Prof. Dr. José Fernández-Polanco. Universidad de Cantabria, España

Transcription

1 ELMERCADO DE PECES TROPICALES DE CULTIVO EN LA UE Prof. Dr. José Fernández-Polanco Universidad de Cantabria, España

2 Effects of Pangasius Imports on the EU Market for Imported Frozen Fish Fillets José Fernández-Polanco, Gunnar Knapp& Ignacio Llorente Aquaculture America 2011 (New Orleans, USA) The European Pangasius Market. Recent Evolution and Future Challenges José Fernández-Polanco Bremerhaven Aquaculture Forum 2013 (Bremerhaven, Germany) Mercados y Flujos Comerciales de Tilapia en la UE José Fernández-Polanco, Ignacio Llorente & María Odriozola 2º Foro Económico Mundial de Cultivo de Tilapia 2014 (Neiva, Colombia) Competition across Tropical Farmed Species in the EU José Fernández-Polanco, Ignacio Llorente & Audun Lem EAFE 2015 (Salerno, Italy) Aquaculture Economics & Management 2016 (Forthcoming)

3 Tropical freshwater fish has become one of the most important aquaculture commodities in the first decade of the century. Production has significantly grown in developing countries, resulting in a surplus targeting the more profitable markets in developed countries The real trade figures were difficult or even impossible to estimate as they were recorded aggregated into more aggregated commodities. New items have been introduced in the list of tariff codes since 2010 and several farmed species are now differentiated allowing the study at more disaggregated level.

4 Pangasius, Nile perch and tilapia rank for the three main tropical farmed fish in the EU market according to the volumes imported between 2010 and Imported volumes of pangasius fillets surpass by far the volumes of the other two species together. Tilapia Panga Perch , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,450.2 Variation EUROSTAT. External trade databases COMEXT

5 Pangasius also accounts for the cheapest prices in the market, even they have slightly increased in the last four years. Tilapia Panga Perch Variation EUROSTAT. External trade databases

6 Tilapia imports by continents (Quantities in MT) EUROSTAT. External trade databases

7 Tilapia imports by continents (Price EUR/Kg)

8 Main tilapia exporters to the EU(Quantities in tones). China Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Variation EUROSTAT. External trade databases NOTE: No completed monthly series from Vietnam

9 MaintilapiaexporterstotheEU(PricesinEuroperkilo). China Vietnam Indonesia Tailandia ,42 2,35 3,85 3, ,69 2,84 4,18 4, ,58 3,03 4,66 6, ,53 2,86 4,65 4,91 Variación 4,53% 21,69% 20,88% 59,38% EUROSTAT. External trade databases NOTE: No completed monthly series from Vietnam

10 Nile Perch prices are not related to other tropical farmed fish. No causal links have been found neither by aggregated species nor differentiated by country of origin. Perch price is then fixed according to different factors than competition with tilapia and pangasius exporters Country of origin makes a difference. No causal links were found when aggregating tilapia prices from different exporting countries. Differences in the importance of factors affecting tilapia prices in every exporting country may result in a differentiated price behavior of tilapia as a whole. However, price linkages have been found when considering the main Asian exporters separately.

11 Asian tilapia exporters operate in a delimitated market. Despite of differences in the price levels, probably due to differences in quality, all Asian tilapia prices are causally related. China the leader making price decisions according to Thai and Indonesian prices. Pangasius prices are exogenous for tilapia. The price of Vietnamese pangasius hasbeenfound tobegrangercauseofchiensetilapia prices.theopposite can also be confirmed.

12 VALUES FOR CONSUMERS Convenience. Easy to handle, carry, store and cook. Eatable: Skin and boneless, soft taste (fishless), easy to combine. Perfect for children and newcomers. Cheap. Price use to be lower than local species

13 VALUES FOR RETAILERS Supply. Pangasius is available all the year. Rotation. Frequent purchases, large sales volumes. Margin. Limited information allow high final prices and large margins.

14 Gross profit: ,0% 300,0% 250,0% 200,0% 150,0% 100,0% 50,0% 0,0% Seabream Pangasius Wholesale Asymmetry of information has allowed larger profit in pangasius, in special for retailers, than in any other farmed species. Retail Source: Fernandez Polanco / FAO, 2012.

15 Quantities Prices EU crisis 3, ,5 Viet Industry bankruptcy MT /kg US ban 2 US ban , Source: EUROSTAT, 2013

16 In a commodities market, fish fillets of different species and countries of origin can be directly competing like if they were the same product. The EU market of frozen fish fillets satisfies the technical conditions for being considered an integrated market. Between 2002 and 2011 the fast and massive irruption of pangasius fillets altered de equilibrium in the EU market across the main exporting countries. The prices of other white species like perch, hake and Alaska pollack resulted affected by pangasius prices. Boomerang effect. The strongest correlation between fillet prices was found with Alaska pollack imported from the US. Alaska fishermen had to reduce their prices in order to avoid loosing market share in the EU. Source: Fernandez-Polanco & Knapp, 2011.

17 Prices Quantities Source: Fernandez-Polanco & Knapp, 2011.

18 TOP EU IMPORTERS (2010) Poland 12,7% Rest 34,9% Netherlands 11,9% MT Germany 16,4% Spain 24,2% Poland Netherlands Spain Germany Imports Exports Source: EUROSTAT, 2013

19 Principales importadores de tilapia dentro de la UE (2013) EUROSTAT. External trade databases

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22 Relief at Aktihep s tomb. Medium Empire( BC)