BrazilianStatesFiscal Sustainability
|
|
- Frederick Bryan
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 BrazilianStatesFiscal Sustainability VII Jornada Iberoamericana de Financiación Local Cartagena, Colombia(Sept-2018) Guilherme Tinoco, Economic Research Department The views expressed in this presentation reflect ongoing research at the Economic Departament and do not necessarily reflect the views of the institution
2 Agenda Introduction Institutional framework Fiscal Outlook: a critical situation Whatbroughtustothispoint? Whattoreform? Perspectives Conclusion 2
3 Introduction Macro Outlook Fiscal crisis Recession Fiscal crisis Central government with large fiscal imbalances GDP growth (% a.a.) 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% -2,0% 5,8% 3,2% 4,0% 6,1% 5,1% -0,1% 7,5% 4,0% 1,9% 3,0% 0,5% 1,0% Primary Fiscal Balance Central Government (% GDP) 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -4,0% -6,0% -3,5% -3,5% ,0% -3,0% Source: IBGE, STN 3
4 Introduction Macro Outlook Public Gross Debt on all-time high and above other emerging Aging population makes things worse Gross Public Debt (DBGG) - % GDP 80% 75% 77,0% 9,0 8,0 Old Population Dependency Ratio 7,7 70% 7,0 65% 60% 6,0 5,0 4,0 2,1 55% 3,0 50% 45% 2,0 1,0 0, dez-06 jun-07 dez-07 jun-08 dez-08 jun-09 dez-09 jun-10 dez-10 jun-11 dez-11 jun-12 dez-12 jun-13 dez-13 jun-14 dez-14 jun-15 dez-15 jun-16 dez-16 jun-17 dez-17 jun Source: BCB, IBGE 4
5 Institutional Framework 20yearsofaframeworkthatusedtowork Statespublicdebtveryhighduring90 s 1997: Agreement with the Central Government(CG) Goodforbothparts Programa de Ajuste Fiscal Restrictions on indebtness 2000: Fiscal Responsability Law(FRL) -Twomainfiscalrules 1) D/R<200% 2) Personnel/R < 60% 5
6 Fiscal Outlook Phase1:Goodoutcomes Phase 2: Deterioration chaos State level Primary Balance (% GDP) 1,20% 0,96% 1,00% 0,82% 0,79% 0,83% 0,80% 0,69% 0,68% 0,68% 0,57% 0,60% 0,54% 0,44% 0,39% 0,40% 0,24% 0,15% 0,20% 0,11% 0,11% 0,00% -0,20% -0,40% -0,23% From 2015: Not realistic nor healthy Fonte: BCB 6
7 Fiscal Outlook Revenues and expenditures growing together until 2010s Expenditures: personnel (employees and pensions) difficult do adjust Numbers are tricky : creative accounting State Level: Revenues and Expenditures (% GDP) 10,0% 9,5% 9,0% 8,5% 8,5% 9,2% 9,2% 8,0% 7,9% Revenues Expenditures 7,5% 7,0% Fonte: STN 7
8 Fiscal Outlook Situation became critical: cash-flow serious problems NewhelpfromtheCG(20yearslengthendebt) They also raised taxes and cut investment Public Investment - State-level (% GDP) 0,7 0,9 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,5 0,7 0,9 1,0 0,7 0,7 0,9 1,0 0,6 0,5 0, Fonte: IBRE 8
9 Debt Evolution Debtgrowingagainfrom2014 Debt composition: very concentrated on CG debt ButBanksandExternaldebtwereusedfrom2012 Exchange rate risk 18,0% 15,5% 17,3% 16,2% 15,6% States Debt Composition (% GDP) 14,1% 13,2% 11,9% 11,6% 13,0% 10,5% 10,0% 9,2% 9,2% 9,1% 9,5% 11,0% 11,0% 11,0% 8,0% 3,0% -2,0% CG Banks External Other Total Fonte: BCB 9
10 Debt Evolution RJandRS:abovetheFRLlimit MGontheway Fonte: STN 10
11 Debt Evolution SP+RJ+MG+RS=80%ofdebt Othershavemuchlowerdebt R$ bilhões % do PIB % do total São Paulo 269 4,1% 36,0% Rio de Janeiro 141 2,1% 18,9% Minas Gerais 108 1,6% 14,5% Rio Grande do Sul 79 1,2% 10,6% Goiás 18 0,3% 2,4% Bahia 18 0,3% 2,4% Paraná 15 0,2% 2,0% Santa Catarina 14 0,2% 1,9% Pernambuco 13 0,2% 1,7% Outros 72 1,1% 9,6% Total Estados 747 Fonte: BCB 11
12 Debt Evolution Whatbroughtustothispoint? 12
13 Reason 1: Institutional deterioration Restrictions on credit were relaxed(2008 crisis, Big events): Credit operations (domestic and foreign banks) allowed the increase on expenditures Fonte: STN 13
14 Reason 1: Institutional deterioration Creative accounting helping states to meet FRL targets PersonnelExp(%RCL)above60%insomecases Personnel Exp. (% RCL) Fonte: STN 14
15 Reason 2: Personnel Expenditures Personnel expenditures growing 5,7% in real terms between (Above revenues and also GDP) 2015/2016 adjustment shows where the challenge is 15
16 Reason 3: 2015/2016 Recession Big Recession exposed faster the structural problems GDP and States Revenues growth (% a.a.) 5,8% 15,3% 3,2% 9,4% 4,0% 8,4% 6,1% 6,9% 5,1% 12,6% -0,1% -1,9% 7,5% 10,2% 4,0% 5,0% 1,9% 3,9% 3,0% 4,8% 0,5% 1,3% -3,5% -4,4% -3,5% -0,7% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% GDP Revenues
17 What to reform? 1 - Institutional Future Common accounting standards(gestão Fiscal Council) Personnel Management Policy Reform(more flexible tools) Other Current New Programa de Ajuste Fiscal Regime de Recuperação Fiscal Sistema de Garantias da União Instituição Fiscal Independente 17
18 Whattoreform? 2 PensionReform Pension Reform Aging Population + high salaries pressuring pension expenditures State Pension Systems have a worse age structure than population in general Fonte: IPEA 18
19 Perspectives We run some simple exercises to have a big picture (until 2030) Simulation from the primary balance Assumption I: Market consensus for the macro scenario Assumption II: Revenues(elasticity = 1) Assumption III: expenditures Revenues 350,0 391,2 430,2 477,6 514,7 544,8 574,9 Expenditures 338,7 367,8 411,2 478,0 524,3 543,9 575,0 Personnel 184,7 207,3 235,2 260,7 289,5 327,8 340,8 Investments 49,5 42,8 44,6 61,3 67,5 43,0 42,9 Other 104,5 117,7 131,5 155,9 167,4 173,2 191,3 Balance 11,3 23,5 19,0-0,4-9,6 0,9-0,2 R$ current billions Fonte: STN 19
20 Perspectives Exercise 1: states can rollover debt all the time Conclusion: If(i) they are very sucessful in control all other expenses than pensions and(ii) the pension reform has success reducing the growth rate of retired population, primary balances can be achieved in the medium term and debt/gdp can even reduce Dívida líquida (% PIB) 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% Cen. A Cen. B Cen. C ,3% 14,4% 11,8% Obs: Pensions annual tax growth: A) 2,5% B) 3,5% C) 4,5% Others: 2,0% 20
21 Perspectives Exercise 2: States must repay the debt following the maturity structure(with the adjustment in investment) Conclusion: The investment go to almost zero, even with all other expenses(but pensions) constant in real terms 1,5% 1,3% 1,1% 0,9% 0,7% 0,5% 0,3% 0,1% -0,1% Cen. A Cen. B Cen. C 21
22 Perspectives This means that they will have to rollover debt in the coming years But the National Treasury is controlling much more now (Sistema de Garantias da União) So, it makes important to be solvent(pension Reform again?) Ifeconomygrowthsfasteritwillhelpalot 22
23 Conclusion Brazilian States Fiscal situation deteriorated in the past years Fiscal imbalances are severe, cash-flow problems NewwaiversfromtheCG States have a large fraction of expenditures on personnel Aging population will continue to be an issue Reforms on Institutional framework are necessary(and going on) Pension Reform and economic growth: mandatory Weseethedemandforcreditinthemediumterm,buttheStates mustbeseenassolvent 23
The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department
The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department Political stress and Government Yield Curve Yield Curve - Brazil 0#DIJ: Yield 15,8 15,655 15,655 15,6 15,4 YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Realtime;
More informationGovernment finances A long term assessment. Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira
Government finances A long term assessment Presented by Edwina Matos Pereira Walter Mosher June 22, 2010 Structure 1. Aruba s current fiscal landscape 2. Long term outlook & scenarios 3. Aruba s GDP volatility
More information2017 PNG Economic Survey. Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU)
2017 PNG Economic Survey Rohan Fox (ANU), Stephen Howes (ANU), Nelson Atip Nema (UPNG), Marcel Schröder (UPNG and ANU) Introduction New government, new plan Short-term challenges: recession, falling government
More informationColombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018
Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies
More informationIssues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada
Policy and Economic Analysis Program Rotman School of Management University of Toronto Issues in the Long-Term Economic Outlook for Canada Office of the Chief Actuary Canada Pension Plan Seminar September
More informationAbel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Abel M. Mateus Universidade Nova de Lisboa It is widely known the success of Asian Tigers But is less known that Portugal was one of the few countries, similar to the Asian Tigers, that changed from a
More informationInside Brazil: The Leading Auto Manufacturers and Suppliers. Augusto Amorim
Inside Brazil: The Leading Auto Manufacturers and Suppliers Augusto Amorim Brazil Beyond Soccer and Carnival World Soccer Cup winner five times World s most popular Carnival World s 6th largest light vehicle
More informationThe Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationAlloy Production Is Brazil Back Online?
Alloy Production Is Brazil Back Online? Singapore, March 23 rd, 2016 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic,
More informationROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN
ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Department Vol. XVIl, No.3 March 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02 Table
More informationROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN
ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.9 September 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02
More informationROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN
ROYAL MONETARY AUTHORITY OF BHUTAN MONTHLY STATISTICAL BULLETIN Department of Macroeconomic Research and Statistics Vol. XVIl, No.11 November 2018 CONTENTS Preface....01 Bhutan s Key Economic Indicators..02
More informationThe U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
More informationThe Sustainability of Public Finances in Belgium: Regional, Federal and EU Perspectives
The Sustainability of Public Finances in Belgium: Regional, Federal and EU Perspectives Per Eckefeldt European Commission BEL-DEBT Project CEPS, Brussels, 24 February 2014 The views expressed herein are
More informationHighlights. Issue 44 - Year 03. Read breaking news about the Gerdau Group in the world. Enjoy!
Issue 44 - Year 03 Read breaking news about the Gerdau Group in the world. Enjoy! Highlights» Gerdau Group receives Top of HR ADVB 2006 award» Gerdau supports the biggest educational project in Brazil»
More informationIndian Economy in Graphs. Arvind Panagariya Columbia University
Indian Economy in Graphs Growth in GDP and Per-capita GDP 9 8.3 8 7 6.7 6 5.8 5 4 3 2 4.1 2.2 3.2 4.6 2.2 3.7 1 0.8 0 Phase I (1951-64) Phase II (1965-81) Phase III (1981-88) Phase IV (1988-03) Phase V
More informationWhat Can We Learn From the Current Crisis in Argentina?
What Can We Learn From the Current Crisis in Argentina? Timothy J. Kehoe University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis June 2003 www.econ.umn.edu/~tkehoe The economy of Argentina finds
More informationNormalising public finances in the Netherlands. OECD meeting of Senior Budget Officials Maaike Adema
Normalising public finances in the Netherlands OECD meeting of Senior Budget Officials Maaike Adema Contents Impact of the crisis Dutch response to the crisis Fundamental policy review Implementation challenges
More informationPROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION
PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2018 THE SASKATCHEWAN DIFFERENCE Economic Stability Diversified economy balances cyclicality of resources Growing population Majority government with
More informationNational and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
More informationUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development. TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT BOARD (62nd session)
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT BOARD (62nd session) Geneva, 14-25 September 2015 Item 6: Evolution of the international trading system and its trends from a development
More informationTAX REFORM AND THE BUDGET
TAX REFORM AND THE BUDGET Len Burman Daniel Patrick Moynihan Professor of Public Affairs, Maxwell School, Syracuse University OASIS February 9, 2011 Part I: About the Budget How did you go bankrupt? Bill
More informationDeficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM
Deficit Reduction and Economic Growth: Are They Mutually Exclusive Goals? Tuesday, May 1, 2012; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Moderator: Gillian Tett, U.S. Managing Editor, Financial Times Speakers: Jared Bernstein,
More informationRecent Fiscal Developments and Outlook: The April 2014 IMF Fiscal Monitor Julio Escolano
Recent Fiscal Developments and Outlook: The April 214 IMF Fiscal Monitor Julio Escolano Division Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Joint Vienna Institute, Vienna, June,
More informationIt Was Never Going To Be Easy
It Was Never Going To Be Easy Stephen Toplis, Head of Research July 2010 Introduction Global power shift sustained Average outlook on the improve Fiscal constraints binding Domestic rebalance under way
More informationThe Federal Budget Now and In the Future THE CONCORD COALITION. presented by Joshua Gordon, Policy Director.
The Federal Budget Now and In the Future presented by Joshua Gordon, Policy Director THE CONCORD COALITION www.concordcoalition.org America is on an Unsustainable Fiscal Path Debt Held by the Public, as
More informationUBS Annual Nordic Financial Services Conference Lars Aa. Løddesøl Group CFO - Storebrand
UBS Annual Nordic Financial Services Conference 2013 Lars Aa. Løddesøl Group CFO - Storebrand 1 The Storebrand Group 100% of investments assessed by sustainability criteria 2.200 employees 40.000 corporate
More informationSeven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness
Seven Lean Years Explaining Persistent Global Economic Weakness 9 June 2015 Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Tim Lane Deputy Governor Bank of Canada The global economy remains weak and
More informationMonitoring of graduating and graduated countries: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Maldives, Samoa, and Vanuatu
Monitoring of graduating and graduated countries: Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Maldives, Samoa, and Vanuatu Namsuk Kim CDP Secretariat CDP 20 th plenary meeting 12 16 March 2018 Monitoring timeline Date
More informationCBO s January Baseline Sets the Stage. CRFB.org
CBO s January Baseline Sets the Stage 1 Trillion-Dollar Deficits Are Returning $1,600 Billions $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 Deficits Increased Almost 800% Deficits Fell 69% Deficits Triple to Nearly $1.4
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
More informationU.S Cement Outlook IEEE. Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist
U.S Cement Outlook IEEE Ed Sullivan Group VP, Chief Economist 1 Construction Activity Billion Real $ 1,400 1,200 1,000 2014 = 2.5% 2015 = 5.6% 800 600 400 200 0 12 Year Peak-to- Peak Recovery 1998 2000
More informationSchool of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho
School of international and Public Affairs Columbia University Manuel Pinho SPHERE WITH CORE What matters to China matters to the world Do not give lessons to China: Europe and the US The challenges: Growth
More informationMacro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation
Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%
More informationThe Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension Prof. Rafi Melnick Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya
The Herzliya Conference The Economic Dimension 2009 Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationEurope June Craig Menear. Chairman, CEO & President. Diane Dayhoff. Vice President, Investor Relations
Europe June 2016 Craig Menear Chairman, CEO & President Diane Dayhoff Vice President, Investor Relations Forward Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measurements Certain statements contained in today
More informationAvoiding the Blind Alley China s Economic Overhaul and its Global Implications
Avoiding the Blind Alley China s Economic Overhaul and its Global Implications Daniel Rosen Partner dhrosen@rhg.com NYU Stern China Research Luncheon New York December 1, 2014 10 East 40 th Street, Suite
More informationROLE OF COPPER IN CHILEAN ECONOMY
ROLE OF COPPER IN CHILEAN ECONOMY Patricio Meller, Bernardo Lara & Gonzalo Valdés January 2010 1 Basic Data: Chile 2009 Population (millions) 17 Yn/cap (US$ PPP) 14,299 GDP (billions US$) 243 Territory
More informationLost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy
Lost in Translation: (In)Coherence Between Agricultural and Development Policy Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla Agricultural Trade Policy in the U.S. Can reform advance domestic policy objectives and sustainable development?
More informationCarol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services
Carol Tomé CFO and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services Financial Overview December 6, 2017 1 Discussion Overview Fiscal 2017 Financial Guidance Our View of the Economy and State of the U.S. Housing
More informationThe Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments
The Eurozone integration, des-integration and possible future developments 18 th Monetary Policy Workshop at the Berlin School of Economcs and Law, 12 13 October 2017 Overview Position 1: The euro itself
More informationState of Berlin. Investor Presentation
SenFin 303-12/2015 State of Berlin Investor Presentation July 2018 Berlin An outstanding investment opportunity Content Capital political and cultural center Economic Base - attractive business location
More informationThe End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China
The End of Hyper growth: Political and Economic Responses to a Slowing China Barry Naughton IR/PS, UC San Diego 5 th Annual G2 at GW Conference October 12, 2012 Conclusions (Seriously) Forces that are
More informationGreat Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project
Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century Project Timothy J. Kehoe and Edward C. Prescott www.greatdepressionsbook.com Cole and Ohanian, The Great Depression in the United States from a Neoclassical Perspective,
More informationWhat you should know, higher prices trade tensions, and the expanding economy September 11, 2018 Mark Schniepp Director
The 2018 Economy What you should know, higher prices trade tensions, and the expanding economy September 11, 2018 Mark Schniepp Director 1 The annual update Why are you here? (1) I m here for the update
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update.
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Update February 26, 2013 The Worst Recession Since the Great Depression 0% Loss from Peak
More informationFinancial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition
Financial Stability Implications of Changing Global Finance: Policy Panel Global Finance in Transition May 7 and 8, 2013 İstanbul, Turkey Outline 1 The Financial System 2 Weak Growth 3 4 5 Unprecedented
More informationPNG: Fiscal Policy at a Crossroads
PNG: Fiscal Policy at a Crossroads KUM HWA OH YONGZHENG YANG A S I A P A C I F I C D E P A R T M E N T I N T E R N A T I O N A L M O N E T A R Y F U N D P N G U P D A T E J U N E 1 2, 2 0 1 4 PNG: Fiscal
More informationCommodity Endowment Funds
Commodity Endowment Funds Moscow March 9-10 Roberts L. Grava Jennifer Johnson-Calari World Bank rgrava@worldbank.org jjohnsoncalari@worldbank.org Challenges of managing commodity revenues Macro issues
More informationBRAZIL S INVESTMENT CLIMATE
São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Brasília Curitiba Recife Belo Horizonte Campo Grande London Lisbon Shanghai Beijing Miami Buenos Aires Johannesburg BRAZIL S INVESTMENT CLIMATE - 2011 DURVAL DE NORONHA GOYOS JR.
More informationThe Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
More informationBMO Capital Markets Annual Infrastructure & Utilities Conference 407 International February 8, 2018
BMO Capital Markets Annual Infrastructure & Utilities Conference 407 International February 8, 2018 Disclaimer/Disclosure This presentation has been prepared by 407 ETR. The financial information presented
More informationMore of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP
More informationA comment on recent events, and...
A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,
More informationHalf year results Accell Group 2017
Half year results Accell Group 2017 Hielke Sybesma, Interim CEO & CFO Jeroen Snijders Blok, COO Jeroen Both, CSCO July 21, 2017 Agenda 1. Key results H1 2017 2. Strategy 3. Outlook July 21, 2017 Accell
More informationPanel on Post-Crisis Growth Performance Determinants, Effects and Policy Implications
Panel on Post-Crisis Growth Performance Determinants, Effects and Policy Implications Carmen M. Harvard University Bank of Canada and European Central Bank Conference Ottawa, June 8-9, 2015 1 Outline (i)
More informationSão Paulo, 23 April 2007
1/38 BRAZIL AND CANADA: TRADE FUNDAMENTALS AND PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER COOPERATION São Paulo, 23 April 2007 Durval de Noronha Goyos Jr. Noronha Advogados São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Curitiba, Porto
More informationHorizonte 2 Project Update May 31, 2016
Horizonte 2 Project Update May 31, 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Project schedule Production volumes Forestry base Logistics Capex Funding Financials and Conclusion Agenda 2 3 Project schedule on time, on budget
More informationPresident and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics
The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.
More informationTax Reform in a Trump World
Tax Reform in a Trump World Government Fleet Expo and Conference Kenneth J. Kies Managing Director The Federal Policy Group San Antonio, Texas June 14, 2017 Overview The 2016 Election did not Change Our
More informationUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty
More informationBig Changes, Unknown Impacts
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth
More informationThe U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D.
The U.S. Economic Recovery: Why so weak and what should be done? William J. Crowder Ph.D. Weak Recovery? It s no secret that the U.S. economy has still not fully recovered from the financial crisis and
More informationFINANCIAL ANALYSIS. Stoby
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Stoby INVESTMENTS AND FINANCING Investments planned over the period : Investments 2018 2019 2020 2021 Intangible assets Company creation 1 500 Web platform development 8 290 Accounting
More informationThe Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
More informationEffects of Common Economic Space Creation
Effects of Common Economic Space Creation Институт Institute of народнохозяйственного Economic Forecasting прогнозирования Florence September, 2012 20 years of independent economic development 1990 1991
More informationQSPS Conference. May, 2013 Utah State University
QSPS Conference Ayşe Imrohoro¼glu May, 2013 Utah State University QSPS Conference Long-run Japanese Saving Rate 0.30 0.25 Japan 0.20 Saving Rate 0.15 0.10 U.S. 0.05 0.00 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986
More informationNorthwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook
Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs 2019 Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook 1/10/2019 2 U.S. ECONOMY 1/10/2019 3 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
More informationAnnual results 2017 and strategy update. 09 March 2018
Annual results 2017 and strategy update 09 March 2018 Agenda 1. Highlights & Group performance 2017 2. Strategy update 3. Outlook 2018 March 9, 2018 Accell Group N.V. presentation annual results 2017 1
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
More informationWhy Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish?
Why Is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis So Sluggish? Robert E. Hall Hoover Institution and Department of Economics Stanford University Keynote Address Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
More informationPerspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore
Perspectives on the long-term outlook for iron ore John Barkas john.barkas@metalytics.com.au Iron Ore 2015 Perth WA, 13 July 2015 Disclaimer Metalytics is a consultancy based in Sydney, Australia that
More informationBetter in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union. Roma, Rapporto Europa 2015
Better in than out? Economic performance inside and outside the European monetary union Rapporto Europa 2015 Roma, 9.7.2015 1 Table of Content I. The political threat Why European monetary union? II. Europe
More information2017 Major Projects Pipeline Report Adrian Hart, Senior Manager Infrastructure & Mining
2017 Major Projects Pipeline Report Adrian Hart, Senior Manager Infrastructure & Mining Major Projects Pipeline Report - 2017 Presentation Outline Key findings of the 2017 Pipeline Report The outlook for
More informationBRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: INCREDIBLE MOMENT OF A POLITICAL CRISIS BUT WE CANNOT JEOPARDIZE THIS CRISIS
BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: INCREDIBLE MOMENT OF A POLITICAL CRISIS BUT WE CANNOT JEOPARDIZE THIS CRISIS 1 Economic Research Department April, 2016 WHY IS THE FISCAL POLICY SO CHALLENGING? Political
More informationAfter the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
More informationPoland: Europe s economic outperformer. Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group. Copenhagen, 29 April 2014
Poland: Europe s economic outperformer Piotr Bujak Chief Economist at Nordea Bank Polska PKO Bank Polski Group Copenhagen, 29 April 2014 Poland crisis-proof economic front-runner 300 250 200 % Cumulated
More information2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
More informationThe Rise of China and Breaking out the Middle- Income Trap in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: A New Structural Economics Approach
The Rise of China and Breaking out the Middle- Income Trap in Latin America and the Caribbean countries: A New Structural Economics Approach Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The
More informationMONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute
More informationEconomic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business
Economic Update and Prospects for 2019 Professor Robert M. McNab Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy Strome College of Business January 3, 2019 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute
More informationCorporate Presentation. September 2015 Results
Corporate Presentation September 2015 Results Agenda Enaex and its history Enaex in the explosive market Financial Background Sales (TM USD) Enaex at a Glance (1) With 95 years of history in the Chilean
More informationEFFECTS OF EXTENDING AND EXPANDING ENERGY-EFFICIENCY TAX DEDUCTION FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS
EFFECTS OF EXTENDING AND EXPANDING ENERGY-EFFICIENCY TAX DEDUCTION FOR COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS Prepared by Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Agenda Overview of 179D tax provision Energy efficiency and
More informationThe U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
More informationEconomic Update and Outlook
The Building Industry Association Of Okaloosa-Walton Counties Economic Update and Outlook Rick Harper, PhD February 1, 2018 The Economic Outlook 3rd longest postwar expansion for U.S., marked 103 months
More informationTHE FIRST WTE IN BRAZIL. Sergio Guerreiro Ribeiro President, WTERT-Brasil
THE FIRST WTE IN BRAZIL Sergio Guerreiro Ribeiro President, WTERT-Brasil Table of Contents 1. Location of WTE Power Plant 2. Current State of Waste Management in Brazil 3. Electric Sector in Brazil 4.
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationDon t Be a Sap! (Our Class Motto?)
Don t Be a Sap! (Our Class Motto?) Why do I keep asking you for longer time series on real estate data? Data is good. More data = more information. Sadly, we have cases where people selectively present
More informationDomestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure
Domestic resource mobilization. Infrastructure Setting the scene: Infrastructure patterns in emerging markets Christian Daude and Ángel Melguizo Americas Desk OECD Development Centre Development Finance
More informationEconomic Transformation and Recovery in Hong Kong and Singapore
School of Economics and Finance, The University of Hong Kong Presentation given at the followings : - Zonta Club 1999 Accountancy Conference, Vocational Training Council on October 8, 1999 The Society
More information2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST
2005/06 BUDGET DIGEST Ministry of Finance United Republic of Tanzania TABLE OF CONTENTS No. List of Charts/Tables Page No. 1 Annual Growth in Real GDP 1 2 Trend in Real Agricultural Output 1 3 Trend in
More informationFuture Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
More informationTHE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES
THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION FROM HORSES HIGHLIGHTS The horse industry contributes more than $19 billion annually to the Canadian economy On-farm activities with horses generate
More informationThe Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
More informationNational Transfer Accounts in Mexico
National Transfer Accounts in Mexico Policy implications: labor market Iván Mejía Guevara imejiag@stanford.edu Stanford University 12th Global Meeting of the NTA Network, Mexico City, July 23-27, 2018
More informationMuhlenkamp & Company. Webinar December 1, Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President
Muhlenkamp & Company Webinar December 1, 2016 Ron Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Jeff Muhlenkamp, Portfolio Manager Tony Muhlenkamp, President Muhlenkamp & Company, Inc. Intelligent Investment Management
More informationTable of Contents. Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi
Table of Contents Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi Chapter 1. 2008 A Year of Wild Fluctuations in the Global Economy...1 Introduction...1 The Triple Crisis Fuel-Food-Financial...1
More informationThe Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls
The Baltic economies: Current situation and future trends, possibilities and pitfalls Riga, 15 October 2015 Morten Hansen Head of Economics Department, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga Member of the
More informationSusan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator
A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF
More information