Financial assets. The need to raise money vertebrates economies
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- Noreen Little
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1 1 8 March 2016
2 2 8 March 2016
3 Financial assets The need to raise money vertebrates economies Financial asset = promise of payment in the future in exchange for receiving money now Function: way of saving / getting purchasing power Properties: maturity / risk / liquidity / return Types: tradable (securities) / non-tradable Securitization Trade-offs between properties 3 8 March 2016
4 Vulnerability of the financial sector 4 8 March 2016
5 Financial sector instability/fragility /1 Reckless and/or excessive lending by banks? Possibility of bank runs Stability relies on the belief that the sector is stable Shadow banking sector that sidesteps regulations Speculation contributes to magnify outcomes and create bubbles (Ponzi schemes) Abuse of leverage? 5 8 March 2016
6 Financial sector instability/fragility /2 Financial activities increase interdependence long chains of connections Contagion effects Myopic decisions ignorance of systemic risks (belief that what holds locally, holds globally) Emergent properties larger scale, new banking and/or derivatives risks (banks too big to fail) Minsky s instability hypothesis overoptimism 6 8 March 2016
7 NASDAQ (5 Feb Feb 2016) /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ March /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/2009 last: 4, /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/ /02/2016
8 Dow Jones (1 Oct Feb 2016) /12/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /03/ /05/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /02/ /04/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /11/ /01/ /03/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /02/ March
9 Dow Jones (1 Oct Dec 1953) 01/10/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ March 2016
10 19000 Dow Jones (2 Jan Feb 2016) /05/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /02/ /05/ /07/ /09/ /11/ /01/ /04/ /06/ /08/ /11/ March /01/ /03/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /07/ /10/ /12/ /02/
11 26/01/ /06/1999 Dow Jones (4 Jan Feb 2016) 09/11/ /04/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /10/ /03/ March /08/ /01/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /02/
12 IBEX-35 (5 Jan Mar 2016) last: 8,611 05/01/ /07/ /02/ /08/ /03/ /10/ /04/ /11/ /05/ /12/ /06/ /01/ /08/ /02/ /09/ /03/ /10/ /04/ /11/ /06/ /12/ /07/ /01/ /08/ /02/ /09/ /04/ /10/ /05/ /11/ /06/ /12/ /07/ /01/ /08/ /03/ /09/ /04/ /10/ /05/ /11/ /06/ /01/ /07/ /02/ /08/ /03/ /09/ /04/ /11/ /05/ /12/ /06/ /01/ March 2016
13 IBEX-35 (daily, 5 January February 2015) Last: 11,152 05/01/ /06/ /11/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ /05/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /10/ /03/ /08/ /01/ /06/ /11/ /04/ /09/ /02/ /07/ /12/ March 2016
14 Robert Menschel (2002): Markets, Mobs, and Mayhem. A Modern Look at the Madness of Crowds, p March 2016
15 900 LOANS (TOTAL) LENDING FOR HOUSE PURCHASE Spain (outstanding amount at the end of the period, EUR billions) CREDIT FOR CONSUMPTION SPAIN Nominal GDP trillion (2012) Mar 2003Jun 2003Sep 2003Dec 2004Mar 2004Jun 2004Sep 2004Dec 2005Mar 2005Jun 2005Sep 2005Dec 2006Mar 2006Jun 2006Sep 2006Dec 2007Mar 2007Jun 2007Sep 2007Dec 2008Mar 2008Jun 2008Sep 2008Dec 2009Mar 2009Jun 2009Sep 2009Dec 2010Mar 2010Jun 2010Sep 2010Dec 2011Mar 2011Jun 2011Sep 2011Dec 2012Mar 2012Jun 2012Sep 2012Dec 2013Mar 2013Jun 2013Sep 2013Dec 15 8 March
16 Eurozone (outstanding amount at the end of the period, EUR trillions) EUROZONE Nominal GDP 9.5 trillion (2012) LOANS (TOTAL) LENDING FOR HOUSE PURCHASE EUROPEAN UNION Nominal GDP 12.9 trillion (2012) Largest economy of the world CREDIT FOR CONSUMPTION 1997Dec 1998Apr 1998Aug 1998Dec 1999Apr 1999Aug 1999Dec 2000Apr 2000Aug 2000Dec 2001Apr 2001Aug 2001Dec 2002Apr 2002Aug 2002Dec 2003Apr 2003Aug 2003Dec 2004Apr 2004Aug 2004Dec 2005Apr 2005Aug 2005Dec 2006Apr 2006Aug 2006Dec 2007Apr 2007Aug 2007Dec 2008Apr 2008Aug 2008Dec 2009Apr 2009Aug 2009Dec 2010Apr 2010Aug 2010Dec 2011Apr 2011Aug 2011Dec 2012Apr 2012Aug 2012Dec 2013Apr 2013Aug 2013Dec 16 8 March ,5 5,25 5 4,75 4,5 4,25 4 3,75 3,5 3,25 3 2,75 2,5 2,25 2 1,75 1,5 1,25 1 0,75 0,5 0,25 0
17 LENDING FOR HOUSE PURCHASE Spain (annual change, %) browse.do?node= LOANS (TOTAL) -5 CREDIT FOR CONSUMPTION Mar 2004Jun 2004Sep 2004Dec 2005Mar 2005Jun 2005Sep 2005Dec 2006Mar 2006Jun 2006Sep 2006Dec 2007Mar 2007Jun 2007Sep 2007Dec 2008Mar 2008Jun 2008Sep 2008Dec 2009Mar 2009Jun 2009Sep 2009Dec 2010Mar 2010Jun 2010Sep 2010Dec 2011Mar 2011Jun 2011Sep 2011Dec 2012Mar 2012Jun 2012Sep 2012Dec 2013Mar 2013Jun 2013Sep 2013Dec 17 8 March
18 LENDING FOR HOUSE PURCHASE LOANS (TOTAL) Eurozone (annual change, %) browse.do?node= CREDIT FOR CONSUMPTION 1998Dec 1999Apr 1999Aug 1999Dec 2000Apr 2000Aug 2000Dec 2001Apr 2001Aug 2001Dec 2002Apr 2002Aug 2002Dec 2003Apr 2003Aug 2003Dec 2004Apr 2004Aug 2004Dec 2005Apr 2005Aug 2005Dec 2006Apr 2006Aug 2006Dec 2007Apr 2007Aug 2007Dec 2008Apr 2008Aug 2008Dec 2009Apr 2009Aug 2009Dec 2010Apr 2010Aug 2010Dec 2011Apr 2011Aug 2011Dec 2012Apr 2012Aug 2012Dec 2013Apr 2013Aug 2013Dec 18 8 March
19 Spain (EUR billions amounts at the end of the period) browse.do?node= LOANS TO GOVERNMENT /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ March 2016
20 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,05 1 0,95 0,9 0,85 0,8 0,75 0,7 0,65 0,6 0,55 0,5 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,3 0,25 0,2 0,15 0,1 0,05 0 LOANS TO GOVERNMENT Eurozone (EUR trillions amounts at the end of the period) browse.do?node= /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ /01/ /05/ /09/ March 2016
21 Spain Debt to GDP (%) March 2016
22 Spain Debt to GDP ratio March 2016
23 Spain Government debt (EUR million) Spain, 2015 Q4 : 1,069,876 EUR million (98,95%) March 2016
24 Spain, public debt (millions of euros) March
25 Spain, public debt (debt-to-gdp ratio, millions of euros) debt-to-gdp ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 0% March
26 Spain, per capita public debt (euros) March
27 Allianz Global Wealth Report 2013 EUR trillion World GDP 2012 USD 72 trillion Average rate USD/EUR 2012 = World GDP 2012 EUR 92.5 trillion End of 2012 (share) 32% 36% 30% economic_research/publications/specials/en/agwr2013e.pdf 27 8 March 2016
28 Allianz Global Wealth Report March 2016
29 global_capital_markets/mapping_global_ capital_markets_ March 2016
30 Financial depth financial sector size debt_and_not_much_deleveraging 30 8 March 2016
31 global_capital_markets/uneven_progress _on_the_path_to_growth 31 8 March 2016
32 32 8 March 2016
33 12, , ,5 10 9,5 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, M M M M M M M M M01 Spain, interest rates (January 1995 November 2011) CONSUMER LOANS (banks) 10 yr BONDS CONSUMER LOANS (savings banks) MORTGAGES PREFERENTIAL RATE (banks) EURIBOR M M M M M M M M M March M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M07
34 5,75 5,5 5,25 5 4,75 4,5 4,25 4 3,75 3,5 3,25 3 2,75 2,5 2,25 2 1,75 1,5 1,25 1 0,75 0,5 0,25 0-0,25-0,5 Jan99 Jan00 Jan01 Jan02 Jan03 Jan04 Lending MRO Deposit Jan05 Jan06 Jan March 2016 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 ECB key interest rates 1 Jan Feb 2016 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Jan15 Jan16
35 5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,2 Euribor (2 January February 2015) 1 MONTH 02/01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ March YEAR 1 WEEK
36 5,6 5,4 5,2 5,0 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 4,0 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,0 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,2-0,4 1 MONTH Euribor (2 January February 2016) 1 WEEK 02/01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ March YEAR
37 2,2 2,0 1,8 Euribor (4 January February 2016) euribor-org/euribor-rates.html 1,6 1 YEAR 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 1 MONTH 0,6 0,4 1 WEEK 0,2 0,0-0,2-0,4 04/01/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /07/ /09/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /03/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /11/ /12/ /02/ March 2016
38 qe_and_ultra_low_interest_rates_distributional_effects_and_risks 38 8 March 2016
39 Prices of financial assets and Justifications of the inverse relationship financial arbitrage prices of financial assets as present values equalization of rates of return 39 8 March 2016
40 Financial arbitrage 40 8 March 2016
41 Central bank Monetary authority of an economy Monetary policy instruments Open market operations Standing facilities: lending / deposit Reserve requirements Policy interest rate Credit controls Tension between controlling and M March 2016
42 Expansionary OMO Contractionary OMO 42 8 March 2016
43 Reverse-repo 43 8 March 2016
44 Effects of a contractionary OMO The central bank cannot simultaneously control M1 and the interest rate March 2016
45 Central bank and the payment system 45 8 March 2016
46 A liquidity market model Supply of liquidity: direct / indirect Supply of liquidity function Demand for liquidity: direct / indirect Demand for liquidity function Market equilibrium Comparative statics 46 8 March 2016
47 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity supplied in the period 47 8 March 2016
48 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity supplied in the period 48 8 March 2016
49 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity supplied in the period 49 8 March 2016
50 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity supplied in the period 50 8 March 2016
51 = interest rate in a period Supply of liquidity function = volume of liquidity supplied in the period 51 8 March 2016
52 52 8 March 2016
53 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity demanded in the period 53 8 March 2016
54 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity demanded in the period 54 8 March 2016
55 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity demanded in the period 55 8 March 2016
56 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity demanded in the period 56 8 March 2016
57 = interest rate in a period = volume of liquidity demanded in the period Demand for liquidity function 57 8 March 2016
58 58 8 March 2016
59 * * 59 8 March 2016
60 * * 60 8 March 2016
61 Equilibrium effect of a demand shift This is a demand-side explanation of a rise in the interest rate: more liquidity wanted March 2016
62 Equilibrium effect of a supply shift This is a supply-side explanation of a rise in the interest rate: less liquidity available. L 62 8 March 2016
63 Effect of simultaneous shifts /1 The effect on is certain (a reduction) but the effect on is ambiguous. The precise effect on depends on the magnitude of the shifts March 2016
64 Effect of simultaneous shifts /2 Now the effect on is ambiguous but the effect on is certain: an increase March 2016
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