ONS 2013 mid-year population estimates

Transcription

1 ONS 2013 mid-year population estimates June 2014 Key findings London s population is estimated to have grown by 108 thousand between mid-2012 and mid-2013 to reach 8.42 million usual residents. Annual births saw their biggest year-on-year drop since the 1970s, falling from 134 thousand to 131 thousand. International flows in and out of London fell to their lowest level for a number of years, but net international migration rose slightly on the previous year to 80 thousand. Domestic migration into London fell by seven thousand compared to the previous year, helping net domestic outflows reach their highest level since the financial crisis at 55 thousand over the year. Natural change accounted for 83 thousand of the overall population growth and migration for 24 thousand. Introduction On 26 th June 2013, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released their 2013 mid-year population estimates (MYE). This Intelligence Unit Update examines the results for London, comparing with results from recent rounds of ONS projections and the GLA s own 2013-round projections. Though superseded by the 2012-based projection, ONS s 2011-based interim projection is included for comparison because it underpins the Department of Communities and Local Government s current household projections. Note on accuracy When interpreting these results, the reader should be aware of the levels of accuracy of different aspects of the data. Data is released by ONS and replicated here at unit-level; however, this precision should not be mistaken for a declaration of accuracy to that level. Estimates of birth and death data are generally accurate and users can expect the estimates to closely represent actual occurrences. However, estimates of population numbers and migration flows are acknowledged to have historically deviated significantly from actuals and it is normal for multiple revisions to these data to take place over the years as improved evidence becomes available. Note on conventions Birth, death and migration data referred to throughout this report are always for periods between consecutive mid-years. However, to simplify the narrative, the data for, e.g., mid-2012 to mid-2013 will be referred to as GLA Intelligence 1

2 Total population Figure 1 shows London s projected and estimated population. London s population continued to grow strongly over the year, with the 2013 mid-year estimates giving a total population of 8,416,535; up over 108 thousand from the previous year. This estimated population was lower than that projected by current ONS and GLA projections. The most recent, 2012-based, ONS subnational population projection (SNPP) came closest to the estimate with a projected 2013 population of 8,418,289 (an increase of 110 thousand in the year). Both the based SNPP (8,459,567, 127 thousand) and GLA Central Trend (8,440,130, 111 thousand [starting from a modified 2011 base]) gave higher total population and growth over the year than shown in these estimates. Figure 1: Total population, London, Population Millions Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2012-based; ONS 2011 mid-year estimates; ONS 2012 mid-year estimates; ONS 2013 midyear estimates GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 based (interim) ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2011 MYE 2012 MYE 2013 Population by local authority Table 1 compares the 2012 and 2013 MYE populations for each London local authority with results from several sets of projections: the GLA Central Trend and Capped Household Size SHLAA projections, and the and 2012-based SNPP. The table shows that 50 thousand of the total growth occurred in Inner London and 58 thousand in Outer London. Tower Hamlets saw the largest growth of any local authority, with an increase of almost ten thousand over the year. Hackney, Barnet, and Hillingdon all saw growth of over five thousand in the same period. Two boroughs, Hammersmith and Kensington and Chelsea, saw falls in population. GLA Intelligence 2

3 Table 1: Total population, local authority, 2012 and 2013 MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Trendbased Central GLA Capped SHLAA 2013 ONS SNPP 2011-based ONS SNPP 2012-based Camden 224, , , , , ,255 Kensington & Chelsea 155, , , , , ,680 Westminster 223, , , , , ,946 City of London 7,604 7,648 7,993 7,993 8,614 7,849 Central 612, , , , , ,731 Hackney 252, , , , , ,707 Hammersmith & Fulham 179, , , , , ,693 Haringey 258, , , , , ,472 Islington 211, , , , , ,482 Lambeth 310, , , , , ,020 Lewisham 281, , , , , ,634 Newham 314, , , , , ,657 Southwark 293, , , , , ,955 Tower Hamlets 263, , , , , ,821 Wandsworth 308, , , , , ,072 Rest of Inner 2,672,613 2,715,636 2,721,243 2,729,444 2,717,570 2,711,512 Inner 3,284,967 3,335,438 3,339,936 3,350,026 3,346,646 3,330,243 Barking & Dagenham 190, , , , , ,434 Barnet 363, , , , , ,821 Bexley 234, , , , , ,276 Brent 314, , , , , ,166 Bromley 314, , , , , ,083 Croydon 368, , , , , ,709 Ealing 340, , , , , ,080 Enfield 317, , , , , ,956 Greenwich 260, , , , , ,960 Harrow 242, , , , , ,045 Havering 239, , , , , ,969 Hillingdon 281, , , , , ,406 Hounslow 259, , , , , ,447 Kingston upon Thames 163, , , , , ,811 Merton 202, , , , , ,864 Redbridge 284, , , , , ,755 Richmond upon Thames 189, , , , , ,551 Sutton 193, , , , , ,130 Waltham Forest 262, , , , , ,583 Outer 5,023,402 5,081,097 5,100,194 5,089,979 5,112,921 5,088,046 Total 8,308,369 8,416,535 8,440,130 8,440,005 8,459,567 8,418,289 Source: ONS 2012 and 2013 mid-year estimates; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; GLA capped SHLAA population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 3

4 Births, deaths and natural change Births Figure 2 shows estimated and projected births in London. Both GLA and ONS projected the annual number of births to continue rising until at least 2016, reaching at least 139 thousand (GLA). However, the 2013 mid-year estimates show that the number of births fell to 131,011 from over 134 thousand the previous year. This is the largest year-on-year fall in London s annual births since the 1970s and a change in what has been an upward trend throughout the 2000s (bar a pause during ). Figure 2: Births, London, , ,000 Births 130, , , ,000 Past births GLA Central GLA Central updated fertility ONS SNPP 2011 based ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Table 2 shows birth estimates by local authority for 2012 and 2013, as well as projected births for 2013 from GLA and ONS projections. 26 of the 33 authorities saw a reduction in births from the previous year, with the biggest falls occurring in Barnet (364), Camden (224), Wandsworth (209), and Newham (207). The only significant rises in births occurred in Tower Hamlets (95), Harrow (90), Barking and Dagenham (69), and Hackney (62). GLA Intelligence 4

5 Table 2: Births, local authority, 2012 and MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Trendbased Central ONS SNPP 2011-based ONS SNPP 2012-based Camden ,861 2,971 3,150 3,165 Kensington & Chelsea ,909 1,977 2,517 2,143 Westminster ,832 2,973 2,820 3,010 City of London Central 8,213 7,673 7,974 8,550 8,401 Hackney ,507 4,458 5,630 4,725 Hammersmith & Fulham ,599 2,626 3,331 2,750 Haringey ,150 4,160 5,001 4,302 Islington ,945 2,963 3,367 3,121 Lambeth ,645 4,797 5,744 5,105 Lewisham ,951 5,050 5,418 5,018 Newham ,260 6,545 7,889 6,567 Southwark ,908 5,100 5,668 5,256 Tower Hamlets ,805 4,823 5,119 4,829 Wandsworth ,269 5,490 5,831 5,630 Rest of Inner 45,752 45,039 46,012 52,996 47,303 Inner 53,965 52,712 53,987 61,545 55,703 Barking & Dagenham ,866 3,962 4,079 3,757 Barnet ,286 5,703 6,083 5,576 Bexley ,972 3,145 3,262 3,126 Brent ,170 5,431 6,493 5,240 Bromley ,981 4,138 4,164 4,104 Croydon ,747 6,017 6,220 5,592 Ealing ,687 5,823 6,518 5,683 Enfield ,966 5,094 5,801 5,115 Greenwich ,564 4,635 5,267 4,665 Harrow ,620 3,630 3,742 3,452 Havering ,926 2,966 3,019 2,884 Hillingdon ,390 4,609 4,545 4,429 Hounslow ,512 4,723 4,874 4,482 Kingston upon Thames ,213 2,338 2,323 2,346 Merton ,474 3,499 3,577 3,501 Redbridge ,706 4,917 4,791 4,553 Richmond upon Thames ,826 2,924 3,050 2,934 Sutton ,639 2,776 2,757 2,734 Waltham Forest ,754 4,934 5,738 4,813 Outer 80,072 78,299 81,263 86,304 78,985 Total 134, , , , ,689 Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2012 and 2013; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational populations projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 5

6 Deaths Figure 3 shows estimated and projected annual deaths in London. The 2013 MYE showed the second consecutive rise in deaths after a long run of falling numbers, increasing to 48 thousand from 47 thousand in This rise was less than that projected by both current GLA and ONS projections. Figure 3: Deaths, London ,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 Deaths 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000 42,000 40, Past deaths GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 based ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates GLA Intelligence 6

7 Natural change Natural change, the difference between births and deaths, saw a fall in London from 86 thousand in 2012 to 83 thousand in 2013, marking the end of a decade-long run of increases. This fall arises from the combination of a decrease in the number of births and an increase in deaths. Figure 4: Natural change, London, , ,000 90,000 atural change 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40, Past natural change GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 based ONS SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim); ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates GLA Intelligence 7

8 Migration International migration Estimated international migration, both to and from London, fell in comparison to the 2012 estimates. The number of in-migrants fell from 176 thousand to 170 thousand (Figure 5); a drop of over 6,300 and a level lower than that seen at any point in the last decade. Out-migrants (Figure 6) also fell, from over 107 thousand to 90 thousand; a drop of almost 17 thousand. This was the lowest estimated outflow since Net international migration (Figure 7) rose from 69 thousand in 2012 to 80 thousand in Figure 5: International in-migration flows, London, Flow 230, , , , , , , , , , Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based SNPP 2011 based (interim) MYE 2013 GLA Intelligence 8

9 Figure 6: International out-migration flows, London, , , ,000 Flow 110, ,000 90,000 80, Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2011 based (interim) SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 GLA Intelligence 9

10 Figure 7: International net migration flows, London, , , ,000 Net flow 90,000 80,000 70,000 60, Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational population projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based; ONS mid-year estimates Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 SNPP 2011 based (interim) Table 3 shows net international migration estimates by local authority for 2012 and 2013, as well as projected net flows for 2013 from GLA and ONS projections. This shows a small (250 person) fall in net inflow to Outer London and a large (11 thousand) rise in net inflow to Inner London. The biggest change in estimate from 2012 to 2013 was in Hammersmith & Fulham, where a 2,500 net outflow became a small inflow. Tower Hamlets and Westminster saw increases in net inflows of almost two thousand each. Greenwich, Hillingdon and Harrow saw the largest reductions of net inflows at 749, 666, and 541 respectively. GLA Intelligence 10

11 Table 3: Net international migration, local authority, 2012 and MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Central ONS SNPP 2011 ONS SNPP 2012 Camden 5, ,213 3,319 3,464 Kensington & Chelsea -1, Westminster 5, ,204 1,841 2,445 City of London Central 9,683 12,313 7,001 4,879 5,305 Hackney 1, ,531 2,026 1,112 Hammersmith & Fulham -2, ,505 Haringey 3, ,363 4,544 3,747 Islington 4, ,675 3,067 3,150 Lambeth 2, ,043 3,220 1,935 Lewisham 2, ,193 2,902 2,053 Newham 6, ,930 11,728 9,749 Southwark 3, ,250 6,378 3,594 Tower Hamlets 5, ,311 5,321 4,240 Wandsworth -1, ,247-1,093 Rest of Inner 26,077 34,251 32,534 40,497 26,982 Inner 35,760 46,564 39,536 45,376 32,287 Barking & Dagenham 1, ,234 2,535 1,943 Barnet 3, ,586 4,006 3,421 Bexley Brent 2, ,493 7,223 4,281 Bromley Croydon 1, ,672 2,064 1,708 Ealing 1, ,868 4,396 2,556 Enfield 1, ,796 3,150 2,548 Greenwich 2, ,378 2,334 2,302 Harrow 1, ,229 2,826 2,049 Havering Hillingdon 3, ,884 2,698 2,596 Hounslow 2, ,649 4,506 3,546 Kingston upon Thames 2, ,939 2,041 1,929 Merton ,113 2, Redbridge 2, ,053 2,392 2,420 Richmond upon Thames Sutton Waltham Forest 3, ,683 4,046 2,976 Outer 33,204 32,954 40,518 49,588 36,984 Total 68,964 79,518 80,054 94,964 69,271 Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2012 and 2013; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational populations projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 11

12 Internal migration Out-migration from London to other parts of the UK (Figure 9) fell slightly, from 255 thousand in 2012 to 252 thousand in 2013; a drop of 3,500. This fall in outflows was more than matched by a larger reduction in domestic in-migration (Figure 8) over the same period, with flows falling from 107 thousand to 91 thousand. Net domestic outflows from London (Figure 10) rose from 51 thousand in 2012 to 55 thousand in Figure 8: Internal in-migration flows, London, , , , ,000 Internal flows 190, , , , , , , Past ONS data GLA Central MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS 2013 mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows ( ) GLA Intelligence 12

13 Figure 9: Internal out-migration flows, London, , , ,000 Internal flows 240, , , , , Past ONS data GLA Central MYE 2013 Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS 2013 mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows ( ) GLA Intelligence 13

14 Figure 10: Net internal migration, London, ,000 40,000 Net flow 60,000 80, , ,000 Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 SNPP 2011 based (interim) Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS 2013 mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows ( ) Table 4 shows net internal migration estimates by local authority for 2012 and 2013, as well as projected net flows for 2013 from GLA and ONS projections. The biggest changes from 2012 were seen in Westminster and Lambeth which saw increases in net outflows of 3,136 and 2,017 respectively. Bexley saw an increase in net inflow of 1,109 and Kensington & Chelsea and Redbridge saw reductions in their net outflows of 980 and 869. GLA Intelligence 14

15 Table 4: Net internal migration, local authority, 2012 and ONS SNPP MYE 2012 MYE 2013 GLA Central 2011 ONS SNPP 2012 Camden Kensington & Chelsea Westminster City of London Central -7,794-9, ,579 Hackney Hammersmith & Fulham Haringey Islington Lambeth Lewisham Newham Southwark Tower Hamlets Wandsworth Rest of Inner -22,808-24, ,618-23,823 Inner -30,602-34, ,210-28,402 Barking & Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Kingston upon Thames Merton Redbridge Richmond upon Thames Sutton Waltham Forest Outer -21,057-20,940-18,343-27,548-17,247 Total -51,659-55,027-46,418-68,758-45,649 Source: ONS mid-year estimates 2012 and 2013; GLA trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS subnational populations projections 2011-based (interim) and 2012-based GLA Intelligence 15

16 Total net migration and churn Total net migration (Figure 11) rose slightly on the 2012 figure, up to 24 thousand from 17 thousand, but remains significantly lower than the recent highs seen since the financial crisis. Total migration churn (Figure 12, the sum of in and out gross flows) stood at 709 thousand for the year, the lowest level seen since 2002 and down ten percent on the high point of Figure 11: Total net migration, London, ,000 60,000 40,000 Net flow 20, ,000 40,000 Past ONS data GLA Central SNPP 2012 based MYE 2013 SNPP 2011 based (interim) Source: GLA 2013 round trend-based Central variant population projections; ONS mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows ( ) GLA Intelligence 16

17 Figure 12: Migration churn, London, , , , ,000 Migration churn 500, , , , , Domestic churn International churn Total churn ONS mid-year estimates; ONS internal migration flows ( ) GLA Intelligence 17

18 Glossary Central London Consists of four authorities: Camden, Kensington & Chelsea, Westminster, and the City of London. Rest of Inner London Consists of ten authorities: Hackney, Hammersmith & Fulham, Haringey, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Wandsworth. Inner London Consists of the 14 authorities which make up of Central London and the Rest of Inner London. Outer London Consists of 19 authorities: Barking & Dagenham, Barnet, Bexley, Brent, Bromley, Croydon, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Kingston upon Thames, Merton, Redbridge, Richmond upon Thames, Sutton, and Waltham Forest. For more information please contact Monica Li, GLA Intelligence Greater London Authority, City Hall, The Queen s Walk, More London, London SE1 2AA Tel: monica.li@london.gov.uk GLA Intelligence 18 Copyright Greater London Authority, 2014