Planning Through Peaks and Valleys

Transcription

1 Planning Through Peaks and Valleys Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago-Detroit Automotive Symposium Detroit, Michigan June 1, 2018 Mike Jackson Executive Director, Strategy and Research Original Equipment Suppliers Association

2 Championing the business interests of the automotive OE supplier community: Founded in 1998, the Original Equipment Suppliers Association (OESA), serves as the voice of the automotive supplier and a valuable resource for member organizations. Throughout the supply chain and on legislative and regulatory issues, OESA represents the collective voice of suppliers. Exclusively for automotive suppliers: Supplier membership is exclusive to original equipment automotive suppliers that directly provide components, tools, materials and services to the OE light vehicle industry. Strength in numbers: Membership is comprised of approximately 375 Tier 1,2, and 3 automotive suppliers with North American OE sales that range from $10 million to $5+ billion. Affiliate members support the supplier community with thought leadership, industry analysis and other key information. Led By supplier industry executives: OESA s interests are guided by a board of directors consisting of CEOs from member companies of all sizes. Staff that works for members: Members enjoy direct access to a staff of dedicated association employees in Detroit and Washington, D.C. 2

3 Global Vehicle Sales Outlook By Region ( ) Source: LMC Automotive

4 Global Vehicle Production Output By Region ( )

5 US: Economic Outlook Strong fundamentals remain with low unemployment, firm and steady job creation, strong consumer spending and low interest rates Job growth has continued, lifting participation rates yet an even tighter outlook is expected by late 2018 / mid 2019 Source: wsj.com May 2018 monthly economist survey 5

6 UUS: Economic Outlook S Despite higher price volatility, fracking has altered the global energy landscape, holding a constrained pricing outlook US: Economic Outlook Greater pricing power has fueled activity for smaller, more affordable homes, pushing builds toward a 1.5M/year pace. Tights supplies & stock market gains have lifted home values Source: wsj.com May 2018 monthly economist survey 6

7 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Trump Policy Implications: Market Reaction Stocks and treasuries have soared, dollar lower higher growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates 1.50 Equities/Treasuries (indexed to Nov 8) 3.60 Exchange Rates (Per US$, indexed to Nov 8) Election Day Election Day S&P 500 DJIA Yr Treasury 2 Yr Treasury (Lt. Axis) Euro Yen Canada Mexico China 7

8 US: Wage Growth Obstacles Participation remains low since Great Recession even as unemployment rates reach pre-recession lows Labor Force Participation Rate % Unemployment Rate % by Education Level No High School Diploma Some College HS Graduate College Graduate 58 0 Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 8

9 US: Job Market 6.6 million openings; Quits rising too workers gaining confidence Openings: Jobs Open Per 100 Employed (3m average) Job opportunities strong openings at an all time high well above pre-recession levels Quits: Jobs Quit Per 100 Employed (3m average) Quits continue to rise, although they remain relatively low. Higher worker confidence will force business to raise wages to reduce turnover Total Non-Farm Manufacturing Total Non-Farm Manufacturing Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics 9

10 US: Labor Market Wages Wage growth weak since recession; FED watching closely as a potential inflation spark Average Hourly Earnings (monthly) $24 $22 $20 $18 $16 $14 Annual Change (3m average) 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% $12 $10 $8 Average Annual Wage Growth : 3.2% : 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Average Earnings $/hr - L Annual Change 3m avg - R Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Production Non-supervisory 10

11 US: Interest Rates More aggressive tightening likely; FED walking a tightrope to avoid recession Effective Federal Funds Rate (%, overnight) Key Interest Rate Forecasts (%) Federal Funds% 10-Year Treasury% 30 yr Mortgage% Source: Federal Reserve Bank Source: Federal Reserve, WSJ, Mortgage Bankers Association 11

12 US Light Vehicle Sales By Segment 2017 Divergent Trajectory Remains -10.9% +4.3% Source: M -1.8% 12

13 US Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR) Year end 2017 Boost Not repeatable U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mils.) M M

14 US: New Vehicle Financing Extended terms keeping monthly payments low, despite record financing amounts and rising interest rates Interest Rate on New Car Loan (percent) US Average Loan Length (months) Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Weighted Average Finance Rate at Finance Companies Source: Federal Reserve Bank, New Car Loans at Finance Companies 14

15 US: New Vehicle Financing Extended terms keeping monthly payments low, despite record financing amounts and rising interest rates US Average Amount Financed Auto Loan Monthly Payments $31,500 $30,500 $29,500 A 1% rise in interest rates raises monthly payments by about $14 or $950 in total FED rate increases may add around $1,500 over near-term $30,295 $550 $525 $500 $ $28,500 $27,500 $475 $26,500 $450 $25,500 $425 $24,500 $400 Source: Federal Reserve, New Car Loan at Finance Companies Source: Federal Reserve, Author s Calculations 15

16 Net Respondents Yes, in percent US: Borrowing Conditions Tightening lending standards have curbed share of subprime loan originations US Auto Loan Originations by Credit Score (Bils., 4Q Avg.) Auto Loan Availability Stronger Demand for Auto Loans Tighter Standards for Auto Loans <620 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Source: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Loan Officer Survey, 4 quarter average 16

17 Sales Success All About Mix You Can t Sell What You Don t Have

18 US: Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Forecasts vary among firms yet all reflect different rates of sales taper Annual Sales (millions) Forecast Avg 17.2M -1.8% -320K 16.8M -2.4% -420K 16.8M 0.0% -60K 16.6M 0.1% -110K History PWC-Autofacts IHS-Markit LMC Automotive Wards Auto Intelligence Source: 1Q 2018 OESA Affiliate Forecast Matrix PWC/Autofacts, IHS Markit, LMC Automotive, Wards Auto Intelligence 18

19 Millions North America Light Vehicle Sales Sales declines forecast for US, Canada and Mexico in 2018 Sales trend recovers in 2019 and retains stable demand outlook Sourcing penetration climbs as output transitions from car to truck, helped by added capacity expansion Source: Wards Auto Intelligence

20 US: Recession Probability The current U.S. economic expansion began in mid When is it most likely to end? % 7.8% 7.8% 21.6% 58.8% After % Source: WSJ Survey of Economic Forecasters 20

21 Millions North America Industry Production Cycles % -3.8M 5-42% -6.4M -19% -2.6M -10% -1.7M -48% -7.8M 7 9 6? -4.1% -725K NA Production 2 Recession Linear (NA Production) Source: Wards Auto Intelligence, IHS-Markit 21

22 Top Automotive States Midwest-MW Southeast-SE Northeast-NE Southwest-SW West-W Michigan Ohio Indiana Tennessee Kentucky Alabama Illinois North Carolina South Carolina Texas California Pennsylvania Georgia New York Wisconsin Missouri Iowa Virginia Top 20 - Supplier Employment (000s) Regional Share % 32% SE NE 8% 5% SW 6% W 49% MW Source: 2017 MEMA Economic Study 2015CY ; Share of total direct employment Michigan Ohio Indiana Kentucky Alabama Tennessee Missouri Illinois Texas Mississippi South Carolina Georgia Kansas California US Vehicle Output (Millions) CAR TRUCK Regional Share % 38% SE SW 5% 56% MW Source: LMC Automotive, OESA Analysis 22

23 North America Vehicle Production Forecast (in millions) 1Q Forecast 2Q Forecast Q Forecast 4Q Forecast Forecast 2019 Forecast Forecast Forecast Average Forecast Spread Average Source: 1Q 2018 OESA Affiliate Forecast Matrix PWC/Autofacts, IHS Markit, LMC Automotive, Wards Auto (Car/Trk Class 1-5) Last Update: 1Q

24 Significantly more optimistic Somewhat more optimistic Unchanged Somewhat more pessimistic Significantly more pessimistic Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018 OESA Supplier Barometer: 1Q 2018 Results Describe the general twelve month outlook for your business. Over the past three months, has your opinion become? Current Supplier Outlook (Share of Respondents) Supplier Barometer Index: (SBI and 6m Average) 60% Q Q % 60 Lehman Collapse 57 20% % Euro Crisis Begins Japan Tsunami/ Grexit Crisis US Fiscal Cliff SBI Score = 57; soars 11 points from Q4 level of 46 Tax Reform, a more hopeful view on NAFTA and continued Market Strength all Drive Optimism 121 responses Planning Q Through OESA Peaks AUTOMOTIVE and Valleys SUPPLIER BAROMETER 24

25 Passenger Cars: Under Pressure Steady March To Reduce US3 Car Portfolios and Utilize Global Sourcing Segment A/B Fiesta Sonic C Dart Focus Volt? Verano Cruze? D E 200 Fusion Taurus LaCrosse? Impala? CT6? 25

26 Future Launch Activity 40 Vehicles Cars Trucks D-Segment C-Segment Average Transaction Price By Segment ($) June % +39% B-Segment Thousands Utility Car % Source: IHS Markit, Kelly Blue Book 26

27 Execution Brands The Race to Fill White Space FT-AC Utility (SUBCOMPACT) Segments (SMALL) (MIDSIZE) (FULL) B + C + D + E RAV4 FT-AC Highlander C-HR UX RX 350L UX NX RX RX-L 27

28 Double Edged Sword of Strong Exports Overseas Demand Often Drives Local Sourcing Annual Production (Thousands) % (-51K) Strong Exports Global Sourcing 25% import tariff, cut to 15% by 7/ % (-55K) Luxury growth 50 0 Minority ownership cap removed XT5 / SRX X3 Grand Cherokee -45% (-41K) Source: IHS Automotive 28

29 30% 44% 35% 49% North American Vehicle Production Segment Shares Highlight Portfolio Strategy Differences Percent of NA Production 100% 90% 80% 70% SUV Truck Car 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% +14% -14% 0% General Motors Ford FCA Toyota Honda Renault/ Nissan Hyundai/ Kia Volkswagen Industry Sources: Automotive News, IHS Markit 29

30 North American Light Vehicle Output By Country and Segment Size of circle scaled to 2016 volume Source: Wards, Federal Bank of Chicago, T. Klier 12.0M 3.5M 2.4M 30

31 Research & Development Technology Investments If you had additional dollars for R&D investment, rating in terms of importance, how would you allocate it across the following technology areas? Advanced Materials Technologies (composites, lightweight materials, etc.) % 50% 100% 2018 Average Rating 2.4 Sustainable Manufacturing Technologies Powertrain Technologies (ICE Hybrid, Electric, Alternate Fuels, Fuel Cell, Transmissions) Driver Assist Technologies (park assist, crash avoidance, lane departure, etc.) Autonomous Driving Technologies (V2X) Source: 1Q 2018 Supplier Barometer 1=Highest Priority =Lowest Priority Planning Q Through OESA Peaks AUTOMOTIVE and Valleys SUPPLIER BAROMETER 31

32 Global Propulsion Design Islands Source: IHS Markit Production Forecast September

33 Global BEV Demand By Market

34 Planning Dynamics Electrification Push Drives Profound Change BMW Aims to Cut Parts Costs by $2.4 Billion in E-Car Shift September 13, Bloomberg German automaker seeks to trim component spending by 5% Suppliers to face more competition amid savings squeeze Mercedes will cut costs to fund EVs September 11, AutoNews to launch a $4.8 billion cost-cutting program 34

35 GM Future Electrification Bandwidth and Plan FLEXIBLE STRATEGY BUILD SCALE LEVERAGE CHINA 35

36 The EV Profit Challenge EV All In Clean sheet design Ground up capex New Everything Must scale to survive Low margin of error Incremental "We wanted to wait for the fifth generation (to scale) to be much more cost competitive, BMW CEO Harald Krueger Expects its EVs to be profitable by 2020 after first EV launched in ICE EV Incremental approach Incremental capex Weighs on current profits, yet can reinvest proceeds Enables transition

37 OESA Supplier Barometer: 2018 Planning Over the next 12 months, what is the likelihood that your company will make acquisitions and/or divestitures? Percent of respondents Acquisitions Overall 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25% 35% 40% $150 million or less $151-$500 million $501 million-$1 billion More than $1 billion High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Unlikely 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Divestitures Overall 4% 22% 74% $150 million or less $151-$500 million $501 million-$1 billion More than $1 billion Planning Q Through OESA Peaks AUTOMOTIVE and Valleys SUPPLIER BAROMETER High Likelihood Moderate Likelihood Unlikely Up from 2017 levels, suppliers are actively assessing acquisitions and divestitures; acquisitions from larger companies, divestitures from smaller (ref appendix) 37 37

38 Summary Market: Global opportunity, US demand slowing, divergent performance Offense: SUV growth/truck peak opportunities and risks (i.e. competition) Defense: Growing scope of passenger car dislocation, turbulence Strategy: Requires counter-cyclical innovation planning Flexibility: Liquidity is key; vital to balance Core vs Emerging Stretch: Surge in BEV opportunities, not all created equal - prioritize 38

39 Thank You! Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago- Detroit Automotive Symposium Detroit, Michigan June 1, 2018 Mike Jackson Executive Director, Strategy and Research Original Equipment Suppliers Association