Don t Be a Sap! (Our Class Motto?)

Transcription

1 Don t Be a Sap! (Our Class Motto?)

2 Why do I keep asking you for longer time series on real estate data? Data is good. More data = more information. Sadly, we have cases where people selectively present information to mislead. 45

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5 60% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 60% Annual Percentage Change, CPI for Real Rents 1997 and

6 CPI for Real Rent, 1950= ,

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8 A student chart: Brazil s exchange rate 51

9 Brazilian Reals per U.S. Dollar Stronger Real / Weaker 2.50 Dollar

10 Brazil s annual inflation rate % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 53

11 Brazilian Reals per US Dollar, annual data (Priorto 1994 currency reform, indexchained as if cruzadoswere reals) reform 1994 Currrency : Divide cruzeiro rate by

12 World Population

13 Total GDP at Purchasing Power Parity Exchange Rates

14 Simon Kuznets Nobel Prize in Economics,

15 Have you noticed that the World Development Indicators has many measures of GDP/GNI? Let s do a quick tutorial on some of the main measures. 58

16 If you re not a local, understanding GDP requires understanding di exchange rates Today we ll look at GDP PC data; we ll talk about exchange rates conceptually, a bit. Next week, we ll take a quick look at exchange rates, more explicitly. 59

17 Which GDP number? WDI presents multiple measures of economic output, including: GDP in current US Dollars GDP in constant (real) US $2000 GDP in constant Local Currency Units (LCU) GDP in current international dollars PPP GDP in constant Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP, or GDP Per Capita? WDI also present a set of numbers of GNI (an alternative ti measure, GDP plus net income from abroad). 60

18 GDP per capita (current US$) GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. This one is handy but remember the value of the dollar changes over time because of inflation. This one is a good choice if you want to examine (e.g.) a Mexican investment from the perspective of a Japanese investor. Use dollar/peso and dollar/yen exchange rates to get peso/yen. 61

19 GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$) GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minusany subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant U.S. dollars. This measure shows us GDP PC from a U.S. perspective, adjusted for the changing value of the dollar, given inflation. 62

20 GDP per capita (constant LCU) LCU: Local Currency Units. GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added d by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant localcurrency currency. This measure shows us the time path of real GDP PC from the perspective of a local consumer or investor. 63

21 PurchasingPower Power Parity Pioneered by Irving Kravis, Alan Heston and Robert Summers (International Comparison Program, a.k.a. Penn World Tables ) Adjusts for cost of living i (including differences in real estate t prices) International dollar is the numeraire, i.e. U.S. cost of living is the benchmark. (US PPP GDP is the same as US GDP) Tends to raise the measured GDP of poorer countries (including China, etc.) Tends to lower the measured GDP of countries with really expensive real estate (e.g. Japan) 64

22 PurchasingPower Power Parity Note PPP adjustments are based on costs of housing/real estate for typical consumers in that country, often the cost of Class A, Western style real estate has less weight. Requires extensive survey data for basic calculations. Countries/dates not in survey sample areadjusted adjusted using regression models. PPP data are therefore subject to additional errors. Note you can t take dollars to China (or anywhere else) and exchange them at the PPP rate! 65

23 GDPper capita, PPP (current international$) GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current international dollars. Good choice if you want to do PPP but express in a third currency. 66

24 GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international i l$) GDP per capita based on purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP GDP is gross domestic product converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP as the U.S. dollar has in the United States. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in constant 2005 international dollars. This measure shows us GDP PC, adjusted for the local prices ofnon tradeables (notablyhousing) housing), inreal dollars. 67

25 10,000 1, Alternative Measures of China GDP Per Capita Constant $2000 Current U.S. Dollars Constant PPP Current PPP

26 0.30 Alternative Measures of Annual Growth Rates in China GDP Per Capita Real LCU Constant $2000 Current U.S. $ Current PPP Constant PPP

27 Which GDP number? Examine them all, but for simplicity I usually focus on two measures of output, all GDP per capita: GDP PC in constant (real) US $2000 GDP PC in constant Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). IfI m Im advising a local investor or government, then I focus on GDP PC in constant LCU. 70