approaches for the assessment of fisheries under data-limited situations) Jeju, Korea, Oct. 27, 2009

Transcription

1 PIES 18th Annl Mting, FISH Tpic Sin (S2: Ecytm-bd pprch fr th mnt f fihri ndr dt-limitd ittin) Jj, Kr, Oct. 27, 29 Intrnnl-dcdl vribility f dmrl fih cmmnity in th Jpn S: Impct f climt rgim hift nd trwl fihing with rcmmndtin fr cytm-bd mngmnt Yngjn Tin, Hidki Kidkr nd Tdnri Fjin Jpn S Ntinl Fihri Rrch Intitt, Fihri Rrch Agncy (FRA), Niigt, JAPAN 1

2 Otlin f Thi Stdy 1. Bckgrnd: th lt 198 rgim hift in TW 2. Objctiv, dt nd mthd 3. Vritin pttrn in dmrl fih cmmnity: nlyi f tw trwl fihri dt t in TW 4. Impct f rgim hift nd fihing 5. nclin 2

3 5 45 Ain Mnn RUSSIA Altin Lw ld L Wtr Spci Sbrctic ircltin Atk mckrl, wlly Dcdl Scl? pllck, Pcific cd, tc. 4 PF Fihing ENSO 35 3 T Sbtrpicl ircltin KOREA ENSO-cl? 2m 2m JAPAN 2m Wrm Wtr Spci Tn, yllwtil, Jck mckrl, cmmn qid, tc

4 Wtr tmprtr t 5m: indictr f Thim Wrm rrnt (TW) Tmprtr nmli (dgr li) Tmprtr nmli (dgr li) W in S m () WINTER Anmli Sm STARS-dfind trnd Anmli Sm STARS-dfind trnd (b) SUMMER cld w r m w r m cld w r m Sm (dgr li Sm (dgr li Wintr WT: rgim hift rnd 1986/87 Smmr WT: tp chng rnd mid-199 Wintr nd mmr vritin pttrn r diffrnt 4

5 tch Trnd in th Jpn S dring (Fihri ttitic: 54 pci by trphic grp) ) n t (th h tc 2 15 ic tr m d n 1 5 picivr plgic pci rdin dmrl fih invrtbrt mll plgic rdin dmrl Th 54 pci ccntd fr 91% f ttl ctch in th Jpn S. Th mll plgic grp (zplnktivr) i dminnt with lrg intr-nnl vritin, dcrd brptly inc lt 198 with th cllp f rdin. 5

6 hng in prprtin f ttl ctch by grp 1% 8% h tc 6% f n r ti 4% r p P 2% picivr plgic pci rdin dmrl fih invrtbrt dmrl mll plgic rdin picivr invrtbrt % Prprtin f lrg fih (picivr) nd dmrl pci (fih nd invrtbrt) incrd lrgly inc th lt 198; whr th mll plgic grp (zplnktivr) dcrd with th cllp f rdin. 6

7 Rpn prc t lt 198 rgim hift in TW ngtiv pitiv Wrm wtr pci Plgic, migrtry (Smmr-tmn) ld wtr pci Dmrl, hbitt (Wintr-pring) ngtiv Thi Stdy Fcd n Dmrl fih cmmnity zplnktn phytplnktn Wrm wtr pci Plgic, migrtry (Smmr-tmn) ld wtr pci Dmrl, hbitt (Wintr-pring) ngtiv pitiv ld wtr tmprtr Wrm wtr tmprtr Intnifictin f Altin Lw nd Ain mnn cld 198 Wkn f Ain mnn AOI pitiv wrm Tin t l. (28)

8 OBJETIVES 1. T idntify th vribility in th dmrl fih mblg Finl Gl T ndrtnd th fnctin nd trctr f th dmrl fih cmmnity twrd cytm-bd fihri mngmnt 2. T nrvl th rpn pttrn f dmrl fih mblg t th lt- 198 cnic rgim hift in th Jpn S 3. T th impct f trwl fihing n th vribility f drml fih mblg 8

9 Dt nd Mthd 1. Tw bttm trwl dt t in Jpn S Singl trwlr: : 27 trgt pci Pir trwlr: : 11 trgt pci ctch, ffrt 2. 5m dpth WT tim ri: Principl mpnnt Anlyi (PA) 4. Rgim hift dtctin: STARS mthd by Rdinv (24) 9

10 Tw Trwl fihri in th Jpn S KOREA T PF RUSSIA L JAPAN Fihing grnd, mthd nd trgt pci r diffrnt btwn th tw fihri. Singl Trwlr Pir Trwlr Dp ffhr ld- nd wrm wtr pci Atk mckrl, wlly pllck, Pcific cd, tnnr crb, pink hrimp, tc. ntinntl hlf Mtly Wrm Wtr Spci Sbrm, flndr, lrghd hirtil, Llig qid, tc.

11 Singl-trwlr : 27 Trgt pci N Jpn Nm Scintific Nm Englih Nm Dpth (m)lif pn (yr) rrnt 1 マダラ Gd mcrcphl Pcific cd 2-3 >12 W 2 スケトウダラ Thrgr chlcgrmm Wlly pllck 1-5 >11 W 3 ホッケ Plrgrmm zn Arbq grnling <2 >8 W 4 ハタハタ Arctcp jpnic Jpn ndfih W 5 サメ エイ ( アブラ Sql cnthi Pikd dgfih >1 W 6 ハツメ Ebt wtni Owntn' rckfih 19-3 >1 W 7 ヒレグロ Glyptcphl tllri witch flndr 2-3 >12 W 8 アカガレイ Hippglid dbi flthd flndr 15-5 >1 W 9 マガレイ Plrnct hrzntini brwn l 3-13 >1 W 1 その他のカレイ Plrnctid thr righty flndr W 11 ホッコクアカエビ Pndl brli Pink hrimp W 12 ズワイガニ hinct pili Tnnr crb 2-5 >1 W 13 ソウハチ Hippglid pintrm pinthd flndr WW 14 ムシガレイ Eptt grigrjwi httd hlibt <14 >1 WW 15 ヤナギムシガレイ Tnki kithri willwy flndr 8-15 >1 WW 16 ニギス Glndn mifcit Dp mlt <2 5 WW 17 ヒラメ Prlichthy livc btrd hlibt <15 >1 WW 18 マダイ Pgr mjr Silvr brm <1 >1 WW 19 チダイ Evynni jpnic crimn brm 3-13 >6 WW 2 キダイ Dntx tmifrn dp nppr <2 >8 WW 21 エソ Syndntid Lizrdfih <12 <4 WW 22 グチ ( シログチ ) Scinid (Argyrm rkr ? WW 23 カナガシラ Lpidtrigl micrptr rdwing rbin WW 24 タチウオ Trichir jpnic Lrghd hirtil WW 25 アカムツ Ddrlini brycid blckthrt prch (Fml) WW 26 イカ類 Sqid <2 <2 WW 27 タコ類 Octp <2 WW Ttl 27 pic itm 12 cld wtr pci: Dp wtr Lng-livd Nrthrn ditribtin 15 wrm wtr pci: tl nd cntinntl hlf Shrt-livd Sthrn ditribtin W: ld Wtr WW: Wrm Wtr Nihimr (1969) 深海冷水性種浅海暖水性種 x 11

12 Singl-trwlr : tch, ffrt nd PUE ) n t d n (th 2 h tc 1 tch Offhr Nrthtrn ntrl Sthwtrn l) g /h (k E U P PUE Nrthtrn ntrl Sthwtrn Offhr l 25 h f 2 r b m15 N 1 5 EFFORT Offhr Nrthtrn ntrl Sthwtrn 42 N 41 N 4 N 39 N 38 N 37 N 36 N Offhr Sthwtrn ntrl Nrthtrn N 1 2km 34 N 128 E 13 E 132 E 134 E 136 E 138 E 14 E 142 E 12

13 Singl trwlr: hng in cmpitin 1% 8% 1% 8% Prprtin 6% 4% Offhr Wrm ld Prprtin 6% 4% Nrthtrn Wrm ld 2% 2% % % 8% % % 8% Prprtin 6% 4% 2% ntrl Wrm ld Prprtin 6% 4% 2% Sthwtrn Wrm ld % % N 6 41 N 4 N Offhr Nrthtrn 4 (d) Rgim hift indx Sthwtrn (nd whl r) 39 N 38 N 37 N 36 N Sthwtrn ntrl RSI 2 P =.1, L = 2 H = 1 ntrl Nrthtrn N N 1 2km 128 E 13 E 132 E 134 E 136 E 138 E 14 E 142 E

14 PA fr trgt pci f ingl-trwlr: () P1=36.6% 1..5 r c S (b) P2=17.3% r. c S (c) P3=11.3% r c S. P1-3: 65% f ttl vrinc Stp chng ccrrd in P1 rnd lt 198, nd in P2 in mid-199. P1 nd P2 crrpndd wll t wintr nd mmr WT, rpctivly

15 Pir-trwlr: Trgt pci, ctch, ffrt nd PUE dring % thr pci 5 9 Prprtin f ctch 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % blckthrt prch lrghd hirtil dp mlt cngr nd pik l lizrdfih righty flndr brm thr qid wrdtip qid pr qid thr pci 4 pr qid Fihing ffrt ) n3 (t h tc l) h f r b m r t (n f E 11 Trgt Spci (Tx) Llig qid, Sbrm, flndr, lrghd hirtil, tc l) g /h (k E U P PUE (ttl pci) PUE (pr qid)

16 PA fr trgt pci f pir-trwlr: () P1=59% 1..5 r c S (b) P2=18% r c S P1-2: 67% f ttl vrinc P1 (P2): chngd rnd lt 198 (mid- 199) P1 nd P2 crrpndd wll t wintr nd mmr WT, rpctivly 16

17 Rpn f P t Wtr tmprtr Singl Trwlr Pir Trwlr 3 2 y =.7994x R² =.4362 P1 Win WT 3 2 y =.761x R² =.4376 P1 Win WT r c S P 1 r c S P r S c P y =.5992x R² =.2397 Wtr tmprtr( ) P2 Sm WT r S c P y =.5933x 1.76 R² =.2114 Wtr tmprtr ( ) P2 Sm WT Wtr tmprtr( ) Wtr tmprtr( ) P1- Wintr WT P2- Smmr WT 17

18 3 ) l 25 (h r t f 2 g in h 15 i F 1 Singl Trwlr ffrt ctch Impct f fihing? Singl Trwlr ) n t d n (th h tc 5 4 ) n 3 (t h tc 2 1 Pir Trwlr tch Effrt ) l (h rt f E l) /h g (k E U P Singl Trwlr PUE v EFFORT y = -.1x R² = Fihing ffrt (hl) l) /h g (k E U P Pir trwlr PUE v EFORT y =.16x R² = Fihing ffrt (hl) Impct f fihing fr whl trgt pci md nt bvi, bt... 18

19 Impct f fihing: pr qid: min trgt f pir-trwlr Abndnc indx (m trnd ctch nd PUE) chngd rnd 199. Etimtd Fihing Mrtlity by DLry Mdl 2 x 15 d In c n1 d n b A 5 Abndnc Indx STARS-dfind trnd Linr trnd y = x R 2 = P =.1 L = 15 H = 1 n t i fic c lity rt m g in h i F ld Wrm Fihing mrtlity incrd dring wrm-rgim, cclrtd th cllp f pr qid tck. Tin (29): Fih. R.,1,

20 198 cld Singl Trwlr: tw min trgt pci Wlly pllck 42 N PUE(198-84) N N N 38 N 37 N 36 N ld wtr pci 4 N ld rgim 42 N PUE(198-84) N N Incr in bndnc 38 N (Expnin f ditribtin) 37 N 36 N Pcific cd 35 N 35 N 34 N 128 E 13 E 132 E 134 E 136 E 138 E 14 E 34 N 128 E 13 E 132 E 134 E 136 E 138 E 14 E 42 N PUE( ) 42 N PUE( ) wrm 41 N 4 N 39 N 38 N 37 N 36 N Wrm rgim 41 N N Dcr in bndnc 39 N (Rdctin f ditribtin) 38 N 37 N 36 N N 35 N 34 N 128 E 13 E 132 E 134 E 136 E 138 E 14 E 34 N 128 E 13 E 132 E 134 E 136 E 138 E 14 E 2

21 PUE PUE Singl Trwlr: PUE fr 4 indictr pci ld wtr pci Wrm wtr pci Wlly pllck 5 12 Willwy flndr Nrthtrn PUE trnd wr diffrnt ntrl Sthwtrn btwn Nrthtrn nd within pci; 4 ntrl Sthwtrn 2.5 nd UPE fr ingl. pci PUE( Sthwtrn) wr l diffrnt by thrml Nrthtrn Nrthtrn Pinthd flndr Pcific cd ntrl ntrl 2. rgim Sthwtrn nd rgin: 1.5 Sthwtrn indicting diffrnt 1. impct f fihing. It i ncry t th impct f fihing PUE( Sthwtrn) fr ch pci. ld Wrm ld Wrm PUE PUE PUE( Sthwtrn) PUE( Sthwtrn) 21

22 ONLUSIONS (1) Similr vritin pttrn wr idntifid in th ingl- nd pir-trwlr trgt pci frm PA, indicting dcdl vribility in th dmrl fih cmmnity. Stp chng ccrrd in th lt 198 rltd frm th cnic rgim hift. P1-2 r wll crrpndd t wintr nd mmr WT in intrnnl-dcdl cl, ggting tht vritin in dml fih cmmnity r lrgly frcd by WT in TW. 22

23 ONLUSIONS (2) mpitin f trgt pci f trwl fihri chngd; Rpn pttrn r diffrnt btwn cld- nd wrm-wtr pci t climtic rgim hift. Th impct f fihing w lrgly diffrnt by thrml rgim, rgin nd pci: ncry t impct f fihing fr ch pci. Fihri mnt hld tk int ccnt th impct f rgim hift nd fihing, dditin t chng in cmpitin f trgt pci nd diffrnt rpn pttrn t rgim hift. 23