OECD - World Bank Conference. The Case of Korea. November 18-19, Joonghae Suh. ( )

Transcription

1 OECD - World Bank Conference on Innovation and Sustainable Growth in a Globalised World Innovation and Growth: The Case of Korea November 18-19, 28 Joonghae Suh ( suh@kdi.re.kr )

2 Model la-51 (1959)

3 The First B/W TV-set (1966)

4 Technology-driven & market-pull growth - Display Industry - Marke t size (m. USD) 4 Digital Broadcasting 3 Mobile Telephony TFT STN OELD small TFT PDP LCOS Mobile Monitor 2 Personal Computer CDT STN FED DVT Color TV PRT PDP LCOS TV 1 Mono CRT CPT FED

5 Source of Growth major role of TFP Semiconductor IT parts Display Electronic parts Comm. Equip. Computer Office equip. Electronic home appl. Labor Capital TFP IT home appl. Manufac. total Growth accounting, firm-level data from

6 Accumulation cum assimilation (in the spirit of Pack and Nelson, 1999) 5 growth rate in 3-year moving average, % year Royalty payment Capital goods imports (Howard Pack and Richard Nelson, The Asian miracle and modern growth theory, Economic Journal, 1999.)

7 Channels of Technology Transfer to Korea, (US$ billion) Total FDI Sum of foreign licensing and capital goods imports Foreign licensing Capital goods imports ,

8 The interplay of foreign technologies and indigenous R&D BE ERD/Sales, % Royalty payment/berd, %

9 Trend of Korea s R&D Investment private share, % GERD/GDP, % (right axis) government share, %

10 Evolution of Korea s Innovation System 196s 197s 198s 199s 2s Factor-Driven Stage Development Stage Investment-Driven t Di Stage Sources of Competition cheap labor manufacturing capability Innovation-Driven Stage innovative capability Major Direction of Industrial Policy Expand exportorient light industries Expand heavy and chemical industries Expand technology-intensive industries Promote high-technology innovation Transition to knowledge-based economy S&T Role of Government Scientific Institution Building - MOST/KIST - S&T promotion act - 5-year economic plan includes S&T Scientific Infrastructure Setting -GRI -Daeduck sci. town -R&D promotion act -KSIST:highly qualified personnel R&D and Private Research Lab Promotion -NRDP - Promoting private research labs - Promotion of industrial R&D Leading Role in Strategic Area - HAN - Enhancing univ. reseach capability - Promoting co-op research - Policy coordination - GRI restructuring <New Challenges> Innovative Capability of Private Sector

11 Trend of Korea s R&D Investment Market competition is the prime driver for innovation Korean firms should compete in the world markets Human resource is the key for learning The interaction between education and innovation systems Government s role as facilitator at earlier stages Government s active role earlier years; business took the lead later Catch-up: assimilating foreign tech w/ indigenous efforts The Effective use of technologies both domestic and abroad

12 Education and HRD System Educational Expansion in Korea Gross Enrollment Rates (24) Pi Primary school Middle school High school University

13 Lessons Managing the Economy for Industrialization Market intervention ti but promoting entrepreneurship Maintaining fiscal soundness: Instrumental for reforms Long-term perspective with gradualism and pragmatism Political leadership: Shared vision for nation-building Education and Human Resource Development Sequential educational expansion Shifting investment emphasis from primary, secondary to tertiary Mobilizing private sectors to fund education Investment in HRD pays off over the long run

14 Lessons R&D and Innovation System Market competition is the prime driver for innovation Human resource is the key for learning Government s role as facilitator at earlier stages Catch-up: assimilating foreign tech w/ indigenous efforts Building Information Infrastructures Stepwise planning with strategic t investment t The case of informatization promotion fund Government-business partnership is the key for success The case of CDMA: Risk-sharing enables leapfrogging

15 Korea in the 21 st century The end of high-input, high growth regime; There exists sizable gap in productivity GDP per hour worked Norway 6 12 Belgium Greece France (5) Netherlands OECDAustralia Spain Ireland Germany Italy Austria Euro-zone (4) Denmark Sweden United Kingdom EU19 (3) Finland Switzerland Canada Japan Iceland United States Slovak Republic Poland New Zealand Portugal Hungary Czech Republic Korea 1991~ 21~1 211~2 22~3 2 Turkey (2) Mexico potential growth rates TFPG GDP per capita

16 (%) Gross Fixed Capital Formation over GDP (24~6 average, %) CHINA INDIA KOREA SPAIN ICELAND AU STRALIA SLOVAKIA I RELAND CZECH NEW ZEALAND PO JAPAN GREECE HUNGARY RTUGAL OECD AVG SWITZERLAND CANADA ITALY AUSTRIA DENMARK B ELGIUM FRANCE M EXICO LUXEM BOURG TURKEY NETHERLANDS FINLAND POLAND NORWAY RUSSIAN GERMANY UK SWEDEN BRAZIL US

17 R&D/Physical Investment (%) KOR FIN USA JAP GER FRA UK NED ITA ESP POR MEX

18 Are we living in a different world? Technical change is skill-biased also in Korea Higher education does not offer high returns. 25 % 1.8 % light industries metals electronics chemicals machinery automobile light industries metals electronics chemicals machinery automobile Employment share of university graduates Relative Wage univ. graduate / high-school graduate

19 Changes in Employment Structure Sales (trillion W. in current prices) Total employment ( ) Overseas Domestic Member of labor union (8%) (5%) (3%)

20 Globalization US Japan 25, 5, 199 2, 24 4, FDI(mil USD) U 15, 1, FDI(mil US SD) 3, 2, , , 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2, Nominal gross fixed investment(bil USD) 1, , 1,2 1,4 1,6 Nominal gross fixed investment(bil USD) Korea Taiwan FD DI(mil USD) 5 5, 4, 3, 2, FD DI(mil USD) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, , , 1, Nominal gross fixed investment(bil USD) Nominal gross fixed investment(bil USD)

21 Challenge 1: Accumulation Gap Despite, still relatively, high investment Sizable gap in capital stock, (which explains PRD gap) Let market work, with better RF. - Equity investment t ceiling - Separation of financial & industrial capital - Regulation on investment in Seoul metropolitan areas - Privatization of SOE [Capital-labor ratio] (USA = 1) FIN NOR DNK BEL SWE FRA USA NLD ITA AUS CAN KOR Source: OECD STAN DB

22 Challenge 2: Quality Gap in HR and Education Over-educated Korean? Despite high investment, the return seems low more competition in education IMD ranking of 6 nations Finland USA Australi a Korea Japan India Malaysi a Education system meets the needs of a competitive economy University education meets the needs of a competitive economy

23 Challenge 3: Innovation System R&D activities become comparable to peers But highly concentrated on large firms Strengthening LE-SME ties Samsung E LG E Hy nix Hy undai E Daewoo E LGPhilips Hyundai M J C S P H E D E N L K R FI U L OEC D D K F R A T B E G B N O C A IS A U N Z IE IT E H C S U S U Z PT G R SK T R PL M X

24 Challenge 4: ICT Dilemma Divergence between ICT and non-ict, LE and SME, exporting and domestic oriented Employment effect is low, will be lowered Trust in internet world IC T In d u stry 's S h a re G DP and Em ploym ent Structure of ICT Industries 16 1% share of G DP 8% share of Em ploym ent 6% 4% 2% Software Service Equipment % Korea US

25 Challenge 5: Governance Gap Rigidity of Employment Annual Work Loss (days per 1 workers) ,3 3,8 3 1,4 2,7 SG US IR KR NL DE Source: World Bank SG DE NL IR KR Source: ILO 75 7,5 Corporate Governance 6,7 6, 5,8 5,7 9,4 Transparency Index 89 8,9 7,5 7,5 4,3 SG HK ML KR TW SG NL IR US KR Source: Asian Corporate Governance Association Source: Transparency International

26 Summary Korea : mixture of frontier and catch-up No single recipe. It is like an orchestra: more than simple sum of individual players, conductor s role. Functioning institutions are fundamental to sustain economic growth. Korea s experiences can be seen as the evolutionary processes of systems/institutions. tit ti Building effective institutions is very important, sometimes painful, national agenda. National implies partnership between government and business (market) As new challenges are coming, so the needs to reform/restructure existing systems/institutions.

27 End of Presentation Nothing is ready-made; everything is to be made. (Hilary Putnam s foreword to Nelson Goodman, Fact, Fiction and Forecast, 4th ed., 1983)