LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 EUROPEAN REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH INDEX

Transcription

1 LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 EUROPEAN REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH INDEX LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

2 01 METHODOLOGY RESULTS 03 THE CONSISTENT: KEY TARGET MARKETS 04 THE AFFLUENT: SOLID BUT EXPENSIVE 05 THE MOVERS: EITHER RECOVERING OR STRUCTURALLY IMPROVING 06 THE ASPIRING: ATTRACTIVE BUT FEW TRANSPARENT MARKETS LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

3 1. Methodology LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

4 LaSalle European Regional Economic Growth Index INTRODUCTION TO LASALLE E-REGI INDEX LaSalle E-REGI Index Launched in is the 18 th edition of the LaSalle E-REGI index Shows relative economic performance - compared to the European average Europe-wide coverage - 32 countries European regions - Focus on 100 cities Strong relationship with real estate - Proxy for occupier demand - Framework for investment LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

5 Components of E-REGI score E-REGI METHODOLOGY E-REGI Score 20% Wealth GDP per Capita current 60% Growth Business Environment 15% 22.5% LaSalle European Human Capital Index 2017 Service Employment: 5 year forecast: growth and absolute 3 year historic growth 20% Political Stability, Default, Regulatory and Trade Credit Risk, Inclusion in EU/EMU current 22.5% GDP: 5 year forecast: growth and absolute 3 year historic growth LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

6 Zoom on LaSalle European Human Capital Index INCLUDED IN LASALLE E-REGI INDEX SINCE 2016 THEME INDICATOR VARIABLE DATA SOURCE Skilled Workforce Education level Tertiary Education Attainment Level of population aged years Eurostat Quality of education University Ranking score Center for World University Rankings (CWUR) Creativity Patent production Number of patents filed OECD Agglomeration effect Population density Eurostat Investments R&D Investments R&D expenditure as % GDP Eurostat Tech Venture Capital Investments Venture capital investments in Tech firms Thomson Reuters LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

7 Three categories of regions in the index E-REGI METHODOLOGY All European regions (n=295) E-REGI 2017 scores 2.50 Regions with Strong Scores Regions with Medium Scores Regions with Weak Scores European average = Other Regions Cities with Strong Scores Cities with Medium Scores Cities with Weak Scores LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

8 Robust relationship between E-REGI performance & occupier demand AVERAGE CORRELATION OF 62% BETWEEN E-REGI SCORE & OFFICE TAKE-UP 0.80 Correlation between E-REGI score & office take-up in 3 following years 33 office markets % 55% 64% 67% 68% 72% 64% 65% 65% 51% 68% 53% 63% 64% 62% Correlation Average LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

9 Results LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

10 2017 Headline results Top 15 LaSalle E-REGI Paris 2. London 3. Stockholm 4. Munich 5. Luxembourg 6. Istanbul 7. Dublin 8. Madrid 9. Stuttgart 10. Oslo 11. Copenhagen-Malmö 12. Zürich 13. Lyon 14. Brussels 15. Barcelona LaSalle E-REGI London 2. Paris 3. Stockholm 4. Istanbul 5. Dublin 6. Luxembourg 7. Munich 8. Oslo 9. Stuttgart 10. Copenhagen-Malmö 11. Zürich 12. Madrid 13. Berlin 14. Brussels 15. Lyon +3 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

11 2017 Headline results score components LaSalle E-REGI London 2. Paris 3. Stockholm 4. Istanbul 5. Dublin 6. Luxembourg 7. Munich 8. Oslo 9. Stuttgart 10. Copenhagen-Malmö 11. Zürich 12. Madrid 13. Berlin 14. Brussels 15. Lyon Scores GDP Employment Human Capital Wealth Business Environment LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

12 E-REGI Scores Source: LaSalle, 2017 LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

13 Four groups of cities The Consistent The Movers Tier 1 London Paris Munich Stockholm Amsterdam Hamburg Frankfurt Brussels Madrid Milan Berlin Tier 2 Stuttgart Düsseldorf Vienna Birmingham Lyon Leipzig-Dresden Utrecht Bologna Edinburgh Cologne-Bonn Helsinki Copenhagen Glasgow Marseille-Nice Gothenburg Liverpool Lille Barcelona Dublin Manchester Bristol Rotterdam-The Hague Valencia Bilbao Seville Lisbon Rome Athens Tier 3 Cardiff Leeds Sheffield Nottingham-Derby Nantes Bordeaux Toulouse Verona-Venice Strasbourg Nuremberg Mannheim-Karlsruhe Turin Zaragoza Newcastle Thessaloniki The Affluent The Aspiring Tier 1 Warsaw Moscow Istanbul Luxembourg Zürich Prague Krakow Wroclaw Budapest Tier 2 Oslo Geneva Bratislava Ljubljana Bucharest Sofia Vilnius Tallinn Riga Izmir Ankara Tier 3 Bern Basel Antwerp Genoa Tricity Katowice Poznan LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

14 3. The Consistent: key target markets LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

15 The Consistent Most of core Europe Helsinki Glasgow Edinburgh Stockholm Gothenburg Copenhagen-Malmö Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Liverpool Birmingham London Lille Amsterdam Brussels Hamburg Utrecht Dresden- Leipzig Düsseldorf Cologne-Bonn Frankfurt Paris Stuttgart Munich Vienna Lyon Bologna Toulouse Marseille-Nice Naples LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

16 The Consistent: London & Paris neck and neck at the top this year VERY SMALL DIFFERENCE IN SCORES BETWEEN THE TWO GLOBAL CITIES 2.60 E-REGI Scores & Ranks # over time The Consistent # 1 London 2.40 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 1 # # 2 # 6 # 1 # 4 # 3 # 1 # 1 # 1 # 2 # 2 # 2 # 1 # 2 # 3 # 1 # 2 # 8 # 2 # 1 # 4 # 2 # 4 # 1 # 1 # 3 # 4 # 2 # 2 # 2 # 2 Paris LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

17 The Consistent: Stockholm & Munich have improved over the last 18Y FRANKFURT IS THE MOST STABLE! 2.00 E-REGI Scores over time The Consistent Stockholm 1.80 Munich Brussels Frankfurt Amsterdam 1.20 Hamburg LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

18 How to find attractive risk-adjusted opportunities in Consistent cities? 3 OPTIONS 1 Focus on the U (Urbanisation) of DTU+E 2 Take core+ risks in established locations 3 Invest in alternative sectors LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

19 How to select Tier-2 markets within the Consistent? WHERE TO FIND VALUE OUTSIDE TIER-1 MARKETS? Strong cities Stuttgart Lyon Helsinki Utrecht Toulouse Düsseldorf Cologne-Bonn Marseille-Nice Edinburgh Birmingham Bremen Leipzig-Dresden Bologna Weaker cities Lille Glasgow Liverpool Naples LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

20 4. The Affluent: solid but expensive LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

21 The Affluent The wealthiest cities Oslo Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Antwerp Luxembourg Basel-Mulhouse Zürich Geneva Bern Genoa LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

22 Strong performance of Swiss cities driven by wealth & human capital STRONG PERFORMING CITIES BUT WITH SMALL INVESTABLE STOCK AND ACTIVE DOMESTIC INVESTORS 2.00 E-REGI Scores over time The Affluent Luxembourg Zürich 1.40 Geneva 1.20 Basel-Mulhouse LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

23 5. The Movers: either recovering or structurally improving LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

24 The Movers Cyclical and structural Movers Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Dublin Manchester Berlin Bristol Rotterdam-The Hague Milan Bilbao Madrid Barcelona Rome Lisbon Valencia Seville Athens LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

25 The Movers: Cyclical Movers include Dublin, Milan & Spanish cities MILAN HAS ONLY PARTIALLY RECOVERED ITS PRE-GFC PERFORMANCE 2.00 E-REGI Scores over time The Cyclical Movers Dublin Madrid Barcelona 1.20 Milan LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

26 The Movers: Structural Movers are Berlin, R dam, Bristol & Manchester MANCHESTER NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY BREXIT LAST YEAR BUT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS UPWARD TREND 1.60 E-REGI Scores over time The Structural Movers Berlin 1.40 Rotterdam 1.20 Bristol 1.00 Manchester LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

27 6. The Aspiring: attractive but few transparent markets LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

28 The Aspiring Growth-driven but lack of transparency St Petersburg Tallinn Moscow Riga Vilnius Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Poznan Warsaw Wroclaw Prague Bratislava Krakow Ljubljana Budapest Bucharest Sofia Istanbul Ankara Izmir, JLL LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

29 The Aspiring Growth-driven but lack of transparency St Petersburg Tallinn Moscow Riga Vilnius Tier-1 cities Tier-2 cities Lodz Warsaw Wroclaw Prague Krakow Bratislava Ljubljana Budapest Bucharest Zagreb Sofia Istanbul Ankara Izmir, JLL LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

30 Warsaw has a stronger growth outlook but Prague is more balanced MOST ASPIRING CITIES DO NOT OFFER SUFFICIENT TRANSPARENCY / LIQUIDITY BUT OFFER DIVERSIFICATION 1.60 E-REGI Score over time The Aspiring 1.40 Warsaw 1.20 Prague LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

31 LaSalle E-REGI Index 2017 Visit the online page to download the report (available in English & in German), to access the interactive map and to watch our animation video LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

32 This document does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, and is subject to correction, completion and amendment without notice. This document has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of recipients. No legal or tax advice is provided. Recipients should independently evaluate specific investments. By accepting receipt of this publication, the recipient agrees not to distribute, offer or sell this publication or copies of it and agrees not to make use of the publication other than for its own general information purposes. The views expressed in this document represent the opinions of the persons responsible for it as at its date, and should not be construed as guarantees of performance with respect to any investment. LaSalle has taken reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in this document has been obtained from reliable sources but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of such information. LaSalle does not undertake and is under no obligation to update or keep current the information or content contained in this document for future events. LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this document. Copyright LaSalle Investment Management All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced by any means, whether graphically, electronically, mechanically or otherwise howsoever, including without limitation photocopying and recording on magnetic tape, or included in any information store and/or retrieval system without prior written permission of LaSalle Investment Management. LaSalle Investment Management is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. LaSalle Investment Management LaSalle E-REGI Index

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