Trends in Travel Behavior and Transit Ridership

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1 Trends in Travel Behavior and Transit Ridership CUTR Webinar Thursday, March 29, 2018 Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Outline What is going on with travel Trends and underlying causes of transit ridership decline Implications going forward 1

2 U.S. Context and Travel Trends As of March 27, / / /2016 YTD Months Source U.S. Population 0.8% 0.5% 0.7% - Census Total Employment 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 12 BLS Real GDP 2.9% 1.5% 2.3% 12 BEA (1 st est.) Gas Price -29.3% -14.8% 15.1% 12 EIA Registered Cars and Light Trucks 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 12 proj. Hedges Co. Light Vehicle Sales 5.8% 0.1% -1.8% 12 BEA Count of Zero-Vehicle Households -1.0% -1.9% Census VMT 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 12 FHWA Public Transit Ridership -1.0% to -2.2% -2.3% to -1.6% -3.1, -2.6% 9, 12 APTA and NTD Amtrak Ridership (FY) -0.3% 1.9% 1.9% 12 Amtrak Airline Passengers 5.3% 3.9% 3.5% 11 USDOT, BTS National VMT and VMT per Capita Trend, Moving 12 Month Total, Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billion Miles) 3,500 8 year reprieve 3,000 2,500 2,000 Annual Vehicle-Distance Traveled (Billions) 1,500 VMT per Capita 1, Jan-92 Nov-92 Sep-93 Jul-94 May-95 Mar-96 Jan-97 Nov-97 Sep-98 Jul-99 May-00 Mar-01 Jan-02 Nov-02 Sep-03 Jul-04 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Mar-16 Jan-17 Nov-17 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 VMT per Capita, Annual 2

U.S. Transit Ridership and Ridership per Capita 25 200 180 Annual Ridership, Billions 20 15 10 5 Rides, Billion Per Capita Rides 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Annual Trips per Capita 0 0 1917 1921 1925

3 U.S. Transit Ridership and Ridership per Capita Annual Ridership, Billions Rides, Billion Per Capita Rides Annual Trips per Capita U.S. Transit Ridership, Fixed Route, 12 Month Rolling Average US Ridership, Hundreds of Millions US Florida JAN08 MAY08 SEP08 JAN09 MAY09 SEP09 JAN10 MAY10 SEP10 JAN11 MAY11 SEP11 JAN12 MAY12 SEP12 JAN13 MAY13 SEP13 JAN14 MAY14 SEP14 JAN15 MAY15 SEP15 JAN16 MAY16 SEP16 JAN17 MAY17 SEP17 Florida Ridership, Millions 3

Top 40 UZAs by 2016 Transit Ridership, 2014 2016 Change (Millions) Top 40 urban areas

ridership decline from 2014 2016 Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database Top 10 Agencies in

Transportation Authority +0.491, +4.0% Top 10 agencies make up 87.

272, 11.8% Hillsborough Area Rapid Transit 1.081, 7.

4 Top 40 UZAs by 2016 Transit Ridership, Change (Millions) Top 40 urban areas make up 83.9% of U.S. ridership decline from Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database Top 10 Agencies in Florida by 2016 Transit Ridership, Change (Millions) Jacksonville Transportation Authority , +4.0% Top 10 agencies make up 87.7% of Florida ridership from City of Tallahassee 0.650, 15.0% Gainesville RTS 1.272, 11.8% Hillsborough Area Rapid Transit 1.081, 7.2% Pinellas Suncoast Transportation Authority 1.826, 12.9% South Florida RTA % Central FL RTA 3.011, 10.4% PalmTran 2.479, 20.8% Broward County Transit 6.302, 16.6% Miami Dade Transit , 13.4% Source: NTD Monthly Raw Database 4

5 Declining Carpooling and Growing Work at Home Dominate Trends 12% Mode Share, Usual Commute 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 9.0% 5.1% 5.0% 2.7% 1.2% Car, truck, or van carpooled Public transportation Walked Bicycle Other means Worked at home 0% % Transit Ridership and Service Summary National 10 year trend year trend year trend Trending Q Q National Service miles All bus 15.2% 11.3% 5.1% 3.4% Light rail (LR & SR) 20.7% 1.4% 0.8% 3.6% Commuter rail 5.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.3% Heavy rail 9.8% 3.8% 0.4% 1.2% Demand Response (DR DT) 10.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% Total 3.4% 7.1% 2.8% 1.4% All bus 3.5% 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% Light rail 54.9% 17.4% 6.8% 5.2% Commuter rail 16.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% Heavy rail 7.8% 3.0% 1.8% 0.7% Demand Response 15.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.8% Total 4.7% 3.2% 0.9% 0.7% 5

Transit Ridership and Service Summary Florida 10 year trend 2017 2007 3 year trend 2017 2014 1 year trend 2017 2016 Trending Q4 2017 Q4 2016 Florida Ridership Service miles All bus 18.4% 20.5% 7.6% 5.

9% Light rail 20.2% 2.4% 1.7% 16.6% Commuter rail 270.2% 1.9% 1.1% 7.7% Heavy rail 9.0% 7.5% 8.9% 18.8% Demand Response 9.1% 17.1% 5.8% 5.7% Total 0.8% 5.7% 1.0% 5.7% Where are We Headed?

6 Transit Ridership and Service Summary Florida 10 year trend year trend year trend Trending Q Q Florida Ridership Service miles All bus 18.4% 20.5% 7.6% 5.6% Light rail 50.0% 2.5% 4.1% 2.7% Commuter rail 22.4% 2.4% 2.0% 6.5% Heavy rail 15.3% 9.4% 6.7% 3.8% Demand Response 0.2% 6.6% 4.3% 6.4% Total 15.1% 18.6% 7.0% 4.9% All bus 4.6% 1.2% 0.8% 1.9% Light rail 20.2% 2.4% 1.7% 16.6% Commuter rail 270.2% 1.9% 1.1% 7.7% Heavy rail 9.0% 7.5% 8.9% 18.8% Demand Response 9.1% 17.1% 5.8% 5.7% Total 0.8% 5.7% 1.0% 5.7% Where are We Headed? Transit ridership near 60 year high Millennials are different We passed peak VMT We are urbanizing and CBD s are thriving Developers embrace transit Strong referendum success TNC s address firstmile/last mile issue Transit ridership loss accelerates in 3 rd year of decline Growth and migration resume historic patterns VMT and VMT/Capita continue growth Millennials buy cars and move to suburbs System conditions, reliability, health care costs, etc. plague transit operators How much will that subway cost? When will Hawaii's rail system open? How is that new streetcar doing? TNC s can cannibalize transit ridership Why do we need transit with CAV? 2018? 6

Competition Supply How much of ridership s

7 Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 1. Demographics and Land Use Demand 2. Transit Service Quality 3. Competition Supply How much of ridership s change is explained by these factors? Framework used in Metro analysis Considers agency control 7

8 Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 1. Demographics and Land Use Age Geographic Distribution across Metros Migration and Growth Trends, International Migration Trends Geographic Distribution within Metros (within proximity of service?/gentrification) Income Licensure Levels Auto Ownership Poverty Levels (SNAP enrollment) Unemployment Reduced College Student Ridership (APTA report) Core Values Aging Population has a Negative Impact on Ridership Tirps per person per day Share of trips taken via transit % 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Age group % 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% Age group Persons (Millions)

9 Migration and Growth are Higher in Low Transit Use Areas Top 10 Largest-Gaining Counties (Numeric Change): July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016 County Maricopa County, Arizona Population Numeric Change Percent Change Transit Commute Share ,242,997 81, % Largest-Declining Counties or County Equivalents (Numeric Change): July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016 County Cook County, Illinois Population Numeric Change Percent Change Transit Commute Share ,203,499-21, % Harris County, Texas 4,589,928 56, % Wayne County, Michigan 1,749,366-7, % Clark County, Nevada 2,155,664 46, % Baltimore city, Maryland 614,664-6, % King County, Washington 2,149,970 35, % Cuyahoga County, Ohio 1,249,352-5, % Tarrant County, Texas 2,016,872 35, % Suffolk County, New York 1,492,583-5, % Riverside County, California 2,387,741 34, % Milwaukee County, Wisconsin 951,448-4, % Bexar County, Texas 1,928,680 33, % Allegheny County, Pennsylvania 1,225,365-3, % Orange County, Florida 1,314,367 29, % San Juan County, New Mexico 115,079-3, % Dallas County, Texas 2,574,984 29, % St. Louis City, Missouri 311,404-3, % Hillsborough County, Jefferson County, 1,376,238 29, % 114,006-3, % Florida New York Average 3.4% Average 7.8% Improving Vehicle Availability Coincides with Declining Transit Ridership Percent Change in Transit Ridership and Zero Vehicle Households from % 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 1.3 million fewer persons lived in zero vehicle households in 2016 than in Ridership Percent Change from 2005 Percent Change Zero Vehicle Households from

Impact of Greater Auto Availability Each Fewer Resident in a Zero-Vehicle Household is Estimated to Reduce Annual Transit Trips by 191 300 Annual Transit Trips Per Person 250 200 150 100 50 0 229 191

10 Impact of Greater Auto Availability Each Fewer Resident in a Zero-Vehicle Household is Estimated to Reduce Annual Transit Trips by Annual Transit Trips Per Person Vehicles in Household Total Sources: 2009 NHTS, U.S. Census, NTD Change in Population (5 and up), Estimated Transit Trip Change Total Population (5 and up), million million million million -251 million -55 million +67 million -239 million million million million million Note: Fixed-route transit ridership was 10,331 million in 2014 and 9,881 million in 2016, declining 449 million trips. Transit trip rates based on 2009 National Household Travel Survey and Census data suggest 240 million, or 53%, of the decline is explained by changes in vehicle availability. Zero Vehicle Household Trend VEHICLES AVAILABLE U.S No vehicles 8.70% 8.80% 8.90% 9.10% 9.30% 9.20% 9.10% 9.10% 8.90% 8.70% available Nearly half of all transit trips are made by residents of zerovehicle households 44.6% in 2001 NHTS, 48.1% in 2009 NHTS, 43.0% in 2017 NHTS? income We do not know what share of zero vehicle households are zero vehicle by choice, law, physical/medical condition, or income?? choice legal 8.7% The share of zero vehicle households ranges from 4% in Utah to 12.6% in Massachusetts then 29% in New York and 37.3% in DC? medical 10

11 Transit Use Correlates with Need Based Program Participation Percent Change U.S. Transit Ridership and SNAP Enrollment 25% Ridership Percent Change from % 15% 10% 5% Ridership Percent Change from 2002 SNAP Users Percent Change from % 120% 90% 60% 30% SNAP Users Percent Change from % % Other Hypothesized Demographic Factors Resumption of suburban growth trend International immigrants may have a different demographic profile than in the past International immigrants may be arriving at, or moving to, less transit intensive areas Undocumented immigrant drivers license authorization may be spurring auto ownership 11

12 Are Core Values that Impact Travel Changing? Do we value autonomy, privacy, flexibility, convenience, etc. more than in the past? Safety Comfort Convenience Money Cost Travel Behavior Time Cost Reliability Flexibility Image Environmental, Social Impact Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 2. Transit Service Quality Fares (levels, convenience, ease of use) Level of Service (coverage, frequency, hours of operation) Speed (access, wait, in vehicle, transfer, egress)(tolerance for waiting in our immediate gratification culture) Reliability Safety/Security Accident Safety, In Vehicle/Facility Crime Image Cleanliness Interpersonal Compatibility Increased homeless/mentally ill ridership (APTA report) Status/Persona Environmental Impacts Awareness/Marketing (trip planning, real time information, digital fare payment, etc.) Amenities (Wi Fi, shelter, convenience retail, etc.) 12

13 Average Fare Revenue per Passenger Trip and Passenger Mile (2017 Dollars) $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 Average Fare Revenue $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $0.20 per Passenger Trip per Passenger Mile $0.00 Pre 2014 data from APTA Fact Book, Post 2014 data from NTD Service Supply 12-Month Rolling Average of U.S. Transit Ridership and Service, Fixed Route Hundreds of Millions (Trips and VRM) Ridership Service DEC02 APR03 AUG03 DEC03 APR04 AUG04 DEC04 APR05 AUG05 DEC05 APR06 AUG06 DEC06 APR07 AUG07 DEC07 APR08 AUG08 DEC08 APR09 AUG09 DEC09 APR10 AUG10 DEC10 APR11 AUG11 DEC11 APR12 AUG12 DEC12 APR13 AUG13 DEC13 APR14 AUG14 DEC14 APR15 AUG15 DEC15 APR16 AUG16 DEC16 APR17 AUG17 13

14 Service Supply Hundreds of Millions (Trips and VRM) Month Rolling Average of U.S. Transit Ridership and Service, Metro Bus Ridership Service DEC02 MAY03 OCT03 MAR04 AUG04 JAN05 JUN05 NOV05 APR06 SEP06 FEB07 JUL07 DEC07 MAY08 OCT08 MAR09 AUG09 JAN10 JUN10 NOV10 APR11 SEP11 FEB12 JUL12 DEC12 MAY13 OCT13 MAR14 AUG14 JAN15 JUN15 NOV15 APR16 SEP16 FEB17 JUL17 Service Supply Month Rolling Average of U.S. Transit Ridership and Service, Light Rail Millions (Trips and VRM) Ridership Service DEC02 MAY03 OCT03 MAR04 AUG04 JAN05 JUN05 NOV05 APR06 SEP06 FEB07 JUL07 DEC07 MAY08 OCT08 MAR09 AUG09 JAN10 JUN10 NOV10 APR11 SEP11 FEB12 JUL12 DEC12 MAY13 OCT13 MAR14 AUG14 JAN15 JUN15 NOV15 APR16 SEP16 FEB17 JUL17 14

15 Service Supply 12-Month Rolling Average of U.S. Transit Ridership and Service, Heavy Rail Hundreds of Millions (Trips and VRM) Ridership Service DEC02 MAY03 OCT03 MAR04 AUG04 JAN05 JUN05 NOV05 APR06 SEP06 FEB07 JUL07 DEC07 MAY08 OCT08 MAR09 AUG09 JAN10 JUN10 NOV10 APR11 SEP11 FEB12 JUL12 DEC12 MAY13 OCT13 MAR14 AUG14 JAN15 JUN15 NOV15 APR16 SEP16 FEB17 JUL17 Service Supply 12-Month Rolling Average of U.S. Transit Ridership and Service, Commuter Rail Millions (Trips and VRM) Ridership Service DEC02 MAY03 OCT03 MAR04 AUG04 JAN05 JUN05 NOV05 APR06 SEP06 FEB07 JUL07 DEC07 MAY08 OCT08 MAR09 AUG09 JAN10 JUN10 NOV10 APR11 SEP11 FEB12 JUL12 DEC12 MAY13 OCT13 MAR14 AUG14 JAN15 JUN15 NOV15 APR16 SEP16 FEB17 JUL17 15

16 Framework for Understanding Changes in Transit Ridership 3. Competition Communication Substitution for Travel Trip making levels (telecommuting, e commerce, distant learning, online banking etc.) TNC availability/los/price Bike/Bikeshare Auto Cost Fuel Cost Purchase/Lease/Finance Cost Parking Cost/Other Auto Costs Roadway Congestion/Speed Gas Prices and Transit Ridership, ,000 $4.00 Unlinked Passenger Trips (Millions) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 U.S. Average Gas Price U.S. Ridership $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 Average U.S. Gas Price 2,000 $ $0.00 *Inflation adjustment performed using Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator using CPI, UPT for 2015 and 2016 from Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Gas prices from EIA 16

17 Key Issues Travel Behavior Ridership trends are context specific and vary significantly across geography. The reasons for soft ridership differ across contexts with telecommuting, TNC s, service reliability, auto ownership trends, fares, and other factors having different impacts in different markets. Transit has historically had the lowest mode loyalty (mode of last resort). Declining fare revenues and/or dampened public willingness to increase subsidies resulting from soft ridership could contribute to continuing declines in ridership. Influences on Transit Choice (Hypothesized) Geographic and Economic Distribution of Population Car Affordability Gas Price Gentrification/Housing Affordability Fares E commerce, Telework TNC Availability Safety, Reliability, Quality Speed Service availability Economic Status 17

18 Wild Guess as to Attribution of Causes of Ridership Decline Aging, 0.5 Migration trends/gentrification, 2.23 Transportation network companies (Uber, Lyft), 6 Telecommuting/ecommerce, etc., 9 Bikeshare, carshare, 1 System safety/reliability, 8 Increased auto availability, 53 Personal safety/cleanliness, 8 Gas prices, 7 Enhanced traveler expectations, 1 Service supply, 0 Fares, 1 Weather, 2 Parking cost/availability, 0 Commuter benefits program changes, 0 Leap year, 0.27 Key Issues Travel Behavior Strong employment growth and growing real income could continue to undermine transit dependency and jeopardize ridership. Urban civility may influence future ridership trends. Demographic trends in proximity to transit services (TOD) will influence future ridership. Increasing roadway congestion could favor premium transit services but undermine mixed traffic transit operations. System condition and quality of industry execution may influence ridership. 18

19 Key Issues Strategic Is there an inflection point where service becomes more attractive to choice travelers? What transit quality of service is required to make it attractive? What transit service concepts are sustainable in low to moderate density dispersed activity environments? Ridership Productivity Accessibility Frequency Speed? Convenience, etc. What do These Curves Really Look Like? Probability of Taking Transit Captive Choice Mode Share on Transit Probability of Taking Transit 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Minutes between Vehicles Probability of a Given Trip Being on Transit for Choice Traveler Transit expansion fails to attract many new travelers? Better Service attracts travelers but capacity overwhelms market size and resources unless densely developed and well funded Minutes between Vehicles 19

20 Research on Ridership Trends APTA. Understanding Recent Ridership Changes: Trends and Applications. Policy Development and Research. Nov Agency Initiatives: Falling Transit Ridership: California and Southern California. UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies. Dec FDOT, Understanding Ridership Trends in Transit in progress TCRP J 11/Task 28, Synthesis, Analysis of Recent Public Transit Ridership Trends, Georg Tech. Pending: TCRP A 43, Recent Decline in Public Transportation Ridership: Analysis, Causes, Responses, $400,000. TCRP H 56, Reinventing Transit Networks for a New Mobility Future, $300,000. How Should Stakeholders Respond? 20

21 [THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK] New Technologies are Leading to New Mode Concepts and Business Models Key goals 1. Mobility 2. Resource efficiency 3. Economic competitiveness May be best addressed with multiple 1. Technologies and services 2. Mixes of public and private providers 3. Different pricing and funding strategies 21

Today s modal silos will disappear We won t worry about the future of transit but instead worry about the future of mobility Upcoming seminar CUTR Webcast Series Presents: Understanding the Effects

22 Today s modal silos will disappear We won t worry about the future of transit but instead worry about the future of mobility Upcoming seminar CUTR Webcast Series Presents: Understanding the Effects of Demographic and Socio-Economic Factors on Public Transit Ridership Trends April 12 th 12pm-1pm Kurt Lehmann Graduate Research Assistant CUTR USF More Information: 22

23 You may find the new book of interest. I was the principal author of Chapter 5, Upgrading Transit for the Twenty First Century, of the recently released text, Three Revolutions Steering Automated, Shared, and Electric Vehicles to a Better Future. ee revolutions If you d like to purchase a copy of the book from Island Press, use the code 4SPERLING, which is good for a 20% discount. You can also order it from Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and your local independent bookseller. The Future of Public Transportation Joel Volinski Prologue Reflections on the Future of Public Transportation Dan Boyle The Future of Transit Ralph Buehler Can Public Transportation Compete with Automated and Connected Cars? Graham Currie Lies, Damned Lies, AVs, Shared Mobility, and Urban Transit Futures Jill Hough and Ali Rahim Taleqani Future of Rural Transit Steven E. Polzin Just Around the Corner: The Future of U.S. Public Transportation Kari Watkins Does the Future of Mobility Depend on Public Transportation? Carol Schweiger Improved Mobility through Blurred Lines Susan Shaheen and Adam Cohen Is It Time for a Public Transit Renaissance?: Navigating Travel Behavior, Technology, and Business Model Shifts in a Brave New World Eric Schreffler Better Integrating Travel Choices into Future Urban Mobility Systems: The Day the Highways Stood Still Jerome Lutin Not If, but When: Autonomous Driving and the Future of Transit Michael Manville, Brian D. Taylor, and Evelyn Blumenberg Transit in the 2000s: Where Does It Stand and Where Is It Headed? Jarrett Walker To Predict with Confidence, Plan for Freedom 23

24 Thank You! 24

Changes in Travel Behavior Affecting Transit

Changes in Travel Behavior Affecting Transit TRB Executive Committee Wednesday, January 10, 2018 Steven E. Polzin, PhD. Outline What is going on with travel What factors are influencing transit use Critical