Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry

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1 Outlook for the North American Softwood Lumber Industry North American Conference October 2017 David Fortin Director, Wood Products Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

2 Quick Bio Master s Degree in Economics and Finance from International Business School at Brandeis University More than 12 years covering the forest products industry as part of the RISI economic analysis team Author of the Lumber Commentary, North American Lumber 5 Year Forecast and North American Lumber 15 Year Forecast Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 2

3 Agenda Review current market conditions North American softwood lumber demand US housing driving growth in North American demand Exposure to offshore markets impacting demand North American softwood lumber supply Availability of timber driving investment trends Lumber conversion capacity by region Outlook for costs and prices Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 3

4 Current Market Conditions Confluence of Events Tighten Markets Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 4

5 Near Term: Cautious Inventory Strategies Continue in Early 2017 US Softwood Lumber Inventory Estimate, Months of Supply Retroactive duty back to February Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5

6 Prices Jump Higher in Anticipation of Duties Crow s Composite Price, Monthly Average, $ Dollars per MBF Crow's Composite SPF 2x4 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 6

7 US and Canadian Trade Negotiations: Food for Thought Quota Could make supply curve infinitely steep Tariff and/or duty Affects lower end of cost curve US domestic consumption is improving Canadian supply is constrained British Columbia is approaching AAC limits Eastern Canada challenged by lack of demand for residuals Canadian dollar should strengthen (slightly) Canada has moved toward market based stumpage pricing Assumption in model is duties maintained over forecast Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 7

8 Canadian Dollar Strengthening, But Still Relatively Weak USD/CAD Source: Federal Reserve 8 Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8

9 Duties Move Canadian Producers Further Up the Softwood Lumber Cost Curve North American Softwood Lumber Average Variable Cost Delivered to Chicago* in 2017 US Dollars per MBF Duty 2017 (No Duty) Delivered Costs US Dollars per MBF (26% Duty) * Adjusted for product mix and underweights Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 9

10 Quota Could Result in an Undersupplied US Market Canadian Share of the US Market and Volume Supplied (BBF, Right Hand Scale) 45% 40% Volume Supplied (R) Canadian Market Share Impact of Quota on US Market 35% 15 1% US Market Share 0.5 BBF 30% 25% 20% Potential Lost Canadian Supply 28% Quota 1.5 BBF 25% Quota 3.0 BBF Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 10

11 Despite Increased Focus on Offshore Markets, YTD Offshore Shipments Have Slid Lower YTD June (BBF) Export Share Softwood Lumber Exports %Ch Canada USA % 77% 78% China % 14% 13% Japan % 5% 5% Other % 4% 4% Total % 100% 100% Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 11

12 Imports from Western Europe Key to Potential Constraints on Canadian Shipments US Offshore Imports (BBF) and Share of Domestic Demand (Right Hand Scale) * *Annualized YTD thru June Germany & Sweden Other Share of Domestic Demand (R) 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 12

13 North American Demand Domestic Consumption and Net Exports Heading in Different Directions Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13

14 Net Exports Fall as Domestic Markets Improve and Competition in Offshore Markets Increases BBF Net Exports Percent of Demand on North American Mills (R) % 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 14

15 US Softwood Lumber Consumption: R&R Remains the Largest End Use Market for Lumber Market Share and Volume BBF 2016: 47.6 BBF 2019: 55.9 BBF 1.7 4% % 2.0 4% % % % % % Residential Industrial R&R Nonresidential Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 15

16 North American Softwood Lumber Demand: Growth in Domestic Demand More Than Offsets Decline in Net Exports BBF s 1990s US Canadian Net Exports Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 16

17 North American Supply Slow Growth Masks Divergent Regional Trends Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 17

18 BC Runs Up Against Fiber Constraints, While E Canada Seems to Have Room to Expand Roundwood Harvest Demand, Million Cubic Meters, All Species 120 Eastern Canada 120 British Columbia Million m Million m Total Harvest 20 Operable Sustainable Allowable Annual Cut Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 18

19 Softwood Sawtimber Demand Is Unlikely to Fully Recover Billion Board Feet 25 US South 14 US West (Inland and Coast) Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 19

20 US West Coast Log Cost Premium Drives Investment to the US South US Delivered Log Prices (MBF, Scribner) Douglas fir (West Coast) Southern Yellow Pine Douglas fir Premium (%) % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 20

21 Sawmill Employment Basically Flat Even as Production Moves Higher US Lumber Production (BBF) and Number of People Employed (Right Hand Scale) BBF US Production Number of Employees Thousands Employed Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 21

22 Modest Supply Growth Masks Divergent Regional Trends Average Annual Capacity Growth (BBF) 2016 (BBF) 2019 (BBF) Change (BBF) Average % Ch Canada % British Columbia % Eastern Canada % United States % US South % Other USA % Total North America % Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 22

23 US South Will Continue to Be the Low Cost Region Average Variable Production Costs, US Dollars per MBF US South US Coast US Inland 0 1Q00 1Q03 1Q06 1Q09 1Q12 1Q15 1Q18 Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 23

24 Outlook for Lumber Prices Markets Continue to Grow Tighter Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 24

25 North American Softwood Lumber Market Tightens Further Demand/Capacity Ratio for North American Softwood Lumber Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 25

26 Lumber Prices More Volatile and Prices Trend Higher as Demand/Capacity Reaches Mid 80s Scatter Plot of Price/AVC and Demand/Capacity Ratio Price/AVC Demand/Capacity Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 26

27 Take Home Points Domestic consumption will continue to grow Increased competition in offshore markets and strong domestic pricing environment will: Moderate growth in offshore shipments Attract more imports from offshore Duties moderating supply growth in Eastern Canada Canadian producers have been pushed further up the industry cost curve Markets tightening with upward pressure on prices and volatility Profits vary greatly between regions Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 27

28 Thank you for your attention! For more information: David Fortin North American Lumber & Wood Panels 5 and 15 Year Forecasts Lumber, Structural Panel and PB/MDF Commentaries Copyright 2017 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 28

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