Lisbon, June 19, 2012

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1 COLOMBIA: STABILITY FOR FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT José Darío Uribe E. Governor Central Bank of Colombia Lisbon, June 19, 2012

2 Firstly, during the last decade d the Colombian economy seems to have entered a path of high and sustained growth, with greater resilience against adverse external shocks. Secondly, the monetary policy framework adopted since 1999 has been particularly successful in attaining the inflation targets year after year, and maintaining inflation rates low, stable and predictable, whilst allowing for a countercyclical monetary policy when facing negative external shocks. Thirdly, central bank s contribution to the safe and efficient functioning of the local payment and settlement systems has allowed for an efficient transmission of monetary policy within an operational and legal framework that supports other efforts to attain financial stability.

3 Graph 1 % of GDP 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Growth GDP Latin America and the Caribbean Colombia Average Source: DANE and IMF

4 Graph 2 Colombia 4,5% GDP Average Growth 4,3% 4,0% 35% 3,5% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,7% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 00% 0,0% Source: DANE

5 Graph 3 (US$ millions) Latin America (LATAM) USD Millions GDP 2011* Brasil Mé éxico Arge ntina Colo mbia Venez zuela Chile Perú Ecu uador Uru guay Bo olivia Source: IMF ( * projected)

6 Graph 4 GNI pe er capita, Atla as Method (cu urrent US$) Gross National Income Per-Capita Atlas Methodology (Current USD) Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income YEAR 2010 Source: Calculations by Banco de la República based on DANE statistics

7 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% Graph 5 Investment and Exports % of GDP Source: DANE Total Exports (%GDP) Investment (%GDP) Average Average

8 Graph 6 Source: IMF

9 Graph 7 7,0% Colombia GDP Average Growth 6,0% 5,9% 5,0% 5,0% 40% 4,0% 3,0% 2,6% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% Source: DANE

10 Graph 8 Source: IMF and Banco de la República

11 Graph 9 Terms of Trade (Index 1994=100) 200 (Index 1994=100) feb 80 feb 82 feb 84 feb 86 feb 88 feb 90 feb 92 feb 94 feb 96 feb 98 feb 00 feb 02 feb 04 feb 06 feb 08 feb 10 feb 12 Source: Banco de la República. Terms of Trade Average Source: Banco de la República

12 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Graph 10 Inflation rate (annual change) 22,1% 3% 5% 0% * 2014* Source: DANE ( * projected) TOTAL CPI AVERAGE 72 00

13 Graph 11 7% Inflation Expectations 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% jun-08 sep-08 dic-08 mar-09 jun-09 sep-09 dic-09 mar-10 jun-10 sep-10 dic-10 mar-11 jun-11 sep-11 dic-11 mar-12 5 years Survey 1 year Source: MEC, SEN and Banco de la República

14 Graph 12 Peso/USD Colombian exchange rate abr-07 jul-07 oct-07 ene-08 abr-08 jul-08 oct-08 ene-09 abr-09 jul-09 oct-09 ene-10 abr-10 jul-10 oct-10 ene-111 abr-111 jul-111 oct-111 ene-12 abr-12 Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República

15 Graph 13 Policy and market interest rate ene-12 abr-07 jul-07 oct-07 ene-08 abr-08 jul-08 oct-08 ene-09 abr-09 jul-09 oct-09 ene-10 abr-10 jul-10 oct-10 ene-11 abr-11 jul-11 oct-11 abr-12 Overnight Repo Policy Consumption (right side) Mortgage (right side) Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República

16 Graph 14 Gross Loan Portfolio including Leasing (annual change of weekly data) 30 ) ,68 19,71 17,66 16, Mar 09 Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Sep 11 Mar 12 Loan M/N Commercial Household Consumption Mortgage Source: Superfinanciera and Banco de la República

17 Graph 15 Composition of Colombian Exports Total exports (US$ millions) % 38% 38% 43% 56% 62% 62% 57% 43% 57% 44% 56% 43% 57% 42% 58% 50% 50% 53% 63% 47% 37% Others Mining goods 69% 31% Source: dane - dian

18 Graph 16 6% 4% Mining GDP 2011 (Sectoral distribution) 20% Coal Oil Metallic minerals Non-metallic minerals 71% Source: dane - dian

19 Graph 17 Oil production in Colombia % 2015: 1250 mbd 2018: 1450 mbd 20% % 10% Var % anual 5% % 5% 10% arriles diarios % Miles de b Producción Var % anual Source: ministerio de minas dgpm ministerio de hacienda

20 120 Graph Oil Export Volume 80 US$ / barrel Thousand barrels per day Export volume Colombian export prices Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público

21 Graph 19 Coal Production in Colombia % Millon nes de tonelad das : 128 mill ton 25% 2020: 20% 160 mill ton 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% Var % anua l 20 10% 0 15% Producción Var % anual Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público

22 Graph 20 Coal Export Volume US$ / ton Millions of tons Export volume (millions of tons) Colombian export prices Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público

23 Graph 21 Oil Export Value 100% 80% % US S$ Millions % 20% 0% Annual grow wth % 0 40% Export value (US$ millions) Annual growth Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público

24 Graph 22 Coal Export Value % % millions US$ % 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% Annual gr owth % 0 30% Export value (US$ millions) Annual growth Source: Ministerio de Minas, DGPM Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público

25 Graph 23 (US$ m) Financial account Source: BANCO DE LA REPUBLICA

26 Graph 24 Direct Investment (Million dollars) Colombian investment abroad Foreing investment in Colombia Source: BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA

27 Graph 25 Fiscal revenues resulting from the energy sector (% of GDP) CNG Revenues** Royalties CNG Revenues** + Royalties Source: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Estimates: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Projected.

28 Graph 26 Expected savings from energy related revenues by the central Government and territorial entities CNG Revenues** Royalties CNG Revenues** + Royalties Fuente: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Cálculos: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Cifras proyectadas. Source: Ecopetrol, Ministerio de Minas y DNP. Estimates: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público.*Projected.

29 Graph 27 Central Government Debt (% of GDP) 49,0 45,0 41,0 37,0 45,9 45,6 41,7 40,8 38,3 38,7 36,2 36,8 37,9 37,6 37,5 35,8 34,7 33,0 29,0 25,0 27,9 26,7 21, Source: dgpm ministerio de hacienda y crédito publico

30 2,0 1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 Graph 28 Primary balance of the central government (% GDP) 1,1 1,4 0,7 0,6 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,1 0,0 0,7 0,5 0,3 0,6 0,8 1,5 1,1 1,4 1,4 1,5 1,0 2,0 2,0 1,6 2,9 2, Source: DGPM-Ministerio de Hacienda y Crédito Público. Excludes the costs of financial restructuring and weather emergency.

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018

Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies