Slowing Women's Labor Force Participation: The Role of Rising Income Inequality

Transcription

1 Slowing Womn's Labor Forc Participation: Th Rol of Rising Incom Inquality Stfania Albansi, FRBNY an CEPR Mará José Praos, USC USC - Octobr 2, 2014 Th viws xprss hr ar thos of th authors an o not ncssarily rct th viws of th Fral Rsrv Bank of Nw York or th Fral Rsrv Systm. 1 / 63

2 Trns in LFP an Wags Slowing fmal participation an convrgnc in wags sinc th mi-1990s in th US. Gnr Wag Gap an Fmal LFP, marri workrs Gnr wag gap Yar Fmal labor forc participation rat Gnr wag gap Fmal labor forc participation rat Gnr wag gap is comput as man wag of mal workrs ovr man wag of fmal workrs for full tim, full yar workrs Th valus ar thr yar moving avrags. Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 2 / 63

3 Trns in LFP an Wags By ucation Phnomnon is mor pronounc for collg womn. Gnr wag gap Gnr Wag Gap an Fmal LFP, marri workrs Collg Yar Fmal labor forc participation rat Gnr wag gap Gnr Wag Gap an Fmal LFP, marri workrs High school or lss Yar Fmal labor forc participation rat Gnr wag gap Fmal labor forc participation rat Gnr wag gap Fmal labor forc participation rat Gnr wag gap is comput as man wag of mal workrs ovr man wag of fmal workrs for full tim, full yar workrs Thr yar moving avrags Gnr wag gap is comput as man wag of mal workrs ovr man wag of fmal workrs for full tim, full yar workrs Thr yar moving avrags Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 3 / 63

4 Trns in LFP an Wags Skill prmium by sx Th growth in th skill prmium has acclrat for mn an slow for womn sinc th mi-1990s, rsulting in a growing ivrgnc Skill Prmium Yar skill prmium mn/skill prmium womn Ratio of Mal to Fmal Skill Prmium all fulltim workrs Collg Prmium, Mals Prmium is comput as man wag of collg workrs ovr man wag of non collg workrs for full tim, full yar workrs Collg Prmium, Fmals Yar Rolling thr yars avrag Ratio of man hourly wags btwn workrs with collg gr an thos without a collg gr, for FT-FY workrs, rgarlss of marital status. Thr yar cntr moving avrags. Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 4 / 63

5 Hypothsis Ris in skill prmium can xplain th lack of convrgnc in participation an wags across gnrs sinc th arly 1990s. Mchanism: Ris in mal arnings gnrats ngativ walth ct on fmal participation an markt hours. Ruc attachmnt to th labor markt, rucs xprinc an arnings for skill womn rlativ to skill mn. Positiv assortativ matching amplis ct on skill womn. Objctiv: Documnt mpirical vinc on participation by ucation an houshol typ, xplor mchanism quantitativly. 5 / 63

6 Hypothsis Ris in skill prmium can xplain both th lack of convrgnc in participation an wags across gnrs sinc th arly 1990s. Prviw of nings: Mchanism can account for larg fraction of lack of convrgnc in fmal participation to mal in for collg womn an womn marri to collg husbans. Mchanism can partially rprouc th lack of convrgnc in fmal wags to mals in an th lowr growth in th skill prmium for womn. 6 / 63

7 Rlat Litratur Thory: Frnanz (2013), Fogli an Vlkamp (2013) Ris in fmal participation u to larning about costs for th houshol. S-shap as larning slows with most womn in th labor forc. Empirical: Blau an Kahn (2013) Intrnational comparison, lack of part tim an accss to aycar. Empirical: Fortin (2013) Evolution of gnr attitus. 7 / 63

8 Outlin Evinc Mol Quantitativ Analysis Ongoing work 8 / 63

9 Evinc

10 Data an Sampl CPS March Supplmnt, , an PSID, Aults ags 25 to 64. Marri (for most of th analysis) Labor forc participation n as: working or looking for work at last 40 wks a yar. 10 / 63

11 Skill Prmium Masuring th Phnomnon 2 Skill prmium, full 9m full yar workrs Skill prmium, mals Skill prmium, fmals Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS Dash lin corrspons to linar trn for , projct out of sampl. 11 / 63

12 Skill Prmium Gnr Wag Gap by Eucation Th acclration in th mal skill prmium post-1995 is also associat with a ris in th gnr wag gap for collg workrs. Skill Prmium Mal/Fmal Wags Mal Fmal HS Coll Avrag Actual Projct Actual-Projct Actual-Projct% Sourc: Authors' calculations from CPS. 12 / 63

13 Labor supply of womn Th slowing of fmal participation is rivn by prim ag marri womn. Th participation of marri mn has rmain stabl. Fmal LFP by Ag Labor forc participation rats LFP Yar Marri womn Marri mn Singl womn Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 13 / 63

14 Masuring th Phnomnon Labor forc participation of marri womn Procur: Estimat probit mol of labor forc participation of marri womn for Us stimat paramtrs to projct fmal labor forc participation from Compar projct an actual sris. 14 / 63

15 Labor supply of marri womn Participation by ucation Labor forc participation of marri womn by ucation lvl, ag ajust Yar High school Collg Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS Dash lin corrspons to participation probit, in an out of sampl. 15 / 63

16 Masuring th Phnomnon Ag-ajust participation by ucation an husban's ucation Th slowown in participation is most pronounc for marri womn with collg an with collg husbans. Marri Womn's Participation HS Coll HS Husb Coll Husb Avrag Actual Projct Actual-Projct Actual-Projct% Sourc: Authors' calculations from CPS. 16 / 63

17 Labor supply of womn Participation by houshol typ, ag-ajust Th slowown in participation has bn gratst for high school an collg womn with collg husbans. Marri Womn's Participation Houshol Typs (M-F) HS-HS C-HS HS-C C-C Avrag Actual Projct Actual-Projct Actual-Projct% Sourc: Authors' calculations from CPS. 17 / 63

18 Distribution of Houshol Typs Th fraction of collg-collg houshols is abov 20% sinc th mi-1990s. Figur : Fraction of houshols by ucation pairs l l l l l l l l l l Houshol typ corrspons to husban-wif ucational attainmnt. Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 18 / 63

19 Labor supply of marri womn Th rol of husban's arnings Marri Womn LFP: Actual vs Projct % iffrnc Quintils of husban s arnings Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS Dash lin corrspons to participation probit, in an out of sampl. Th irnc btwn avrag an th projct valus ovr that prio is positivly rlat to husban's arnings. Alt: Participation by husban's cils 19 / 63

20 Labor supply of marri womn Participation by husban's arnings Th slowown in participation is mor pronounc for womn with husban in th top cil of th mal labor incom istribution, suggsting rol of ngativ incom ct. Marri Womn's Participation Aggrgat Husb <10% Husb 50% Husb> 90% Avrag Actual Projct Actual-Projct Actual-Projct% Sourc: Authors' calculations from CPS. Frt. 20 / 63

21 ag Ngativucation Incom yars Ect gr On an Two grxprc25 Earnr Houshols grxprc Avrag labor arnings of husbans ar signicantly highr in grxprc on-arnr grxprc90 houshols constant Tabl 3: Avrag wag of husban, by houshol typs On-arnr Two-arnr On-arnr hh/ Prio houshols houshols Two-arnr hh No Collg - No Collg % No Coll Husb - Coll Wif % Collg Husb - No Coll Wif % Collg - Collg % No Collg - No Collg % No Coll Husb - Coll Wif % Collg Husb - No Coll Wif % Collg - Collg % Sourc: Authors' calculations from CPS. in on an two-arnr houshols hav bcom lss i rnt in this last prio, whras collg gr mn Rgrssions in two arnr houshols ar furthr apart, in trms of arnings, from thos in on-a houshols now than what thy wr bfor / 63

22 Ngativ Incom Ect Houshol Nt Worth Th corrsponing ris in th isprsion of houshol nt worth sinc th mi-1990s likly also contribut to th ngativ incom ct. Thousan)ollars) 1,600" 1,400" 1,200" 1,000" 800" 600" 400" 200" 0" Nt"Worth"by"Houshol"Euca=on"Typ" 1989" 1992" 1995" 1998" 2001" 2004" 2007" 2010" C,"C" HS"wif,"C"husb" C"wif,"HS"husb" Hs,"HS" Man" : Survy of Consumr Financs Sourc: Survy of Consumr Financs. Figur 16: Houshol Nt Worth 22 / 63

23 Labor Flows PN (xit: participation to non-participation) ow rats incras for all, whil NP (ntry) ow rats clin for womn marri to collg husbans aftr1995. Pattrns by houshol typ: All Houshol Typ Husban's Eucation HS-HS HS-C C-HS C-C HS Coll PN NP Yarly transition rats. Sourc: Authors' calculations from th PSID. 23 / 63

24 Summary Skill prmium for mn riss by 6.3% in Mal/fmal wag ratio riss by 11% for collg workrs Labor forc participation of marri womn in rlativ to pr-1995 trn 12% lowr for collg womn 14% lowr for womn with collg husbans 25% lowr for womn with husbans in th to 10% of th arning istribution Similar bhavior for hours PN ow rats ris, NP rats fall post 1995, spcially for womn with collg an with collg husbans. 24 / 63

25 Quantitativ Analysis

26 Mol Houshol Labor Supply Non-unitary houshols: Houshols compris two marri partnrs of irnt gnr. Partnrs hav inpnnt utility functions. Marriag an ucational attainmnt xognous. No ivorc. Htrognity in iniviual prouctivity. Assortativ matching by ucation bas on mpirical istribution of houshol typs. Intnsiv an xtnsiv labor supply cisions. Ecint markt an hom hours allocation. Wags nognous u to on th job acquisition of human capital. 26 / 63

27 Mol Houshol Problm max ( J c is j,hj is 0,lis j {0,[l,l]},b j+1,kj+1 s 0 j=1 βj s=f,m λs u cj is, lj is ) + hj is s.t. k is j+1 = F (l is j, k is j ) H j = G(h f j, h m j ) s=f,m cis j + qbj+1 i s=f.m W j is lj is + bj i for j = 1, 2,...J s=f,m c is J k s 0 = k s b J H j givn for j = 1,.., J 27 / 63

28 Mol Houshol Problm Inivisibl labor: l is j = { 0 if p is l j = 0 if pj is = 1 Hom hours rquirmnt: H j = G(h f j, h m j ) Hj xognously givn for all j = 1, 2,...J 28 / 63

29 Mol Wags an Human Capital Wags: W is j = θ s w s (1 + ξ s j is )k is j for s = f, m, i = c, hs, for all j = 1, 2,...J 1 x iniviual prouctivity θ s, with gnr spcic istribution gnr spcic baslin wag w f w m skill prmium, ξj s, inicator for collg is human capital volution (Imai an Kan, 2004) [ F (lj is, kj is ) = (1 δ) + A ( lj is ) α ] Bl is j kj is for δ, α [0, 1], A, B > 0 Enognous gnr wag gap an skill prmium u to on th job acquisition of human capital, vn with w s an ξ s j xognous. 29 / 63

30 Optimal Houshol Allocation Parto cint consumption an hom hours allocation. Incom cts: Participation is zro if own prouctivity is sucintly low an non-labor incom is sucintly high. Ris in non-labor incom causs markt hours to rop an vntually participation to go to zro. Non-labor incom is th sum of partnr's labor incom an savings. Gnr wag gap causs wivs' participation an markt hours to b lowr than husbans on avrag, triggring a clin in both, if th skill prmium riss. 30 / 63

31 Calibration Houshol typs (wif-husban): hs hs, hs coll, coll hs, coll coll Four prios: 25-39, 40-54, 55-69, 70+ yo Prouctivity istribution: θ s logn( θ, σ s ) for s = f, m, Stratgy: St most paramtrs bas on inpnnt vinc. St rmaining paramtrs to match 1980 aggrgat participation, labor arnings isprsion by gnr, hom/markt hours ratio. 31 / 63

32 Calibration Functional Forms Utility: u ( cj is, lj is ( + hj is ) = ) 1 σ cj is 1 σ φs ( l is j ) hj is γ s γ s σ, φ s > 0, γ s (0, 1) for s = f, m Hom prouction: G(h f, h m ) = [ψ ( ) f h f ρ + ψ m (h m ) ρ] 1/ρ ρ, ψ s (0, 1) for s = f, m, s ψs = 1 32 / 63

33 Calibration Tabl : Paramtrs calibrat bas on inpnnt vinc Utility Human capital Hom prouction σ 1.1 α 0.22 ψ f 0.5 γ f, γ m 3.82, 3.82 A 0.14 ρ 0.65 λ f, λ m 0.5, 0.5 δ {H 2, H 3} {1.018, 1.031} H 1 β B Tim volution of ξ an w: stimat from ata. 33 / 63

34 Calibration Tabl : Paramtrs calibrat for 1980 to match population momnts Utility Hom Prouction θ istribution φ f t φ m t H 1 σ m σ f Tabl : Data/Mol Comparison 1980 Data Mol Womn Mn Womn Mn Participation Co. var. arnings istribution Markt/hom hours / 63

35 Exprimnt 1: Stay stat ris in th skill prmium Exrcis: Incras ξj s to match actual avrag skill prmium by gnr, all othr qual. Compar 1980 to 1995, as if stay stats. Rsults: larg rop in labor supply of womn with collg husbans, similar magnitu as in ata; larg rop in labor supply of womn in collg-collg houshols, approx. 2/3 of rop in ata; ris in skill prmium for mn largr than for womn, an ris in mal/fmal wag ratio highr for collg than high school, as in ata. 35 / 63

36 Exprimnt 1 Rspons of womn's labor supply Dclin in participation in th mol gratst for high school womn with collg husbans, as in ata. Participation of collg womn with high school husbans riss, contrary to ata. Marri Womn's Participation Houshol Typs HS-HS HS-C C-HS C-C Mol 1980 calibration: skill prmium-actual prcnt chang Data Avrag : actual- pr1995 projction prcnt chang / 63

37 Exprimnt 1 Rspons of womn's labor supply Highr skill prmium rucs participation of womn with collg husbans. Participation lowr both for high school an collg womn. Marri Womn's Participation HS Coll HS Husb Coll Husb Mol 1980 calibration: at skill prmium-actual prcnt chang Data Avrag : actual-projct using pr-1995 growth prcnt chang / 63

38 Exprimnt 1 Rspons of wags by gnr Skill prmium riss mor for mn in th mol as in th ata. Mal/fmal wag ratio riss mor for collg than high school workrs, as in th ata. Skill Prmium Mal/Fmal Wags Mal Fmal HS Coll Mol 1980 calibration: skill prmium-actual prcnt chang Data Avrag : actual- pr1995 projction prcnt chang / 63

39 Exprimnt 2: Cohort simulations Simulat mol vry 5 yars btwn 1965 an 2005, xamin bhavior of cohorts who ar in ach yar throughout thir liftim. Stabl clin in φ f, capturing labor supply forcs (matchs participation growth btwn , projct forwar) w f /w m an w m as in ata, cohort by cohort Skill prmium: : Stabl procss stimat from ata : Nw procss stimat from ata, with highr lvl an highr growth rat. Unanticipat chang in th skill prmium = activ houshols roptimiz in 1995 bas on nw procss. 39 / 63

40 Exprimnt 2 Inputs Skill Prmium 1980 Lvl ξ f ξ m pr 1995 Trn (5 yar growth factor) F M Lvl ξ f ξ m post 1995 Trn (5 yar growth factor) F M / 63

41 Exprimnt 2 Baslin rsults Participation rops most for womn with collg husbans, spcially thos with high school. Participation riss for collg womn with high school husbans, contrary to ata. Marri Womn's Participation, Avrag Houshol Typs HS-HS HS-C C-HS C-C Mol actual pr-1995 projct prcnt chang Data actual projct using pr-1995 growth prcnt chang Constant φ f rsults 41 / 63

42 Exprimnt 2 Baslin rsults Participation rops most for womn with collg husbans, an for high school womn. Marri Womn's Participation, Avrag Husban's ucation Wif's ucation HS C HS C Mol actual - projct pr-1995 prcnt chang Data actual-projct pr-1995 growth prcnt chang Constant φ f rsults 42 / 63

43 Exprimnt 2 Baslin rsults Simulation capturs small fraction of th gnr ivrgnc in th skill prmium an of th slowing convrgnc in wags across gnr for skill workrs. Skill Prmium Mal/Fmal Wags Avrag Mal Fmal HSch Coll Mol actual - projct pr-1995 prcnt chang Data actual - projct pr-1995 growth prcnt chang Constant φ f rsults 43 / 63

44 Summary Flattning participation of marri womn account by a clin in growth an lvl of participation of womn marri to collg an high incom husbans, suggsting rol for incom cts. Quantitativ analysis: Incom cts can account for approx. 2/3 of th clin in participation of womn with collg husbans rlativ to pr-1995 trn for Mol ovr pricts fall in participation of womn in HS-C houshols, os not prict clin in participation of womn in HS-HS an HS-C houshols. Mol partially capturs rlativ ris in skill prmium for mn an in mal/fmal wag ratio for collg workrs. 44 / 63

45 Intrnational Evinc Most OECD countris isplay a ngativ corrlation btwn th growth in inquality an womn's participation Australia Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Canaa Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Franc Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Grmany 4 70 Spain Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Swn Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag UK USA Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Fmal - Ags (LFPR) Top 10%/Avrag Figur : Participation an top 10%/avrag incom ratio. Sourc: OECD 45 / 63

46 Ongoing work Incom tax: incorporat 1993 tax rform. Houshol prouction: allow for ajustmnt in houshol prouction margin (substitut with markt goos). Explor trns in φ vrsus trns in houshol prouction tchnology. Frtility choic. 46 / 63

47 Ongoing Work: Aitional Channls Frtility choic with quality/quantity tra-o Low opportunity cost of aitional chilrn in high incom on arnr houshols = quantity of chilrn may ris in aition to quality. Hypothsis is consistnt with ris in frtility for collg-collg houshols an high incom husban houshols in th mi-1990s. 47 / 63

48 Frtility 48 / 63

49 Frtility Participation by husban's arnings & numbr of chilrn Flattning of participation occurs for womn with an without chilrn, suggsting clin in participation not rivn by highr man for chilrn. Fmal participation rat by husban s arnings prcntils no chilrn at last on chil fmal LF participation rats Yar 10 prcntil 50 prcntil 90 prcntil Graphs by Wif s own chilrn in houshol 49 / 63

50 Back Up Slis

51 Labor supply of marri womn Participation by houshol typ Fmal Labor Forc Participation Rat Fmal Labor Forc Participation Rat Yar Yar lss than collg, both nvr marri, high school h: collg, w: lss than collg h: lss than collg, w: collg collg, both nvr marri, collg Houshol typ corrspons to husban-wif ucational attainmnt. Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 51 / 63

52 Labor supply of marri womn Hours by houshol/husban typ Fmal Labor Markt Hours Fmal Labor Markt Hours by husban s arnings prcntil Yar Yar lss than collg, both h: collg, w: lss than collg collg, both h: lss than collg, w: collg husb. arn. in 10th prc husb. arn. in 90th prc husb. arn. in 50th prc Houshol typ corrspons to husban-wif ucational attainmnt. Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 52 / 63

53 Labor supply of marri womn Hours by ucation Fmal Labor Markt Hours Marri womn Yar high school collg Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 53 / 63

54 Intra-houshol inquality Wif to husban arnings ratio Two arnr houshols whr husban has high school g. Wif to husban arnings ratio Two arnr houshols whr husban has collg g. avrag Y_f/Y_m avrag Y_f/Y_m Yar Yar Lss than collg wif Collg wif Lss than collg wif Collg wif Sourc: March CPS Not: th ratio of wif to husban's arnings was comput for houshol whr both partnrs work for at last 45 wks that yar, an ach arn at last $5,000 (constant 2005 USD) 54 / 63

55 Earnings isprsion by gnr Earnings isprsion, 90prc/50prc full tim, full yar workrs Yar Earnings isprsion, 50prc/10prc full tim, full yar workrs Yar Mals Fmals Mals Fmals Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 55 / 63

56 Labor supply of mn Participation of marri mn has rmain stabl. Fmal LFP Mal Labor Forc Participation Rat Yar all mn marri mn singl (nvr marri) mn Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 56 / 63

57 Labor Supply of Marri Womn Participation has attn only for prim ag marri womn. Fmal LFP LFP of marri womn by ag Labor Forc Participation Rat Yar y o y o y o y o Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 57 / 63

58 Labor supply of marri womn Participation by husban's arnings Actual vs Projct 10th prcntil 50th prcntil th prcntil Yar LFP, actual LFP, prict Graphs by Husban s arn. prcntil Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS Dash lin corrspons to participation probit, in an out of sampl. 58 / 63

59 Labor supply of marri womn Participation by husban's arnings an numbr of chilrn LFP by husban Fmal participation rat by husban s arnings prcntils no chilrn at last on chil fmal LF participation rats Graphs by Wif s own chilrn in houshol Yar 10 prcntil 50 prcntil 90 prcntil Sourc: March Supplmnt of CPS 59 / 63

60 Ngativ Incom Ect Strong ngativ ct of husban's incom on participation. Two arnrs Cof. Robust St. Err. [95% Conf. Intrval] ag uc_yars collg prc prc prc prc collgxpr collgxpr~ collgxpr collgxpr constant Sourc: Authors' calculations from CPS. 60 / 63

61 Exprimnt 2 Constant φ f rsults Baslin Rsults Participation rops most for womn marri to collg husbans, spcially thos with high school. But participation riss for collg womn with high school husbans, contrary to ata. Marri Womn's Participation, Avrag Houshol Typs HS-HS HS-C C-HS C-C Mol actual skill prmium pr-1995 projct skill prmium prcnt chang Data actual projct using pr-1995 growth prcnt chang / 63

62 Exprimnt 2 Constant φ f rsults Participation rops most for womn with collg husbans an for womn with collg. Mol Marri Womn's Participation, Avrag Husban's ucation Wif's ucation HS C HS C actual skill prmium pr-1995 projct skill prmium prcnt chang Data actual-projct using pr-1995 growth prcnt chang / 63

63 Exprimnt 2 Constant φ f rsults Simulation capturs th gnr ivrgnc in th skill prmium. It os not captur th slowing convrgnc in wags across gnr for skill workrs, u to th strong ris in participation an hours of collg womn with high school husbans. Skill Prmium Mal/Fmal Wags Avrag Mal Fmal HS Coll Mol actual skill prmium pr-1995 projct skill prmium prcnt chang Data actual-projct using pr-1995 growth prcnt chang Baslin Rsults 63 / 63