MNI Dollar-Asia FX Technical Analysis Report 26 July 2018

Transcription

1 MNI Dollar-Asia FX Technical Analysis Report 26 July 2018 Kyle Shortland Contents DOLLAR-SGD: Sgd Support Key Today 2 DOLLAR-KRW: Focus Shifts To Krw DOLLAR-MYR: Bears Need Close Below Myr DOLLAR-CNH: Bears Need Close Below Cnh DOLLAR-PHP: Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA 6 DOLLAR-THB: Bears Need Close Below Thb DOLLAR-IDR: Below 21-DMA To Shift Focus Lower 8

2 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 2 DOLLAR-SGD: Sgd Support Key Today *RES 4: Sgd High July 3 *RES 3: Sgd Hourly resistance July 20 *RES 2: Sgd High July 24 *RES 1: Sgd Low July 24 now resistance *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Sgd Hourly support July 11 *SUP 2: Sgd Low July 11 *SUP 3: Sgd Daily Bull channel base off Apr 19 low *SUP 4: Sgd DMA The sell-off Wednesday leaves the pair looking offered and pressuring the Sgd support. Bears now need a close below this level to confirm focus on Sgd where the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base off Apr 19 lows is noted. Overall bears need a close below Sgd to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to Sgd where 100 & 200-DMAs are found. Bulls now need a close above Sgd to gain breathing room.

3 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 3 DOLLAR-KRW: Focus Shifts To Krw *RES 4: Krw High July 24 *RES 3: Krw High July 25 *RES 2: Krw Low July 24 now resistance *RES 1: Krw DMA *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Krw Low July 10 *SUP 2: Krw Bollinger band base *SUP 3: Krw Low June 20 *SUP 4: Krw Monthly High Feb 6 now support Failure to gain traction above the 200-WMA (Krw1128.3) has taken its toll with a sell-off and close below the 21-DMA that eases bullish pressure and shifts focus back to Krw where the 55-DMA (Krw1099.4) is found. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above Krw to ease bearish pressure and above Krw to return focus to Krw

4 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 4 DOLLAR-MYR: Bears Need Close Below Myr *RES 4: Myr Daily Bull channel top *RES 3: Myr High Nov 30 *RES 2: Myr High July 24 *RES 1: Myr Bollinger band top *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Myr DMA *SUP 2: Myr Low July 13 *SUP 3: Myr DMA *SUP 4: Myr Low June 25 The recovery from the dip back to the 200-DMA continues to result in recent fresh 2018 & 7mth highs, reconfirming bullish focus on Myr where the bull channel top is situated. Daily studies at O/B levels and the Bollinger top limiting follow through remain concerns for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Myr to gain breathing room and below Myr to hint at a test of Myr where the 100-DMA is noted.

5 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 5 DOLLAR-CNH: Bears Need Close Below Cnh *RES 4: Cnh High July 24 *RES 3: Cnh Bollinger band top *RES 2: Cnh High July 25 *RES 1: Cnh Low July 24 now resistance *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Cnh Low July 25 *SUP 2: Cnh High July 3 now support *SUP 3: Cnh DMA *SUP 4: Cnh Low July 16 The lack of topside follow through on recent fresh 2018 & 13mth highs has resulted in a sharp sell-off with focus now on Cnh Bears need a close below this level to confirm a break of the rising TL off June 14 lows and initially pressure the 21-DMA. Bears then look for a close below Cnh to shift focus back to Cnh which provided the base for the rally to 2018 highs. Bulls now need a close above Cnh to gain breathing room and retain initial focus on Cnh

6 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 6 DOLLAR-PHP: Supported Ahead Of 55-DMA *RES 4: Php High June 16 *RES 3: Php High June 26 *RES 2: Php High July 24 *RES 1: Php DMA *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Php Low July 25 *SUP 2: Php DMA *SUP 3: Php Low June 12 *SUP 4: Php Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low Follow through has been lacking on recent 2018 & 12+yr highs which is less than ideal for bulls. The dip below Php has so far lacked follow through. Bears continue to look for a close below Php to confirm traction below the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base and shift initial focus to Php where the 100-DMA is found. Bulls now look for a close above Php to reconfirm focus on retests of 2018 highs and above Php to confirm focus on the daily bull channel top coming in around Php today.

7 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 7 DOLLAR-THB: Bears Need Close Below Thb33.13 *RES 4: Thb High July *RES 3: Thb Monthly High Oct 3, 100-WMA *RES 2: Thb High July 20 *RES 1: Thb Low July 24 now resistance *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Thb Low July 11 *SUP 2: Thb Low June 27 *SUP 3: Thb Low June 21 *SUP 4: Thb DMA The failure to better recent 2018 highs resulted in a dip with the pair flirting with the 21-DMA (Thb33.23). Bears continue to look for a close below Thb33.13 to ease bullish pressure and below Thb32.93 to shift focus back to Thb where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls now look for a close above Thb33.30 to gain breathing room and above Thb33.54 to confirm initial focus on Thb where the 200-WMA is found.

8 MNI FX Technical Analysis Report Page 8 DOLLAR-IDR: Below 21-DMA To Shift Focus Lower *RES 4: Idr Monthly High July *RES 3: Idr High Sept 29 *RES 2: Idr Low Oct now resistance *RES 1: Idr High July 24 *PRICE: 2300GMT *SUP 1: Idr High July 18 now support *SUP 2: Idr DMA *SUP 3: Idr Low July 2 *SUP 4: Idr Alternating daily support/resistance Fresh 2018 & 3yr highs continue although follow through remains lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top (Idr14527). Daily studies have a little room to move before O/B becomes an issue. Initial support is noted at Idr14420 but the 21-DMA remains key. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to Idr14250 and hint at a move back to the 55-DMA (Idr14148). While the 21-DMA supports bulls focus on Idr