PROSPECTS FOR THE ENERGY MARKET
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1 PROSPECTS FOR THE ENERGY MARKET Manoel Zaroni Torres São Paulo, March 30,
2 GDP: historical x projection 7.6% PIB Historical Histórico GDP Projeção: Projection: Pessimista (-2DP) (-2SD) Projeção: Projection: Base Base (Mediana (Medium Focus) Projeção: Projection: Otimista Optimist (+2DP) (+2SD) 5.0% 3.9% 1.8% 2.7% 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 2.7% 3.3% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 3.0% 1.7% -0.2% -2.2% -1.0% % -4.9% Source: Banco Central do Brasil 2
3 Change (%) GDP and electricity correlation 9% 7.9% 7% 5% 3% 1% 4.5% 3.1% 3.9% 4.0% 6.0% 4.8% 5.0% 2.6% 0.8% 7.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.1% 1.8% 3.7% 3.8% 2.7% -1% -0.2% 0.1% -3% -5% -1.8% -3.8% Demanda Energy Demand de Energia (YoY) Elétrica (YoY) Produto Gross Domestic Interno Bruto Product (YoY) Source: Banco Central do Brasil/ONS 3
4 Low residential growth in % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.2% 6.5% 5.9% 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 4.4% 4.8% 5.9% 6.0% 4.8% 5.9% 4.4% 5.1% 3.8% Residencial Residential Comercial Commercial 0.6% -0.5% Source: EPE 4
5 GWa Projection: demand Source: ONS/Tractebel Energia 5
6 GWavg Demand Carga Load Estimada Estimated à at época the time do A-5 of (set/11) A-5 (Sep/11) Estimada Estimated à at época the time do A-3 of (set/13) A-3 (Sep/13) E 2017E 6 Source: ONS
7 Commercial Capacity MWa Generation and transmission recurring delays Estimated PMO January Actual up to December Source: PSR - Energy Report (Jan/2016) 7
8 MWa Balance: new capacity delay (effect: commercialization coverage) , , , , , , , , , ,000 Energia Reserve de Energy Reserva Térmicas Thermals até up 400 to 400 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 400 to 400 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 200 to 200 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 150 to 150 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 100 to 100 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 50 to R$/MWh 50 R$/MWh Térmicas Inflexible inflexíveis Thermals Pequenas Small hydros Hidro Hydros Demanda TBLE Demand TBLE (Pessimista) (Pessimist) Demanda TBLE Demand TBLE Demanda TBLE Demand TBLE (Otimista) (Optimist) PMO Monthly mar/16 Operational Plan (PMO) Mar/ , Source: TBLE Studies
9 MWa Balance: new capacity delay (effect: energy pricing) , , , , , , , , , ,000 Térmicas Thermals até up 400 to 400 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 400 to 400 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 200 to 200 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 150 to 150 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 100 to 100 R$/MWh R$/MWh Térmicas Thermals até up 50 to R$/MWh 50 R$/MWh Térmicas Inflexible inflexíveis Thermals Energia Reserve de Energy Reserva Pequenas Small hydros Hidro Hydros Demanda TBLE Demand TBLE (Pessimista) (Pessimist) Demanda TBLE Demand TBLE Demanda TBLE Demand TBLE (Otimista) (Optimist) PMO Monthly mar/16 Operational Plan (PMO) Mar/ , Source: TBLE Studies
10 10 10 PLD jan/09 jul/09 jan/10 jul/10 jan/11 jul/11 jan/12 jul/12 jan/13 jul/13 jan/14 jul/14 jan/15 jul/15 jan/16 jul/16 R$/MWh Mensal MM12meses MM36meses MM60meses Source: CCEE Monthly Maverage 12months Jan/09 Jul/09 Jan/10 Jul/10 Jan/11 Jul/11 Jan/12 Jul/12 Jan/13 Jul/13 Jan/14 Jul/14 Jan/15 Jul/15 Jan/16 Jul/16 Maverage 36months Maverage 60months
11 Relevant factors that influence energy pricing Hydrology (wet or dry year) Economy recovery Distributed generation growth Delays in the schedules of generation and transmission projects Energy pricing models calibration composition (for example: risk level) 11
12 PLD (R$/MWh) Hydrological uncertainty in the energy pricing Supply 2020 (storage sensibility 25% and 35% in the SE) 25% Storage 35% Storage Inflow Energy Internal Studies 12
13 SE Market PLD [R$/MWh] Ibovespa [points/100] Annual Volatility PLD is intrinsically a business of very high volatility PLD and volatility PLD x Ibovespa Volatility 450% 400% 350% % 250% x 200% 150% /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ x 100% 50% 0% Volatility: PLD Weekly Médio Average Semanal SE PLD SE Ibovespa Weekly Average Médio Semanal Ibovespa (/100) Volatilidade SE Market PLD Anual Annual PLD SE Volatility Volatilidade Ibovespa Annual Anual Volatility ibovespa 13 Source: Bovespa/CCEE
14 CCEAR new energy: auction results AVERAGE MÉDIA SOLAR BIOMASSA EÓLICA WIND PCH SHP THERMAL TERMO HYDRO HIDRO R$/MWh Does not include Botox plants Reference: Jan/15
15 R$/MWh Average tariff of DISCOs % -17% -14% -20% +28% ACR Tariff Comparison % -8% -12% -12% +46% +37% RTE RTE Energy Tariff TE TUSD TUSD Wire Fio TUSD TUSD Charges Encargos X Wire TF Tariff % +131% +11% % +14% +11% +16% Sample: - CPFL Paulista - AMPLA - CEMIG - CEMAT - ENERSUL - AES SUL - COELBA - Bragantina - RGE - COPEL - Eletropaulo - ESCELSA - CELG - CELESC - ELEKTRO - EBE - Piratininga - CEEE - Energisa-MG - Energisa-PB - COELCE - CELPE - CEAL - Cepisa - Light - Sulgipe Source: Aneel
16 R$/MWh DISCOs tariff will remain high 350 Maior Higher TEEnergy TE Average MédiaEnergy Menor Lower TE Energy Tariff Tariff Tariff Internal Studies 16
17 MWa Regulated market (ACR) balance , ,000 40, Leilão Existing de Energy Energia Existente Auction Leilão Adjustment de Ajuste Auction Leilão Alternative de Fontes Sources Alternativas Auction Leilão New Energy de Energia Auction Nova ,000 20, , Proinfa Cotas Quotas Estruturantes Structuring Bilateral Itaipu V.Demanda 17 Source: CCEE/Aneel
18 R$/MWh Strong incentive to migration Prices x Tariffs Number of Consumers Livres Free Especiais Specials +49% 2, ,793 1, , Incentive to migration dez/15 Dec/15 Abr/2016 Apr/2016 (esperado) (expected) Tarifa DISCOs DISCOs Tariff PLD Source: Internal Studies/CCEE 18
19 Tractebel: type and level of contracts 38% 46% 47% 52% 56% 9% 6% 6% 5% 6% 53% 48% 47% 43% 38% E 2017E Distribution Companies Free Customers Client Breakdown Trading Companies Average Net Sales Price [R$/MWh]* TBLE s uncontracted energy (MW average) % 3.4% 6.3% 1, % 1, % 1, % % Free customers total sales volume for 2016 (2,126 MW average) 11.8% 9.8% 8.2% 8.2% 7.0% 7.0% 6.7% 5.3% 4.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 19 *Average Net Sales Price (without PIS/CONFINS, ICMS and R&D): base date Dec/2015
20 Conclusions The economic crisis was much more serious and long-lasting than expected and affected load growth (3 years of decline) Uncertainty surrounding the timing of resumption in demand: recovery could be rapid Low per capita consumption (North/Northeast, class B and C): indications for resumption in residential growth ENA continues to be the principal variable, principally with reservoirs still needing to recover Tractebel Energia Generating complex made up of energy sources of a complementary nature Policy of anticipated contracting Diversified client portfolio High degree of resilience in the face of unfavorable market scenarios 20
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