Paleoclimate analysis for Northern New Mexico from tree rings
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1 Paleoclimate analysis for Northern New Mexico from tree rings Dendroclimatology Class Summer Tree Ring School, Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, May, 18 June,
2 Outline 1. Objectives 2. Site description 3. Methods, results, discussions: Group 1: Reconstruction of climate conditions using PCI of individual site chronologies Group 2: Reconstruction of PDSI using individual site chronologies Group 3: Reconstruction of climate conditions using regional chronology 4. Conclusions
3 General Objectives Extend existing tree ring chronologies for Northern New Mexico (Jemez Mts) Reconstruct climate conditions Analyze reconstructed climate conditions for extreme events, fire, atmospheric circulation patterns etc
4 Research area: New Mexico, USA
5 Research area: New Mexico, USA
6
7 Regional Annual Temperature and Precipitation Data Mean Monthly Temperature ( C) Mean Annual T 7.85¼ C J F M A M J J A S O N D Monthly PPT (mm) Mean Ann PPT J F M A M J J A S O N D
8 Group 1 Oct June PCA Precipitation Reconstruction for Northern New Mexico (NM2) Alana Belcon, Anna Coppola, Ellis Margolis, Liz Palchak
9 Standardization and Detrending PCG Data Variable PCG-15A PCG-15A_1 meanline Data Variable PCG-14A PCG-14A_1 meanline Data Variable PCG-13B PCG-13B_1 meanline Data Variable PCG-13A PCG-13A_1 meanline Data Variable PCG-11B PCG-11B_1 meanline Data Variable PCD-3A PCD-3A_1 meanline * 8 Chronologies * Removed incorrect value * Detrending: cubic smoothing spline 50% of the variance over 75%
10 Residual chronologies Residual New Mexico Crns Variable Data UL A75R meanline Variable Data ME A R meanline Variable Data EAU1 R meanline Variable Data BCM1 R meanline Variable Data AMPN_R meanline Variable Data PCG2 R meanline Variable Data FEN1 R meanline Variable Data BCW1 R meanline
11 Response Function Analysis October-June monthly PPT selected
12 Principal Component Analysis 6 Scree Plot of PC's derived from 8 chronologies 5 Eigenvalue Component Number PC1 accounts for the 75% of variance
13
14
15 Monthly Anomalies of 1941 from the Means
16
17 New Mexico Reconstruction Precipitation Values
18 Correlation 0.57 Reconstructed Precipitation and ENSO Index 10yr moving avg anomalies
19 Ten driest years (Oct - June precip, ) yr Instrumental (in.) rank yr Reconstructed (in.) rank Ten wettest years yr Instrumental rank yr Reconstructed rank
20 Composite 500mb geopotential height anomalies 10 driest yrs Tree ring reconstructed Oct Dec Jan Mar
21 Composite 500mb geopotential height anomalies 10 wettest yrs Tree ring reconstructed Oct Dec Apr Jun Jan Mar
22 Group 2 May July PDSI Reconstruction for Northern New Mexico (NM2) Gunnar Carnwath, Nancy Li, Stephanie McAfee & Lucy Mullin
23 What is PDSI? Dimensionless index of drought severity Function of temperature and precipitation in current and preceding months
24 Methods Chronology Development: ARSTAN Identify Climate Signal: RFA Develop Transfer Function: Multiple Linear Regression Reconstruct PDSI Model Assessment
25 Mean series length Mean sensitivity Chronology Statistics: Upper Los Alamos Mesa Alta Echo Amphitheater Rbar Variance due 11.8% 14.1% 13.6% to AR EPS > (3) 824 (3) 1367 (3)
26 Chronology Development: Standardize: 75% of series length spline EAU Residual Chronology EA U RWI Sample Depth 10 per. Mov. Avg. (EAU RWI) Ring Width Index Sample Depth (trees) Year MEA Residual Chronology MEA RWI Sample Depth 10 per. Mov. Avg. (MEA RWI) Ring Width Index Year Sample Depth (Trees)
27 Response Function Analysis (RFA)
28 RFA: Correlation Analysis
29 Develop Transfer Function: Calibration & Verification R 2 adj R 2 pred Correlation w/ Observed Correlation w/ Verification RE MEA, EAU, and ULA MJJ PDSI = EAU MEA ULA Transfer Function R 2 adj R 2 pred Correlation w/ Observed
30 Results: NM2 May July PDSI PR PDSI OB PDSI 11 yr sd Sample depth 11 per. Mov. Avg. (PR PDSI) 11 per. Mov. Avg. (OB PDSI) PDSI Year r = Sample Depth
31 Evaluating the Chronology PDSI Reconstruction Predicted PDSI R 2 = Observed PDSI OBSERVED PDSI PREDICTED PDSI Mean Standard Error Standard Deviation Kurtosis Skewness Minimum Maximum Confidence Level(95.0%)
32 Comparing the 10 driest years -2 Boxplot of Reconstructed, Instrumental -3 Data -4 PDSI -5-6 Reconstructed Instrumental
33 Differences in 10 driest years: May to July surface temperature Only in instrumental record Present in both Only in reconstruction 2003,1981, 1951, , 2000,1956, 1964, ,1950, 1971, 1989,1976
34 Group 3 Objective: Reconstruction of climate conditions using regional chronology Ekaterina Kuznetsova Giancarlo Marino Piotr Owczarek
35 The Northern New Mexico tree-ring chronology Index Year spline - 67% 10 per. Mov. Avg. (spline - 67%) Number of trees: 47 Number of radii: 82 PIST Pinus strobiformis PSME Pseudotsuga menziensii
36 Graphic of response function
37 Calibration and verification of the model (a) October - June PPT (inch) Calibration ( ) Adj R² = 0.62 Veryfication ( ) r = 0.79 RE = 0.57 October - June PPT (inch) Veryfication 1914( ) 1932 r = 0.79 RE = Year Calibration 1968( ) 1986 Adj R² = Year
38 Calibration and verification of the model (b) Time series plot of actual and reconstructed October-June precipitation October - June PPT (inch) Calibration ( ) Adj R² = 0.6 Cross-Validation = 0.59 Actual Estimated Year
39 14 Scatterplot of PRED vs OBS PRED OBS
40 18 Time-series plot of reconstruction October June precipitation, AD in Threshold PPT (inch) PPT (inch) year 6.94 in Threshold SS of.75 attained 1021 to 2007 (I) with sample of 4 trees SS of.80 attained 1313 to 2007 (I) with sample of 5 trees SS of.85 attained 1380 to 2007 (C) with sample of 6 trees SS of.90 attained 1462 to 2007 (C) with sample of 10 trees year Estimated Actual
41 TW Swetnam, CD Allen and JL Betancourt, 1999, Applied historical ecology: using the past to manage for the future. Ecological Applications 9(4):
42 year PPT (inch) year Estimated Actual PPT (inch) SS of.75 attained 1021 to 2007 (I) with sample of 4 trees SS of.80 attained 1313 to 2007 (I) with sample of 5 trees SS of.85 attained 1380 to 2007 (C) with sample of 6 trees SS of.90 attained 1462 to 2007 (C) with sample of 10 trees in Threshold in Threshold ????????????
43 Conclusions Analyzed chronologies are responding to climate Primarily moisture sensitive for winter precipitation Tree rings reflecting patterns and processes at multiple scales: Regional Disturbance Regimes Sea surface and atmospheric circulation patterns Dendro is FUN!
44 Acknowledgements! Thanks to: Malcolm Hughes Ramzi Touchan Rex Adams Chris Baisan Ron Towner Tom Swetnam Lori Wilson All LTRR faculty and staff and all guest lecturers
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