An analysis of future Urban Air Quality Compliance - Real Driving Emissions and EV Scenarios

Transcription

1 An analysis of future Urban Air Quality Compliance - Real Driving Emissions and EV Scenarios Presentation to EU Refining Forum, First Expert Meeting, 1 December 2017 Chris Boocock, Senior Analyst Aeris Europe Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 1

2 Contents Introduction Scenarios Results Future country level compliance Future city level compliance Conclusions and Closing Remarks Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 2

3 Introduction This analysis extends previous Concawe commissioned work* but now informed using actual Euro6 performance data provided by Ricardo Comprehensive study with EU-wide focus. Includes case studies for 10 European cities: Antwerp, Berlin, Bratislava, Brussels, London, Madrid, Munich, Paris, Vienna, Warsaw This presentation will present a sample of two cities (Munich and Paris). * Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 3

4 Scenarios presented Scenario 1 - Ricardo Median: Assumes the median of the Ricardo Euro6 RDE data. Scenario 2 - ZEV Scenario: all Diesel PC registered after 2020 are replaced with zero exhaust emission vehicles undertaking the same activity. Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 4

5 PM 2.5 Emissions by Scenario Germany PCD Ricardo Median and ZEV post 2020 Pre_Euro Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Euro5 Euro6 Non_Exhaust (kt) 14 Ricardo Median 14 ZEV Scenario Beyond 2020, non-exhaust emissions dominate transport PM emissions Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 6

6 NO X Emissions by Scenario Germany PCD Ricardo Median and ZEV post 2020 (kt) Pre_Euro Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Euro5 Euro6 Ricardo Median ZEV Scenario Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 8

7 Results What is the impact of these emissions on ambient air quality? Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 9

8 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) NO 2 Range of Maximum Concentration Across all Stations in EU Total number of stations for NO2 = 2392 Median Ricardo ZEV Limit Value Measuring station with highest NO2 concentration does not show any significant improvement in Zero Emission Vehicle scenario % 91% 97% 97% Percentage of stations in compliance 99% 99% 99% 99% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 10

9 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Air Quality benefit of ZEV Scenario Highest measuring stations show ~ zero response to ZEV scenario: 90 Munich - Highest AQ Station 120 Paris - Highest AQ Station To address remaining exceedances, we need to understand the source attribution at each location Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 11

10 Sample of UK DEFRA NO 2 Source Attribution for London s Hot Spots Road Census ID: Bus 9% PCD 14% NO2 = 71 µg/m3 Road Census ID: Bus 28% PCD 1% NO2 =66 µg/m3 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 12

11 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology* Paris % Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% => Traffic station => Background station 0% * Exceedance of air quality standards in urban areas EEA annually reviewed indicator Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 13 20% 10%

12 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Paris % Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 14

13 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Paris % Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Remaining hot spots will require targeted measures based on the emission source to make them compliant 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 15

14 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich % Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 16

15 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich % Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 17

16 Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich % Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m µg/m µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Remaining hot spots will require targeted measures based on the emission source to make them compliant 20% 10% 0% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 18

17 Conclusions and Closing Remarks Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 19

18 Summary Based on Ricardo s estimates for EURO 6d emission levels under RDE conditions, compliance with current air quality regulated emission limits will be largely achieved by 2025/30 For NO2, in 2020 approx. 4% of monitoring stations are assessed to be non-compliant, and by 2025 this reduces to 2%. By % of the stations remain uncompliant, in both scenarios. Diesel PM exhaust is a diminishingly small contributor to Urban Air Quality Brake & tyre wear dominates primary PM emissions from passenger cars regardless of the powertrain technology. AERIS modelling shows that by 2030 there is no difference in population exposure between the ZEV scenario and the Ricardo Median scenario. Using London as a case study, extensive modelling work by DEFRA highlights the importance of source attribution in designing effective local responses to address the remaining hotspots. Conclusion: AERIS modelling shows that, from 2020 onwards, replacing all new diesel vehicles by zero emission vehicles (tailpipe) will offer little improvement to the compliance outlook compared with the Ricardo Median Euro6d scenario Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 20

19 Back-up Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 21

20 Scenarios presented - details Ricardo Median - assumptions: a. Euro 6 Diesel PCs registered before 2015 meet the median of the Ricardo test results given in Table 1 for Euro 6b Pre-2015 i.e. an RDE of 5.41 b. Euro 6 Diesel PCs registered between 2015 and 2017 meet the median of the Ricardo test results for Euro 6b Post-2015 i.e. an RDE of 1.9 c. Euro 6 Diesel PCs registered between 2017 and 2019 meet the median of the Ricardo test results for Euro 6c i.e. an RDE of 1.21 d.euro 6 Diesel PCs registered from 2020 onwards meet the median of the Ricardo test results for Euro 6d temp but with an RDE capped 1 rather than 0.76 EV Scenario assumptions: all Diesel PC registered after 2020 are replaced with zero exhaust emission vehicles undertaking the same activity. PM non-exhaust emissions are as per Diesel PC Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 22

21 Concentration above AQLV (µg/m3) All Scenarios - example Distance to Compliance - Munich Highest AQ Station - all scenarios 50 Ricardo Median Ricardo Mean Ricardo Max Early 6d temp ZEV Compliance Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 23

22 Sources and Methods EEA Airbase for monitoring data IIASA GAINS for emissions data COPERT 4v11 for emission factors TREMOVE for vehicle stock and activity Concawe in house traffic emissions model Full details published in UAQ Study Report, March 2016: * Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 24