NLA London s long-term Infrastructure Planning:

Transcription

1 NLA London s long-term Infrastructure Planning: 21#May#2014# # StewartMurray AssistantDirector Planning stewart.murray@london.gov.uk; Social Infrastructure

2 Social#Infrastructure:#part#of#the# growth #picture# A.1Infrastructure,compeDDvenessandgrowth A.2GovernanceofLondon sinfrastructure A.3Needforaninfrastructureplanandapproach Projected#demand#for#infrastructure#to#2030s#(FALP)#&#2050#(IIP)# B.1GrowthprojecDons B.2InfrastructureimplicaDonsandcosts(regardlessofspaDal locadonandadministradveboundaries) # Strategic#ObjecNves:# C.SustainingLondonasthebestbigcityintheworld D.SpaDaldriversandimplicaDons wherewillthegrowthgo? E.Payingforit F.Nextsteps July2014LondonInfrastructureInvestmentPlan

3 Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP) 2014 Consultation draft

4 Mayor s 2020 Vision (2013) Challenges and Opportunities: Global City remain competitive Huge growth challenges Demographic time bomb Housing crisis and homes/jobs targets up Infrastructure investment key Quality of Life vital for success Social Infrastructure critical Partnerships with: Boroughs & City of London - voluntary /community sectors - business / development sectors - Infrastructure providers - Wider South East authorities - Government and Agencies

5 PopulaNon#growth#1971#R#2036#

6 # London s#employment#growth#

7 London s#demographic#challenge# LondonpopulaDon2001(revised):7.34million LondonpopulaDon2011(Census):8.17million =83,000homespaincrease LondonPlan assumes51,000pa LondonpopulaDon2016willexceed1939peak8.7m GLAtrendprojecDon =suggests76,000pa over100,000inearlier(plan)years 2050:11.3mto13.4mpeopleinLondon?

8 Distribution of population growth

9 London#Boroughs#Housing#Targets#(FALP)#

10 London#Plan# #spanal#growth#&#infrastructure#

11 Recession#reduced#outRmigraNon:#implicaNons#for# East#&#South#East#household#growth# 80,000 70,000 Annual household growth over decade 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 DCLG,20083based DCLG,20113based Historic 10, ,to, ,to, ,to,2021

12 Current# household#demand#&#supply #in#the# Greater#South#East#(DCLG)# London# South#East# East# Supply (average compledons pa) Demandi (CLG2008hhspa) Demandii (CLG2011hhspa) 24,300 29,600 21,300 37,900 gap :_13,600 52,600 gap :_28,300 41,100 gap :_11,500 38,400 gap :_8,800 33,900 gap :_12,600 28,100 gap :_6,800

13 PopulaNon#growth#spills#out#beyond#London:# 2011#DCLG#projected#demand#in#South#East#&#East##

14 Impact#of#addiNonal#10,000#household#growth#on#top#of# exisnng#dclg#projecnon#in#south#east#&#east##

15 Planning#beyond#2030#towards#2050# FALP#to#London#Infrastructure#Investment#Plan#

16 InfrastructureisakeypillarbothforLondon s compeddvenessanditsqualityoflife.itunderpinscivic lifeandeconomicandsocialvalue. Infrastructure+that+made+London+great + infrastructure+can+contribute+to+making+ London+great+ Frank Pick s expansion ofthe tube Bazalgede s Londonsewer Infrastructure#is#a#key#component# among#the#12#pillars#of# compennveness#of#the#world# Economic#Forum:# # 1. InsDtuDons 2. Infrastructure# 3. Macroeconomicenvironment 4. Health#and#primary#educaNon# 5. Higher#educaNon#and#training# 6. Goodsmarketefficiency 7. Labourmarketefficiency 8. Financialmarketdevelopment 9. Technologicalreadiness 10. Marketsize 11. InnovaDon 12. BusinesssophisDcaDon

17 While#London#remains#a#globally#compeNNve# world#city # Its#infrastructure#is#not#best#in#class,#at#least#in#terms#of#percepNon# Competitiveness New$York 1 London 2 Singapore 3 Hong$Kong 4 Tokyo Competitiveness 5 Sydney London 6 1 Paris New)York7 2 Stockholm Singapore 8 3 Chicago Chicago 9 4 Toronto Paris 10 5 Source: Amsterdam 6 Economist Toronto 7 Intelligence San)Francisco 8 Unit2013 Berlin 9 Stockholm 10 Source:IBM2013 The+World+Economic+Forum,+ Execu?ve+Opinion+Survey+(2013)+ finds+the+uk+on+the+28 th +posi?on+in+ terms+of+quality+of+infrastructure+ compared+to+other+countries.+in+its+ own+rankings,+the+wef+places+the+ UK+on+the+8 th +posi?on.+ Transportation-and- Infrastructure Singapore 1 Seoul- 2 Toronto 3 Tokyo 4 Hong-Kong 5 Stockholm 6 New-York 7 London 8 Paris 9 Berlin 10 Source:PwC2012 GreenICityIIndex Copenhagen 1 Stockholm 2 Oslo 3 Vienna 4 Amsterdam 5 Zurich 6 Helsinki 7 Berlin 8 Brussels 9 Paris 10 London 11 Madrid 12 Vilnius 13 Rome 14 Riga 15 Source:Economist IntelligenceUnit2012 UK+scores+62 nd +out+of+ 185+countries+in+the+ ease+of+securing+ electricity+connec?ons+ (World+Bank+2012)+

18 London#will#soon#exceed#its#1939#populaNon#peak#and# we#anncipate#growth#of#varying#degrees## ,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 Central(projec-on(of(11.3(million(inhabitants(by( 2050( ( These(projec-ons(are(based(on(annual( employment(growth(assump-ons(of(3%((high),(( 2.5%(((central),((2%((low)( ( Overall(an(increase(of(37%((from(2011(to(2050( ( Consistent(with(London(Plan( Within+a+year+we+ expect+to+surpass+ London's popula?on+peak+of+ 8.6+million++ High## 13.4#million# Central## 11.3#million# Low## 9.5#million# 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source:GLAIntelligenceUnit 18

19 London s#central#growth#projecnon# Requires#significant#investment#to#provide#the#supporNng#infrastructure#required# Transport Homes Demand#(backlog#+#assumed#growth)# IncludesenhancementssuchasCrossrail2and3,roads, London sshareofhs2,estuaryairport,orbital,radiallinks; includesrenewals 49,000homesayearunDl2036and42,000thereagerwhich 52%assumedintermediateandsocialand48%private sector(renewalsassumedat1.5%,oneoffofexisdngstock) Costs# #billion# (capex)# Total#1,163# # 467# 40# 420# 36# Energy Assumes50%decentralisedenergyassimilaDonto # 15# Water Schools IncludesThamesTidewayTunnel,smartmeters,flood defence,noreservoirfortheanalysedperiod 485newprimaryschooland157secondaryschools (assumesbacklog) 50# 4# 30 3 Green Floodriskmanagement,greennetworkforcycling,walking 20# 2# %#of#total# costs# Waste DemandinwasteconsideredrelaDvelyconstant(dueto gradualtransidontocirculareconomy) 5# <1# Broadband Extensionofbroadbandinfrastructure 0.5# <1# 19

20 SPATIAL#DRIVERS#AND#IMPLICATIONS:#WHERE#WILL#THE#GROWTH# GO?# London(&widersoutheast)couldaccommodatecapital sgrowthin Analysing+the+different+scenarios:+ differentways Accommoda?ng+growth+outside+London?+ New+ runway?+ Accommoda?ng+ growth+within+ London s+borders+ New+runway?+ New+ hub+ airport?+ + London s#projected# growth#will#impact# beyond#london s# boundary,#both#in# terms#of#economic# growth#and#where# people#will#live#and# travel#between.# # Coordinated# NaNonal,#Regional# and#london#planning# required#to#plan#for# growth.### # The#LEPs#will#play#an# instrumental#role#in# suppornng#that# coordinanon#

21 Investment#requires#doubling#expenditure#to#meet#all#London s# growing#needs,#mainly#driven#by#housing#and#transport## Overallcapitalexpenditure ConstrucDonsectorinflaDonunDl2050(c.2%);GVAgrowthof3.5%(real) Transport Housing Energy Water Schools Waste Green Infrastructure Broadband 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 21

22 Next#steps:#following#publicaNon#of#GLA#Infrastructure# Investment# Progress#Report # Analysis# A. IniDalstageofassessingLondon sinfrastructureneedsisnow complete B. Weareintheprocessoffinalisingcostsandunderstandingthe potendalfundinggap C. WillthenlookatprioriDsing/savings/efficiencies/newfunding sources ConsultaNon#and#reporNng# A. On_goinginformalconsultaDonwithkeystakeholders B. ConsultaDonreport July2014 C. Finalreport endof

23 FALP:#Social#Infrastructure# Flexibility#toenablesocialinfrastructureproviderstoensureconDnued delivery(e.g.educadonandhealth) Updates#methodology#forconducDngsocialinfrastructureneeds assessments EducaNon _highlightstheshortageofschoolplaces _supportforfreeschools _supportco_locadonofschoolandresidendaldevelopment

24 FALP:#Social#Infrastructure# Clarifiesnewroleofpublichealthinboroughsandlinkstoplanning(JSWBs andjsnas) ClarifiesnewcommissioningarrangementsforHealth Sports_Underscoresplayingpitchstrategies

25 Social#Infrastructure#SPG## (Supplementary#Planning#Guidance)# MethodologyforBoroughstoproduceSocial#Infrastructure#Studies# Focuson:socialinfrastructurethatfacethebiggeststrategicchallenges: o health, o educadon o sport o faith o burials

26 #Case#Study#1:#Olympic#Legacy# Mayor saim:use2012gamestotransform eastlondonandrebalancegrowthandwealth inthecapital SPGOlympicLegacySPGwith4HostBoroughs IdenDfiedscaleofchangeandinfrastructure thatcouldbedeliveredinandaroundthe OlympicPark PotenDal32,000newhomes 1.3msq.m.ofnewcommercialfloorspace Analysis#of#social#and#other#infrastructure:# place#making#

27 Schools,#higher#educaNon# (UCL),#health#faciliNes,# libraries,#faith#and# community#facilines# CreaDngthe place forgrowing families,newpopuladonsand householdswishingtoestablishlong termrootsintheemerging neighbourhoods.

28 Homes#and#jobs#targets#

29 IdenDfiedandquanDfied strategicinfrastructureneeds andcosts IdenDfiedfunding opportunidesaswellas deliveryandgovernance mechanisms IdenNfied#sites#for#key#social# infrastructure# focused aroundareasmostsuitablefor newfamilyhousing Infrastructure#Delivery#

30 Infrastructure#Costs# #e.g.#3#libraries# 5.4m#

31 (VNEB)#

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36 Vauxhall Nine Elms Battersea Opportunity Area: 16K homes, 25K new jobs

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39 # # Case#Study#3:##White#City# Opportunity#Area # # Opportunity#Area#Planning# Framework#(OAPF)# Strong#Infrastructure#Planning# Partnership#with:# LBHammersmith&Fulham GLA TfL Keylandownersand developersincluding: _Westield _ImperialCollege _BerkeleyGroup(M&S) _BBC&Stanhope

40 White#City# OA # # Opportunity#Area#Planning# Framework#(OAPF)# London#Plan#Targets:# 6,000newhomes 10,000newjobs 110hectaresbrownfield OAPF#Process:# InfrastructureMasterPlan DIFStudy WestieldRetailExpansion ImperialCollegeWestHigher EducaDon&ResearchCampus BBCMediaCentre Newhomes&studenthousing SocialInfrastructuretosupport changinggrowingcommunity

41 Imperial#College#West#(White#City)# student#housing#and#college#building#

42 Imperial#College#West# Life#Science#&#Research#Cluster#

43 Next#Steps:#how#to#fund#it#