Electrification is challenging the European automotive market

Transcription

1 Electrification is challenging the European automotive market Dr. Thorsten Mehltretter International Conference on Circular Economy in Automotive Industry Bratislava, 06 th November 2017 Wholesale Banking

2 Due to the limited amount of chauffeurs there will never be more than 5,000 cars worldwide. Carl Benz, automotive pioneer, Image: Daimler

3 My money s on the horse the automobile is [ ] just a passing fad. Kaiser Wilhelm II, last German emperor, Image: Pferdekosmos

4 Global emission regulations force OEMs to increase fuel efficiency and to introduce alternatives to combustion engines Today Emission Standard Targets (g CO2 /km) Japan EU India USA (Car) China (Car) Source: ICCT 3

5 European CO 2 regulation creates the need for electrification In 2016, all major OEMs went below their 2015 CO 2 target Sales Weighted CO 2 Emission [g/km] on NEDC Source: preliminary data from EEA (2016) Running Order Mass [kg] g CO2 /km g CO2 /km 4

6 Electrification will be core, but other factors will also play an important role Future of Diesel Charging NO x (in million) Oil price Battery Cost Incentives Range CO Source: ING Research, PWC, Roland Berger, Morgan Stanley, Statoil, ExxonMobil, BNEF 5

7 The industry is reacting to the regulatory framework Comparison of BEV share forecast to OEM announcement Most OEMs do not plan beyond 10 years (max. 2030) A large number of EV model launches have been announced EQC EQA EQE & EQS saloons & SUVs 10 new EVs until 2022 BEV share of new sales (%) Q4 e-tron e-tron Sportback Q6 e-tron Mission E Mission E Macan e-golf facelift I.D. SUV I.D. hatch, Crozz & Buzz 80 new models across Volkswagen Group 30 Mini E 20 Countryman 10 i8 Roadster i3 & i8 upgrade 25 EV modell by Medium Scenario Source: Morgan Stanley, own research i3 range upgrade X3 i

8 While EVs are picking up speed, they face challenges too Looking at the three most mentioned barriers: (Fast) Charging Points are being built up around the world BEV cost parity will be reached depending on cost increase of ICE ~4,000 ~2,000 ~1,000 Battery Cost USD/kWh 300 US$250/kWh 200 ICE cost increase US$140/kWh 100 US$100/kWh ICE BEV 2030 Range is steadily increasing, cap at ~500km (real) range of midsized cars All Electric Range (km) Source: CharIn, Morgan Stanley, own research 7

9 The electrification is changing the powertrain production drastically Comparison of drive trains Complexity combustion vs. electic Fuel tank Air and gasoline intake systems Crankcase, crankshaft Multistage gear ~4,000 parts Power train Battery Electronic Electronic Engine Singlestage gear ~320 parts Source: PwC Analysis 8

10 Supplier product impact from BEVs and Connected Cars Supplier product impact Tech shift Power electronics Batteries Thermal/HVAC Displays, infotainment Interior electronics Electric motors Transmission Electrical Axle Connectors Autonomous sensors Battery thermal management Engine components Brakes Steering Lightweight materials Exhausts Loss of content Increased content Minimal impact Body-in-white Passive safety Lighting Exteriors Tires Seating Source: Own illustration based on Morgan Stanley, manufacturers images 9

11 Can challenges be turned into opportunities through circular economy? 2025: (Medium Scenario) 46mln EV in car park 1300 MWh batteries Lifetime: 8 years Production and usage throughout lifetime Second Life in stationary applications 3.3mln end of life 80% of batteries enter 2 nd life 42 MWh Re-/Upcycling of components and materials 11 MWh to be recycled Source: Own estimation based on Medium Scenario shown before 10

12 ING is strongly committed to Sustainability Long track record in sustainable financing First Sustainability report Creation of Groenbank Launch of Sustainability Equity Fund Start carbon offsetting Start of Sustainable Lending Team ING issues its first Green Bond First ESR policy Launch of Business Principles Partnership with UNICEF Sustainability targets Sustainability embedded in strategy and purpose Rated as the world most sustainable bank & Strategic sustainable dialogues with clients ING is classified as Industry Leader by Sustainalytics. Of a peer group of 393 publicly listed banks, ING ranks 4th on corporate sustainability and ESG performance. Sustainable financing has become increasingly visible in the markets and completes existing green financing solutions Instrument Terms & Conditions Green bond Proceeds are solely used for specific green purposes Green loan Similar framework to green bonds Sustainability related lending proposition Facility is linked to the company s Sustainalytics score ING is widely recognised for its efforts in sustainability and is a front runner in this field with recent Sustainability Coordinator roles 11