Partners Wealth Group

Transcription

1 Partners Wealth Group Australia in 2050: Life, Work, Relationships and Retirement Bernard Salt 5 June 2014

2 Disclaimer These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.

3 We are an urban people with city-based jobs and interests Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2013 DARWIN BRISBANE PERTH SYDNEY CANBERRA Winners 2014 KPMG, an Australian partnership and Losers a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG ADELAIDE MELBOURNE HOBART

4 Strong population growth is driving household formation at a national level 500, , , ,000 pa 416,000 pa 350, , ,000 pa 250, , , ,000 50, Natural Increase NOM Net population growth for Australia between 1950 and 2023 (based on ABS 2013 projections)

5 Australia s tribal composition is shifting from an Anglo base to a fusion culture Country of Birth 2011 United Kingdom 1,101,100 New Zealand 483,400 China 319,000 India 295,400 Italy 185,400 Vietnam 185,000 Philippines 171,200 South Africa 145,700 Malaysia 116,200 Germany 108, % change 1,038,200 6% 389,500 24% 206,600 54% 147, % 199,100-7% 159,800 16% 120,500 42% 104,100 40% 92,300 26% 106,500 1% Top 10 ethnicities in Australia at the 2011 and 2006 Censuses

6 New acronyms for the new tribes of Australia PUMCINS. Professional Urban Middle Class In Nice Suburbs NETTELs Not Enough Time To Enjoy Life KIPPERS Kids In Parents Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings LOMBARDs Lots Of Money But A Real Dickhead Source: KPMG Demographics

7 It is lifestyle, resources and commuting that drives population growth 10.0 Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Perth Darwin Melbourne Brisbane Sydney Canberra Adelaide Hobart Moe-Newborough Burnie-Wynyard Parkes Ellenbrook Broome Karratha Melton Torquay Bacchus Marsh Emerald Busselton Gladstone - Tannum Sands Perth Bunbury Geraldton Highfields Yeppoon Darwin Cessnock Townsville Mackay Warragul - Drouin Port Hedland Kalgoorlie - Boulder Melbourne Albany Warwick Rockhampton Brisbane Gold Coast - Tweed Heads Sunshine Coast Cairns Bathurst Ocean Grove - Point Lonsdale Morisset - Cooranbong Sydney Ballarat Orange Bendigo Murray Bridge St Georges Basin - Sanctuary Point Drysdale - Clifton Springs Canberra - Queanbeyan Mount Isa Toowoomba Albury - Wodonga Tamworth Gympie Gisborne - Macedon Geelong Nelson Bay - Corlette Victor Harbor - Goolwa Goulburn Hervey Bay Bowral - Mittagong Newcastle - Maitland Wollongong Mildura - Wentworth Dubbo Echuca - Moama Adelaide Coffs Harbour Wagga Wagga Maryborough Ballina Port Augusta Shepparton - Mooroopna Port Macquarie Warrnambool Forster - Tuncurry Kurri Kurri - Weston Central Coast Port Lincoln Sale Muswellbrook Bundaberg Mount Gambier Armidale Griffith Batemans Bay Lithgow Hobart Alice Springs Taree Wangaratta Horsham Bairnsdale Lismore Ulladulla Port Pirie Launceston Nowra - Bomaderry Ulverstone Colac Traralgon - Morwell Devonport Singleton Whyalla Broken Hill Camden Haven Parkes Burnie - Wynyard Moe - Newborough Percentage growth in population over 12 months to June 2013 for the 100 largest significant urban areas (SUA) in Australia

8 The next decade is all about active retirement boomers will redefine the 70-something time in life : 3.4 million (19.7m to 23.1m) : 4.2 million (23.1m to 27.3m) 500, , , , ,000 Kids & teenagers Suburbia Schools Young adults Household formation Mortgage Mature adults Sandwich generation Work-life balance Active retirees Socially active Travel 250, , , ,000 50, Net change in Australian population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2013 and 10 years to 2023

9 Boomers need to plan for a very long retirement The Boomer Trajectory 92 Child Adolescence Adult Lifestyle Retired Old Child Teen Adult Old Child Adult Old Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia

10 Baby Boomers in their 50s are the first Sandwich Generation! Born Today Hierarchical Indulged their children Raised by Depression parents Sandwich generation Born Today Forgotten generation Wrong place at the wrong time No workplace guilt Angsty about Ys Born Today Special bubble-wrap Chaotic connection Entrepreneurials and dreamers Disappointed generation? Born Today Command and control Spiritual Anglo Grey nomads Want the pension

11 There has been a shift in the Australian economy away from manufacturing and towards healthcare and social assistance 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Healthcare Professionals Education & Training Mining 5 years February 2004 up 1.4m (9.4m 10.8m) 5 years February 2014 up 700k (10.8m 11.5m) 0-50, ,000 Manufacturing, Agriculture, Info Media & Telecoms Net change in total jobs in Australia over two successive five-year periods, February 2004 February 2014

12 Australia is growing jobs in caring, selling, servicing, managing and doing Change No. 1. Aged or Disabled Carer 30, General Clerk 30, Child Care Worker 21, Electrician (General) 20, Checkout Operator 20, Accounts Clerk 17, Program or Project Administrator 16, Office Manager 16, Truck Driver (General) 14, Sales Assistant (General) 14,000 Change No. 11. Teachers' Aide 13, Miner 13, Barista 13, Chef 13, Accountant (General) 13, Carpenter 11, ICT Project Manager 11, Solicitor 11, Primary School Teacher 11, Fitter (General) 10,700 Net change in employment by occupation in Australia over 5 years to 2011

13 but is contracting jobs in typing, assembling, farming, machining and filling Change No. 1. Secretary (General) -28, Corporate Services Manager -14, Product Assembler -7, Mixed Crop & Livestock Farmer -6, Shelf Filler -6, Medical Laboratory Technician -5, Office Cashier -4, Metal Engineering Process Worker -4, Real Estate Representative -3, Vineyard Worker -3,100 Change No. 11. Dairy Cattle Farmer -3, Sewing Machinist -2, Safety Inspector -2, Switchboard Operator -2, Mixed Livestock Farmer -2, Credit or Loans Officer -2, Residential Care Officer -2, Analyst Programmer -2, Integration Aide -2, Telecommunications Technician -1,900 Net change in employment by occupation in Australia over 5 years to 2011

14 New relationships will change the way we live and work PAST Male Work FUTURE Restaurant Precinct Shops 60 minutes Extended Family HOME Shops Male Work HOME Female Work School School 30 minutes Source: KPMG Demographics

15 There are triggers to financial decision-making at each stage of the lifecycle Divorce Divorce Retirement Grandchildren Power of Attorney Spiritual focus Teenagers Kids leave home Children marry Children divorce Institutional care Work peak Health scare Death of friend Death of partner Work frustration Inheritance Seachange Source: KPMG Demographics

16 Everyone needs to think differently about life s later years Portfolio Lifestyle Baby Boomers Active Retired Superannuation War babies Going Solo Educated Consumerist Work-life KIPPERS Re-partnering Succession planning 2010 s growth area Aged pension Volunteers Grey Nomads Frugals Family support Power of Attorney Independent living Devout Frail Old Age Institutionalised Acute health Aged children Source: KPMG Demographics

17 Boomers set to tip beyond work and into the lifestyle stage of the lifecycle , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Net growth in population aged 65+ over 100 years in Australia (based on 2013 projections)

18 Common themes in the corporate world and in the community Corporate 1. More for Less customers want you to deliver more and to pay you less 2. Competition from left field often associated with new technology 3. Globalisation new players discovering Australia Community 1. Celebration of the individual rights, entitlements minorities 2. Loss of faith in institutions church, unions, big business, politicians, not sure about public sector 3. Consequential rise of the need for transparency, accountability, apology and regulation Source: KPMG Demographics

19 Connect bsalt@kpmg.com.au #bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer