2. Daddy Long Legs Aidan O Brien $1,294, Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170, Dullahan Dale Romans $855,000

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1 HorsePlayer Magazine Contributors Select the Ten Best Derby Contenders Top 30 Graded-Stakes Money Earners List 15 ON10 4. Dullahan Dale Romans $855,000 # HORSE TRAINER EARNINGS 1. Hansen Mike Maker $1,550, Daddy Long Legs Aidan O Brien $1,294, Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170, Creative Cause Mike Harrington $836, Wrote (IRE) Aidan O Brien $756, Gemologist Todd Pletcher $703, Sabercat Steve Asmussen $701, Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $698, Secret Circle Bob Baffert $670, Bodemeister Bob Baffert $660, I ll Have Another Doug O Neill $601, Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $545,558 Editor s Note: In Fifteen on Ten, we asked fourteen horseplayers, including HorsePlayer Magazine editor Frank R. Scatoni, to list their top-ten Derby contenders. The fifteenth? A consensus list of the top contestants, based on our point system. Points were assigned to each horse in descending order. In other words, each number-one pick was assigned ten points; each tenth pick was assigned one point. The totals are next to each horse s name in the final consensus list. But before we get started, here is the Top 30 Graded-Stakes Money Earners List as of April 15, Keep in mind that this list does not include the Lexington Stakes (G3), Jerome Handicap (G2), or the Derby Trial (G3), all three of which took place after this issue went to press. If more than twenty horses are entered for the Kentucky Derby (G1), the top-twenty horses with the most gradedstakes earnings get in, so let this list be your guide. 14. Liaison Bob Baffert $393, Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $380, Prospective Mark Casse $367, Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo $324, Done Talking Hamilton Smith $311, Drill Bob Baffert $300, Went the Day Well H. Graham Motion $282, Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $270, Mark Valeski Larry Jones $260, El Padrino Todd Pletcher $250, Reveron Agustin Bezara $220, Isn t He Clever (g) Henry Dominguez $191, Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $184, Castaway Bob Baffert $162, Currency Swap Teresa Pompey $150, My Adonis Kelly Breen $140, Brother Francis James Cassidy $135,000 (g): gelding 30 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

2 THE SPEEDY BODEMEISTER LOOKS TO GIVE MR. MAY BOB BAFFERT ANOTHER DERBY VICTORY. PHOTO CREDIT: BODEMEISTER PHOTO HORSEPHOTOS.COM 1. Bodemeister: We liked this horse a lot going into the Arkansas Derby (G1). We weren t dissuaded. 2. Creative Cause: Always shows up, and oddly, may end up being the value bet as the fourth choice in the wagering. Would you take 8/1? 10/1? Good shot at completing the exacta. 3. Dullahan: Visually impressive at Keeneland even to visually challenged guys like us. Another contender to complete the exacta. 4. I ll Have Another: Nice, lightly raced horse that seems to be improving. But his big win at Santa Anita off a layoff could take a bit too much out of him. Might be a wise guy horse, and that s usually the kiss of death. 5. Take Charge Indy: Don t think he needs the lead but has the speed for a good trip. Got away with slow fractions at Gulfstream, so it s hard to get overexcited about that race. He did beat Union Rags. One problem is it costs a lot on the board to have Calvin up. 6. Union Rags: Solid horse, but he has a tendency to wander and that could lead to bumper cars in this big field. 7. Hansen: Ran pretty darn good in the Blue Grass (G1), and if he had a blue tail, he might not have been caught. Looks like the Lone Ranger should be riding him. Could finish in the tri, especially if it s a merrygo-round race. 8. Went the Day Well: Just like last year for Team Valor, only the horse has changed and this one might be better. 9. Prospective: Won t give up on him yet as the payday horse in the tri or super. 10. Gemologist: Top connections. Undefeated. Never more than a length behind in his five races. Successful over the course. Great pun potential for the media if he wins the first jewel of the Triple Crown. We ll let the program pick him. Gibson Carothers is a writer and horseplayer who remembers when there were different lines for betting and cashing. Matt Carothers has been a horseplayer from birth and works at TVG as a racing analyst and as host of Blinkers Off and 58 Flat. GIBSON AND MATT CAROTHERS May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 31

3 FifteenOnTen CALVIN CARTER TAKE CHARGE INDY TOOK CHARGE IN THE FLORIDA DERBY (G1) UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF DERBY-DARLING JOCK CALVIN BOREL. 1. Bodemeister: My pick to win the Arkansas Derby (G1); has talent and breeding to win the Kentucky Derby. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, a tool I use to measure classic potential, is a whopping I ll Have Another: Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner s time of 1:47.88 is second fastest since Point Given s time of 1:47.77 in 2001, and puts him on the fast track to Kentucky Derby fame and glory. 6. Alpha: Wood (G1) runner-up, this Bernardini colt finished in-the-money in all of the big stakes races on the East Coast and has the breeding to be a classic champion. 7. Daddy Nose Best: Sunland Derby (G3) winner took route that was successful for 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. 8. Hansen: Talented frontrunner will need to rate from off-the-pace if he s going to wear the roses. PHOTO CREDIT: TAKE CHARGE INDY PHOTO HORSEPHOTOS.COM 3. Dullahan: Trainer Dale Romans hopes the Palm Beach (G3)/Blue Grass (G1) route that was successful for Paddy O Prado in 2010 will also be successful for this talented half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. 4. Creative Cause: A talented son of Giant s Causeway (IRE) and a seasoned competitor, he finished in-themoney in all of the big stakes races on the West Coast; has potential to wear the coveted garland of roses. 5. Take Charge Indy: Took charge in the Florida Derby (G1), leading from gate-to-wire, and has take charge jockey Calvin Borel in the irons who knows how to win the Kentucky Derby. 9. Gemologist: Undefeated Tiznow colt has the potential to be first Man o War sire-line descendant to win the Kentucky Derby since War Admiral won the Triple Crown in Union Rags: Dixie Union colt lost some luster with third-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1) but can shine bright again with a win in Kentucky. Calvin L. Carter, co-author with Kerry Thomas of Horse Profiling, The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes, is the owner of Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, a bloodstock consulting firm, and he writes about juvenile thoroughbreds on his blog: classicchampionthoroughbreds.blogspot.com. For more information on Carter s book, please visit horseandriderbooks.com. 32 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

4 DADDY NOSE BEST HAS ACTED ON MANY SURFACES, AND HIS BREEDING SUGGESTS HE LL RELISH THE CLASSIC DISTANCE. DENNIS DECAUWER PHOTO CREDIT: DADDY NOSE BEST PHOTO DWAYNE LOO 1. Daddy Nose Best: Son of Scat Daddy has been accomplished on turf, synthetic, and dirt; distance should be his game. 2. Alpha: Ran a solid second in Wood (G1); like confidence trainer has shown; should continue to improve at the right time. 3. Union Rags: Likely favorite has talent; might not appreciate the last eighth of a mile. 4. El Padrino: Long duel with foe in Risen Star (G2) might have zapped him some for Florida Derby (G1); should be fresher in Louisville. 5. Mark Valeski: Dueled with El Padrino at Fair Grounds; was upset by huge price horse (Hero of Order) in Louisiana Derby (G2); gives his all virtually every time. 6. Creative Cause: West Coast s most consistent threat; ran well enough when third in Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) over Churchill Downs strip. 7. Gemologist: Undefeated and part of Team Pletcher; win over Alpha in the Wood (G1) was game, but I just have a feeling that he ll regress some on Derby day. 8. Bodemeister: Huge win in Arkansas Derby (G1); not sure much was behind him that day, however. 9. I ll Have Another: Connections may say I ll Have Another after the race regardless of the outcome, but I don t think it will be the same raucous celebration as after his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win. 10. Dullahan: Looked good winning Blue Grass but is 0-for-3 on dirt. Dennis Decauwer, a horseplayer and horse owner, is a regular on the NHC Tour, an eight-time qualifier to the NHC, and was the runner-up at the 2009 DRF/NTRA NHC. May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 33

5 FifteenOnTen JOE DEPAOLO WAS HANSEN S RUNNER-UP FINISH IN THE BLUE GRASS (G1) A PAID WORKOUT OR A CONFIRMATION THAT HE WON T HANDLE THE DERBY DISTANCE? PHOTO CREDIT: HANSEN PHOTO DWAYNE LOO 1. Alpha: Showed plenty in his Wood Memorial (G1) defeat. Gets the roses for Godolphin. 2. Bodemeister: Smashed the field in the Arkansas Derby (G1). The West s best hope since Lookin At Lucky. 3. Creative Cause: This runner, like Alpha, was also superb despite falling short in his final prep. Major threat. 4. Hansen: Talented gray returns to the scene of his Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) conquest. Don t count out. 5. Union Rags: Trouble always seems to find this supremely talented son of Dixie Union. Huge player with a clean trip. 6. I ll Have Another: Santa Anita Derby (G1) champ can t be discounted. Another one of the strong West contingent. 7. Gemologist: Trainer Pletcher and owner Winstar Farm teamed up with 2010 Derby winner, Super Saver. Hard to overlook an undefeated runner. 8. Went the Day Well: Animal Kingdom the sequel? Like his Team Valor predecessor, he s the wild card. 9. Take Charge Indy: Regally bred colt had it all his own way up front in the Florida Derby (G1). Little value to be found here with Mr. Borel in the irons 10. Daddy Nose Best: Benefited from a pace collapse in the Sunland Derby (G3). Who s to say that won t happen again on May 5? Joe DePaolo lives in Bayside, NY and can be heard every Saturday and Sunday at 10:00 a.m.et as part of The Fast Track radio show on Fox Sports affiliate KCQL. 34 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

6 JOHN GARVEY IF U.A.E. DERBY (G2) WINNER DADDY LONG LEGS WINS THE DERBY, LOOK FOR FUTURE RUNNERS TO VISIT LOUISVILLE BY WAY OF DUBAI. PHOTO CREDIT: DADDY LONG LEGS PHOTO SHIGEKI KIKKAWA 1. Union Rags: Loved his Florida Derby (G1) as a steppingstone. Got a bad trip and ate some dirt. Should move forward, and he likes Churchill Downs. 2. Creative Cause: Began campaign going 7-furlongs and clearly wants more ground being by Giant s Causeway (IRE). Very impressive in San Felipe (G2), especially after the wire, where he galloped out very strongly. 3. Hansen: Done nothing wrong as a 3-year-old, and the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) has been quite a formful race. 4. Gemologist: Smart Wood (G1) win and loaded with talent. 5. Bodemeister: Wow! If he can sit off horses, look out. 6. El Padrino: Great breeding and a very cool customer; 150,000 people won t rattle him. Very impressive in the Risen Star (G2), and I m drawing a line through the dull fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). Sitting on a big one with a cagey conditioner calling the shots, but is on the bubble with only $250,000 of graded-stakes earnings. 7. Daddy Nose Best: Shipped to two different tracks and surfaces and won. Beat a game Lucky Chappy at Golden Gate and wore down local star Isn t He Clever at Sunland. First Derby for Steve Asmussen? 8. Dullahan: Impressive score in the Blue Grass (G1) from off-the-pace. 9. Alpha: Dreadful trip in the Wood (G1); could be sitting on a big race and is due some racing luck. 10. Daddy Long Legs: Aidan O Brien has figured out how to win big races on this side of the pond, and this guy is by a super-hot sire in Scat Daddy. If he wins, every trainer will be making the Meydan to Churchill move. John Garvey, a former professional soccer player, is a longtime horseplayer. You can find him hanging around Quigley s Corner at Santa Anita. May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 35

7 BRANDI GOODE FifteenOnTen ALPHA S SECOND TO THE UNDEFEATED GEMOLOGIST IN THE WOOD (G1) SHOULD HAVE HIM READY FOR A TOP EFFORT ON DERBY DAY. PHOTO CREDIT: ALPHA PHOT0 SHIGEKI KIKKAWA; BRANDI GOODE PHOTO COURTESY OF KATHERINE MADRUGA 2012; HAT PROVIDED BY DEL MAR HAT COMPANY, CAROL BADER DESIGNS 1. Alpha: Royally bred, royally owned, and a gritty, versatile 1-1/4 mile classic horse. 2. Creative Cause: A career record of 8: 4-2-2, all Grade Ones and Twos since his MSW victory. Walks like a duck, quacks like a duck.probably is a duck, with or without blinkers. 3. Union Rags: An obvious standout. Needs to stay out of traffic or he is vulnerable. Trip will be key. 4. Went the Day Well: Can the connections do it again? Big, scopey, tactical, well-bred colt gives them a solid chance. 5. Gemologist: Undefeated, two wins at Churchill, stellar connections, distance pedigree; a win would not shock. 6. Bodemeister: Flashy, talented, fast colt. But there are too many unknowns for me: what will he do in traffic, behind horses, with pressure? 7. Take Charge Indy: If he moves forward off the Florida Derby (G1), he is a valid choice. Will pay attention to his workouts at Churchill. 8. Daddy Nose Best: The most experienced horse in the field with 10 starts at 6 different tracks has had a strong work pattern at Churchill and should be fresh and closing. 9. I ll Have Another: Very talented colt with a great running style, just not experienced enough for me. The one time he left town he got creamed in Saratoga. 10. Dullahan: Keeneland Polytrack specialist is 0-for-3 at Churchill on dirt but could be rolling late. Brandi Goode is the Manager of Racehorse/Thoroughbred Sales for FarmVet, an equine-supply company. She grew up with a family of horsemen, represented the United States in international show jumping, and worked across the country at various racetracks and sales. 36 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

8 RICH HALVEY THE VERSATILE DULLAHAN SHOWED HE CAN HANDLE ANY SURFACE, INCLUDING DIRT, AS EVIDENCED BY HIS FOURTH-PLACE FINISH IN THE BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE (G1). PHOTO CREDIT: DULLAHAN PHOTO DWAYNE LOO 1. Alpha: In the who knows Derby, you have to put someone on top. Beautifully bred and maturing quickly. Should get to the Derby at the peak of his game. 2. Union Rags: Only question is whether he ll falter in the last eighth of a mile. Ran the most impressive of all in the Florida Derby (G1). 3. Gemologist: Undefeated colt has been perfectly handled by Todd Pletcher. Showed great heart in holding off Alpha in the Wood (G1). Loves Churchill surface (two wins around two turns). 4. Take Charge Indy: Won t get the unpressured trip he got in the Florida Derby (G1), but he doesn t need the lead either. That easy effort should leave him with a full tank in Kentucky. Calvin Borel doesn t hurt. 5. Creative Cause: Had an easy rail trip in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but, even though he got the jump on eventual winner I ll Have Another, he couldn t propel himself to the winner s circle. But if Harrington reinstalls the blinkers, look for a much-improved stretch run. 6. I ll Have Another: Out of the Derby-dominant Raise a Native line. Outgamed what looked to be a distracted Creative Cause after chasing massive long shot Blueskiesnrainbows most of the way. Legitimate contender, but I still am not convinced. 7. Bodemeister: Powerful Arkansas Derby (G1) winner leaves Baffert loaded again for Kentucky. A little short on experience but not on talent. 8. Dullahan: Ground-saving trip in the Blue Grass (G1) but still ran a great race time. Should be the stretch factor in the Derby. 9. Went the Day Well: Bred for the distance. Love his experience carrying weight in large fields. Motion, Johnny V., and the same six-week layoff that worked last year for Animal Kingdom may be déjà vu all over again. 10. Hansen: Questionable pedigree for 1-1/4 miles, and it showed in the Blue Grass (G1). Hellish fractions didn t help, but there s no reason to expect anything different in the Derby. Rich Halvey is the author of The Condition Sign, a book about long-shot form cycles, as well as many handicapping and horseracing articles. He has appeared as a guest handicapper on radio, TV, and on-track. May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 37

9 FifteenOnTen MIKE JOYCE IF YOU RE LOOKING FOR A GRINDER THAT SHOULD BE 100/1, DONE TALKING HAS A LONG-SHOT S CHANCE. PHOTO CREDIT: DONE TALKING PHOTO HORSEPHOTOS.COM 1. Hansen: He s been my number-one since he won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, and I m not jumping ship after his runner-up finish in the Blue Grass (G1). He still finished well, and with his speed, he won t have the traffic trouble a twenty-horse field brings. 2. Bodemeister: AND MAKE IT UP FOR EMPIRE MAKER! What a complete monster this guy is. All other Derby connections shuddered after his tour de force in the Arkansas Derby (G1). 3. Gemologist: He can t goof off after getting the lead like he did in the Wood (G1), but if he sees them, he won t let them by. 4. Take Charge Indy: He is fast, strong, fresh, bred like a champion, and now Pat Byrne looks like a genius after skipping the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to go in the Florida Derby (G1). 5. Dullahan: Couldn t have been managed any better going into the Derby and may have the best turn of foot late. 6. Union Rags: Has the most talent and the most troubled trips of the bunch. Nobody is jumping off after his running against the bias in the Florida Derby (G1), but he needs to navigate this field well. 7. Creative Cause: Blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers blinkers. 8. I ll Have Another: What price are we getting on this guy? The only thing that has ever stopped this horse is rain. 9. Daddy Nose Best: He was damn good in the Sunland Derby (G3), and nobody is giving that race any credit. Exclude this horse from your spread tickets only if you hate money. 10. Done Talking: Winner of this year s Giacomo Award for Slowest Horse in the Derby with a Chance to Grind Them All Down at 100/1. Mike Joyce, a frequent contributor to The HorsePlayer Magazine, is an on-air commentator for TVG. 38 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

10 UNDEFEATED WOOD (G1) WINNER GEMOLOGIST LOOKS TO GIVE HIS TRAINER, TODD PLETCHER, HIS SECOND DERBY VICTORY. JOHN PANAGOT PHOTO CREDIT: GEMOLOGIST PHOTO HORSEPHOTOS.COM 1. Gemologist: An undefeated 5-for-5 on three different tracks, not to mention 2-for-2 at Louisville. Running style should keep him out of trouble and distance might even help. 2. Bodemeister: Fastest son of Empire Maker in recent memory. So lightly raced, which is appealing and distracting at the same time for the Derby. Was the most visually impressive of all 3-year-olds in his blinkers-off Arkansas Derby (G1) performance. Total package. Scary. 3. I ll Have Another: Was a little skeptical when they skipped the San Felipe (G2), but he was impressive and gritty in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) thriller. He s by Travers (G1) winner Flower Alley and out of an Arch mare. Arch won a stakes race at 1-3/16 miles and sired Breeders Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame. Distance should be no problem. A real good horse. 4. Union Rags: Has been arguably the flashiest colt on the list and could be the most talented. However, questions surround the son of Dixie Union. Distance is a major question mark; that has been documented. It also bothers me how he found trouble in the Champagne (G1) though he overcame that and then some and even more so in the Florida Derby (G1). Those were both small fields; what happens when he runs against nineteen others? 5. Dullahan: Romans will make Blue Grass (G1) winner s third start off the layoff the Kentucky Derby. Ran huge in both starts this season. Distance will be no problem, and he s lightly raced. 6. Alpha: Son of Bernardini is top-notch. In his three defeats, the winners were Union Rags, Hansen, and Gemologist. Do you put that to his credit or do you hold that against him? The place horses in his three wins were Speightscity, Stephanoatsee, and Invocation. Until he beats one of the bigs, he has to stay on this side of the top five. 7. Went the Day Well: Broke maiden on Gulfstream dirt second time in this country. In his first stateside start, he was beaten less than 2-lengths to Teeth of the Dog (third in the Grade One Wood Memorial). He s since strangled the average Spiral (G3) field in green fashion. Following eerily similar path as Animal Kingdom did a year ago. Huge upside. 8. Creative Cause: You don t see many win their prep for the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then take the blinkers off for the actual big race, where he ran second. One can trust the flip-flopping for only so long. Ran huge at Churchill Downs in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1). 9. Daddy Nose Best: Asmussen has done wonders with this horse: synthetic in the El Camino Real (G3) and dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3), and he s all of a sudden a jack-of-all-trades. Can t fault him for winning in the right spots. 10. Take Charge Indy: It s not like he s a need-the-lead horse; he just happened to win the Florida Derby (G1) that way. Has always shown ability, and his jockey, Calvin Borel, has won the Derby three times. John Panagot spent 3-1/2 years as Graham Motion s stable manager, where they campaigned nine different horses Grade One winners, most famously: Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby, Shared Account in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, and Toby s Corner in the Wood Memorial. Panagot now serves as Robert LaPenta s Senior Racing Manager. LaPenta has made his mark with runners such as War Pass, The Cliffs Edge, Da Tara, Dialed In, and Ice Box, among others. May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 39

11 FifteenOnTen RON RIPPEY BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE CONNECTIONS OF LAST YEAR S DERBY VICTOR, ANIMAL KINGDOM, WENT THE DAY WELL SHOWED HIS ABILITY BY STEPPING UP AND WINNING THE SPIRAL STAKES (G3) AFTER JUST BREAKING HIS MAIDEN. 4. Gemologist: Has the pedigree to get the Derby distance as an offspring of two-time Breeders Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow; also has a big advantage having already posted a victory over the Churchill Downs surface, and he would not quit when confronted by Alpha in the stretch drive while winning the Wood (G1). 5. Union Rags: Loomed a heavy Derby favorite until he lost in the Florida Derby (G1) as the 2/5 favorite after a terrible trip, where he was eventually blocked in the stretch behind a wall of colts before shaking loose and finishing fast. He still may be the one to beat. 6. Daddy Nose Best: Loses Julien Leparoux to Union Rags, but he may have more class and late punch than is evident after winning in New Mexico; taking a similar path to the Derby as Mine That Bird, who paid $ Dullahan: Became an off-the-pace threat with his rally from tenth to first in the Blue Grass (G1), overtaking Hansen. However, the colt pulled up quickly after the wire and didn t gallop out well, leaving concern about his fitness. However, he regained his stride in his jog to the winner s circle. 1. Went the Day Well: Became a force when he roared from off-the-pace to win the Spiral (G3) on Turfway Park s Polytrack. He has been following an incredibly similar path as last year s Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, who defied conventional logic to go from grass success to victory at Churchill Downs. He proved his ability to handle dirt in his prior victory at Gulfstream Park and has the same Graham Motion-trained connections as Animal Kingdom. And he has the all-important breeding to get the 1-1/4 mile distance. 2. Alpha: From the powerful Godolphin Stable, he was pinned in and steadied on the first turn in the Wood (G1), which contributed to his defeat to undefeated Gemologist. In his first five starts, his only poor effort was when he acted up at the gate in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) last year. After going on Lasix, he won his first two starts this year going away. The stage may be set for the start of an intense head-to-head rivalry with Gemologist throughout the year. 3. Bodemeister: By Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker, he would defy history by becoming the first Derby winner that did not race as a 2-year-old. But the dominating way he won the Arkansas Derby (G1) with the removal of blinkers puts him ahead of most of the contenders. There is still the question of if he has enough racing experience, but by far he was the most dominating runner in the Derby preps. 8. Hansen: Was a questionable prospect to get the Derby distance, despite winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, until he showed an ability to rate to win the Gotham Stakes (G3). That new-found tactic put him on top of the Derby contenders until he acted up throughout the post parade in the Blue Grass (G1), where he then set the pace and was overpowered at the finish by Dullahan. The huge crowd at Churchill Downs will be to his disadvantage, but he does possess the early speed to challenge anyone for the lead. 9. Take Charge Indy: Shocked Union Rags in the Florida Derby (G1) with a gate-to-wire victory under Calvin Borel, who becomes a superstar at Derby time. Skipping the softer Tampa Bay Derby (G3) may have been the right play for the colt, who, despite his front-running style, may have the best pedigree for the Derby distance. 10. Secret Circle: May have trouble getting the distance, but the grinder didn t quit in a grinding second-place effort against Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby (G1). He may get part of the superfecta with his never-sayquit attitude, but that s about it. Ron Rippey, the 2006 DRF/NTRA NHC champion, has qualified for the national finals eight times, including the last seven years in a row. He has been The Star-Ledger handicapper since 1978, and he is routinely on the leaderboard both in online tournaments and at racetracks throughout the country. PHOTO CREDIT: WENT THE DAY WELL PHOTO HORSEPHOTOS.COM 40 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

12 CREATIVE CAUSE, SAN FELIPE (G2) VANQUISHER OF BODEMEISTER AND SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) RUNNER-UP, WAS FLATTERED BY ARKANSAS DERBY (G1) RESULT. FRANK R. SCATONI PHOTO CREDIT: CREATIVE CAUSE PHOTO KATEY BARRETT 1. Union Rags: I loved him in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1), and he lost to a very game Hansen. I m pretty sure the outcome will be different in the Derby. His effort in the Fountain of Youth (G2) was super-impressive, and I m willing to forgive his third-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1) since he was boxed in along the backstretch and shuffled back on the far turn; when he saw daylight, he came on very strong. 2. Creative Cause: Hate the fact that he s such a goofball in the lane, but at least he ll have the added distance to sort things out throughout the stretch run. San Felipe (G2) vanquisher of Bodemeister and Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up was handsomely flattered by Bodemeister s monster effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1). 3. Bodemeister: In Baffert we trust all others pay cash. Who cares that this freak didn t race as a 2-year-old? If there s one guy who can buck history and have this impressive Arkansas Derby (G1) winner ready for a peak effort come Derby day, it s Baffert. 4. Dullahan: Taking the Paddy O Prado route to the Derby via the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) (a decent second) and the Blue Grass (G1) (a nice win). If you re looking for a stretch-runner, he s your man. 6. Alpha: This guy is just a cool racehorse. He shows up for work, and he gives it his all, as was evidenced by his excellent runner-up performance in the Wood (G1) after getting the worst of it going into the first turn. 7. Take Charge Indy: Was meant to be a top-flight runner, and he showed it by beating a nice field in the Florida Derby (G1), albeit with a nice, easy, loose-on-thelead trip. I like the confidence the connections showed by skipping the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to take on the best of the East in Florida. 8. Went the Day Well: He s very talented, but he s bound to be an underlay because everyone and their brother will talk about how he s practically the mirror image of last year s Derby victor, Animal Kingdom. 9. Daddy Nose Best: Steve Asmussen has kept this guy under-the-radar, beating up on lesser competition in order to gain the graded-stakes earnings needed to get in the starting gate but hey, getting there is half the battle. 10. I ll Have Another: He outgamed my second choice, Creative Cause, in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and he ll probably be twice the price. 5. Gemologist: Todd Pletcher with an undefeated colt that was very game in victory in the Wood (G1)? Sign me up. (But to play devil s advocate for just one second: he did have an absolute perfect trip in that race.) Frank R. Scatoni is the editor of The HorsePlayer Magazine and provides handicapping analysis for the e-newsletters of TVG, Del Mar Thoroughbred Club, and Santa Anita Park. May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 41

13 FifteenOnTen TREY STILES EL PADRINO DISAPPOINTED IN THE FLORIDA DERBY (G1), BUT HIS PRIOR RACES SHOWED THAT HE S TALENTED ENOUGH TO COMPETE IN THE DERBY IF HE GETS IN. PHOTO CREDIT: EL PADRINO PHOTO COPYRIGHT 2011 LOU HODGES 1. Daddy Nose Best: Fast pace set up his closing kick in the Sunland Derby (G3), but he looked solid. I like his style of running for the Kentucky Derby. The price should be nice best bang for your buck. Prediction: Daddy by a nose. 2. Gemologist: Undefeated colt showed awesome heart holding off hard-charging Alpha for the Wood (G1) win. If he continues to get better each race, he will be wearing the roses. 3. Bodemeister: Can a horse win the Derby without running as a 2-year-old? Did you see the Arkansas Derby (G1) romp? Awesome. 4. Creative Cause: Impressive San Felipe (G2) win was followed by a solid second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He didn t need to win his last and is set up to show his best in the Derby. 5. I ll Have Another: His 2011 campaign did not impress me, but his two 2012 outings, including a game win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), put him right up there with the big boys. 6. Alpha: Another intriguing possibility; he has improved in each of his three efforts in If he had passed Gemologist in the Wood (G1), he would be at the top of this list. Still, pretty strong. 7. Dullahan: Has a big closing kick and seems to be getting better with each race two qualities I like in a legit Derby contender. 8. Daddy Long Legs: Looked good when seen last in Dubai defeating his highly regarded stablemate Wrote (IRE), but the $2 million U.A.E. Derby (G2) set up perfectly for him. Dubai is a long way to prep for Kentucky. Still, you have to respect a horse that won his last race for that much cash. Money talks. 9. El Padrino: Last two races before the lackluster Florida Derby (G1) were very impressive. May have had excuses in that race. I d rate both him and #10 Mark Valeski higher, but they re both on the Derby earnings bubble and may not make the field. If they do, however, they re both good value plays. 10. Mark Valeski: If I like El Padrino, then I have to like this horse after the nose-bob Risen Star (G2) defeat. Was next best in the Louisiana Derby (G2) behind the surprise 109/1 winner Hero of Order, or he would be Derby faves. Trey Stiles is a frequent contributor to The HorsePlayer Magazine. He has qualified for the DRF/NTRA NHC a record tenconsecutive years. He works as an attorney with the firm Simon Herbert McClelland & Stiles in Houston, Texas, but is most frequently seen this time of year managing Little League baseball. 42 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

14 PHOTO CREDIT: UNION RAGS PHOTO HORSEPHOTOS.COM DON T BE TOO HARSH ON UNION RAGS FOR HIS THIRD-PLACE FINISH IN THE FLORIDA DERBY (G1); HE HAD A ROUGH TRIP AND STILL CAME ON STRONG LATE. 1. Union Rags: This Dixie Union colt has been my Kentucky Derby horse all year. I m willing to forgive him for his third-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1), where he was boxed in and was against a speed-biased racetrack. I believe the race didn t take much out of him, and he is primed to run a huge race in Louisville. 2. Gemologist: Todd Pletcher s Wood Memorial (G1) winner is undefeated in five career starts. Sired by two-time Breeders Cup Classic (G1) winner Tiznow, so distance should be no problem. Should have a good trip laying right off frontrunners, and you can t fault a horse that has never been defeated. Love the fact that he has two wins at Churchill Downs. 3. Bodemeister: Looked like a superstar in Arkansas Derby (G1), winning by 9-lengths. Lightly raced, talented colt trained by Bob Baffert has done nothing wrong in four career starts. Plenty of upside but lots of history against him, considering no horse unraced at two has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in (Note: this guy just turned 3-years-old on 4/28/12.) 4. Alpha: Bernadini colt was runner-up in Wood Memorial (G1) after enduring a troubled trip. Is fresh, sharp, and has a good closing kick that s suitable for the Kentucky Derby. This could be that elusive Derby victory for Godolphin. 5. Creative Cause: Hard-knocking, battle-tested colt has never been defeated by more than a length in eight career starts. Sired by Giant s Causeway (IRE) and trained by Mike Harrington, he was runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). This colt has shown a tendency to drift out, and that is a major concern for me. 6. Dullahan: Winner of the Blue Grass (G1) passed Hansen with ease. Dullahan has a good closing kick and seems to be coming into the race in good form. Also like the fact that he has plenty of experience. 7. I ll Have Another: Like the way he dug in to win Santa Anita Derby (G1) and seems to be coming into the Kentucky Derby (G1) fresh and in great form. Bred to handle distance, being by former Travers (G1) winner Flower Alley. 8. Hansen: Beloved gray colt sired by Tapit and winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile (G1) was easily passed in the stretch by Dullahan for a second-place finish in the Blue Grass (G1). Has proven he doesn t need the lead to win and has a heart of gold, but getting 1-1/4 miles will be dicey. 9. Take Charge Indy: Extremely well-bred top-to-bottom by A. P. Indy and Take Charge Lady, he had everything go right in his Florida Derby (G1) victory, considering the major speed- and rail-biases that day. Major concerns about him not placing in two prior Grade One efforts and the fact that he may get caught up in a speed duel. 10. Daddy Nose Best: Sunland Derby (G3) winner has showcased the ability to dig in and win stretch duels. I m not sure if he is good enough to win this, but he is a definite exotics contender nonetheless. Gabriel Vartanian is an avid horseplayer who has been reading the Daily Racing Form since the age of eight, and he hit his first Pick 6 at age twelve. He can be found on GABRIEL VARTANIAN May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 43

15 FifteenOnTen JON WHITE SANTA ANITA DERBY (G1) WINNER I LL HAVE ANOTHER IS BRED TO RELISH THE CLASSIC DISTANCE. PHOTO CREDIT: I LL HAVE ANOTHER PHOTO TOM BAKER 1. I ll Have Another: The Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner is talented, game, and bred to relish the 1-1/4 mile trip. 2. Creative Cause: This genuine colt has yet to finish worse than third in eight career starts; major player. 3. Daddy Nose Best: Two 9-furlong victories + a 100 Beyer Speed Figure = a Kentucky Derby upset? 4. Dullahan: I absolutely loved his Blue Grass (G1); that performance makes him a serious contender, but he must avoid traffic trouble. 5. Union Rags: I d like him a lot more if he had higher Beyer Speed Figures, but his trainer just might have him ready for a big effort on May Alpha: He narrowly lost the Wood Memorial (G1) despite early trouble; much stamina in his pedigree adds to his appeal. 7. Hansen: Can the 2-year-old champ emulate Street Sense as a Breeders Cup Juvenile(G1)/Kentucky Derby (G1) winner? 8. Take Charge Indy: He won the Florida Derby (G1) when able to set an easy pace; his paternal grandsire (Seattle Slew) swept the Triple Crown. 9. Bodemeister: A monster Arkansas Derby (G1) victory will probably hurt his Kentucky Derby price; the last Kentucky Derby winner that didn t race as a 2-year-old was Apollo in Gemologist: He s undefeated in five lifetime starts and showed heart (much like his sire, Tiznow) to capture the Wood Memorial (G1). Jon White, who has been a steward and horse owner, is the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and a commentator for HRTV. He will be making the official morning lines for this year s Breeders Cup races at Santa Anita. 44 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE May/June

16 CONSENSUS CONSENSUS SELECTION BODEMEISTER EARNED THE MOST POINTS BUT GARNERED ONLY TWO FIRST-PLACE VOTES ONE LESS THAN BOTH UNION RAGS AND ALPHA. PHOTO CREDIT: BODEMEISTER PHOTO SHIGEKI KIKKAWA THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE CONSENSUS PICKS FOR THE 138 TH RUNNING OF THE KENTUCKY DERBY (G1) 1. Bodemeister: 99 (2)* 2. Union Rags: 91 (3)* 3. Creative Cause: Alpha: 82 (3)* 5. Gemologist: 82 (1)* 6. Dullahan: I ll Have Another: 62 (1)* 8. Daddy Nose Best: 52 (2)* 9. Take Charge Indy: Hansen: 43 (1)* Other Contenders Earning Points: Went the Day Well: 32 (1)*; El Padrino: 14; Mark Valeski: 7; Daddy Long Legs: 4; Prospective: 2; Done Talking: 1; Secret Circle: 1. * Number of first-place votes received. May/June 2012 THE HORSEPLAYER MAGAZINE 45