ASSESSMENT OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL MAPPING FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIA MOHAMMAD RAFIQUL ISLAM

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1 ASSESSMENT OF WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL MAPPING FOR PENINSULAR MALAYSIA MOHAMMAD RAFIQUL ISLAM DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ENGINEERING SCIENCE FACULTY OF ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA KUALA LUMPUR 2011

2 ORIGINAL LITERARY WORK DECLARATION Nm of th cndidt: Mohmmd Rfiql Islm (I.C/Pssport No. Rgistrtion/Mtric No: KGA Nm of th Dgr: Mstr of Enginring Scinc (M.Eng.Sc) Titl of Projct Ppr/ Rsrch Rport/ Dissrttion / Thsis ( this work ): Assssmnt of Wind Enrgy Potntil Mpping for Pninslr Mlysi Fild of Stdy: Enrgy I do solmnly nd sincrly dclr tht: (1) I m th sol thor /writr of this work; (2) This work is originl; (3) Any s of ny work in which copyright xists ws don by wy of fir dlings nd ny xprt or xtrct from, or rfrnc to or rprodction of ny copyright work hs bn disclosd xprssly nd sfficintly nd th titl of th Work nd its thorship hs bn cknowldgd in this Work; (4) I do not hv ny ctl knowldg nor do I oght rsonbly to know tht th mking of this work constitts n infringmnt of ny copyright work; (5) I, hrby ssign ll nd vry rights in th copyrights to this Work to th Univrsity of Mly ( UM), who hncforth shll b ownr of th copyright in this Work nd tht ny rprodction or s in ny form or by ny mns whtsovr is prohibitd withot th writtn consnt of UM hving bn first hd nd obtind ctl knowldg; (6) I m flly wr tht if in th cors of mking this Work I hv infringd ny copyright whthr intrntionlly or othrwis, I my b sbjct to lgl ction or ny othr ction s my b dtrmind by UM. Cndidt s Signtr Dt: Sbscribd nd solmnly dclrd bfor, Witnss Signtr Dt: Nm: Dsigntion: ii

3 ABSTRACT Wind nrgy gnrtion is growing rpidly worldwid nd will contin to do so for th forsbl ftr. In this stdy, th most ccptd 2-prmtr Wibll distribtion modl hs bn pplid for ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility. Th wind dirctions hv bn lso idntifid sing th WRPLOT Viw softwr. Th Gogrphicl Informtion Systm (GIS), ArcGIS 9.3 softwr, hs bn pplid to prsnt th prdictd monthly nd yrly mn wind spd in th form of contor mps. Th wind spd dt of 15 sttions hs bn collctd from th Mlysin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt ovr th priod of Bsd on th xprimntl dt, it is fond tht th nmricl vls of both Wibll prmtrs (k nd c) for Pninslr Mlysi vry ovr wid rng. It is fond tht th dytim, from 8 m to 6 pm, is windy for ll th yrs, whil th night tim is rltivly clm. Most of th monthly mn wind spd vls r btwn 1.5 m/s to 4.5 m/s, bt som r ovr 4.5 m/s nd fw r ndr 1.5 m/s. Th mn wind spds for ll th yrs r lowr thn 4.5 m/s nd th rng of th yrly mn wind spd vls is from 0.90 to 4.06 m/s. It is fond tht th yrly mn wind spd t Mrsing is 4.06 m/s in 2008 nd 4.01 m/s in 2009, which is cpbl of prodcing commrcil wind nrgy by sing crrnt tchnology. Th monthly highst vl of wind powr dnsity ws fond to b W/m 2 t Mrsing in nry, 2009 nd th lowst vl of wind powr dnsity ws 1.3 W/m 2 in Novmbr 2008 t Bt Embn. Th vrg vl of th monthly wind powr dnsity ws stimtd W/m 2. Th rng of th vls of monthly wind nrgy dnsity ws fond to b btwn to 1962 kwh/m 2 /yr whrs th vrg wind nrgy dnsity ws fond to b kwh/m 2 /yr. iii

4 Mrsing is th most windy plc with th lrgst scl prmtr c, nd its most frqnt wind spd is 3.5 m/s. Th mximm prcntg of rror btwn Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis occr t 3 m/s or mor thn 3 m/s is rond 20%. From cmltiv distribtion fnction, it is fond tht Mrsing will hv th highst oprting possibility of 67% (rond 5789 hors pr yr). For ll th sits, th prviling winds from th most probbl wind dirctions on th prcntg rnging from 15 to 41% nd th wind spds lss thn 3 m/s r rnging from %. Th gogrphicl prmtrs (ltitd, longitd, nd ltitd), nd months of th yr wr sd s inpt dt, whil th monthly nd yrly mn wind spds wr fond s th otpt. It is sn tht th sothrn prt of Pninslr Mlysi is windir thn tht of th othr prts in Pninslr Mlysi. Th prdictd wind spd vls r givn in th form of monthly nd yrly mps, which cn b sily sd for ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntil for diffrnt loctions within Pninslr Mlysi. iv

5 ABSTRAK Pnjnn tng ngin kiri brkmbng pst di slrh dni dn kn trs bkkmbng di ms kn dtng. Dlm kjin ini, modl pngdrn 2-prmtr Wibll tlh dilksnkn ntk pnilin potnsi tng ngin. Arh ngin tlh jg diknlpsti mnggnkn prisin WRPLOT viw. Prisin sistm Mklmt Gogrfi (SIG), ArcGIS 9.3, tlh dipliksikn ntk mnnjkkn rmln prt kljn ngin blnn dn thnn dlm bntk pt kontr. Dt kljn ngin dri 15 stsn tlh dikmplkn dripd btn Mtorologi Mlysi (MMD) slm tmpoh Brdsrkn dt ksprimn, didpti bhw nili brngk kd prmtr Wibll (k dn c) ntk Smnnjng Mlysi dlh brbz-bz dlm jlt yng bsr. Hl ini ditmi bhw pd sing hri, 08:00-6:00, kdn brngin ntk sm psingn thn, sdngkn pd mlm hri kdn scrvltif tnng. Sbhgin bsr nili prt kljn ngin blnn dlh ntr 1.5 m/s hingg 4.5 m/s, nmn d jg yng lbih dri 4.5 m/s dn bbrp brd di bwh 1.5 m/s. Prt kljn ngin ntk sm thn lbih rndh dripd 4.5 m/s dn jlt nili prt kljn ngin thnn dlh m/s. Didpti bhw prt kljn ngin thnn di Mrsing dlh 4.06 m/s pd thn 2008 dn 4.01 m/s pd thn 2009, yng mmp mnghsilkn tng ngin komrsil dngn mnggnkn tknologi ms kini. Nili trtinggi blnn ktmptn tng ngin dlh W/m 2 di Mrsing pd bln nri thn 2009 dn nili trndh ktmptn tng ngin dlh 1.3 W/m 2 pd bln Novmbr thn 2008 di Bt Embn. Nili prt ktmptn tng ngin blnn dinggrkn W/m 2. lt nili ktmptn tng ngin blnn ditmi ntr kwh/m 2 /thn dn ktmptn prt tng ngin dlh kwh/m 2 /thn. v

6 Mrsing mrpkn tmpt yng pling 'brngin' dngn skl trbsr prmtr c, dn kljn ngin pling sring dlh 3.5 m/s. Prtsn mksimm rlt ntr frknsi Wibll dn frknsi kljn ngin yng dimti trjdi pd 3.0 m/s t lbih dri 3.0 m/s dlh skitr 20%. Dri fngsi drn kmltif, kit mndpti bhw Mrsing kn mmpnyi kmngkinn oprsi trtinggi 67% (skitr 5789 jm sthn). Untk sm kwsn kjin, ngin yng brlk dri rh ngin yng pling mngkin dngn prtsn ntr 15 hingg 41% dn kljn ngin krng dri 3.0 m/s dlh brkisr %. Prmtr gogrfi (lintng, bjr, dn ktinggin), dn bln dlm sthn yng dignkn sbgi dt inpt, sdngkn prt kljn ngin blnn dn thnn rt-rt dignkn sbgi otpt dri rngkin. Didpti bhw bhgin sltn Smnnjng Mlysi dlh lbih brngin dibndingkn dngn bhgin lin. Nili prt kljn ngin difnjkkn dlm bntk pt blnn dn thnn, yng dpt dignkn dngn mdh ntk pnilin potnsi tng ngin ntk plbgi loksi di Smnnjng Mlysi. vi

7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT At first I wold lik to xprss my grtitd to th lmighty Allh, who hs crtd nd knowldgbl m to finish th dissrttion smoothly. I wold lik to bstow my grtitd nd profond rspct to my sprvisors Assoc. Prof. Dr. Sidr Rhmn nd Prof. Dr. Nsrdin Bin Abd Rhim for thir hrty spport, ncorgmnt nd incssnt xplortion throghot my stdy priod. I rmmbr th stm, ffction nd inspirtion of my prnts nd ldr brothr Dr. Md. Sofiql Alm to complt th dgr sccssflly. I m bsoltly grtfl nd indbtd to my blovd wif Mts. Toslim Khtn. Withot hr forbrnc nd hlp, it wold b qit impossibl for m to complt this dissrttion work in tim. I wold lik to cknowldg grtflly th finncil spport by Univrsity Mly Rsrch Grnt (UMRG) nd IPPP to crry ot this rsrch projct. I m thnkfl to th Mlysin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt (MMD) to provid m wind spd nd dirction dt. I grtflly cknowldg th privilgs nd opportnitis offrd by th Univrsity of Mly. I lso xprss my grtitd to th stff of this vrsity tht hlpd dirctly or indirctly to crry ot my rsrch work. vii

8 TABLE OF CONTENTS ORIGINAL LITERARY WORK DECLARATION... ii ABSTRACT... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS... viii LIST OF FIGURES... xi NOMENCLATURE... xvi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION Bckgrond Wind nrgy bsics Advntgs nd disdvntgs of wind nrgy... Error! Bookmrk not dfind. 1.4 Objctivs of th stdy Scop of th stdy Limittions of th stdy Otlin of th dissrttion CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW Introdction Rviw on ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility Rviw on contor mpping for wind nrgy CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY Introdction Assssmnt of wind nrgy potntility Gnrl climt of Mlysi Wind dt collction nd sit dscription Wind dt djstmnt Dt dscription Anlysis procdr viii

9 3.2.5() Wind spd distribtion prmtrs (b) Wibll distribtion fnction (c) Most probbl wind spd (d) Mximm nrgy crrying by th wind spd () Wind powr dnsity (f) Wind nrgy dnsity (g) Wind ros plot Contor Mpping of wind nrgy Intrpoltion nd xtrpoltion of dt Dt Anlysis CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Introdction Assssmnt of wind nrgy potntility Dirnl wind spd vritions Monthly nd yrly mn wind spd vritions Vritions of stndrd dvition, shp fctor (k) nd scl fctor (c) Wind powr nd nrgy dnsity Wibll distribtion nd cmltiv distribtion Polr digrms Contor mpping of mn wind spd in Pninslr Mlysi CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS Introdction Assssmnt of wind nrgy potntility Contor mps Sggstions for ftr work APENDICES Appndix A Prdictd monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt Appndix B Prdictd contor mpping on mn wind spd ix

10 Appndix C Rlvnt pbliction REFERENCES x

11 LIST OF FIGURES Figr 1.1 Globl nvironmntl chngs nd its ffct on hmn hlth Figr 1. 2 Worldwid wind nrgy instlld cpcity (Dt: GWEC) Figr 3.1 Loction of th slctd Mtorologicl Sttions in Pninslr Mlysi Figr 4.1 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Bt Embn Figr 4.2 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Byn Lps Figr 4.3 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Bttrworth Figr 4.4 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Cmron Highlnd Figr 4.5 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Chping Figr 4.6 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Ipoh Figr 4.7 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t KLIA Spng Figr 4.8 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Kot Bhr Figr 4.9 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Kl Kri Figr 4.10 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Kl Trnggn Figr 4.11 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Kntn Figr 4.12 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Mlcc Figr 4.13 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Mrsing Figr 4.14 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Sni Figr 4.15 Dirnl vrition of wind spd t Sitiwn Figr 4.16 Monthly mn wind spd t Bt Embn Figr 4.17 Monthly mn wind spd t Byn Lps Figr 4.18 Monthly mn wind spd t Bttrworth Figr 4.19 Monthly mn wind spd t Cmron Highlnd Figr 4.20 Monthly mn wind spd t Chping Figr 4.21 Monthly mn wind spd t Ipoh Figr 4.22 Monthly mn wind spd t KLIA Spng Figr 4.23 Monthly mn wind spd t Kot Bhr Figr 4.24 Monthly mn wind spd t Kl Kri xi

12 Figr 4.25 Monthly mn wind spd t Kl Trnggn Figr 4.26 Monthly mn wind spd t Kntn Figr 4.27 Monthly mn wind spd t Mlcc Figr 4.28 Monthly mn wind spd t Mrsing Figr 4.29 Monthly mn wind spd t Sni Figr 4.30 Monthly mn wind spd t Sitiwn Figr 4.31 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Bt Embn Figr 4.32 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Byn Lps Figr 4.33 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Bttrworth Figr 4.34 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Cmron Highlnd Figr 4.35 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Chping Figr 4.36 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Ipoh Figr 4.37 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t KLIA Spng Figr 4.38 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Kot Bhr Figr 4.39 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Kl Kri Figr 4.40 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Kl Trnggn Figr 4.41 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Kntn Figr 4.42 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Mlcc Figr 4.43 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Mrsing Figr 4.44 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Sni Figr 4.45 Wibll nd obsrvd wind spd frqncis t Sitiwn Figr 4.46 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Bt Embn Figr 4.47 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Byn Lps Figr 4.48 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Bttrworth Figr Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Cmron Highlnd Figr 4.50 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t chping Figr 4.51 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Ipoh Figr 4.52 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t KLIA Spng xii

13 Figr 4.53 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Kot Bhr Figr 4.54 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Kl Kri Figr 4.55 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Kl Trnggn Figr 4.56 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Kntn Figr 4.57 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Mlcc Figr 4.58 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Mrsing Figr 4.59 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Sni Figr 4.60 Cmltiv distribtion fnction t Sitiwn Figr 4.61 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Bt Embn Figr 4.62 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs 2008, Lps Figr 4.63 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Bttrworth Figr 4.64 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Cmron Highlnd Figr 4.65 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Chping Figr 4.66 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Ipoh Figr 4.67 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , KLIA Spng Figr 4.68 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Kot Bhr Figr 4.69 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Kl Kri Figr 4.70 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Kl Trnggn Figr 4.71 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Kntn Figr 4.72 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Mlcc Figr 4.73 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Mrsing Figr 4.74 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Sni Figr 4.75 Wind ros-wind dirction for th yrs , Sitiwn Figr 4.76 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for nry Figr 4.77 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Dcmbr Figr 4.78 Contor Mp on prdictd yrly mn wind spd (m/s) Figr B1 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Fbrry Figr B2 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Mrch xiii

14 Figr B3 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for April Figr B4 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for My Figr B5 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for n Figr B6 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for ly Figr B7 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Agst Figr B8 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Sptmbr Figr B9 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Octobr Figr B10 Contor Mp on prdictd monthly mn wind spd (m/s) for Novmbr LIST OF TABLES Tbl 3.1 Th loction nd lvtion of th slctd sttions Tbl 3.2 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Bt Embn in Tbl 3.3 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Bt Embn in Tbl 3.4 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Bttrworth in Tbl 4.1 Monthly stndrd dvition nd wibll prmtrs (k, c) Tbl 4.2 Monthly stndrd dvition nd Wibll prmtrs (k, c) Tbl 4. 3 Yrly mn wind spd, stndrd dvition, wibll prmtrs (k, c), most probbl wind spd nd wind spd crrying mx. nrgy Tbl 4.4 Monthly wind powr nd nrgy dnsity Tbl 4.5 Monthly wind powr nd nrgy dnsity Tbl 4.6 Monthly wind powr nd nrgy dnsity Tbl 4.7 Yrly wind powr dnsity nd wind nrgy dnsity Tbl A1 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Bttrworth in Tbl A2 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Cmron Highlnd in Tbl A3 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Cmron Highlnd in xiv

15 Tbl A4 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Chping in Tbl A5 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Chping in Tbl A6 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Ipoh in Tbl A7 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Ipoh in Tbl A8 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kl Trngn in Tbl A9 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kl Trngn in Tbl A10 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t KLIA Spng in Tbl A11 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t KLIA Spng in Tbl A12 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kot Bhr in Tbl A13 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kot Bhr in Tbl A14 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kl Kri in Tbl A15 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kl Kri in Tbl A16 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kntn in Tbl A17 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Kntn in Tbl A18 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Lps in Tbl A19 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Lps in Tbl A20 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Mlcc in Tbl A21 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Mlcc in Tbl A22 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Mrsing in Tbl A23 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Mrsing in Tbl A24 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Sni in Tbl A25 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Sni in Tbl A26 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Sitiwn in Tbl A27 Monthly bsis horly srfc wind spd dt t Sitiwn in xv

16 NOMENCLATURE kwh TWh GDP PPP GW Mto GHG RE R&D GIS PhD WECS MECM MMD SN RMSE NREL VAWT HAWT SREP.s.l PNNL Kilo Wtt Hor Tr Wtt Hor Gross Domstic Prodct Prchsing Powr Prity Gig Wtt Million Tons of Oil Eqivlnt Grn Hos Gs Rnwbl Enrgy Rsrch nd Dvlopmnt Gogrphicl Informtion Systm Doctor of Philosophy Wind Enrgy Convrsion Systm Ministry of Enrgy, Commniction nd Mltimdi Mlysin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt Skw Norml Room Mn Sqr Error Th Ntionl Rnwbl Enrgy Lbortory Vrticl Axis Wind Trbin Horizontl Axis Wind Trbin Smll & Rnwbl Enrgy Progrm Abov S Lvl Th Pcific Northwst Ntionl Librry A Ar (m 2 ) f(v) F(v) Wibll probbility dnsity fnction of obsrving wind spd Wibll cmltiv distribtion fnction xvi

17 k th dimnsionlss shp prmtr showing how pkd th wind distribtion is c th dimnsionlss scl prmtr showing how windy th wind loction ndr considrtion is. V Vlocity of th wind t hight, z [m/s] V 0 Vlocity of th wind t hight, z 0 [m/s] α h N n Wind spd powr lw co-fficint Hight (m) Nmbr of obsrvtions Nmbr of constnts P/A Wind powr dnsity (W/m 2 ) E/A Enrgy dnsity (kwh/m 2 /yr) ρ Dnsity of ir (Kg/m 3 ) σ Stndrd dvition Г( ) Gmm fnction of ( ) xvii

18 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Bckgrond Or civiliztion thrivs lrgly bsd pon th vilbility of inxpnsiv nrgy sorcs nd th xpcttion tht ths sorcs will not b xhstd. Howvr, it is known tht th primry nrgy sorcs, th fossil fls, will b xhstd, sinc thy r sd t mch highr rt thn thy r formd in th rth s crst. Ovr th lst dcd, it bcm pprnt tht th world's rsorcs of fossil fls r bginning to com to n nd. Estimts of nrgy rsorcs vry bt oil nd gs rsrvs r thoght to com to n nd in roghly 40 nd 60 yrs rspctivly nd col rsrvs cold only b bl to lst nothr 200 yrs (Rhmn & L, 2006). According to Intrntionl Enrgy Otlook 2009, World nrgy consmption will incrs from 1.38x10 23 kwh in 2006 to 1.62x10 23 kwh in 2015 nd 2.0x10 23 kwh in totl incrs of 44.2% ovr th projction priod (Gülr, 2009; IEA, 2009; Kygsz, 2010). Anothr ky rson to rdc or rlinc on fossil fls is th growing vidnc of th globl wrming phnomn. Sinc th indstril rvoltion, by brning ths fossil fls, thr is drmtic incrs in th rls of crbon dioxid into th tmosphr. Th crbon dioxid gthrs in th tmosphr nd soks p th long-wv, infrrd rdition rmittd from th rth tht wold normlly b rlsd into spc. By kping this rdition in th rth s tmosphr, it hs csd ris in th rth s tmprtr. This globl wrming ffct will hv fr-rching consqncs if it is not minimizd s soon s possibl. Th ntrl blnc of rth is vry dlict nd ris in tmprtr vn by 1 C or 2 C cn mlt th ic cps csing wid sprd flooding cross th world. Consqntilly th Unitd Ntions Frmwork Convntion on Climt Chng confrnc (UNFCCC) ws to stblish lglly binding intrntionl 1

19 grmnt, whrby ll th prticipting ntions commit thmslvs to tckl th iss of globl wrming nd grnhos gs missions, nd thy trgtd n vrg rdction of 5.2% from 1990 lvls by th yr Lrg-scl nd globl nvironmntl hzrds to hmn hlth incld climt chng, strtosphric ozon dpltion, loss of biodivrsity, chngs in hydrologicl systms nd th spplis of frshwtr, lnd dgrdtion nd strss on food-prodcing systms. Indoor ir polltion from brning solid fls css lot of dth in Asi, nd it is bot 65% of th world totl. Th rsons bhind th hmn hlth hzrdos r shown in Figr 1.1. Climt chng Strtosphric ozon dpltion UV xposr Dclin loss nd cosystm fnction Divrs pthwys Hmn hlth Agrocosystm prodctivity Wtr qntity nd sfty Dsrtifiction nd lnd dgrdtion Popltion displcmnt Altrd prcipittion Biodivrsity loss nd cosystm fnction Frshwtr dclin Figr 1.1 Globl nvironmntl chngs nd its ffct on hmn hlth. (WHO, 2009) Rnwbl nrgis r rgrdd s ky fctor in mitigting globl climt chng in th ftr. Among vrios rnwbl nrgy sorcs, wind nrgy, in prticlr, hs chivd mtrity in th nrgy mrkt, nd hs xprincd th grtst growth worldwid ovr th pst fw yrs (Y t l., 2001). According to th ssssmnt of th Intrgovrnmntl Pnl on Climt Chng concrning wind nrgy potntil, intrmittnt wind powr on lrg grid cn contribt n stimtd 15-20% of nnl 2

20 lctricity prodction withot spcil rrngmnts for storg, bckp, or lod mngmnt. Rnwbl nrgy sorcs r sily ccssibl to hmnkind rond th world. It is not only vilbl in wid rng bt is lso bndnt in ntr. Incrsd s of wind nrgy nd othr rnwbl nrgy sorcs will spr conomic growth, crt job opportnity, nhnc ntionl scrity, protct consmrs from pric spiks or spply shortgs ssocitd with globl fl mrkts nd drmticlly rdc th polltnt tht is wrming th plnt which css grnhos ffct (IPCC, 2010; Vrn t l., 2009). According to stimtion don by th intrntionl Enrgy Agncy (IEA), 44.2% incrs in globl nrgy consmption is forsn by 2030, with 70% of th growth in dmnd coming from dvloping contris. Mlysi is on of th most dvloping contris, with GDP of US$15,400 pr cpit (PPP bsis), nd stdy GDP growth rt of 4.6 in 2009 (IMF, 2010; Sidr & Li, 2011). Th conomy of Mlysi grw by 5% in 2005 nd ovrll nrgy dmnd is xpctd to incrs t n vrg rt of 6% pr nnm. In prlll with th rpid conomic dvlopmnt of Mlysi, finl nrgy consmption grw t th rt of 5.6% from 2000 to 2005 to rch 38.9 Mto in Th finl nrgy consmption is xpctd to b 98.7 Mto in 2030, nrly thr tims th 2002 lvl (Blo, 2011; Oh & Ch, 2010b; Sidr t l., 2009). Th indstril sctor will hv th highst growth rt of 4.3 prcnt. Indstril sctor ccontd for som 48% of totl nrgy s in 2007, which rprsnts th highst prcntg. It is stimtd tht th ntrl-gs rsrv is xpctd to lst for rond 70 yrs, whil oil is xpctd to b dpltd in 16 yrs t th crrnt rt of sg (Poh & Kong, 2002; Sidr t l., 2009b). Mlysi is in th midst of n r of vigoros indstril growth broght bot by strong domstic dmnd togthr with its significnt scinc nd tchnology dvlopmnt. Th govrnmnt s vision of trning Mlysi into hmn indstrilizd contry by th 3

21 yr 2020 will hv grt impct on th sg of nrgy in th contry. In th nxt thr dcds, Mlysi plns to dvlop itslf in sch mnnr tht it will not only b consmr of tchnology bt lso contribt to th flfillmnt of th scintific nd tchnologicl nds of th ftr. Mlysi hs lso committd itslf ndr Articls 4 nd 12 of th Unitd Ntions Frmwork Convntion on Climt Chng (UNFCCC) to prpr ntionl grnhos gs (GHG) invntory. Accordingly, it hs plnnd to rviw nd pdt th ssssmnt of vlnrbility to climt chng, nd ssss dpttion nds nd prpr its initil Ntionl Commnictions to th Confrnc of Prtis (COP). Mlysi is lso signtory to th Kyoto Protocol. Th crcil chllng fcing th powr sctor in Mlysi is th iss of sstinbility tht is to nsr th scrity nd rlibility of nrgy spply nd th divrsifiction of th vrios nrgy rsorcs. In Mlysi, grn tchnology ppliction is sn s on of th snsibl soltions, which r bing doptd by mny contris rond th world to ddrss th isss of nrgy nd nvironmnt simltnosly (Lo, 1996). Th Govrnmnt of Mlysi dclrd th Eighth Mlysin Pln in 2001 whr RE ws rgrdd s th fifth fl in th nw fiv-fl strtgy in th nrgy mix nd st trgt of 5% (600 MW) RE contribtion in th lctricity mix by th yr Howvr, th dvlopmnt pc of RE in Mlysi is rthr slow nd still t its nscnt stg, with its crrnt contribtion t rond 1% only of th totl nrgy mix, vn thogh th fifth fl policy hd bn nnoncd dcd go. Th notion is frthr prsd in th 9 th Mlysi Pln ( ) which hs lso st trgt of 5% RE in th contry s nrgy mix (Oh t l., 2010; Rhmn & L, 2006; Zmzm t l., 2003). In Mlysi, littl ffort hs bn md on th s of wind nrgy. Th potntil for wind nrgy gnrtion in Mlysi dpnds on th vilbility of th wind rsorc. Th vilbility of th wind rsorc vris with loction. 4

22 Globl Cmltiv Cpcity (GW) Among th sorcs of RE, th wind nrgy is th fstst growing nrgy tchnology in trms of prcntg of yrly growth of instlld cpcity pr tchnology sorc (Akdg & Gülr, 2010). Th worldwid wind nrgy instlld cpcity from hs bn shown in Figr 1.2. As Hrborn nd Hndry (2009) noticd wind hs dvncd mor qickly to commrciliztion thn othr tchnologis sch s solr powr, fl clls nd wv powr with rltivly littl R&D xpnditr. By th nd of 1999, rond 70% of th world-wid wind nrgy cpcity ws instlld in Erop, frthr 19% in North Amric nd 9% in Asi nd th Pcific (Ackrmnn & Södr, 2002) Yr Figr 1. 2 Worldwid wind nrgy instlld cpcity (Dt: GWEC). (GWEC, 2011b) To bild-p wind frm, it is ncssry to crry ot gnrl ssssmnt of th wind nrgy potntil ntionwid. This cn thn b followd with dtild ssssmnt in th promising loctions. Ths ssssmnts mst b compltd bfor mking ny finl dcision to instll wind nrgy plnt. Th wind rsorc is crcil stp in plnning wind nrgy projct nd dtild knowldg of th wind t sit is ndd to stimt th prformnc of wind nrgy projct. 5

23 By kping in mind th criticl sittion of nrgy worldwid nd considring th prsnt nd ftr nrgy scnrio of Mlysi, this dissrttion will focs on th ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility nd wind nrgy mpping in Pninslr Mlysi. For ssssing th wind nrgy potntility, in th cs of HAWT, it is vry mch ncssry to st-p th wind trbin in th dirction of most vilbl wind spd, so wind dirction hs bn lso dtrmind. For dtrmining th wind dirction of th vilbl wind, rlibl softwr wind ros hs bn pplid in this stdy. This dissrttion is lso focsd on th contor mpping of Pninslr Mlysi. For rprsnting th contor mpping of Pninslr Mlysi, rlibl mthod, Gogrphicl Informtion Systm (GIS), hs bn implmntd. 1.2 Wind nrgy bsics Wind is simply ir in motion. It is csd by th nvn hting of th Erth s srfc by th sn. Dring th dytim, ir on th lnd srfc gts htd p fstr thn ir on th wtr srfc. Th hot ir xpnds nd riss to th tmosphr nd th cold ir ovr th wtr srfc tris to mov to tht plc d to low prssr on th lnd s rslt wind is prodcd. At nighttim, th procss is rvrsd, th ir on th lnd srfc gts coold fstr thn th ir on th wtr srfc, nd th sm principl is pplid for th tmosphric winds. Sn is th ltimt sorc of nrgy for ll rnwbl nd lmost ll convntionl nrgy sorcs. On n vrg rth rcivs 1.74x10 17 wtts of powr from which bot 1 to 2 prcnt is convrtd into wind nrgy, which cconts to 50 to 100 tims mor thn th nrgy convrtd into biomss by ll plnts on rth (Grlpti, 2006; Li, 2011; Nsir, 1993). Th trms wind nrgy or wind powr dscribs th procss by which th wind is sd to gnrt mchnicl powr or lctricity. Wind trbins convrt th kintic nrgy in th wind into mchnicl powr. In convntionl wind nrgy convrsion 6

24 systm (WECS), th wind trbin trps th wind by mns of rotor blds connctd to th rotor hb. Th gthrd mchnicl nrgy from th wind is trnsfrrd to lowspd shft nd trnsmits th powr to high-spd shft throgh grbox. Th high spd shft is connctd to n lctric motor which convrts th mchnicl nrgy of th wind to lctricl nrgy. Indction gnrtor dos this procss of convrting mchnicl nrgy into lctricl nrgy nd th otpt powr prodcd is snt to th grid vi trnsmission lins (Millr t l., 1997; Sigfrid, 1998). 1.3 Objctivs of th stdy Th vision for Mlysi stiplts th ovrll trgt of bcoming n indstrilizd contry by Similrly, th Ministry of Enrgy, Commniction nd Mltimdi (MECM) hs lbortd th vision for th nrgy sctor for According to MECM vision, vry mmbr of Mlysin socity shold hv ccss to high qlity, scr lctricl powr nd othr convnint forms of nrgy spplid in sstinbl, fficint nd cost-ffctiv mnnr. Howvr, Mlysi s nrgy sorcs primrily compris oil, ntrl gs, hydropowr nd col nd rcntly rnwbl nrgy sorcs sch s solr powr nd biomss r bing xploitd. In Mlysi, wind nrgy convrsion is srios considrtion. Th potntil for wind nrgy gnrtion in Mlysi dpnds on th vilbility of th wind rsorc. Th vilbility of th wind rsorc vris with loction. It is ncssry to first crry ot gnrl ssssmnt of th wind nrgy potntil ntionwid. This cn thn b followd with dtild ssssmnt in promising loctions. Ths ssssmnts mst b compltd bfor frthr ction cn b dcidd on. Th wind rsorc is crcil stp in plnning wind nrgy projct nd dtild knowldg of th wind t sit is ndd to stimt th prformnc of wind nrgy projct, kping ths in mind th objctivs of this dissrttion r s follows: 7

25 To vlt th vilbility of wind nrgy rsorcs in Pninslr Mlysi bsd on th horly srfc wind spd nd dirction dt. To dvlop th contor mp to idntify th potntil wind rgions in Pninslr Mlysi. 1.4 Scop of th stdy This dissrttion dls with th ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility t vrios loctions in Pninslr Mlysi. At first, it is ndd to collct th dt of wind spd from th Mlysin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt. As mny yrs wind spd dt cn b collctd, it will b bttr for rlibl wind nrgy ssssmnt nd contor mpping. Th min scops of this stdy r givn blow: As th wind trbins r gnrlly instlld t th hight of 50 m, 100 m or 150 m nd th wind rsorc of Mlysi is not so good, th 10 m hight wind spd dt hs to b convrtd to 100 m wind spd dt by sing powr lw. Clclting th dirnl, monthly nd yrly mn wind spd from th srfc mn horly wind spd. By plotting grphiclly th dirnl nd monthly wind spd, th chrctristics of wind spd hv to b nlyzd. Th Wibll distribtion fnction nd cmltiv distribtion fnction r to b plottd nd from ths two distribtion fnctions wind chrctristics nd sitbl sits for th wind nrgy projct hs to b slctd. From cmltiv fnction, it is lso bing dtrmind how mny hors wind projct cn b fnctionl. Th monthly nd nnlly wind powr nd wind nrgy dnsity for ll th sits in Pninslr Mlysi r to b clcltd from th mtorologicl wind spd dt nd distribtion fnction. 8

26 As th wind spd dirction is vry importnt for th wind projct, th mximm wind flowing dirctions cn b stblishd by wind ros softwr. At lst, by sing th GIS mthod th contor mp of Pninslr Mlysi will b prsntd. 1.5 Limittions of th stdy Whnvr th rsrch proposl for this stdy ws sbmittd, th srfc wind spd nd dirction dt ws fr of chrg bt from th yr 2010 nd onwrd Mlysin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt (MMD) hs introdcd nw policy tht vryon hs to prchs wind spd dt. Howvr, to ndrstnd th wthr bhvior wll, n dqt sorc of msring wthr dt is vry mch ssntil. Th rltionship btwn th climtic dt nd nrgy prformnc of wind mchins rly hvily on both th qlity nd qntity of th mtorologicl obsrvtions. Thogh, it is blivd tht wind spd dt of shortr priods, lss thn 30 yrs, my inhrit vritions from th long trm vrg bt most of th dvloping contris do not possss ccrt long trm dt (Ln & Lm, 2000; Wissr, 2003b). As rslt, for this stdy initilly it hs bn dcidd to stdy 10-yr dt of 32 sttions in Pninslr Mlysi s in this stdy considrd only Pninslr Mlysi. MMD fixs th rt of RM 1,440 for on yr dt of on sttion dt. If it hs bn tkn 10-yr dt of 32 sttions thn it is ndd bot RM 460,800, which is qit impossibl for ny projct to provid. At lst, it hs bn dcidd ltogthr to tk two-yr dt of 15 sttions for which cost rond RM 46,080. This mont hd bn pid from th UMRG projct (Projct No. RG056-09AET) nd IPPP projct (PS091/2009C). 9

27 1.6 Otlin of th dissrttion This dissrttion compriss fiv chptrs. Th contnts of ch chptr r dscribd brifly hr: CHAPTER 1: This is th introdction chptr, givs th brif ovrviw on world nrgy rltd problms, Grnhos gss nd nrgy dmnd trnd. Mlysin nrgy stts nd why Mlysi nds th RE hs bn brifly discssd. Bckgronds of th stdy, objctivs nd scop of stdy hv bn discssd in this chptr. CHAPTER 2: This is th litrtr rviw chptr nd in this chptr th prsnt works which hv bn don in this fild hv bn highlightd. Th litrtr rviw of this stdy hs bn dividd into two prts nmly ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility nd wind nrgy contor mpping for Pninslr Mlysi. CHAPTER 3: Mthodology chptr whr th mthod of ssssing th wind nrgy potntility hs bn dscribd thoroghly. 2-prmtr Wibll distribtion modl hs bn tkn for th wind nrgy ssssmnt in this dissrttion. For showing th wind dirction th WRPLOT softwr, vrsion 5.9 hs bn sd. Gogrphicl Informtion Systm (GIS), ArcGIS 9.3, hs bn sd to prsnt th prdictd monthly nd yrly mn wind spd in th form of contor mps. CHAPTER 4: This is th rslt nd discssion chptr. In this chptr, th rslt of th wind nrgy ssssmnt hs bn discssd thoroghly. Th dirnl, monthly nd yrly wind spd vritions, wind powr nd nrgy dnsity, Wibll nd Cmltiv distribtion, Wind dirctions, tc. hv bn discssd. Th contor mps of wind nrgy in Pninslr Mlysi hv bn discssd in this chptr. CHAPTER 5: Conclsions nd sggstions chptr. In this chptr th min otcom of th dissrttion hs bn givn vry prcisly. Th min otcoms of th ssssmnt 10

28 of wind nrgy potntility nd wind nrgy mpping hv bn givn ppositly. Th vlbl sggstions hv bn givn for th ftr work. 11

29 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introdction In rcnt yrs, wind nrgy (wind trbin powr gnrtion) pplictions hv grown rpidly to mt nvironmntl protction rqirmnts nd lctricity dmnds. Globl cpcity of wind powr instlltions grw by 35.8 gig wtts (GW) in 2010, 22.5% incrs on th GW instlld t th nd of Crrntly, wind nrgy contribts lss thn 1% to totl world lctricity spply. Howvr, wind nrgy grows t n xponntil rt, from 20% to 40% pr yr nd BTM conslt ApS stimts tht by 2012 wind nrgy will contribt 2% of world nrgy spply (GWEC, 2011; Pl, 2007). Nmros rsrchs rltd to wind nrgy ssssmnt nd mpping hv bn crrid ot with rspct to its ppliction, potntil, prformnc, optimiztion, intgrtion with othr kinds of powr gnrtion systms, tc. Th litrtr rviw of this dissrttion will giv n ovrviw of th prsnt stts of th rltd fild nd show th ftr work of th rlvnt fild. This chptr prsnts litrtr rviw on th ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility nd contor mpping of Pninslr Mlysi. For ssssing th wind nrgy potntility, th most vrstil mthod 2-prmtrs Wibll distribtion fnction hs bn sd nd for mpping GIS mthod doptd in this stdy. A good collction of PhD nd Mstr thsis, jornl rticls, rports, confrnc pprs, intrnt sorcs nd books hv bn sd for this stdy. It shold b mntiond tht bot 80-90% of th jornl pprs r collctd from most prtinnt nd prstigios pr rviwd intrntionl rfrrd jornls sch s Enrgy, Enrgy Policy, Applid Enrgy, Rnwbl nd Sstinbl Enrgy Rviws, Rnwbl Enrgy, ornl of Wind Enginring nd Indstril 12

30 Arodynmics, Environmntl Rsrch nd Intrntionl ornl of Enrgy Rsrch. Som intrntionl high qlity mstrs nd PhD thss in th rlvnt fild by Grlpti (2006); Khn (2004); Nsir (1993); Lcknr (2008); Liddl (2008) my b considrd s strong spport for this work. Morovr, sbstntil mont of rlvnt informtion hs bn collctd throgh prsonl commniction with th ky rsrchrs rond th world in this rsrch r. 2.2 Gnrl history of wind tchnology Th history of wind powr shows gnrl voltion from th s of simpl, light dvics drivn by rodynmic drg forcs; to hvy, mtril-intnsiv drg dvics; to th incrsd s of light, mtril-fficint rodynmic lift dvics in th modrn r. Bt it sholdn't b imgind tht rodynmic lift (th forc tht mks irplns fly) is modrn concpt tht ws nknown to th ncints. Th rlist known s of wind powr, of cors, is th sil bot, nd this tchnology hd n importnt impct on th ltr dvlopmnt of sil-typ windmills. Wind indd ws lmost th only sorc of powr (Msgrov, 1987) for ships ntil this dy in som loctions; clrly show thir dbt to th siling ship, with cloth sils ttchd to rdil woodn sprs. This llows th powr otpt to b limitd in strong winds by wrpping prt of ch sil rond its spr. Th Chins rportdly invntd th windmill. Wst of Chin in Prsi windmills wr sd rond 200 BC. By 1000 A.D. th Vikings hd xplord nd conqrd th North Atlntic bcs of th powr of th wind. Windmills wr introdcd to th wstrnworld in th 1100 s AD. Th rlist rfrncs tht ppr in th litrtr r 1105 s AD in Arlss Frnc, 1180 A.D. in Normndy nd 1191 A.D. in Englnd. By 13 th cntry windmills wr sd xtnsivly throghot most of Erop. Arond th 14th cntry, th Dtch sd pssiv wind powr to pmp wtr from floodd filds with dvic clld windmill. Mch of Hollnd is blow s-lvl nd is oftn floodd. Th 13

31 windmill ws th trnsition invntion tht ld to modrn wind powr trbins nd othr dvics. Th windmills rfr to th oprtion of grinding or milling grin. This ppliction ws so common tht most wind trbins wr clld wind mills, vn whn thy ctlly pmpd wtr or prformd som othr fnction. By th lt 19th cntry, th mltivn windmill ws invntd in th Unitd Stts to pmp grondwtr; this ssistd in th sttlmnt of th Wst nd Midwst by providing wtr for hmns, livstock, nd rilrods. In th 1930s Frnchmn nmd G.. M. Drris invntd wind powr dsign in th shp of n ggbtr. By 1940 thr wr rond 6 million windmills of th typ introdcd in th Unitd Stts lmost cntry rlir in In 1941 nr Rtlnd, Vrmont gint 1.5 MW mchin powrd th Cntrl Vrmont Pblic Srvic lctric grid. st s solr powr tchnology cclrtd dring th oil mbrgo of , wind powr md lrg strids. Wstinghos Elctric Compny rcivd Dprtmnt of Enrgy (DOE) / NASA contrcts for bilding lrg scl wind trbins. Th grtst cpcity wind trbin ws bilt in Oh, Hwii, with 3.2 MW powr rting. A 25% tx crdit for invstors of wind trbins ws md throgh th Pblic Utilitis Rgltory Policis Act (PURPA) of Btwn 1981 nd ,870 trbins wr instlld in Cliforni. At th nd of 1983, thr wr rond 4600 wind trbins oprting ot of Cliforni. Ths trbins togthr prodcd KW of lctricity. Th chng in prics of wind powr lctricity droppd from 14 cnts pr kwh in 1985 to 5 cnts pr kwh in 1994 mking wind powr mch grtr comptitor in th lctricity mrkt (Andrsn, 2011; Tlosnt, 2011; Wikipdi, 2011). 2.3 Rviw on ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility Wind nrgy sit ssssmnt vlts th potntil for givn sit to prodc nrgy from wind trbin. Typiclly, wind nrgy dvlopmnt is inititd by privt 14

32 compny, govrnmnt body, or tility tht is intrstd in prodcing wind nrgy in prticlr rgion. Th procss gnrlly bgins with prliminry r idntifiction, which ntils idntifying rltivly lrg r whr wind nrgy dvlopmnt is vibl. This typ of rdimntry ssssmnt hs bn going on ll ovr th world to ssist th finl ssssmnt to th Govrnmntl gncis. Kyhni t l. (2010) ssssd th wind nrgy potntility s powr gnrtion sorc in th cpitl of Irn. For doing this, thy sd th wind spd dt ovr n lvn-yr priod from Th wind spd dt ws collctd from th Mtorologicl dprtmnt of Irn. Th thors showd tht th dirnl, monthly nd nnl wind spd vrition ovr th projctd priod. From ths dt, by th 2-prmtr Wibll distribtion, th thors vltd th wind nrgy potntility t Thrn. Wind dirction hs bn lso shown by th Wind Ros Polr digrm. According to th thors' stimtion, th monthly mn wind spd vls r btwn 4.00 m/s nd 5.00 m/s, bt som r ovr 5.00 m/s, whil only fw r ovr 5.50 m/s nd ndr 3.50 m/s. Th yrly mn wind spd vls rng from 3.86 m/s to 4.5m/s. Th thors fond tht th monthly mximm wind powr dnsity t Thrn ws W/m 2, whrs th yrly mximm wind powr dnsity ws W/m 2 in Fyrippis t l. (2010) vltd th wind nrgy potntility in Nxos Islnd, Grc. For vlting th wind nrgy potntility, Wibll distribtion nd Ryligh distribtion hv bn sd. To vlt th prformnc of ths distribtion mthods, th root mn sqr rror (RMSE) prmtr, th chi-sqr (χ 2 ) tst nd th modling fficincy tst hv bn implid. From ths tst, it ws fond tht th Wibll distribtion rprsntd th ctl dt bttr thn th Ryligh distribtion. It ws fond tht th highst nd lowst vl of th mn wind powr dnsity ws 730 W/m 2 nd 180 W/m 2 rspctivly, whil th mn nnl wind powr dnsity ws stimtd to 15

33 b 420 W/m 2. It is concldd tht th rgion flls in th wind clss of 7, nd it is sitbl for lrg scl wind nrgy prodction. Angrh t l. (2010) md th ssssmnt of rnwbl nrgy potntil t Aqb in ordn. To ssss th rnwbl nrgy potntility, thy implmntd th skw-norml sttisticl mthod. Thy nlyzd th dily mn wind spd of 10 yrs nd fiv yrs of solr insoltion lvl dt. Th goodnss of fit of SN modls hs bn xmind grphiclly nd sttisticl tsts throgh chi-sqr (χ 2 ) nd Kolmogorob-Smirnov tsts. Aftr nlyzing th thors strongly rcommndd tht th fittd SN distribtion s n pproprit modl for dily mn wind spds dt, sinc th fittd SN-distribtion psss both grphicl nd goodnss fit tsts. Th mximm wind powr dnsity ws fond to b W/m 2 nd W/m 2 by Skw-Norml tst nd from Mtorologicl dt rspctivly. Zhrim t l. (2009) nlyzd th wind spd in th st cost of Mlysi by sing Wibll, Lognorml nd Gmm distribtion fnctions. Two-yr dt hv bn collctd from th Univrsity of Mly nd Univrsity of Trnggn sttions. It is fond tht th highst nd lowst wind spds r fond to b 6.54 m/s nd 2.04 m/s, whrs th mn wind spd ws bot 3.7 m/s. From th distribtion fnctions, it is fond tht th ll distribtion fnctions rprsnt nrrow pk for th whol distribtions in th rng of 2.0 m/s to 3.0 m/s. Khdm nd Hssin (2006) stdid th fsibility of wind rsorcs in Ktbdi Islnd, Bngldsh. For ssssing th fsibility, thy collctd th wind spd dt from Bngldsh Mtorologicl Dprtmnt (BMD) nd Bngldsh Cntr for Advnc Stdis (BCAS). From th wind spd dt of BMD sttions, thy fond th yrly mn wind spd ws 1.80 m/s t 13 m hight ovr th 10 yrs priod, whrs from BCAS dt, thy fond th yrly mn wind spd ws 4.40 m/s t 25 m hight. 16

34 Thir min objctiv of this stdy ws to ssss th wind rsorcs ovr th islnd nd to prdict good loctions for wind nrgy gnrtion. To do this, thy implid th Wind Atls Anlysis nd Appliction Progrm (WAsP) for vrticl nd horizontl xtrpoltion, which ss tim sris of wind dt long with informtion on srfc chrctristics of th loction. By pplying WAsP, thy dvlopd th frqncy of wind spd, monthly nd yrly Wibll prmtrs, wind dirctions by wind ros nd th wind tls t 50 m hight. It ws fond tht th mximm mn wind spd vl ws 5.79 m/s, whrs th mximm powr dnsity ws 250 W/m 2. Trwnh nd Shin (2003) hv stimtd th mn wind spd in som prts of ordn sing stndrd rgionl dpndnc fnction (SRDF) by sing th wind spd rcords of t th ordnin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt. Th SRDF givs flxibility in obtining dpndnt wighting fctors, lding to mor rlistic point stimtions. Clik (2003) hs stimtd monthly wind nrgy prodction sing Wibll rprsnttiv wind dt in th tim sris formt for totl of 96 months from fiv diffrnt loctions in th world. Th Wibll prmtrs (shp fctor nd scl fctor) wr dtrmind bsd on wind distribtion sttistics, clcltd from msrd dt with th hlp of gmm fnction. Th min objctiv of this stdy ws to stimt th wind nrgy otpt for smll-scl systms. Using th Wibll rprsnttiv nd msrd dt in th tim-sris formt, th monthly nrgy otpts wr clcltd for wind trbin of 50 W nominl powr. Th thor concldd from this stdy tht th Wibll-rprsnttiv dt r vry sccssfl in rprsnting th tim-sris dt. Chng t l. (2003) hv ssssd th wind chrctristics nd wind trbin chrctristics in Tiwn by nlyzing th 39 yrs wind spd dt sorc ( ) t 25 mtorologicl sttions. To invstigt wind chrctristics nd wind trbin chrctristics, 2-stg vltion procdr hs bn crrid ot. To gt th bsic informtion rgrding wind rsorcs, th yrly wind spd distribtion nd wind 17

35 powr dnsity hv bn vltd. Th wind trbin chrctristics: th vilbility fctor, th cpcity fctor nd wind trbin fficincy for diffrnt high-wind loctions wr clcltd nd intgrtd to mp ot th wind nrgy rsorcs. It ws fond tht th vilbility fctor vris from to 0.929, th wind trbin fficincy ws loctd btwn to 0.29, nd th cpcity fctor ws btwn 0.45 to Sopin t l. (1995) nlyzd th 10 yrs wind spd dt of 10 sttions for Mlysi. Th nnl frqncy distribtion of wind spds for th tn sttions hs bn shown. Th wind distribtion hs bn clssifid into for ctgoris: (i) th month of April (ii) th month of My-Sptmbr (iii) th month of Octobr nd (iv) th months of Novmbr-Mrch. It is fond tht Mrsing nd Kl Trnggn hs th grtst wind powr potntil in Mlysi. 2.4 Rviw on contor mpping for wind nrgy Gnrlly, th wind nrgy mpping systm is dsignd to disply rgionl (grtr thn 50,000 km 2 ) distribtions of th wind rsorc. Th mps r intndd to dnot rs whr wind nrgy projcts might b fsibl. Th ntionl Rnwbl Enrgy Lbortory (NREL) hs dvlopd n tomtd tchniq for wind rsorc mpping to id in th cclrtion of wind nrgy dploymnt. Th commrcilly vilbl gogrphic informtion systm softwr pckgs hv bn sd in mpping systm by NREL. Rgionl wind rsorc mps sing this nw systm hv bn prodcd for rs of th Unitd Stts, Mxico, Chil, Indonsi, nd Chin. Contrywid wind rsorc ssssmnts r ndr wy for Philippins, th Dominicn Rpblic, nd Mongoli. Som of th contis in th world lik Argntin nd Rssi r schdld to bgin in th nr ftr (Schwrtz, 1999). As fossil fl hs bn dpltd grdlly, most of th contris in th world r now intrstd in rnwbl nrgy xpnsion. Howvr, most of th contris still did not tk ny ffctiv stps to dvlop contor 18

36 mpping bt sprtly contor mp dvlopmnt hs bn going on in th vrios plcs ll ovr th world. Som of thm r givn in this sction. Bccli t l. (2010) hv stimtd th wind spd ovr th complx trrin sing th gnrlizd mpping rgrssor. For this stdy, th horly mn wind spd dt from 29 diffrnt sttions of Sicilin trritory hv bn collctd. Th crvilinr Componnt Anlysis (CCA) hs bn sd to find th ndrlying mnifold of dt (th vrg mnifold) nd to mp it onto p-dimnsionl otpt Y. Th vry importnt fctor, srfc roghnss tht cn inflnc th wind profil hs bn considrd. To ssss th prformncs of th implmntd modls, th prdictd vls of th wind spd t 10 m.g.l hs bn comprd with thos obtind by th NNRK pproch. Finlly, mp hs bn obtind of th stimtd vrg wind spd t 50 m.g.l. Fdr (2010) hs prodcd th wind nrgy mpping for nrgy ppliction in Nigri sing th rtificil nrl ntworks. For doing this, th thor sd th Gogrphicl Informtion Systm (GIS) Softwr ArcViw 3.2. Th thor hs nlyzd 20 yrs ( ) wind spd dt from 28 mtorologicl sttions. From th costl rgion in th soth to svnnh rgion in th north, th monthly mn wind spd hs bn vrid grtly. Th monthly mn wind spds r fond to b m/s nd m/s for th sothrn rgion nd northrn rgion rspctivly. Th highst monthly wind nrgy hs bn fond to b W. Th thor hs concldd tht th ANN bsd modl hs th ccptbl ccrcy with Mn Absolt Prcntg Error (MAPE) of 8.9% nd corrltion cofficint (r-vl) of ws fond for prdiction of wind spd profil in Nigri. Rmchndr nd Shrthi (2005) hv mployd th gogrphicl informtion systm (GIS) to mp th wind nrgy rsorcs t Krntk stt nd nlyzd thir vribility considring sptil nd ssonl spcts. Thy dvlopd sptil dtbs with th 19

37 wind spd dt nd sd to vlt of th thorticl potntil throgh continos monitoring nd mpping of th wind rsorcs. Th wind spd dt hv bn collctd from th Indi Mtorologicl Dprtmnt (IMD) in Krntk of 29 sttions. Th thor did not considr th yrly mn wind spd lss thn 5 m/s s sitbl for gnrting nrgy, nd thy fond Chikkodi, Horti, Khndrynhlli nd Kmkrhtti s th promising sits for hrnssing wind nrgy. Ths sits hv bn rcommndd for constrction of wind frms (Rmchndr & Shrthi, 2007) Khn t l. (2004) hv gnrtd wind nrgy mp of Bngldsh, which incorports svrl microscl ftrs, sch s trrin roghnss, lvtion, tc. with msoscl modl. A msoscl mp hs bn obtind from svrl globl climtologicl dtbss ws djstd for th 30-m lvtion, nd trrin condition, which wold sit th lnd profil of Bngldsh. Th vilbl srfc msrmnt dt wr invstigtd, corrctd, corrltd nd comprd with this modl. From this mp, th thors hv bn fond tht th costl blt of Bngldsh hs n nnl vrg wind spd bov 5 m/s, whrs th wind spd in th northstrn districts is rond 4.5 m/s. 20

38 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introdction Th mthodology sction compriss minly two prts: ssssmnt of wind nrgy potntility nd contor mpping of wind nrgy for Pninslr Mlysi. In this chptr, th mthods of ssssmnt of wind nrgy nd contor mpping hv bn discssd individlly. 3.2 Assssmnt of wind nrgy potntility Th ssssmnt of th wind nrgy rsorc is crcil stp in plnning wind nrgy projct nd dtild knowldg of th wind t sit is ndd to stimt th prformnc of wind nrgy projct. In this dissrttion, Wibll distribtion modl hs bn tkn for th ssssmnt for wind nrgy potntility. Along with th Wibll distribtion modl, gnrl climt of Mlysi, wind dt collction, sit's dscription, wind dt djstmnt, tc. hv bn clrly dscribd in this sction Gnrl climt of Mlysi Mlysi, in th sothst prt of Asi, hs gogrphic coordint, nd it lis on ltitd 2 30'N nd longitd 'E. Th contry is rcognizd by two lnds mss, which sprtd by Soth Chin S. On is in Pninsl Mlysi rgion, nd nothr two stts (Sbh nd Srwk) r in Borno Islnd nd totl p th sm 329,847 sqr kilomtrs (127,355 sq. mi.) with 27 million popltions liv in Mlysi. Th chrctristic ftr of th climt of Pninslr Mlysi is qtoril nd is chrctrizd by firly high bt niform tmprtrs (rnging from 23 to 31 C /73 to 21

39 88 F throghot th yr), high hmidity, nd copios rinfll (vrging bot 250 cm/100 in nnlly). Bing loctd nr th qtor, th wthr in Mlysi is gnrlly considrd hot nd snny. It is xtrmly rr to hv fll dy with clr sky vn dring priods of svr droght. On th othr hnd, it is lso rr to hv strtch of fw dys with compltly no snshin xcpt dring th northst monsoon ssons. Thogh wind spd ovr th contry is gnrlly vribl, thr r, howvr, som niform priodic chngs in th wind flow pttrns. Bsd on ths chngs, for ssons cn b distingishd, nmly, th sothwst monsoon, northst monsoon nd two shortr priods of intr-monsoon ssons. Th sothwst monsoon sson is slly stblishd in th lttr hlf of My or rly n nd nds in Sptmbr. Th prviling wind flow is gnrlly sothwstrly nd light, blow m/s. Th northst monsoon sson slly commncs in rly Novmbr nd nds in Mrch. Dring this sson, stdy strly or northstrly winds of 5.15 to m/s prvil. Th st cost stts of Pninslr Mlysi whr th wind my rch m/s or mor dring priods of strong srgs of cold ir from th north (cold srgs). Dring th two intrmonsoon ssons, th winds r gnrlly light nd vribl. Dring ths ssons, th qtoril trogh lis ovr Mlysi (Exll & Fook, 1986; Sopin t l., 1995). It is worth mntioning tht dring th months from April to Novmbr, whn typhoons frqntly dvlop ovr th wst Pcific nd mov Wstwrds cross th Philippins, Sothwstrly winds ovr th Northwst cost of Sbh nd Srwk rgion my strngthn to rch m/s or mor. An vrg of 6 to 7 tropicl cyclons trvrss ovr th Philippins nd Soth Chin S pr yr. Mor prcisly, it occrrd 7 tims in 1996, 5 tims in 1997, 4 tims in 1998, 2 tims in 1999, 7 tims in 2000, 3 tims in 22

40 2001, 5 tims in 2002, 8 tims in 2003, 12 tims in 2004 nd 4 tims in 2005 (Pchco t l., 2007). For protcting ny nxpctd incidnt of wind trbin, control strtgy which provids th Asin nd Pcific r ginst th strong typhoon rlts to th pitch nd yw systm cn b sd. With th rgltion of th pitch ngl nd th yw ngl, th lod of bld, ncll nd towr strctr cold b rdcd (Yn-Chih t l., 2010). Th Typhoon II, niq vrticl xis wind trbin (VAWT), cn lso b pplid in this rgion. It provids improvd prformnc with both sbstntilly highr dgr of fficincy nd widr rng of xploitbl wind spds thn thos of th now prviling horizontl xis wind trbins (HAWT) (CTV, 2010) Wind dt collction nd sit dscription Th wind spd dt for this stdy hs bn collctd from th Mlysin Mtorologicl Dprtmnt (MMD) t Ptling y, Slngor dring th priod of MMD collctd wind spd dt from diffrnt sttions throghot Pninslr Mlysi. A 10 m hight mst, md of stl in th solid tblr form ws sd to instll th nmomtr nd wind vn for slctd sttions. A rotting cp typ nmomtr nd wind vn wr both instlld t th top of th mst for msring th srfc wind spd nd wind dirction rspctivly. Th tmprtr nd th rltiv hmidity wr lso msrd sing thrmomtr nd hygromtr rspctivly. Th rson for prforming wind spd msrmnt t 10 m hight ws tht ccording to Ktsolis (1993), for climtologicl nd prcticl rsons it hs bn grd tht this shold b th stndrd mtorologicl rfrnc lvl in ordr to chiv rprsnttiv rcording of th wind potntil of th r. Frthrmor, th wind spd t highr hights cold b clcltd sing th powr lw. Wind spd ws tkn vry 10 sconds nd vrgd ovr 5 mints nd stord in dt-loggr. Th 5- mints vrgd dt wr frthr vrgd ovr n hor. At th nd of ch hor, th 23