the pluses and minuses from the off season changes factored in. They are then adjusted during the course of the season based on the final score of the games that are played on a weekly basis. The Power Ratings listed below can be used for you as a base power ratings to forecast up coming lines and strength of opponents, etc. Once again, they are not based on Power Plays and they differ from what we have shown in recent years, which has been our actual computer Power Ratings. These are Northcoast Sports Plus or Minus Power Ratings. CONFERENCE USA Tulsa UCF Houston S Mississippi SMU East Carolina Rice Marshall UAB UTEP Tulane Memphis BIG EAST ACC SUN BELT Florida St USF FIU Virginia Tech West Virginia Arkansas St Maryland Cincinnati Troy NC State Pittsburgh ULM Miami, Fl Connecticut North Carolina Louisiana Louisville Georgia Tech Middle Tenn Clemson Rutgers WKU Wake Forest Syracuse North Texas Virginia Florida Atlantic Boston College Duke INDEPENDENT Notre Dame BYU Navy Army MAC N Illinois Toledo W Michigan Miami, Oh Temple Cent Michigan Bowling Green Ohio Ball St Kent St Buffalo Akron E Michigan WAC Nevada Hawaii Louisiana Tech Fresno St Utah St San Jose St Idaho New Mexico St PAC-12 Stanford Oregon Arizona St USC Washington Utah Washington St Arizona UCLA California Oregon St Colorado BIG TEN Start Wisconsin Ohio St Penn St Nebraska Illinois Michigan Michigan St Northwestern Minnesota Iowa Purdue Indiana SEC Alabama Arkansas LSU Mississippi St South Carolina Florida Auburn Tennessee Georgia Mississippi Kentucky Vanderbilt BIG 12 Current Oklahoma Oklahoma St Texas A&M Texas Missouri Texas Tech Kansas Baylor Iowa St Kansas St MOUNTAIN WEST Boise St TCU Air Force San Diego St Wyoming Colorado St New Mexico UNLV
3 WEEKLY MATCHUP STAT COMPARISON TEAM PPG Off Rush Off Rush Off Pass Off PPG Def Rush Def Rush Def Pass Def Off Avg YPG YPC YPG Comp % Def Avg YPG YPC YPG Comp% A LSU H Mississippi St A Boise St H Toledo A Iowa St H Connecticut A West Virginia H Maryland A Auburn H Clemson A Pittsburgh H Iowa A Akron H Cincinnati A Wyoming H Bowling Green A Eastern Michigan H Michigan A Temple H Penn St A Central Michigan H Western Michigan A Mississippi H Vanderbilt A Duke H Boston College A Kansas H Georgia Tech A Colorado St H Colorado A Northern Illinois H Wisconsin A Miami, Oh H Minnesota A Tennessee H Florida A Michigan St H Notre Dame A Virginia H North Carolina A Texas H UCLA A Washington H Nebraska A Texas Tech H New Mexico A Northwestern H Army A Nevada H San Jose St A Tulane H UAB A Navy H South Carolina A Washington St H San Diego St A Louisville H Kentucky A Houston H Louisiana Tech A Marshall H Ohio A Idaho H Texas A&M A Buffalo H Ball St A Arizona St H Illinois A Kent St H Kansas St A Syracuse H USC A Oklahoma H Florida St A UTEP H New Mexico St A Ohio St H Miami, Fl A Utah H BYU A Oklahoma St H Tulsa A Hawaii H UNLV A Stanford H Arizona A ULM H TCU A Arkansas St H Virginia Tech A UCF H FIU A North Texas H Alabama A Troy H Arkansas Listed below are Northcoast Sports Power Play Rankings. These Power Play Rankings are unique. Our rankings are unlike any computer ranking, as we take into account all the following: Strength of Opponents, Individual Units (Rushing Offense, Rushing Defense, Passing Offense, and Passing Defense) Garbage Yards, Weather, Injuries, Home Field Edges, and successful Unbalanced Attacks. Regular rankings based solely on numbers DO NOT take into account these factors. RUSH PASS SCORING RUSH PASS SCORING OFFENSE OFFENSE OFFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE 1 Houston 1 Florida St 1 Ohio St 1 Texas 1 Ohio St 2 Texas Tech 2 Houston 2 Miami, Fl 2 Florida 2 Nebraska 3 Hawaii 3 Oregon 3 Texas 3 Nebraska 3 Miami, Fl 4 Arkansas 4 Georgia 4 TCU 4 Iowa 4 Texas 5 Oklahoma 5 Arkansas 5 Georgia 5 Miami, Oh 5 Florida 6 Arizona 6 Auburn 6 Pittsburgh 6 Arizona 6 S Carolina 7 Texas A&M 7 Stanford 7 Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7 TCU 8 Tulsa 8 Virginia Tech 8 Boise St 8 TCU 8 Iowa 9 Boise St 9 Boise St 9 LSU 9 Ohio St 9 Clemson 10 Florida St 10 Ohio St 10 Penn St 10 Boise St 10 Oklahoma 11 Missouri 11 TCU 11 Florida 11 UCLA 11 Oregon 12 NC State 12 Wisconsin 12 Mississippi St 12 Alabama 12 Alabama 13 Cincinnati 13 Alabama 13 Alabama 13 Miami, Fl 13 West Virginia 14 Washington 14 Texas A&M 14 USC 14 Wisconsin 14 LSU 15 Duke 15 Oklahoma 15 Boston College 15 Oklahoma 15 Notre Dame 16 Miami, Fl 16 Florida 16 Syracuse 16 Clemson 16 Boston College 17 SMU 17 California 17 Oregon 17 South Carolina 17 Mississippi St 18 BYU 18 USC 18 S Carolina 18 Oregon St 18 Arizona 19 San Diego St 19 Texas Tech 19 California 19 Kansas St 19 Penn St 20 Purdue 20 Tulsa 20 Iowa 20 Army 20 Georgia 1 Oregon 2 Navy 3 Georgia Tech 4 Nevada 5 Ohio St 6 Wisconsin 7 Virginia Tech 8 Air Force 9 Alabama 10 TCU 11 Kansas St 12 Army 13 Auburn 14 Michigan 15 Illinois 16 UAB 17 USC 18 Georgia 19 Penn St 20 Mississippi St RUSH PASS SCORING RUSH PASS SCORING OFFENSE OFFENSE OFFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE 101 Arkansas St 101 Vanderbilt 101 FIU 101 North Texas 101 Duke 101 Memphis 102 Kent St 102 Temple 102 N Illinois 102 Duke 102 Tulane 102 North Texas 103 Louisiana-Lft 103 Ohio 103 WKU 103 Arkansas St 103 FIU 103 Troy 104 Ohio 104 N Illinois 104 UL Monroe 104 Mid Tenn 104 UAB 104 Houston 105 W Michigan 105 Wake Forest 105 Vanderbilt 105 Vanderbilt 105 Marshall 105 N Mexico St 106 Purdue 106 Tulane 106 Mid Tenn 106 UNLV 106 Temple 106 Indiana 107 Idaho 107 San Jose St 107 Ohio 107 W Michigan 107 Troy 107 San Jose St 108 Fla Atlantic 108 Akron 108 Memphis 108 Indiana 108 Washington St 108 East Carolina 109 E Carolina 109 Mid Tenn 109 Louisiana 109 Wyoming 109 Louisville 109 Fla Atlantic 110 Texas Tech 110 WKU 110 Army 110 Washington St 110 WKU 110 FIU 111 New Mexico 111 Illinois 111 Wyoming 111 Bowling Green 111 UTEP 111 Tulsa 112 San Diego St 112 Ball St 112 Buffalo 112 San Jose St 112 Idaho 112 UTEP 113 NC State 113 Kansas St 113 E Michigan 113 FIU 113 Indiana 113 Louisiana 114 FIU 114 N Mexico St 114 Bowling Green 114 Houston 114 Nevada 114 UL Monroe 115 Tulane 115 UAB 115 New Mexico 115 WKU 115 Tulsa 115 Tulane 116 Miami, Oh 116 E Michigan 116 Colorado St 116 Fla Atlantic 116 UL Monroe 116 Toledo 117 Bowling Green 117 Georgia Tech 117 Akron 117 Tulane 117 Toledo 117 New Mexico 118 Wyoming 118 Air Force 118 N Mexico St 118 UTEP 118 Memphis 118 WKU 119 Hawaii 119 Navy 119 San Jose St 119 N Mexico St 119 E Carolina 119 Washington St 120 SMU 120 Army 120 Tulane 120 E Michigan 120 New Mexico 120 E Michigan 2011 TOUGHEST OPPONENT UNITS FACED WHAT ARE THE TOUGHEST OPPONENT RANKINGS? These rankings go far beyond the NCAA s straight statistical ranking of each team. For example last year Notre Dame ranked #89 in the NCAA in rush defense allowing 170 ypg, but ranked #40 in our rush defense rankings because they faced the toughest schedule of rush offenses in the NCAA LY. As you can see, the NCAA s statistical rankings can be misleading. In the upcoming weeks we ll provide examples of this year s statistical disparities. These are the current rankings for this year. Here are the teams that have took on the toughest & easiest schedules last year. RUSH PASS SCORING RUSH PASS SCORING OFFENSES OFFENSES OFFENSES DEFENSES DEFENSES DEFENSES 1 New Mexico 1 SMU 1 Louisiana 1 Marshall 1 Rice 1 Utah St 2 Ohio 2 Utah St 2 Utah St 2 Hawaii 2 WKU 2 WKU 3 Marshall 3 USC 3 Oregon St 3 Rice 3 Utah St 3 Marshall 4 UNLV 4 Miami, Oh 4 Miami, Oh 4 Oregon St 4 Miami, Oh 4 Rice 5 San Jose St 5 Fresno St 5 UNLV 5 San Jose St 5 S Mississippi 5 Miami, Oh 6 Oregon St 6 Illinois 6 San Jose St 6 Utah St 6 Marshall 6 S Mississippi 7 E Michigan 7 Purdue 7 Marshall 7 Louisiana-Lft 7 Oregon St 7 Hawaii 8 Louisiana 8 S Mississippi 8 Arkansas St 8 Purdue 8 North Texas 8 Oregon St 9 Temple 9 BYU 9 New Mexico 9 Akron 9 San Jose St 9 San Jose St 10 UCLA 10 Washington 10 SMU 10 New Mexico 10 New Mexico 10 North Carolina 11 Missouri 11 Texas Tech 11 BYU 11 Miami, Oh 11 Arkansas St 11 North Texas 12 Connecticut 12 Notre Dame 12 Toledo 12 Memphis 12 Kansas St 12 New Mexico 13 Hawaii 13 Toledo 13 Fresno St 13 Utah 13 North Carolina 13 Purdue 14 Florida Atlantic 14 East Carolina 14 Connecticut 14 Illinois 14 Memphis 14 Memphis 15 Utah 15 Arkansas St 15 Rice 15 WKU 15 SMU 15 Louisiana 16 Arkansas St 16 Bowling Green 16 WKU 16 W Michigan 16 Colorado St 16 Arkansas St 17 Memphis 17 Rice 17 Illinois 17 Virginia 17 Toledo 17 Utah 18 North Texas 18 Florida 18 S Mississippi 18 North Texas 18 Hawaii 18 Kansas St 19 Utah St 19 Louisiana 19 North Texas 19 S Mississippi 19 Duke 19 Illinois 20 WKU 20 W Michigan 20 East Carolina 20 UNLV 20 Purdue 20 TCU RUSH PASS SCORING RUSH PASS SCORING OFFENSES OFFENSES OFFENSES DEFENSES DEFENSES DEFENSES 99 California 99 California 99 West Virginia 99 Miami, Fl 99 Wyoming 100 Texas Tech 100 Baylor 100 Tulane 100 Tulane 100 UCF 101 Iowa 101 Tennessee 101 Arkansas 101 Texas A&M 101 Miami, Fl 102 USC 102 Wake Forest 102 Ball St 102 Stanford 102 Houston 103 Wyoming 103 Ball St 103 Army 103 Tennessee 103 Indiana 104 Baylor 104 Florida St 104 NC State 104 Ball St 104 Tennessee 105 Duke 105 USF 105 Air Force 105 Baylor 105 Kent St 106 Houston 106 San Diego St 106 Baylor 106 Air Force 106 Buffalo 107 Wake Forest 107 NC State 107 San Diego St 107 San Diego St 107 Tulane 108 Tulane 108 West Virginia 108 Miami, Fl 108 Idaho 108 LA Tech 109 Texas A&M 109 Cent Michigan 109 Wyoming 109 Nevada 109 Air Force 110 Arkansas 110 Kent St 110 Houston 110 Wake Forest 110 Wake Forest 111 NC State 111 Penn St 111 Kent St 111 Temple 111 Baylor 112 Kent St 112 UTEP 112 UTEP 112 UTEP 112 UTEP 113 UTEP 113 Air Force 113 Wake Forest 113 UCF 113 San Diego St 99 Florida St 100 NC State 101 UTEP 102 Air Force 103 Rutgers 104 LA Tech 105 Kent St 106 Miami, Fl 107 Indiana 108 Ball St 109 Temple 110 Penn St 111 E Michigan 112 Ohio 113 San Diego St 3
4 COLLEGE FOOTBALL September 15-17th, 2011 NOTE: Power Plays - PP Welcome to this week s issue of Power Plays. The Power Plays Newsletter consists of forecasts that are made by a special Power Plays rating system. This is a system developed many years ago and we regard it very highly. In our final analysis of the plays the Power Plays forecast takes up anywhere from 25 to 30% of our total analysis. You will see in the Power Plays Newsletter in the write-ups that we agree with the majority of the Power Plays forecasts. However, there are times when we will disagree with the Power Plays forecast. We want to make it clear that this is the Power Plays Newsletter and these forecasts are based purely on the power ratings. You should never use just one method, system or angle to determine your handicapping. The times that we disagree with the Power Plays Newsletter we will clearly note it. If the Power Plays rating is strong enough to be a 4 Play, yet we are on the other side of the game, we will clearly state that we like the other side of the game. With all that said here are this week s Power Plays Selections. THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 15th LSU MISSISSIPPI ST NO PLAY: LSU 29 MISS ST 27 Get our Thursday Night Marquee Winner after 3:00 pm ET. See below for details on how to get this week s Winner!! FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16th BOISE ST TOLEDO NO PLAY: BOISE ST 38 TOLEDO 21 IOWA ST CONNECTICUT NO PLAY: CONNECTICUT 26 IOWA ST 19 Get marquee winners on thursday and friday Call after 3:00 pm ET on both Thursday and Friday for you winners! Just 15 each 1 Games 2 Games Thursday Friday midweek MARQUEE plays AVE BY USING YOUR NORTHCOAST DEBIT CARD - Pay Only 9 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 17th WEST VIRGINIA MARYLAND Quite a drastic change for this WV ball club as PP is forecasting only 25 yds rushing. While Maryland is projected with a yard edge the score is even so we ll pass. NO PLAY: WEST VIRGINIA 31 MARYLAND 31 AUBURN CLEMSON We like Clemson coming in and after dissecting this forecast we like it even more. PP is forecasting a yard Clemson edge and an end to Auburn s 17 game win steak. 4H CLEMSON 39 AUBURN 32 PITTSBURGH IOWA Pitt takes to the road for the first time under new HC Graham to Iowa who is off a loss to in-state rival Iowa St. PP has Iowa with a small yardage edge but with the score near the line. NO PLAY: IOWA 26 PITTSBURGH 24 AKRON CINCINNATI Cincy s offense is getting closer to resembling the 09 unit. While they re off a loss to Tenn it s still a respectable performance to reach 396 yds. With a yard edge, it will be a top play. 4H CINCINNATI 47 AKRON 8 WYOMING BOWLING GREEN Both teams come in 2-0 and PP is calling for a BG win in both yards and on the scoreboard. With Wyoming on their first and unusual road trip to the Midwest, we ll pass. NO PLAY: BOWLING GREEN 29 WYOMING 23 E MICHIGAN MICHIGAN As you d expect PP has the Wolves with a yd edge. The concern here is a letdown which PP can t handicap and with that miraculous come from behind win vs ND, we lean with the dog. NO PLAY: MICHIGAN 48 E MICHIGAN 3 PENN ST TEMPLE Let s talk difference of opponent. Penn St is off a loss against our #1 team in the Power Poll while Temple is off a 41-3 win vs our #120 team (dead last). We like the Nittany Lions here. NO PLAY: PENN ST 24 TEMPLE 20 C MICHIGAN W MICHIGAN Western has dropped 5 straight in this series (0-4-1 ATS) and they ve had this game circled the entire off-season. PP says they will get redemption and finish with a yard edge. 4H W MICHIGAN 31 C MICHIGAN 21 4 MISSISSIPPI VANDERBILT In the first 2 games of this season Vandy has matched their win total at home over the previous 2 seasons. In a pick em game against an SEC foe the going gets tougher. We like Ole Miss. 4H MISSISSIPPI 30 (if dog or even) VANDERBILT 27 DUKE BOSTON COLLEGE The BC offense has struggled without RB Harris and he may return here. PP still has the Eagles with a yard edge. The Forecast is for a BC win by a TD which is at the line. No play. NO PLAY: BOSTON COLLEGE 27 DUKE 20 KANSAS GEORGIA TECH Not too hard to figure out what to do here. GT seeks revenge from LY when they were ranked #15 and lost as a 13 pt fav. This week they maul Kansas and finish with a yard edge. 4H GEORGIA TECH 41 KANSAS 24 COLORADO COLORADO ST Can t imagine a much tougher spot for Colorado. Off a trip to Hawaii, an OT loss to Cal and Ohio St on deck versus a motivated little brother who is 7-2 ATS in this series when +4 or more. 4.5H COLORADO ST 23 (+) COLORADO 28 WISCONSIN N ILLINOIS All signs point to the underdog as PP is calling for a Wisky win. What makes this more intriguing is the yardage forecast which has the Huskies ONLY getting outgained H N ILLINOIS 29 (+) WISCONSIN 40 MIAMI, OH MINNESOTA Minny was out of their element LW as a 3 TD fav but this week they re only laying a FG to a MAC team. Miami has only 1 game of exp TY and that was vs MO with a Fri Night P12 road gm on deck. 3H MINNESOTA 21 MIAMI, OH 16 TENNESSEE FLORIDA Two years ago Florida was a 30 pt HF and while UT has closed the talent gap, we re not sure how much. PP calls for the Gators to have a yd edge covering the 9 pt line easily. 2H FLORIDA 32 TENNESSEE 19 MICHIGAN ST NOTRE DAME When others throw teams under the bus PP stays unemotional and grabs the value. The forecast is for the Irish to have a yd edge after outgaining BOTH USF and Mich with 500+ yds in each. 3H NOTRE DAME 30 MICHIGAN ST 21 VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA With the number near the line and NC having a yard edge, we ll pass. NO PLAY: NORTH CAROLINA 29 VIRGINIA 22 TEXAS UCLA The word revenge will be tossed around after UCLA traveled to Austin LY and came away with a win. PP is calling for another low scoring game with Texas finishing with a yard edge. NO PLAY: TEXAS 23 UCLA 19 Non-Subs Can GET THE 5 FOR 75 Call Or Get the Entire Weekend! Play released Saturday (9/17/11) after 11:15 am ET See page 8 20 Winning Sept 5H Saturdays in 29 Years!
5 WASHINGTON NEBRASKA We like Nebraska in this 3rd matchup in 2 seasons but with a 13 pt forecast we ll pass. NO PLAY: NEBRASKA 33 WASHINGTON 20 TEXAS TECH NEW MEXICO With the line at 19 we don t mind backing an improved Lobo s team that is forecasted to only get outgained by a yard edge. TT hasn t been tested and is off a bye so expect a slow start. 1H NEW MEXICO 17 (+) TEXAS TECH 36 NORTHWESTERN ARMY It can be a negative backing NW as an AF but PP has them finishing with a yard edge but more importantly an 18 pt win. Those numbers are void of QB Persa who may return here. 3H NORTHWESTERN 37 ARMY 19 NEVADA SAN JOSE ST Yards are close ( ) and points are close (28-26) but with UN only having one game in the books (gained 516 yds at Oregon) we ll wait on this one. NO PLAY: NEVADA 28 SAN JOSE ST 26 TULANE UAB We don t want to back PP in this one as UAB is 0-4 ATS as a DD fav the L4Y s combined. NO PLAY: UAB 32 TULANE 19 NAVY SOUTH CAROLINA When teams face an option attack early in the season it s a great advantage to prep in the summer. Not quite the case for SC who is in an SEC sandwich after a VERY fortunate win LW. NO PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA 45 NAVY 21 WASHINGTON ST SAN DIEGO ST SDSt had an emotional trip to Army LW and has another cross country trip to face their ex-hc. Now they re a TD fav against a P12 team that has posted offensive performances of 590 and 610 yards? 4.5H WASHINGTON ST 33 SAN DIEGO ST 31 LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY This will be an in-state rival slugfest. PP is calling for the Wildcats to win their 5th straight in the series. The projection is for UK to have a yard edge and with the number at 7 we ll pass. NO PLAY: KENTUCKY 19 LOUISVILLE 11 HOUSTON LA TECH Houston s offense hasn t missed a beat averaging 580 ypg the first 2. This week PP is calling for the Cougars to finish with a yard edge. We lean with UH but with the line higher we ll pass. NO PLAY: HOUSTON 39 LA TECH 32 MARSHALL OHIO The Bobcats clearly have the edges but not by enough to make it a stronger play. PP is forecasting OU with a yd edge and a 4 pt win while getting their first series win in 7 games. 1H OHIO 27 MARSHALL 23 IDAHO TEXAS A&M We feel A&M can name their score but with a visit from Oklahoma St on deck we ll pass. NO PLAY: TEXAS A&M 50 IDAHO 13 BUFFALO BALL ST We ll back the visitor plus the points because the forecast can t be any closer to even. PP is calling for Ball St to have a yd edge and a 1 pt win. L/2 gms in the series have been upsets. 3H BALL ST 24 BUFFALO 23 ARIZONA ST ILLINOIS How can you not like a B10 HD that is 2-0 and only has a MAC team on deck. ASU meanwhile is off a National televised OT game with USC on deck. PP calls for Illinois to have a yd edge. 4H ILLINOIS 31 (if dog) ARIZONA ST 28 KENT ST KANSAS ST Bill Snyder doesn t mind scoring points & after the team struggled scoring in the opener we ll see it here. PP has the Wildcats with a yd edge & KSU is on their 2nd tough road gm in 3 weeks. 4H KANSAS ST 31 KENT ST 14 5 SYRACUSE USC There s only one way to go here and PP agrees. While you can say the Cuse looked past Rhode Island LW (FD s 20-20) on this cross country trip the forecast is for USC to finish with a yd edge. 4H USC 32 SYRACUSE 15 OKLAHOMA FLORIDA ST Two very talented teams but the Sooners still have the edge. PP has them finishing with a yd edge. OU also has the more experienced QB and HC in what should be a tight ballgame. 1H OKLAHOMA 30 FLORIDA ST 25 UTEP NEW MEXICO ST With the UTEP QB injury there is no line out currently so we ll pass on this one. NO PLAY: NEW MEXICO ST 25 UTEP 25 OHIO ST MIAMI, FL There s no line out at press time but you can see PP leans with Miami and a yard edge. We actually lean towards Ohio St who clearly looked past Toledo LW to prep for this one. NO PLAY: MIAMI, FL 27 OHIO ST 20 UTAH BYU While not conference rivals anymore the feud still exists. We completely agree with PP but the dominating forecast is an eye opener with BYU finishing with a yard edge. 4H BYU 24 UTAH 15 OKLAHOMA ST TULSA Offense, offense, offense. PP is calling for 1,037 total yards and for Tulsa to only get outgained by 19. The Hurricane are a 2 TD HD and are worth making it a star rated play. 3H TULSA 30 (+) OKLAHOMA ST 39 HAWAII UNLV Obvious big edges to the Warriors but with the line at UH -19, we ll pass on this one. NO PLAY: HAWAII 41 UNLV 20 STANFORD ARIZONA This is a mixed forecast with the Cardinal projected to win the game by 12 points. But take a look at the yards and PP earns it s cover price showing you the Wildcats have a yard edge. NO PLAY: STANFORD 32 ARIZONA 20 ULM TCU TCU is forecasted with a yard egde but with the line at the forecast we ll pass. NO PLAY: TCU 39 ULM 11 ARKANSAS ST VIRGINIA TECH Here we have another strong team forecasted to dominate a Sun Belt opponent but it s right at the line. NO PLAY: VIRGINIA TECH 36 ARKANSAS ST 9 UCF FIU FIU is off their first ever bowl hosting UCF who s played in the postseason 4 of the L6Y. PP is calling for the Knights to finish with a yd edge and to take care of the in-state foe. 1H UCF 30 FIU 24 NORTH TEXAS ALABAMA Bama with a yard edge and a 52-0 win. Nothing more needs to be written. 2H ALABAMA 52 NORTH TEXAS 0 TROY ARKANSAS We lean with Troy but PP disagrees and has the Razorbacks finishing with a yd edge. NO PLAY: ARKANSAS 45 TR0Y 17 Each week STREAKERS looks at current runs on both the ATS & Totals. A streak starts after 3 Wins/Losses/Overs/Unders so this section will start if any teams qualify during the fourth week of the season. Remember you can win many times during a streak and lose only once. STREAKERS WILL BEGIN AFTER 3 WEEKS OF PLAY
6 PRO FOOTBALL SEPTEMBER 18-19th, 2011 Just a quick note for our Power Plays Subscribers. Obviously this newsletter is based upon statistical numbers and rankings that are used to develop the projections you see here. As with all types statistical information the more numbers that one inputs ordinarily the stronger the accuracy of the results. Therefore, one would expect the projections to be more reliable after a number of weeks worth of stats are input. The numbers here are based upon how they finished last season with adjustments made due to personnel changes. Preseason statistics are not included in any of the projections as we do not feel they would accurately adjust the numbers. SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18th CHICAGO #1 NEW ORLEANS #20 The Saints are off a loss they have nothing to be ashamed of as they matched the Packers blow for blow. Payton had the team in on Monday going over the base gameplan for CHI and he s been torn apart by the media over how the GB game ended. CHI s defense shut down the Falcons LW and got to Ryan. The Falcons got to Cutler just as much (5 sks 11 QBH) and NO has a solid interior DL. PP gives NO a 191 yd edge here but it isn t taking into account the fact that WR s Moore & Colston are expected to miss here so we ll limit the grade. 3H SAINTS 32 BEARS 21 KANSAS CITY #22 DETROIT #16 KC was caught in a snowball effect LW in their biggest opening day loss in team history. Haley will be taking heat all week from the media over his uber-conservative approach in preseason. Now they travel vs a defense much farther along than BUF. DET clearly outplayed TB LW but special teams and a tipped pass let them hang around in the game. DET is on a ATS run but PP only gives them a 93 yd edge here. This is also the biggest favorite role for DET since the last game of 2000 so we ll temper the side but the total is interesting here. 2H LIONS 33 CHIEFS 18 3H LIONS/CHIEFS: OVER JACKSONVILLE #6 NY JETS #8 The Jets scored 17 pts in the 4Q to grab the win away form the Cowboys LW. They now take on a 1 dimensional Jaguars team that doesn t have a vertical threat. JAX let TEN creep into the game in the 4Q LW and McCown was strictly a game manager vs a TEN team adjusting to a new defensive playstyle. PP gives the Jets a 102 yd edge here and LW s comeback win took away some line value limiting the strength of the play. 3H JETS 30 JAGUARS 16 OAKLAND #19 BUFFALO #17 BUF is in a great spot off a big win vs KC on the road and they get OAK off a road MNF game vs DEN to open the year. By jumping out to an early lead, BUF took away KC s run game and were able to lock down KC s best receiving threat in Bowe (17 yds 8.5). This is a No Play without seeing how OAK did vs DEN on MNF though even with the Bills situational edges here. NO PLAY: BILLS 31 RAIDERS 22 ARIZONA #7 WASHINGTON #14 ARZ s secondary was exposed by Newton to the tune of 422 yds at home and now they have to travel to WAS. ARZ doesn t have a formidable pass rush & WAS looked much crisper LW vs the Giants than they did all of PP gives the home team a 102 yd edge but WAS isn t a great HF (neither is Shanahan) with a 4-12 ATS mark keeping this from being stronger. 3H REDSKINS 26 CARDINALS 18 BALTIMORE #10 TENNESSEE #3 BAL got a statement win vs PIT LW playing just as physical as they ever have. TEN wasn t as good as the final score vs JAX who were very conservative in McCown s 1st start and relied on the run. BAL has a better range of weapons than JAX, a more aggressive defense and will bring lots of pressure vs Hasselbeck. BAL may not have 1st RD DC CB Smith (ankle sprain) here. PP calls for a 13 pt win and with only STL on deck we ll take the road team. 4H RAVENS 27 TITANS 14 SEATTLE #2 PITTSBURGH #5 PIT lost by 4 TD for only the 2nd time since 1990 vs BAL thanks to a whopping 7 TO s. They now host a SEA that was the only team to lose to a team with a new coach from the start of PIT is bigger, more physical, more talented and healthier than the team coming to town. PP gives them a yd edge here and this would be a bigger play if not for the 2 TD+ line. 3H STEELERS 35 SEAHAWKS 15 GREEN BAY #28 CAROLINA #27 GB has huge talent edges on both sides of the ball and the large line confirms it. Newton set a record for most passing yds by a rookie QB in his debut with 422 yds. PP s stat # s are a bit inflated over it & CAR will likely be much more conservative vs GB s defense here. DD NDIV AF s with a DIV road game on deck are 3-9 ATS since 1992 and the potential for a backdoor cover is too great here. NO PLAY: PACKERS 37 PANTHERS 18 TAMPA BAY #4 MINNESOTA #21 Prior to the 4Q, TB had 2 FG, 5 3 & outs with an Int vs DET at home. MIN didn t fare much better vs LY s #1 defense running just 43 plays to 77 for the Chargers. McNabb was woefully ineffective with 28 net yds passing but had a 17-7 lead at the half due to a Harvin KR for a TD. MIN has clear edges on both sides of the trenches along with Peterson (98 yds 6.1 LW). PP has this right at the line so No Play. NO PLAY: VIKINGS 24 BUCCANEERS 21 CLEVELAND #23 INDIANAPOLIS #32 CLE gave the game away to CIN in the 4Q thanks to mental errors after giving up 13 pts early in the game. IND knew it would be painful w/o Manning but they were blown out in every phase of the game they & got their only score after HOU fumbled on their 27 in the 4Q. IND has better talent overall but until we get a feel on how each team practices this week this is a No Play. NO PLAY: COLTS 24 BROWNS 22 DALLAS #12 SAN FRANCISCO #11 DAL blew a 14 pt lead with 12 min left in the 4Q LW vs the Jets & the media quickly moved to slam Romo over it. He did log 342 yds vs a very formidable 3-4 defense much further along than SF s. The 49ers got Harbaugh his 1st win in the NFL vs a SEA team without 2 key FA pickups (OG Gallery, WR Rice) with lots of changeover from the playoff win over NO. PP has this right around the line with no significant yard edge so this is a No Play. NO PLAY: COWBOYS 30 49ers 26 HOUSTON #31 MIAMI #30 The media will be crowning HOU after they beat the Colts at home to open the year. MIA is off LW s MNF game vs NE and its unknown how the new RB/revamped OL fared. MIA s defense is underrated (#6 LY) and don t overreact to LY s #30 defense slamming IND without Manning LW. We need to see how MIA looks on MNF so this is a No Play. NO PLAY: TEXANS 27 DOLPHINS 22 SAN DIEGO #18 NEW ENGLAND #24 SD dominated MIN statistically with a yd edge (31 FD s!!) but had to scramble to come back for the win in the 4Q thanks to a 103 yd KR to open the game. They lost K Kaeding (ACL), DE Castillo (brkn leg) for the year and RB Tolbert (knee) is questionable here. NE is off LW s MNF game vs MIA and its not known how the revamped DL looked vs an improved OL. This is a No Play as there isn t enough info yet. NO PLAY: PATRIOTS 38 CHARGERS 25 CINCINNATI #26 DENVER #29 DEN is off LW s MNF game vs OAK & those results are not factored in here. CIN got past CLE thanks to 7 1Q penalties to set up 13 pts. Dalton (wrist) missed the 2H but is expected back here. CIN s other 14 pts came on mental errors in the 4Q to get the win. We need to see how DEN operates with Fox at the helm before making a call so this is a No Play. NO PLAY: BRONCOS 26 BENGALS 22 PHILADELPHIA #13 ATLANTA #9 Vick didn t take the sidelines in LY s win as a 2 pt HF due to bruised ribs. A 56 yd Fbl return for a TD swung momentum to PHI LW which was compounded by inj s to STL. ATL wasn t prepared for CHI s physical defense LW & gave up 3 TO s for 14 pts as Ryan was sacked 5 times. PP has this right around the side & total here so this is a No Play.Get this play on the Northcoast Debit Card System for only 9 after 11:00 am ET on Sunday. Sunday Night Private Play Hotline Marquee Plays have gone % L12Y!!! NO PLAY: EAGLES 28 FALCONS 24 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 19th ST LOUIS #15 NY GIANTS #25 STL lost 4 offensive starters LW vs PHI including RB Jackson (quad) & Bradford (thumb) along with CB Bartell. The Giants only had 3 drives over 20 yds LW (1-10 on 3rd Dns), Manning had another Int returned for a TD along with another special teams error. This is a No Play with Bradford s status (AJ Feeley last started in 2007) up in the air. We are offering a MONEY BACK PLUS Guarantee on MNM through the Northcoast Debit Card System - take advantage on Monday night after 3:00 pm ET! Pay just 30 for the MNM Play and if it fails to cover - you ll get 40 back on your Northcoast Debit Card the very next day! NO PLAY: GIANTS 29 RAMS 21 6 STREAKERS 2011 NFL POWER RATINGS STREAKERS WILL BEGIN AFTER 3 WEEKS OF PLAY TEAM... RTG TEAM... RTG TEAM... RTG 1 New England Houston Jacksonville Green Bay Chicago Tampa Bay Denver New Orleans Dallas Cincinnati Philadelphia Detroit Washington NY Jets Kansas City Oakland San Diego Minnesota Carolina Baltimore Buffalo Indianapolis Cleveland Pittsburgh Miami Tennessee NY Giants San Francisco Seattle Atlanta St Louis Arizona These are current 2011 Power Rating grades for each team based on talent.
7 PASS EFFICIENCY DEFENSE TEAM YDS ATT COM % TD INT GRADE OPP 1 Virginia Tech Alabama East Carolina Texas Virginia Kentucky Nebraska Ohio St Tulsa Vanderbilt UCLA Oklahoma Colorado Texas A&M Louisiana Marshall Bowling Green Washington LSU USC Boise St Kansas St Penn St Miami, Oh Louisville Utah Oregon Ohio BYU UTEP Illinois UCF Tulane Kent St Mississippi Fresno St New Mexico St Michigan St SMU Louisiana Tech Florida South Carolina Notre Dame California Georgia Tennessee Southern Miss USF Connecticut Florida St Colorado St W Michigan Arkansas San Jose St Rice Texas Tech Arizona St Syracuse NC State Stanford Michigan Northwestern Clemson Army Maryland Buffalo Cent Michigan Duke Iowa St ULM Idaho Wisconsin Baylor Ball St Georgia Tech Navy Temple Arkansas St Purdue Wake Forest Toledo FIU Rutgers Indiana Mississippi St West Virginia Auburn North Carolina North Texas Florida Atlantic Hawaii Houston Oklahoma St Washington St Pittsburgh WKU Missouri Utah St Miami, Fl Wyoming Iowa Minnesota Arizona Middle Tennessee E Michigan UAB Akron Air Force Troy New Mexico Nevada Boston College Oregon St N Illinois San Diego St Cincinnati Kansas TCU Memphis UNLV COLLEGE TEAM STATISTICAL AVERAGES OFF OFF - RUSHING - - PASSING - DEF DEF - OPPONENTS RUSH - SKS SKS PTS FD ATT YDS AVG FUM COM ATT PCT YDS INT TD PTS FD ATT YDS AVG FUM VS BY Air Force Akron Alabama Arizona Arizona St Arkansas Arkansas St Army Auburn Ball St Baylor Boise St Boston College Bowling Green Buffalo BYU California C Michigan Cincinnati Clemson Colorado Colorado St Connecticut Duke E Michigan East Carolina Florida Florida Atlantic FIU Florida St Fresno St Georgia Georgia Tech Hawaii Houston Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Iowa St Kansas Kansas St Kent St Kentucky Louisiana Tech Louisiana Louisville LSU Marshall Maryland Memphis Miami, Fl Miami, Oh Michigan Michigan St Middle Tennessee Minnesota Mississippi Mississippi St Missouri N Illinois Navy NC State Nebraska Nevada New Mexico New Mexico St North Carolina North Texas Northwestern Notre Dame Ohio Ohio St Oklahoma Oklahoma St Oregon Oregon St Penn St Pittsburgh Purdue Rice Rutgers Southern Miss San Diego St San Jose St SMU South Carolina Stanford Syracuse TCU Temple Tennessee Texas Texas A&M Texas Tech Toledo Troy Tulane Tulsa UAB UCF UCLA ULM UNLV USC USF Utah Utah St UTEP Vanderbilt Virginia Virginia Tech W Michigan Wake Forest Washington Washington St West Virginia WKU Wisconsin Wyoming
8 SATURDAY'S SEPTEMBER 5 GOM is FREE TO 2011 SUBSCRIBERS! Why stop there???? 20 WINNING SEPT 5 SATURDAYS 69% OVER 29 YEARS! EVERY Si d e Lat e Ph o n e Pl ay Rel e a s e d o n Sat & Su n!! BONUS: Th u r s/fri/mon MARQUEES!! 99 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY +Th/F/M Marquees! 149 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY +Th/F/M Marquees! WITH COLLEGE TOTALS Subscriber Price Subscriber Price With Totals! Non-2011 subscribers purchasing the above packages please add 75 to the advertised rate. Th e 5H is Ou r COLL SEPT GAME OF THE MONTH!!! The 5H play is the September game of the month! gom % since 2007!!!!!! NORTHCOAST SPORTS TOP 40 POWER POLL The following Power Ratings are a combination of 6 different of Phil Steele s Power Ratings, including his Plus & Minus, Power Plays and Computer Power Ratings. 1 Alabama 14 Texas 27 Ohio St 2 Oklahoma 15 Wisconsin 28 Illinois 3 Texas A&M 16 Michigan St 29 USF 4 Boise St 17 Georgia 30 Miami, Fl 5 Arkansas 18 Nebraska 31 Georgia Tech 6 Florida St 19 South Carolina 32 North Carolina 7 Oregon 20 Miss St 33 UCLA 8 LSU 21 USC 34 Michigan 35 Tennessee 9 Stanford 22 TCU 36 UCF 10 Oklahoma St 23 Penn St 37 Missouri 11 Virginia Tech 24 BYU 38 Clemson 12 Notre Dame 25 Houston 39 Arizona 13 Florida 26 Arizona St 40 Northwestern Name Address City State Zip Credit Card Signature Exp. Date NORTHCOAST SPORTS SERVICE PO Box Cleveland, OH OR and go to the NCstore 2011 SUBS PAY JUST SUBS PAY JUST 329 BIG DOG PLAY OF THE WEEK On The Private Play Hotline 156 outright upsets by 7+ Pt DOGS L/18Y WE PICK A TD+ DOGS WE THINK WILL WIN OUTRIGHT EVERY WEEK ON THE PRIVATE PLAY HOTLINE (MORE THAN 1 PLAY POSSIBLE)! SUBSCRIBE TO POWER PLAYS I enclose 99 for my '11 DOWNLOAD subscription to POWER PLAYS. (Every issue thru the Super Bowl!). This includes 50 on a Northcoast Debit Card, the Sept 5 LPS (9/17) and FREE Schedules. I enclose 99 for my '11 DOWNLOAD subscription to POWER SWEEP (Every issue thru the Super Bowl!). This includes 50 on a Northcoast Debit Card, the Sept 5 Late Phone Selection (9/17) and FREE Schedules POWER PLAYS subs pay only 59 (download only) with no bonuses. ***All prices in Vol. 29 Issue 3 Expire & Cannot be used in conjunction with any other offer*** Payment Method: MasterCard Visa American Express Discover Check/Money Order VISA/MC has 16 or 13 digits DISC has 16 digits / AMEX has 15 digits RECEIVE ALL THE LATE PHONES! 69 is download only. Mail Renewal is Subs Add All of Saturday's H Side Plays (in addition to 5H) SEPTEMBER If you are not a Power Sweep sub & you want our 5H, you can still purchase this play. Sign up for the big play for 75 EXECUTIVE CLUB WEEKEND 499 Value Sign up for this weekend's Executive Club. 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RECORDS VS. OPPONENTS RECORDS VS. OPPONENTS Team First W L T Air Force 1975 2 0 0 Akron 2017 1 0 0 Alabama 2001 0 1 0 Arizona 1948 1 4 1 Arkansas 1973 0 1 0 Army 1964 2 1 0 Ball State 1998 1 0 0 Baylor
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