The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department

Transcription

1 The end of the macroeconomic adjustment? Economic Department

2 Political stress and Government Yield Curve

3 Yield Curve - Brazil 0#DIJ: Yield 15,8 15,655 15,655 15,6 15,4 YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Realtime; 5Y 4M 19D; 14,428; YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Rolling(09/03/2016); 5Y 4M 19D; 14,428; YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Rolling(29/02/2016); 5Y 4M 19D; 15,655; YC; 0#DIJ:; Trade Price; Rolling(29/02/2016); 5Y 4M 19D; 15,655 22D - 5Y 4M 19D Lines: Pink 03/08/2016 Orange 03/09/2019 Blue 02/29/ , ,8 14,6 14,428 14,428 14, ,8 Auto 22D 7M 26D 1Y 4M 2Y 1M 3D 3Y 1M 7D 4Y 1M 13D 5Y 4M 19D 3

4 Structural issues

5 Structural issues - Monetary Real Interest Rate (ex-post) (% YoY) * Brazil 12,31 10,11 6,79 7,85 4,44 4,84 4,5 1,41 4,09 5,34 3,58 3,54 Chile 0,84 2,69-1,83 1,16 1,88 0,28 0,81 3,51 1,56-1,6-0,65-1,26 Mexico 4,92 2,95 3,74 1,78 0,93 0,1 0,68 0,96-0,47-1,08 0,52 0,64 Colombia 1,15 3,02 3,81 1,83 1,5-0,17 1,02 1,81 1,31 0,84-0,89-1,21 Indonesia -4,37 3,15 1,41-1,81 3,72-0,46 2,21 1,45-0,58-0,61 2,61 2,86 China 3,98 3,32 0,97 4,11 3,41 1,21 2,46 3,5 3,5 4,1 3,05 2,55 5

6 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 out/13 jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 Structural issues - Monetary Sales Value (index) Source: FIPE/ZAP, Gradual Investimentos 230,0 210,0 190,0 170,0 150,0 130,0 110,0 90,0 70,0 50,0 São Paulo Rio de Janeiro 6

7 jan/08 abr/08 jul/08 out/08 jan/09 abr/09 jul/09 out/09 jan/10 abr/10 jul/10 out/10 jan/11 abr/11 jul/11 out/11 jan/12 abr/12 jul/12 out/12 jan/13 abr/13 jul/13 out/13 jan/14 abr/14 jul/14 out/14 jan/15 abr/15 jul/15 out/15 jan/16 Structural issues - Monetary Rental Index (rent / property price) Source: FIPE/ZAP, Gradual Investimentos 0,80% 0,75% 0,70% 0,65% 0,60% 0,55% 0,50% 0,45% 0,40% 0,35% 0,30% Nacional São Paulo Rio de Janeiro 7

8 jul/40 jul/42 jul/44 jul/46 jul/48 jul/50 jul/52 jul/54 jul/56 jul/58 jul/60 jul/62 jul/64 jul/66 jul/68 jul/70 jul/72 jul/74 jul/76 jul/78 jul/80 jul/82 jul/84 jul/86 jul/88 jul/90 jul/92 jul/94 jul/96 jul/98 jul/00 jul/02 jul/04 jul/06 jul/08 jul/10 jul/12 jul/14 Structural issues - Monetary Minimum Real Wage Source: IPEA, Gradual Investimentos R$1.400,00 R$1.200,00 R$1.000,00 R$800,00 R$600,00 R$400,00 R$200,00 R$- 8

9 jul/40 jul/42 jul/44 jul/46 jul/48 jul/50 jul/52 jul/54 jul/56 jul/58 jul/60 jul/62 jul/64 jul/66 jul/68 jul/70 jul/72 jul/74 jul/76 jul/78 jul/80 jul/82 jul/84 jul/86 jul/88 jul/90 jul/92 jul/94 jul/96 jul/98 jul/00 jul/02 jul/04 jul/06 jul/08 jul/10 jul/12 jul/14 Structural issues - Monetary Minimum wage - purchasing power parity (PPP) Source: IPEA, Gradual Investimentos $350,00 $300,00 $250,00 $200,00 $150,00 $100,00 $50,00 $- 9

10 Structural issues - FISCAL Fiscal Result Source: BCB, Gradual Investimento Total revenue (R$ mi) Total expenditure (R$ mi) Primary Fiscal Result (R$ mi) 10

11 Structural issues - FISCAL Tax benefits totaled R$ 400 billion 11

12 Structural issues - FISCAL Primary surplus projected for 2015 (% of GDP) 2 Source: FMI Data Mapper, Gradual Investimentos 1, ,75-1,51-1,19-1, ,83-0,5-0, ,06-2,83-2,58-2, ,

13 Structural issues - FISCAL Gross Debt (% of GDP) (forecast for 2015) Source: FMI, Gradual Investimentos , ,9 65, ,1 50,9 48,4 44,4 43, ,9 32,1 26,5 22,4 20,4 18,1 0 13

14 Structural issues - FISCAL CPI (% YoY) Source: BCB, Gradual Investimentos 20,0% 18,0% 16,0% 14,0% 12,0% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% CPI Administered Services 14

15 Structural issues - FISCAL Nominal interests - Consolidated Public Sector R$ % 9% R$ % R$ % 6% R$ % 4% R$ % R$ % 1% R$ % Accumulated 12 months - R$ (mi) % GDP 15

16 Signs of Adjustment

17 Signs of Adjustment Industry Confidence Index - FGV Consumer Confidence Index - FGV Commerce Confidence Index - FGV Services Confidence Index - FGV 17

18 mar/03 jul/03 nov/03 mar/04 jul/04 nov/04 mar/05 jul/05 nov/05 mar/06 jul/06 nov/06 mar/07 jul/07 nov/07 mar/08 jul/08 nov/08 mar/09 jul/09 nov/09 mar/10 jul/10 nov/10 mar/11 jul/11 nov/11 mar/12 jul/12 nov/12 mar/13 jul/13 nov/13 mar/14 jul/14 nov/14 mar/15 jul/15 nov/15 Signs of Adjustment Average Real Income (% YoY) Source: IBGE, Gradual Investimentos 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% -20,00% Rendimento Médio Real Rendimento Médio Real - com carteira Rendimento Médio Real - sem carteira 18

19 Signs of Adjustment Currencies (index) (100=01/01/2004) Yen Euro Mexican Peso Swiss Franc Brazillian Real 19

20 dez/95 jul/96 fev/97 set/97 abr/98 nov/98 jun/99 jan/00 ago/00 mar/01 out/01 mai/02 dez/02 jul/03 fev/04 set/04 abr/05 nov/05 jun/06 jan/07 ago/07 mar/08 out/08 mai/09 dez/09 jul/10 fev/11 set/11 abr/12 nov/12 jun/13 jan/14 ago/14 mar/15 out/15 Signs of Adjustment Direct Investment in Brazil (US $ mi) (12 months) Source: BCB, Gradual Investimentos R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$ ,00 R$80.000,00 R$60.000,00 R$40.000,00 R$20.000,00 R$- NET Income Outcome 20

21 Cenário - Internacional Monetary War

22 Monetary War Assets of the central banks (US $ billion) $ $ $8.000 $6.000 $4.000 $2.000 $0 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14 jan-15 FED BOJ BCE Total Source: Bloomberg, Gradual Investimentos. 22

23 Monetary War Yield 2 years bonds (%YoY) jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14 jan-15-1 Germany USA Italy Spain Source: Bloomberg, Gradual Investimentos. 23

24 Monetary War Yield 10 years bonds (%YoY) USA Germany Source: Bloomberg, Gradual Investimentos. 24

25 Monetary War PIB chinês (% a.a.) Fonte: Thomson Reuters, Gradual Investimento

26 Monetary War Exportações Chinesas (em US$ bi) Fonte: Thomson Reuters, Gradual Investimentos Exportações (em US$ bi) MM12 26

27 Monetary War Reservas Internacionais - China (em US$ bi) Fonte: Thomson Reuters, Gradual Investimentos

28 Forecasts end of the period

29 29

30 Contacts Economic Department André Perfeito, chief economist Rafael Gonçalves Ouvidoria/SAC:

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