Supplement of Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ringbased reconstruction

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1 Supplement of Clim. Past,, 9, doi:.94/cp--9--supplement Author(s). CC Attribution. License. Supplement of Multi-century lake area changes in the Southern Altiplano: a tree-ringbased reconstruction M. S. Morales et al. Correspondence to: M. S. Morales (mmorales@mendoza-conicet.gob.ar) The copyright of individual parts of the supplement might differ from the CC-BY. licence.

2 Supplement S. Dates of LANDSAT Images used to calibrate the lake area reconstruction model. LANDSAT MSS , LANDSAT TM Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 97 X 976 X X 977 X X X 978 X X X 979 X X X 98 X X 98 X X 98 X X 98 X X 986 X X X X 987 X 988 X X 989 X X X 99 X X 99 X X 99 X X 99 X X 994 X X X 99 X X X 996 X X 997 X 998 X X 999 X X X X X X X X X 4 X X X X X X X X X X X 6 X X X X X X X X X 7 X X X X X X** X X X 8 X X* X X X X X X 9 X X X X X X X X X X *data for Chojlla lake only, ** data for Coruto lake only

3 S. Comparison between intra- and inter -annual variation in lake area records In order to validate the assumption that intra-annual variation was negligible, and justified the use of the averaged annual data for lake area, we compared for each one of the nine lakes the coefficient of variation at both, intra- and inter- annual time scale from 97 to 9 period. In all cases inter-annual variation was higher than intra-annual. Cerro Negro mean=.4 sd=.7 cv=. mean=.6 sd=.68 cv= S.. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9

4 Del Morro mean=.9 sd=. cv=.6 mean=.7 sd=.6 cv= S.. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9 Isla Grande mean=.6 sd=. cv=.9 mean=. sd=.7 cv= S.. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9

5 Catal mean=.8 sd=. cv=. mean=.8 sd=. cv= S.4. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9 6 Polulos mean=4. sd=. cv= mean=4.7 sd=.7 cv= S.. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9

6 7 6 Chojlla mean=.4 sd=.8 cv=. 7 6 mean=.79 sd=.4 cv= S.6. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9 Palar mean=9.8 sd=.67 cv=.7 mean=. sd=4.6 cv= S.7. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9

7 Coruto mean=.4 sd=.7 cv=.8 mean=. sd=.6 cv= S.8. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9 4 Vilama mean=9.4 sd=. cv=. 4 mean=7.97 sd=6.9 cv= S.9. Monthly and annual (Jan-Dec) mean lake area records from 97 to 9 S. Monthly and annual persistence

8 Autocorrelation analyses were applied to determine persistence in the monthly and annual time series averaged for the nine lakes from 97 to 9 period. This analysis show strong 9 months persistence in the monthly series, while two years persistence was found in the annual series. This analysis was performed using the AnClim program (Stepánek, 8). Monthly Annual 9% c.l. 7 9 Lag 9% c.l. 7 9 N= month Lag= 7 N=4 year Lag= Autocorrelation S. Autocorrelation of the standardized monthly and mean annual (Jan-Dec) lake area record averaged for the nine lakes from 97 to 9. Red short dashed lines represent the. provability level. Number of lag was defined as % of the length of the series (%N). S4. Average of the inter-annual area fluctuation for the nine lakes for the 97 to 9 period. Minimum and maximum mean monthly (intra-annual range) and mean annual (inter-annual range) lake area records with respect to (wrt) 97-9 period. These values were obtained from the figures of intra-annual and inter-annual lake area variability in S. Lakes Average area (km ) wrt 97-9 period Intra-annual Area range (km ) Inter-annual Cerro Negro Del Morro Isla Grande Catal

9 Polulos Chojlla Palar Coruto Vilama S. List of precipitation stations used to estimate the 98 mean annual lake area from the Vilama-Coruto region. Station Lat S / Long W Elevation (m) Period Visviri 7º 7 / 69º Oruro 7º 7 / 67º Alcerreca 7º 9 / 69º Cota Kotani 8º / 69º Putre 8º / 69º Parinacota 8º / 69º S6. Regional Polylepis tarapacana tree-ring chronology Tree Ring Index Series Intercorrelation =.8 Mean Sensitivity =. Mean RBAR =. Mean EPS = Nº tree-ring series Year S6. Regional signal free chronology of Polylepis tarapacana and number of tree ring series for the Northwest Argentina and Southwest Bolivia. The regional chronology covers the period AD 47-8 (N > tree-ring series). Standard chronology statistics (series intercorrelation; mean sensitivity, mean RBar, mean EPS) are in the figure. S7. Comparison between dry events from an historical precipitation reconstruction and the tree-ring lake area reconstruction.

10 Superposed epoch analysis (SEA), a nonparametric technique, was used to determine the relationships between the tree-ring lake area reconstruction and dry events from an historical document based reconstruction of precipitation from Potosí, Bolivia, over the period 8-87 (Gioda and Prieto, 999). In this analysis, the lake area records were used as the background time series and the dates of dry years in the historical series as event years. For each event, a 9-year lake area window, consisting of the event year as the central value plus 4 years before and after the event, was selected. The 9-year lakes areas were averaged for each event to produce a mean lake area pattern related to historical dry event. The mean lake area pattern for the selected years was statistically evaluated for significance (9% confidence interval) by performing, Monte Carlo simulations (Mooney and Duval, 99) from the lake area record. This analysis showed significant below average lake area conditions during the dry event (year ) and the following year (lag year ). The annual dry events of the historical series and lake area reductions were consistently related on inter-annual variations during the common period..4 Dry Events (4) 99% c.l Departure from simulations % c.l Lag year S7. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) comparing reconstructed lake area deviations during the dry events of the historical precipitation reconstruction from Potosí, Bolivia, from 8 to87 period (Gioda and Prieto, 999). The X-axis represents a 9-year window, starting 4 years previous and ending 4 years after the dry event (year ). The time interval used to run SEA analysis was Short dashed and dotted lines represent 9% and 99% confidence interval. S8. References Gioda, A., Prieto, M. R.: Histoire des sécheresses andines: Potosi El Niño et le Petit Age Glaciaire, La Météorologie, 8, 4, 999. Mooney, C. Z., Duval, R. D.: Bootstrapping: a nonparametric approach to statistical inference, Sage University paper series on quantitative applications in the social sciences, Sage University, Newbury Park, 99.

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) CHARTERED BANK ADMINISTERED INTEREST RATES - PRIME BUSINESS*

COMPARISON OF FIXED & VARIABLE RATES (25 YEARS) Fixed Rates Variable Rates FIXED RATES OF THE PAST 25 YEARS AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE LENDING RATE - 5 YEAR* (Per cent) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul