ENERGY DEPLETION, CARBON DAMAGE AND GENUINE PRODUCTIVITY OF CHINA S PROVINCES: A MRIO ACCOUNTING

Transcription

1 NRGY DPLTION, CARBON DAMAG AND GNUIN PRODUCTIVITY OF CHINA S PROVINCS: A MRIO ACCOUNTING Yuning Gao School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua University

2 1. XPANDING TH MASUR OF WALTH System of Integrated nvironmental and conomic Accounting (SA) by UN (1993,23) was officially adopted by UNSTA(212) as appended Account to SNA Social Matrix Including Resources and nvironment of Atkinson, Hamilton and Pearce et.al. (1997) was developed as Genuine Domestic Saving (GDS) by World Bank (1997, 23, 26, 211)

3 Production Factors Institutions Saving Production Factors Institutions Saving RoW Resources nvironment Totals NDP C I X NDP NRP NP δk Sg nr σ.e Total disposition of goods and services Net disposition of goods and services Disposition of welfare Tot. disposition of saving (investment finance) Rest of World M (X-M) Total disposition to rest of world Resources n.g Gross Resource Product nvironment PB.B σ.d Gross nvironmental Product Totals Total supply of humanmade goods and services Net supply of humanmade goods and services Supply of welfare (MW) Total suppl y of savin g Total sup ply to rest of worl d Total supply of resources Total supply of environme ntal benefits

4 BASIC CONCPTS Genuine Domestic Saving Traditional Net Saving = GNP-C-δK nergy Depletions = Marginal nergy Rental Rate * Net nergy xtraction n(r-g) (Carbon) mission Costs = Marginal Social Cost * Net (Carbon) mission σ(e-d) +m Natural Capital Lost

5 MARGINAL RNTAL RAT Marginal nergy Rental Rate equals the present value of stocks of the rent (production volume * [(unit price-unit cost)/unit price]) of main energy sources We chose to cap exhaustion time at 25 years for all the energy sources and countries Marginal Social Cost of carbon dioxide damage is estimated to be $2 per ton of carbon (in 1995 U.S. dollars)

6 CHINA S DPLTIONS AND DAMAG (NATURAL CAPITAL LOST) 25 2 carbon dioxide damage (% of GDP) 15 energy depletion (% of GDP) 1 5

7 CHINA S GNUIN NT SAVING RAT Gross Savings Net National Savings Adjust net savings

8 2. DIRCT AND INDIRCT DCOMPOSITION OF NATURAL CAPITAL LOST nergy Depletion: D i n i i n i D i D i ( n n n) i j CO 2 Damage for all sectors CO 2 mission= Consumption of Fossil Fuel Carbon mission Factor (.67) Fraction of Carbon Oxidized For Non-metal Mineral Products only: Production of Cement Processing mission Factor (.367)

9 PROVINCIAL DPLTIONS AND DAMAG Max AV Min Max (ex. Shanxi) 2 1

10 INDIRCT RLATION Main issue: productivity analysis needs time series inter-regional IO table Multi Regional IO table 1997, 22, 27 (8 regions, 17 sectors) and 2, 25, 21 extended table from Meng (214) Interpolated to time series multi regional IO table by RAS methods

11 TH INDIRCT DCOMPOSITION OF NATURAL CAPITAL LOST The decomposition of natural capital lost D happens first between the blocks of intermediate inputs and final use and then through the intermediate input matrix D out = lim i A T i D + i l=1 C A T l 1 D = C I A T 1 D Hereby C is a diagonal matrix of ratio of final use share C = diag(1 i a ji )

12 PROVINTIAL LVL NATURAL CAPITAL LOSS Direct Decomposed Indirect Decomposed

13 INTR-PROVINCIAL TRANSFR OF NATURAL CAPITAL LOSS (INDIRCT) Other "Importers" Shaanxi Guangdong Shandong Zhejiang Other "xporters" Shanxi Hebei

14 3. RLATD DFINITIONS Genuine Value Added (Output) Genuine Capital Formation Genuine Capital Stock (Input) +m

15 Max AV Min Min (ex. Shanxi) Max Mean Min Direct Indirect Genuine Regional Value Added Max Mean Min Max AV Min Direct Indirect Genuine Regional Capital Formation Max AV Min Max Mean Min Direct Indirect Genuine Regional Capital Stock

16 4. PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS Divisia Productivity Index The adjustment on the operating surplus will also change the labor output elasticity to α = α 1 ρ α is the original labor output elasticity ρ is the proportion of resource depletion and environment damage in original value added A Y L ( 1 ) K

17 DTRMINANTS OF PRODUCTIVITY GAP Which means the productivity gap has the opposite sign with the first order difference of Natural Capital Loss (θ)

18 AVRAG TRADITIONAL / GNUIN PRODUCTIVITY DIFFRNC Level (lhs) Traditional Genuine (Direct) Genuine (Indirect) Gap (rhs)

19 PROVINCIAL TFP GROWTH ( ) Genuine TFP Genuine (Direct) Guangxi 6. Genuine TFP Genuine (Direct) Genuine (Indirect) Shanxi Genuine (Indirect) 2. Heilongjiang Tradisional TFP Genuine TFP Guangxi Tradisional TFP Shanxi Heilongjiang Genuine (Direct) Genuine (Indirect) Tradisional TFP

20 CONCLUSIONS The natural resource depletion and carbon damage cost vary between 5 to 2 per cent of China s provincial and up to 3 per cent (by 27) of fixed capital stock on average Transfer of national capital lost between resource supplier and advanced costal provinces is quite obvious and quite consistent under two different multi regional IO method They also lead to a decline slowdown of the productivity growth up to 1 per cent under direct approach in early 198s while under indirect approach recently.