BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ECONOMY STABILIZATION AND LOOKING FOR REFORMS
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1 BRAZIL MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: ECONOMY STABILIZATION AND LOOKING FOR REFORMS 1 Economic Research Department October, 2016
2 PRIMARY SURPLUS AS % OF GDP 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 3,7% 3,2% 3,2% 3,3% 1,9% 2,6% 2,9% 2,2% 1,7% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -0,6% -1,0% -0,1% -2,0% -3,0% -1,9% -2,1% -2,5% * 2017* 2018* 2019* SOURCE: BACEN
3 out/03 abr/04 out/04 abr/05 out/05 abr/06 out/06 abr/07 out/07 abr/08 out/08 abr/09 out/09 abr/10 out/10 abr/11 out/11 abr/12 out/12 abr/13 out/13 abr/14 out/14 abr/15 out/15 abr/16 out/16 CONFIDENCE INDEX INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO EMPRESÁRIO INDUSTRIAL (ICEI) - DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS Média (2003+) ICEI SOURCE: CNI, BRADESCO
4 set/96 mar/97 set/97 mar/98 set/98 mar/99 set/99 mar/00 set/00 mar/01 set/01 mar/02 set/02 mar/03 set/03 mar/04 set/04 mar/05 set/05 mar/06 set/06 mar/07 set/07 mar/08 set/08 mar/09 set/09 mar/10 set/10 mar/11 set/11 mar/12 set/12 mar/13 set/13 mar/14 set/14 mar/15 set/15 mar/16 set/16 estoques invertidos Indicador INVENTORIES LEVEL INDUSTRIAL SECTOR * THE HIGHER THE INDICATOR, THE HIGHER THE INVENTORIES 4 SOURCE: FGV, BRADESCO
5 abr/06 set/06 fev/07 jul/07 dez/07 mai/08 out/08 mar/09 ago/09 jan/10 jun/10 nov/10 abr/11 set/11 fev/12 jul/12 dez/12 mai/13 out/13 mar/14 ago/14 jan/15 jun/15 nov/15 abr/16 set/16 CONFIDENCE CONSUMER INDEX Confiança do Consumidor Fonte: FGV Neutro Elaboração: Bradesco ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS) Set/2005= SOURCE: FGV, BRADESCO
6 ECONOMY IS STILL LANGUISH: AN EXTENDED RECESSION 7,5 7,0 5,0 3,0 1,0 4,4 1,4 3,1 1,1 5,8 3,2 4,0 6,1 5,1 3,9 1,9 3,0 0,1 1,5 3,0-1,0-0,1-3,0-5,0-3,8-3,4 6 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
7 PIB: CONSUMO GDP : CONSUMPTION ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE ,00 6,00 4,00 3,9 4,4 5,3 6,4 6,5 4,5 6,2 4,7 3,5 3,5 2,5 2,00 1,3 1,0,00-2,00-4,00-6,00-4,0-4,4 7 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
8 RETAIL SALES - ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 14,0 13,6 12,2 11,0 9,9 8,0 6,4 6,8 6,6 8,0 5,0 2,0 3,1 3,6 1,5 4,0-1,0-4,0-1,7-7,0-10,0-8,6-8,5 8 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
9 REAL INCOMES ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 5,0 4,0 3,0 4,0 3,2 3,4 3,2 3,7 2,7 4,1 2,7 2,0 1,0 1,6 1,9 1,0 1,2 0,0 0,1-1,0-0,9-2,0-3,0-2,0 9 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
10 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (ANNUAL AVERAGE) 13,0 12,0 12,3 11,9 11,0 11,1 10,0 9,0 8,0 9,6 9,7 8,8 9,3 9,9 10,2 9,8 9,4 9,9 8,9 8,1 8,6 8,3 7,7 7,3 7,2 8,4 7,0 6,8 6,0 10 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
11 PAYROLL (NUMBER OF JOBS) SOURCE: MTE, BRADESCO
12 GDP : INVESTMENTS ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 20,0 17,9 15,0 12,0 12,3 10,0 5,0 0,0 8,5 2,0 6,7 6,7 0,8 5,8 4,5 7,0-5,0-2,1-4,5-10,0-8,0-15,0-14,1-20,0 12 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
13 PIB: AGRO GDP : AGRICULTURAL ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,6 5,8 6,7 5,6 8,4 4,00 2,00 2,0 1,1 3,2 2,1 1,8 2,5 3,5,00-2,00-4,00-3,7-3,1-2,0-6,00 13 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
14 GDP : INDUSTRY ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 12,00 10,00 8,00 6,00 4,00 2,00 8,2 2,0 2,0 6,2 4,1 10,2 4,1 2,2 2,5 4,0,00-2,00-0,7-0,9-4,00-6,00-8,00-4,7-6,2-3,4 14 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
15 GDP: SERVICES ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 7,00 5,00 3,00 5,0 3,7 4,3 5,8 4,8 2,1 5,8 3,4 2,9 2,8 2,5 1,00 0,4 1,0-1,00-3,00-2,7-3,0-5,00 15 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
16 * 2017* 2018* 2019* VARIAÇÃO ANUAL DO PIB DA CONSTRUÇÃO CIVIL Fonte: IBGE Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco GDP : CONSTRUCTION ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 15,0% 13,1% 10,7% 10,0% 5,0% 9,2% 4,9% 7,0% 8,2% 3,2% 4,5% 3,0% 5,5% 7,0% 0,0% 0,3% -5,0% -2,1% -0,9% -3,4% -7,6% -10,0% 16 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
17 dez-04 dez-05 dez-06 dez-07 dez-08 dez-09 dez-10 dez-11 dez-12 dez-13 dez-14 dez-15 dez-16 dez-17 dez-18 dez-19 dez-20 dez-21 DESPITE THE EXPECTED RECOVERY, IT WILL TAKE SOME YEARS TO COME BACK TO BRAZILIAN GDP PEAK LEVEL Contraction since 2014 = 8,6% Forecast Queda acumulada de 8,6% Projeções Focus Bradesco 2016: -3,2% -3.4% 2017: +1,3% +1,5% 2018: +2,3% +3,0% 2019: +2,3% +3,0% 2020+: +2,3% +3,0% 17 SOURCE: IBGE, BCB
18 * 2017* IPCA: CONSUMER PRICES INDEX (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) 14.0% 12.0% 12.5% 10.7% 10.0% 8.9% 9.3% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 6.0% 7.7% 7.6% 5.7% 3.1% 4.5% 5.9% 4.3% 5.9% 6.5% 5.9% 6.4% 6.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.0% 18 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
19 28/02/14 30/03/14 29/04/14 29/05/14 28/06/14 28/07/14 27/08/14 26/09/14 26/10/14 25/11/14 25/12/14 24/01/15 23/02/15 25/03/15 24/04/15 24/05/15 23/06/15 23/07/15 22/08/15 21/09/15 21/10/15 20/11/15 20/12/15 19/01/16 18/02/16 19/03/16 18/04/16 18/05/16 17/06/16 17/07/16 16/08/16 15/09/16 15/10/16 MEDIAN MARKET EXPECTATION FOR THE IPCA IN SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
20 31/03/15 30/04/15 30/05/15 29/06/15 29/07/15 28/08/15 27/09/15 27/10/15 26/11/15 26/12/15 25/01/16 24/02/16 25/03/16 24/04/16 24/05/16 23/06/16 23/07/16 22/08/16 21/09/16 21/10/16 MEDIAN MARKET EXPECTATION FOR THE IPCA IN SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
21 BRAZILIAN CPI (IPCA): MARKET ESTIMATES (AVERAGE) 12.0 % y/y * 2010* 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* SOURCE: FOCUS ESTIMATES: MARKET * EFFECTIVE
22 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) REGULATED PRICES - ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE * 2017* 20.0% 18.0% 18.1% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.3% 3.3% 4.7% 3.1% 6.2% 3.7% 5.3% 6.1% 4.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.0% 22 SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
23 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) DURABLE GOODS PRICES - ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 3.06% 3.61% 3.00% 3.27% 2.20% 2.50% 1.00% 0.94% 0.00% -0.05% -0.01% -1.00% -2.00% -1.75% -1.89% -1.55% -3.00% -4.00% -3.47% * 2017* 23 SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
24 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) SERVICE PRICES - ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE SERVIÇOS ANUAL 12.0% 10.0% 9.79% 8.74% 8.73% 8.0% 7.32% 6.66% 6.77% 8.10% 6.73% 8.02% 8.33% 8.12% 6.70% 6.0% 4.86% 5.54% 5.72% 5.79% 5.20% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% * 2017* 24 SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
25 ALIMENTAÇÃO ANUAL CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) FOOD PRICES - ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 22.0% 20.0% 19.46% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 9.63% 10.77% 11.12% 10.39% 9.86% 12.01% 10.51% 8.0% 7.48% 7.19% 8.48% 8.03% 7.08% 6.0% 4.0% 3.87% 3.17% 2.0% 0.0% 1.99% 1.23% * 2017* 25 SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
26 NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) SOURCE: BCB PRODUCTION: BRADESCO % 13.00% 13.75% 12.75% 11.25% 10.25% 8.75% 9.50% 10.75% 11.75% 12.50% 11.00% 8.50% 7.25% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 11.75% 13.25% 14.25% 13.50% 10.25% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% fev/08 abr/08 jun/08 ago/08 out/08 dez/08 fev/09 abr/09 jun/09 ago/09 out/09 dez/09 fev/10 abr/10 jun/10 ago/10 out/10 dez/10 fev/11 abr/11 jun/11 ago/11 out/11 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 abr/14 jun/14 ago/14 out/14 dez/14 fev/15 abr/15 jun/15 ago/15 out/15 dez/15 fev/16 abr/16 jun/16 ago/16 out/16 dez/16 fev/17 abr/17 jun/17 ago/17 out/17 dez/17
27 17/01/14 14/02/14 14/03/14 11/04/14 09/05/14 06/06/14 04/07/14 01/08/14 29/08/14 26/09/14 24/10/14 21/11/14 19/12/14 16/01/15 13/02/15 13/03/15 10/04/15 08/05/15 05/06/15 03/07/15 31/07/15 28/08/15 25/09/15 23/10/15 20/11/15 18/12/15 15/01/16 12/02/16 11/03/16 08/04/16 06/05/16 03/06/16 01/07/16 29/07/16 26/08/16 23/09/16 21/10/16 BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ TAXA DE CÂMBIO R$/US$ fonte: Bloomberg DECEMBER 2009 R$ 1.74 / US$ DECEMBER 2010 R$ 1.67 / US$ DECEMBER 2011 R$ 1.88 / US$ DECEMBER 2012 R$ 2.04 / US$ DECEMBER 2013 R$ 2.35 / US$ DECEMBER 2014 R$ 2.65 / US$ DECEMBER 2015 R$ 3.96 / US$ DECEMBER 2016 R$ 3.20 / US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO
28 EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
29 ACCUMULATED VARIATION IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF SELECTED CURRENCIES Argentina UK Mexico Egypt Turkey China South Africa Poland Philippines Peru Índia DXY Switzerland Euro Czech Republic Canada Hungary Colombia Pakistan Singapore UAE Russia Korea Thailand Malaysia Taiwan Chile Indonesia New Zealand Australia Japan Brazil 65.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 59.4% 25.8% Last Última update atualização: 21/10/ % 5.0% 7.4% 3.8% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8% 0.4% -5.0% -15.0% -0.1% -2.4% -5.1% -13.9% -25.0% -19.0% 29 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
30 17/01/14 14/02/14 14/03/14 11/04/14 09/05/14 06/06/14 04/07/14 01/08/14 29/08/14 26/09/14 24/10/14 21/11/14 19/12/14 16/01/15 13/02/15 13/03/15 10/04/15 08/05/15 05/06/15 03/07/15 31/07/15 28/08/15 25/09/15 23/10/15 20/11/15 18/12/15 15/01/16 12/02/16 11/03/16 08/04/16 06/05/16 03/06/16 01/07/16 29/07/16 26/08/16 23/09/16 21/10/16 Dólar em relação à cesta DXY. Fonte: Bloomberg. EXCHANGE RATES: BRL/USD & DXY DXY Real SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
31 /11/11 08/01/12 23/02/12 09/04/12 25/05/12 10/07/12 25/08/12 10/10/12 25/11/12 10/01/13 25/02/13 12/04/13 28/05/13 13/07/13 28/08/13 13/10/13 28/11/13 13/01/14 28/02/14 15/04/14 31/05/14 16/07/14 31/08/14 16/10/14 01/12/14 16/01/15 03/03/15 18/04/15 03/06/15 19/07/15 03/09/15 19/10/15 04/12/15 19/01/16 05/03/16 20/04/16 05/06/16 21/07/16 05/09/16 21/10/16 CDS_5 BRL Correlação: 96,5% 5 YEARS CDS AND BRL SOURCE: BLOOMBERG 31
32 32 COMMODITIES EXPORTS (% TOTAL EXPORTS) FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO 55.2% 54.6% 60.8% 59.7% 58.1% 59.8% 62.7% 61.2% 65.7% 67.6% 71.2% 68.7% 68.7% 67.6% 70.7% 68.5% 65.9% 53% 55% 57% 59% 61% 63% 65% 67% 69% 71% fev/01 jun/01 out/01 fev/02 jun/02 out/02 fev/03 jun/03 out/03 fev/04 jun/04 out/04 fev/05 jun/05 out/05 fev/06 jun/06 out/06 fev/07 jun/07 out/07 fev/08 jun/08 out/08 fev/09 jun/09 out/09 fev/10 jun/10 out/10 fev/11 jun/11 out/11 fev/12 jun/12 out/12 fev/13 jun/13 out/13 fev/14 jun/14 out/14 fev/15 jun/15 out/15 fev/16 32
33 BRAZILIAN EXPORTS - % MAIN PARTNERS FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO % 12.2% 6.9% 2.7% 2.5% 1.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 07/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 Argentina China Germany USA Italy Japan
34 BRAZILIAN IMPORTS - % MAIN PARTNERS FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO % 17.8% 6.8% 17.0% 2.8% 2.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 07/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 Argentina China Germany Italy Japan USA
35 BRAZILIAN EXPORTS - % MAIN PRODUCTS (2015) 36.2% 13.3% 7.5% 6.5% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.3% Soybean Iron Ore Crude oil Chicken Soybean meal Coffee Beans Beef Corn Tobacco in leaves Copper ores Pork Cotton Sugar unrefined Pulp Semi products: iron and steel Alloy iron Leather Gold Soybean: oil Airplanes Vehicles Aluminum Auto parts Flat Rolled Plastic Sugar refined Others 35 FONTE: MDIC, BRADESCO
36 (p) 2017 (p) FONTE: FMI OIL PRICES (US$/BARREL) ELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO PETRÓLEO BRENT (NOMINAL, FOB REINO UNIDO) - US$/BARRIL FONTE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
37 (p) 2017 (p) IRON ORE PRICES (US$/TON) FONTE: FMI ELABORAÇÃO E (P) PROJEÇÃO: BRADESCO NÍVEL MÉDIO ANUAL DO MINÉRIO DE FERRO (PREÇO SPOT NO PORTO DE TIANJIN/CHINA, MINÉRIO COM 62% DE TEOR DE FERRO) - US$/TONELADA FONTE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
38 (p) 2017 (p) SOYBEAN PRICES (US$/BUSHEL) FONTE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
39 BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AS % OF GDP 19,000 10,000 1,000-8,000-17,000-26,000-35,000-44,000-53,000-1,811-18,384-23,502-33,416-25,335-8,097 3,760 13, ,261-30,640-3,2% PIB -1,2% PIB -22,191-1,9% PIB -39,277-2,1% PIB -50,220-62,000-58,905-71,000-80,000-75,824-74,218-89,000-98,000-4,3% PIB -107, , , FONTE: BC, BRADESCO
40 * 2017* 2018* FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (USD MILLION) 100,000 88, ,158 86,607 96,895 80,000 60,000 44,579 50,716 69,181 75,075 68,500 71,925 63,000 40,000 20,000 32,995 28,856 28,386 23,226 16,587 10,123 18,161 15,460 19,418 31, FONTE: BC, BRADESCO
41 BRAZIL THAT BRAZILIANS AND FOREIGNERS NEED TO KNOW 41 1 st PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER SUGAR 1st PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER COFFEE 1 st PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER ORANGE JUICE 1 st PRODUCER REGIONAL JETS 2 nd PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER SOYBENS 2 nd PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER CATTLE MEAT 2 nd PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER TOBACCO 2 nd PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER ALCOHOL 2 nd EXPORTER FOODS 2 nd PRODUCER AND 2 nd EXPORTER IRON ORE 3rd PRODUCER AND 1 st EXPORTER POULTRY MEAT 3 rd PRODUCER AND 2 nd EXPORTER CORN 3 rd ELETRIC POWER 3 rd CONSUMER PERSONAL COMPUTER 3 rd PRODUCER FRUITS 3 rd PRODUCER COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT 3 rd INTERNET USERS 3 rd PRODUCER BUSES 3 rd PRODUCER FOOTWEAR 3 rd CONSUMER PERFUMES AND COSMETICS 3 rd PRODUCER BAUXITE 4 th PRODUCER AND 4 th EXPORTER PORK MEAT 4 th PRODUCER BEVERAGES 4 th PRODUCER MILK 4 th PRODUCER CERAMICS COVERINGS 4 th PRODUCER SHIPPING INDUSTRY 4 th PRODUCER PULP 4 th PRODUCER TRUCKS 4 th CONSUMER MOBILE PHONES 4 th ROAD NETWORK EXTENSION 4 th PRODUCER CLOTING 5 th PRODUCER AND 4 th EXPORTER COTTON 5 th PRODUCER AND 7 th EXPORTER ORNAMENT STONES 5 th PRODUCER TEXTILE 5 th PRODUCER COCOA 5 th PRODUCER CEMENT 5 th PRODUCER PAPER 6 th PRODUCER FHARMACEUTICAL 6 th PRODUCER CHEMICAL 7 th CONSUMER MAKET 7 th PRODUCER RICE 7 th PRODUCER AND 4 th SALES CARS 8 th PRODUCER ALUMINIUM 9 th PRODUCER STEEL 11 th PRODUCER HONEY 13 th PRODUCER OIL 15 th WIND ENERGY 15 th PRODUCER WHEAT
42 AGENDA NECESSARY TO INCREASE POTENTIAL GDP GROWTH FISCAL GOVERNANCE AND EXPENDITURE EFFICIENCY INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY PRODUCTIVITY (DOING BUSINESS, TAX REFORM, LABOR REFORM, EDUCATION, TRADE OPENNESS) INFRASTRUCTURE 42
43 DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned. 43 Update: 24 th October, 2016
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