Experiences. Carlos A. Primo Braga, Vandana Chandra, and Israel Osorio Economic Policy and Debt Department, PREM, The World Bank

Transcription

1 Korea and the BICs (Brazil, India, China): Cthi Catching Up Experiences Carlos A. Primo Braga, Vandana Chandra, and Israel Osorio Economic Policy and Debt Department, PREM, The World Bank

2 Outline 1. Introduction 1. Does Technological Catch Up Matter? 2. Theoretical Background 3. Measurement Variables 4. Catching up Experiences 1. Korea 2. China 3. Brazil 4. India 5. Empirical Model 6. Conclusion

3 1. Motivation What is our paper about: Catch up between Korea and the BICs in a global market (using industry level data) Objective: To analyze the interplay between competition and innovation in catch up Analysis focuses on: Comparison of different performances among Korea, China, Brazil and India Testing of Aghion et al. model

4 1.1 Catch up in income per capita: Korea and Brazil Catching up with OECD Countries High Income OECD Singapore High Income non OECD Brazil South Korea Lower Middle Income Source: World Development Indicators

5 1.1 Catch up in income per capita: China and India in the Catch Up Game China Lower Middle Income India Low Income Source: World Development Indicators

6 12Catch 1.2 up in productivity: labor productivity, Source: Penn World Tables

7 1.2 Catch up in productivity: Total Factor Productivity Growth Annual % Source: Authors estimates using Penn World Tables

8 2. Theoretical Background Conventional wisdom: Competition (e.g., trade liberalization) leads to productivity growth and innovation. Schumpeterianmodel: model: Innovation needsrents ; too much competition can be bad for innovation. New Sh Schumpeterian Model: Whether competition is good/bad for innovation and growth depends d on the distance to the technological frontier (inverse U shaped relation between competition and innovation; Aghion, Howitt, et al.).

9 3. Measurement Variables Measures of Competitiveness Policy Variables 1. Productivity it 1. Openness to foreign competition Value Added per Worker Source: UNIDO S INDSTAT 2. Competitiveness in the International Markets Revealed Comparative Advantage Source: Comtrade Tariff levels Source: TRAINS 2. Export orientation Exports as share of output Source: Comtradeand d UNIDO S INDSTAT 3. Technological content Technology definition applied to exports Source: Lall (2000) and Comtrade Distance to the technological l frontier For Brazil, China, and India a relative measure of Productivity Export Orientation in comparison with South Korea

10 3.1 Labor Productivity and distance to the technological frontier Textiles V.A. per Worker (Korea=100)- product 321 V.A. per Worker (Current '000 US$/worker) - product KOR IND BRA CHN KOR IND BRA CHN Product: Textiles Source: UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database, Rev. 2 and 3

11 3.1 Labor Productivity and distance to the technological frontier Electrical machinery V.A. per Worker (Korea=100)- product 383 V.A. per Worker (Current '000 US$/worker) - product KOR IND BRA CHN KOR IND BRA CHN Product: Machinery, electric Source: UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database, Rev. 2 and 3

12 3.1 Labor Productivity and distance to the technological frontier Transport equipment V.A. per Worker (Korea=100)- product 384 V.A. per Worker (Current '000 US$/worker) - product KOR IND BRA CHN KOR IND BRA CHN Product: Transport equipment Source: UNIDO Industrial Statistics Database, Rev. 2 and 3

13 3.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage Textiles RCA, 321 Textiles BRA IND CHN KOR Source: UN Comtrade - concordances between SITC and ISIC Codes

14 3.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage Electrical Machinery RCA, 383 Machinery, electric BRA IND CHN KOR Source: UN Comtrade - concordances between SITC and ISIC Codes

15 3.2 Revealed Comparative Advantage Transport equipment RCA, 384 Transport equipment BRA IND CHN KOR Source: UN Comtrade - concordances between SITC and ISIC Codes

16 3.33 Competitiveness (Tech Definition) Sh hare of pro oducts 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% South Korea: Export competitiveness and catch up in products with a revealed comparative advantage Low Tech 1 Low Tech 2 Med Tech 1&2 Med Tech 3 High Tech 1 High Tech 2 Source: Authors calculations using UN Comtrade database and Lall s (2000) technology definition

17 3.33 Competitiveness (Tech Definition) Share of pr roducts 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% China: Export competitiveness and catch up in products with a revealed comparative advantage Low Tech 1 Low Tech 2 Med Tech 1&2 Med Tech 3 High Tech 1 High Tech 2 Source: Authors calculations using UN Comtrade database and Lall s (2000) technology definition

18 3.33 Competitiveness (Tech Definition) Sh hare of pro oducts 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Brazil: Export competitiveness and catch up in products with a revealed comparative advantage Low Tech 1 Low Tech 2 Med Tech 1&2 Med Tech 3 High Tech 1 High Tech 2 Source: Authors calculations using UN Comtrade database and Lall s (2000) technology definition

19 3.33 Competitiveness (Tech Definition) 60% India: Export competitiveness and catch up in products with a revealed comparative advantage Sh hare of pro oducts 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Low Tech 1 Low Tech 2 Med Tech 1&2 Med Tech 3 High Tech 1 High Tech 2 Source: Authors calculations using UN Comtrade database and Lall s (2000) technology definition

20 3.4 Competition (weighted tariffs) South Korea South Korea: Reduction in tariffs (weighted, %) 18 rates (%) Weighted tariff Textiles Iron and steel Fabricated metals Electrical machinery Professional &Scientific equip Wearing apparel Non-ferrous metals Non-electrical machinery Transport equipment Source: TRAINS

21 3.4 Competition (weighted tariffs) China 90 China: Reduction in weighted tariffs (%) Transport equipment 60 Wearing Apparel Non-metallic mineral products Textiles 30 Non-electrical 20 machinery 10 Iron and steel Food Products 0 Non-f errous metals Food Products Textiles Wearing Apparel Industrial chemicals Petroleum refineries Non-metallic mineral Iron and steel Non-ferrous metals Fabricated metal pro Non-electrical machinery Electrical machinery Transport equipmen Source: TRAINS

22 3.4 Competition (weighted tariffs) Brazil 50 Brazil: Weighted tariff rates (%) Electrical l machinery Iron & steel Non-electrical machinery Food Manuf. Transport equipment Industrial chemicals Petroleum refineries Brazil Paper & products Printing, publishing and allied industries Industrial chemicals Petroleum refineries Iron & steel Non-electrical machinery Electrical machinery Transport equipment Food Manuf. Source: TRAINS

23 3.4 Competition (weighted tariffs) India 100 India - Trade liberalization (weighted tariffs %) ff rate (%) Weighted tari Wearing apparel Non-elect rical machinery Transport equipment 25 Food product s Iron and st eel 0 Petroleum refineries Food products Textiles Wearing apparel Industrial chemicals Petroleum refineries Iron and steel Non-electrical lmachinery Electrical l machinery Transport equipment Source: TRAINS

24 5.1 South Korea, benchmark R id l f i / l i i Rapid structural transformation/selectivity High savings rate/macro stability/education Outward looking strategy (contingent export promotion) Trade liberalization (late 1980s: Average t= 18.1%, 1988) Distance shortening policies: Seeding and expansion of chaebols Increasing focus on industries with high technological content Support to investments in R&D/focus on building indigenous technological capabilities

25 52China 5.2 Structural t ltransformation/selectivity it Shift towards high tech industries Export led growth Distance shortening policies: Allow FDI flows conditional on technology transfer and capability building Longterm finance Foster industries with high technological content Attention to government business interface Growing investments in S&T/R&D

26 53Brazil 5.3 Brazilian Miracle /79, 74/79 followed by the Lost Decade Cth Catch up strategy t relied on ISI (icluding on capital goods) Strong anti export bias only began to fall in the 1990s (trade liberalization and export credits) Diffuse distance shortening policies Unstable support for investment in S&T/R&D Barriers to absorption of embedded knowledge (capital goods protection; FDI driven by domestic market) Policies to enhance innovation competencies of firms were not able to correct for weak educational endowment Weak linkages between private sector and innovation sstems(basic science orientation)

27 54India 5.4 Complex web of government regulations lti and controls during the 1960s 90s (barriers to entry/exit) Late and slow pace of tradeliberalization Limited structural transformation towards high tech industries Distance shortening policies Hand picked industries, but no export orientation Discouraged/Deterred FDI flows Financing provided by the government, but the chosen industries focused onthe domesticmarketmarket Did not foster industries with high technological content Heavy investment in technical skills law of unintended consequences (services revolution)

28 5.5 Comparison of competition and innovation i policies i Competition FDI (Foreign Competition) x Policies Relaxed Antitrust Regulation x Korea Brazil China India Import Substitution x x Export led growth x x Distance shortening / Innovation policies Source: Authors diagram Selectivity Few/Hightech/Performance x x FDI (Conditional Technology Transfer) x x x Fiscal Incentives x x x x Financing i x x x x Policies to strengthen linkages between private sector and academia/public sector X Weak x Weak Science & Tech Education x x x Science & Tech Parks x x

29 5.6 South Korea Selectivity in economic transformation from low to high tech industries Share in total Manufacturing Value Added Rank in Rank in Korea Machinery, electric Transport equipment Machinery, except electrical Industrial chemicals Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Food products Plastic products Petroleum products Textiles Other non-metallic mineral products % of total Source: Authors calculations using UNIDO s INDSTAT4 Database

30 5.6 China Selectivity in economic transformation from low to high tech industries (Korean style) Share in total Manufacturing Value Added Rank in Rank in China Machinery, electric Industrial chemicals Iron and steel Machinery, except electrical Food products Transport equipment Textiles Other non-metallic mineral products Tobacco Petroleum products Non-ferrous metals % of total Source: Authors calculations using UNIDO s INDSTAT4 Database

31 5.6 Brazil Weak selectivity in economic transformation Share in total Manufacturing Value Added Rank in Rank in Brazil Food products Industrial chemicals Transport equipment Petroleum products Iron and steel Machinery, except electrical Machinery, electric Paper and products Fabricated metal products Printing and publishing Other non-metallic mineral products % of total Source: Authors calculations using UNIDO s INDSTAT4 Database

32 5.6 India Weak selectivity in economic transformation Share in total Manufacturing Value Added Rank in Rank in India Industrial chemicals Iron and steel Petroleum products Transport equipment Textiles Food products Machinery, except electrical Machinery, electric Other non-metallic mineral products Non-ferrous metals Fabricated metal products % of total Source: Authors calculations using UNIDO s INDSTAT4 Database

33 57Export 5.7 Export led growth KOREA CHINA Growth in Manuf. Share of output Share of output Value Added (%) exported (%) exported (%) Machinery, electric Transport equipment Machinery, except electrical Industrial chemicals Iron and steel Fabricated metal products Food products Plastic products Petroleum products Textiles Other non-metallic mineral products Non-ferrous metals Source: Authors calculations using UNIDO s INDSTAT4 Database and Comtrade

34 57Export 5.7 Export led growth Brazil India Growth in Manuf. Value Added (%) Share of output exported (%) Share of output exported (%) Food products Industrial chemicals Transport equipment Petroleum Iron and steel Machinery, except electrical Machinery, electric Paper and products Fabricated metal products Printing and publishing Other non-metallic mineral products Textiles Source: Authors calculations using UNIDO s INDSTAT4 Database and Comtrade

35 Source: TRAINS 5.9 Reduction in tariffs in comparative perspective: the Chinese revolution

36 5.9 Liberalization in a comparative perspective: Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers Table 3. Tariff and Non Tariff Measures in BICs - Total Trade Weighted Averaged Tariffs in Total Trade Brazil China India Korea OTRI 1 (MFN applied tariffs plus Non Tariff Measures) Brazil China India Korea Source: TRAINS and World Trade Indicators

37 6. Empirical Methodology LnVAPW i, j, t + β 3DFrontier = α 1 + β 1 DFrontier i, j, t 1 + β 2 Competition i, j, t 1 * Competitioni, j, t 1 + εi, j, t i, j, t 1 Distance to the frontier = Korea's exports to output ratio / each one of the BICs export to output ratios at the ISIC Rev. 2 3 digit disaggregation Competition = ( ) natural logarithm of the tarifs at the industry level multiplied Interactive term = Distance to the frontier x Competition GMM: System Generalized Method of Momentums using the Arellano Bond Methodology. Avoided the excessive use of lagged instruments that diminishes efficiency in the estimates.

38 6.1 Results: A negative sign in the interactive term Dependent Variable: Natural Log of Value Added per Worker Fixed Effects GMM Distance to the Frontier (lagged) *** *** Competition (lagged) *** *** Distance to the Frontier * Competition *** *** constant *** *** Observations = Groups = Observations per group minimum = 6 6 average = maximum = F_test that all ui=0 F(70,1211) = Prob>F = Number of instruments - 78 Source: Authors estimates

39 62Simulation 6.2 of Results 30 Time dimensioni 25 Present Past Value Added per Worker (USD / L) Brazil India China Distance to the Frontier Low Competition High Competition Increasing Competition Source: Authors representation

40 Conclusions Different experiences in catching up Competition is a plus for innovation, but Distance matters Role of distance shortening measures, importance of outward orientation and sequencing Replicability?