Analysis of future electricity prices. Nina Dupont Mikael Togeby Ea Energy Analyses
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1 Analysis of future electricity prices Nina Dupont Mikael Togeby Ea Energy Analyses
2 Content Introduction Data Descriptive presentation System price Analytical Impact by inflation, actual spot price, hydro, coal and CO 2 price Conclusion Extra CfD
3 INTRODUCTION
4 Research question How accurate are the forward prices? What can explain the forward prices? Are they biased towards higher prices than realised?
5 Two steps To hedge price for e.g. DK1 in 2016 Forward contract for system price (2016) CfD system price to DK1 (2016)
6 Data Yearly financial contracts (Nasdaq) System price and CfD s (from system price to DK1 and DK2) Price and volume per day from to Realised spot prices (Energinet.dk) Same periode as above Note that 2015 only covers until Hydro data (Nord pool) Reservoir content and inflow Weekly value 2005 to 2015
7 Financial contracts Here we focus on yearly contracts Until May 2006: Three years ahead Until February 2013 five years ahead After March 2013: 10 years ahead Other products ( cascading ): Quarterly Monthly Weekly Daily
8 Observation in data set Product (System price) ENOYR-2006 ENOYR-2007 ENOYR-2008 ENOYR-2009 ENOYR-2010 ENOYR-2011 ENOYR-2012 ENOYR-2013 ENOYR-2014 ENOYR-2015 Historical observations of trade 2005: 1 year : 2 years : 3 years : 3 years June : 3.5 years June : 4.5 years : 5 years : 5 years : 5 years : 5 years First in 2018 more than 5 years history will be available. On years history will be available.
9 Conclusion (preview) Forwards for are nearly equal (in real prices) Forwards tend to be above realised prices (20-60% 3 to 5 years before) Liquidity is very low for forward more than 2 years ahead Forward price is clearly linked to the daily spot price (or rolling average) Very little information about the expected price, e.g. in 2020 or 2025, can be derived from the forward prices
10 SYSTEM PRICE
11 System price An artificial price: The spot price for the entire Nord Pool area if there were no congestion Area definition: Nordic area Main function of system price is to act as a reference for the financial contracts
12 Annual system price [EUR/MWh] Annual system price and forwards System price Forward price (of 1st week of December 2015)
13 Closing price [EUR/MWh] Monthly closing price of the system 80 Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Trading month Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Months with no trade have been excluded.
14 Error [EUR/MWh] Weekly error in system price for closed products Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Weeks before product closing Note that for 2015 only the first 11 months of the realised price have been included (will be updated in January) Months with no trade have been excluded.
15 Average of error ( ) [%] Average of error in system price 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Weeks before product closing Note: 8 observations with 3 years (156 weeks) before closing. 4 observations with 5 years Months with no trade have been excluded. Especially relevant for products with 3 and 4 years horizon.
16 Average of absolute error ( ) [%] Average of absolute error in system price 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Weeks before product closing Months with no trade have been excluded.
17 Monthly traded volume [MW] Monthly trade volume of system price Trading month Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year
18 Traded volume [MW] Trade volumes in November
19 Traded volume [MW] Total traded volumes Traded volume Open intrest To compared with: Average consumption in Nord pool area (2014) = 45,000 MW
20 ANALYTICAL
21 Closing/spot price [EUR/MWh] Forward prices 90 Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Trading month Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Monthly values
22 Closing/spot price [EUR2015/MWh] Real (2015) forward prices Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Trading month Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Deflator: Energistyrelsen Samfundsøkonomiske forudsætninger (2014)
23 Closing/spot price [EUR/MWh] Real (2015) forward prices compared to spot price Trading month Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Spot price* Rolling average spot price* * Spot and rolling average of spot price are nominal prices Deflator: Energistyrelsen Samfundsøkonomiske forudsætninger (2014)
24 Closing/spot price [EUR/MWh] Reversed reservoir value [%] Real (2015) forward prices compared to spot price and hydro reservoirs % Delivery year Delivery year % Delivery year Delivery year % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year % Delivery year Delivery year % Delivery year Spot price* Rolling average spot price* Trading month Reversed hydro * Spot and rolling average of spot price are nominal prices Deflator: Energistyrelsen Samfundsøkonomiske forudsætninger (2014)
25 Reversed hydro reservoir 0% Minimum and maximum values are for the period Values are for Norway, Sweden and Finland 100%
26 Closing price [EUR/MWh] Correlation spot price 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 y = 0,3277x + 27,494 R² = 0, ,00 0,00 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 120,00 140,00 160,00 Spot price [EUR/MWh]
27 Closing price [EUR/MWh] Correlation 12 months rolling average spot price 80,00 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 y = 0,4665x + 22,552 R² = 0, ,00 0,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 Average rolling spot price [EUR/MWh]
28 Closing price [EUR/MWh] Correlation reversed hydro fill 70,00 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 20,00 y = 0,7131x + 39,383 R² = 0, ,00 0,00 0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00 Reversed hydro filling
29 Closing price [EUR/MWh] Correlation Coal and CO2 price 60,00 50,00 40,00 30,00 y = 0,4787x + 20,343 R² = 0, ,00 10,00 0,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 70,00 Coal + CO 2 price per MWh [EUR/MWh]
30 CONCLUSION
31 Conclusion Forwards for are nearly equal (in real prices) Forwards tend to be above realised prices (20-50% 3 to 5 years before) Insurance premium for consumers Note: Current (Dec. 2015) forward prices are likely to be below realised values (when looking more than 1-2 years ahead) Liquidity is very low for forward more than 2 years ahead Even a minor extra trade is expected to move the price Forward price is clearly linked to the daily spot price The volumes traded for CfD s are VERY small Many days and months with no trading Very little information about the expected price in e.g or 2025 can be derived from the forward prices
32 Dependencies Hydro price Coal price Spot price Forward price Carbon price
![Traded volume [MW] Far future bids Market spread More](/docs-images/92/108467248/images/33-0.jpg "years ahead Higher uncertainty Smaller market depth Bigger")
33 Traded volume [MW] Far future bids Market spread More years ahead Higher uncertainty Smaller market depth Bigger market spread Higher impact per bid
34 EXTRA
35 SYSTEM PRICE
36 Spot price [EUR/MWh] Daily system prices Daily average Daily maximum Daily minimum
37 CFD PRICE DIFFERENCE: AREA PRICE SYSTEM PRICE
38 Annual price difference with system price [EUR/MWh] Annual price difference price and forwards 15,00 10,00 5,00 0, ,00 DK_W price DK_E price Forward DK_W price (of 1st week of December 2015) Forward DK_E price (of 1st week of December 2015) -10,00
39 Closing price [EUR/MWh] Monthly closing price difference DK_W - SYS Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Trading month Months with no trade have been excluded.
40 Error [EUR/MWh] Weekly error in price difference DK_W - SYS Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Weeks before product closing Months with no trade have been excluded.
41 Average of absolute error ( ) [%] Average of absolute error in price difference Weeks before product closing DK_W DK_E Months with no trade have been excluded.
42 Monthly traded volume [MW] Monthly trade volume of price difference DK_W - SYS Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Delivery year Trading Month
43 Traded volume [MW] Traded volumes in November DK_W DK_E
44 Traded volume [MW] Total traded volumes
45 Closing/spot price price [EUR/MWh] Reversed reservoir value [%] Comparison with spot price and hydro fill % % 80% 70% 60% 40 50% % 30% 20% 10% % Trading month Annual/realized price Closing price Spot price Rolling average spot price Reversed reservoir value Reversed reservoir value = 1 (fill fill_min)/(fill_max fill_min) (min and max computed for each month)
46 Closing/spot price price Reversed reservoir value [%] Comparison with spot price and hydro fill % 80 90% 70 80% 60 70% 60% 50 50% 40 40% 30 30% 20 20% 10 10% % Trading month Annual/realized price Closing price Spot price Rolling average spot price Reversed reservoir value Reversed reservoir value = 1 (fill fill_min)/(fill_max fill_min) (min and max computed for each month)
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