Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin March 1 st, 2019

Transcription

1 Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin March 1 st, 219 The March 1 st snow survey is now complete. Data from 141 manual snow courses and 8 automated snow weather stations around the province (collected by the Ministry of Environment Snow Survey Program, BC Hydro and partners), and climate data from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the provincial Climate Related Monitoring Program have been used to form the basis of the following report 1. Weather February was very cold through the entire province as a stable arctic airmass remained in place for most of the month. Many cities recorded the coldest or second coldest average temperature for February. Temperature anomalies along the coast were -4 to -5 C below normal; anomalies in the southern interior were -6 to -9 C below normal, and weather stations in the north were up to C below normal. Precipitation was variable in February throughout Environment and Climate Change Canada s provincial climate stations. Some stations were dry (e.g. Terrace) and some had greater than normal precipitation (e.g. Williams Lake). However, higher elevation automated snow weather stations recorded very low precipitation relative to normal conditions. Many sites along the Coast and Vancouver Island also recorded much lower than normal precipitation amounts during February. Snowpack Snow basin indices for March 1 st, 219 range from a low of 59% of normal in the Stikine to a high of 16% in the Upper Fraser West (Table 1 and Figure 1). The province ranges from well below normal snowpack to normal snowpack for March 1 st, with the average of all snow measurements across the province calculated to be 89% of normal. Well below normal snowpack (<6% of normal) is present in the Stikine, while below normal snowpack (6-8% of normal) exists in the Similkameen, Skagit, Central Coast and Nechako. The rest of the province has slightly below normal to normal snowpack (8-11% of normal). There are no regions of the province with exceptionally high snowpack. The March 1 st snow basin index for the entire Fraser River is 91% of normal. So far this season, snow accumulation has been dominated by persistent weather patterns. Most of this years snowpack built up rapidly over a five to six-week period from early- December to early-january. Weather through February shifted into the dominance of Arctic air across the province, with extremely cold temperatures and limited snow accumulation. This pattern has continued into the beginning of March. Snowpack throughout the province remained relatively level through February. Most basins dropped by 5 to 15% relative to normal compared to February 1 due to the dry and cold conditions. 1. Every effort is made to ensure that data reported on these pages are accurate. However, in order to update the graphs and indices as quickly as possible, some data may have been estimated. Please note that data provided on these pages are preliminary and subject to revision upon review.

2 Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin March 1 st, 219 Table 1 - BC Snow Indices March 1, 219 % of % of Upper Fraser West 16 Boundary 68 Upper Fraser East 96 Similkameen 72 Nechako 79 South Coast 89 Middle Fraser Vancouver Island 85 Lower Fraser 86 Central Coast 78 North Thompson Skagit South Thompson 83 Peace 13 Upper Columbia Skeena-Nass 82 West Kootenay 9 Stikine 59 East Kootenay 88 Liard 76 Okanagan 81 Northwest 71 Nicola 81 Fraser 91 Outlook The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) at the U.S. National Weather Service/NOAA has declared that El Niño conditions are present and is forecasting a high likelihood of El Niño continuing through spring 219. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have strengthened since the beginning of February. Typically, El Niño is linked to warmer winters across British Columbia, with a trend towards lower than normal snowpack. Warmer temperatures were present throughout the province in December and January. However, a strong arctic airmass significantly influenced British Columbia in February and offset these typical El Niño impacts. February temperatures through the province were much lower than normal, reaching record lows in several regions. The impact of El Niño on winter snowpack in BC is highly variable and does not always mean lower snowpack - for example, 26-7 had significant snowpack across the province. Seasonal weather forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada show an increased likelihood of below normal temperatures for most of the province over March to May. NOAA seasonal forecasts for the contiguous United States indicate an increased likelihood of above normal temperatures across Washington, Idaho, Montana and Alaska. 1. Every effort is made to ensure that data reported on these pages are accurate. However, in order to update the graphs and indices as quickly as possible, some data may have been estimated. Please note that data provided on these pages are preliminary and subject to revision upon review.

3 Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin March 1 st, 219 By early March, nearly 8% of the annual BC snowpack has typically accumulated. Currently, the snow accumulation ranges from well below normal to normal for March 1 st across the province. However, seasonal snowpack can still change significantly with one to two more months of possible snow accumulation left in winter/spring 219. At this stage in the season there is no elevated flood risk present in the current snowpack across the province. For example, peak flows at the Fraser River at Hope during normal snowpack years range between 7, and 12, m 3 /s. While snow is one significant aspect to seasonal flooding in BC, weather during the freshet season also plays a key role, and flooding is possible in years with near normal snowpack. Seasonal volume runoff forecasts (see below) are near-normal (85-15%) for the Upper Fraser, Middle Fraser Thompson, Skeena/Bulkley, and Okanagan Lake basins, and belownormal (<85%) for the Similkameen, Nicola Lake and Kalamalka-Wood Lake. The snowmelt component of seasonal runoff for Vancouver Island, South Coast, and Lower Fraser is near normal. Well below normal snowpack in the Northwest and Stikine is an early indication of the potential for below normal seasonal runoff. The River Forecast Centre will continue to monitor snowpack conditions and will provide an updated seasonal flood risk forecast in the April 1 st, 219 bulletin, which is scheduled for release on April 8 th. BC River Forecast Centre March 8, Every effort is made to ensure that data reported on these pages are accurate. However, in order to update the graphs and indices as quickly as possible, some data may have been estimated. Please note that data provided on these pages are preliminary and subject to revision upon review.

4 Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin March 1 st, 219 Figure 1: Snow Water Index March 1 st, Every effort is made to ensure that data reported on these pages are accurate. However, in order to update the graphs and indices as quickly as possible, some data may have been estimated. Please note that data provided on these pages are preliminary and subject to revision upon review.

5 River Forecast Centre Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations Volume Runoff Forecast March 219 Location Forecast Mar Jun Runoff Mar Jul Runoff Mar Sep Runoff (1981 (1981 ( ) % of Std. Error Forecast 21) % of Std. Error Forecast 21) % of Std. Error Upper Fraser Middle Fraser Thompson Bulkley and Skeena Fraser at McBride McGregor at Lower Canyon Fraser at Shelley Quesnel River at Quesnel N. Thompson at McLure S. Thompson at Chase Thompson at Spences Bridge Bulkley at Quick Skeena at Usk Nicola Lake Inflows Nicola River at Spences Bridge Similkameen River at Nighthawk at Hedley Okanagan and Kalamalka Wood Lake Okanagan Lake Inflow Kalamalka Wood Lake Inflow Note: 1 kdam 3 =1,, m 3 Note that missing values reflect that forecasts were not made for that time interval Disclaimer: Seasonal forecasts were developed using a Principle Component Analysis of snow pack, climate and streamflow data. There is inherent uncertainty in runoff forecasts including potential errors in data and the unpredictable nature of seasonal weather Use at your own risk

6 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent % Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code Minimum Maximum s of Record 1A1P Yellowhead Lake Upper Fraser East A2P McBride Upper Upper Fraser East % A3P Barkerville Upper Fraser East % A5 LONGWORTH (UPPER) Upper Fraser East % A5P Longworth Upper Upper Fraser East A6A HANSARD Upper Fraser East % A1 PRINCE GEORGE A Upper Fraser East % A11 PACIFIC LAKE Upper Fraser East % A12 KAZA LAKE Upper Fraser West % A12P Kaza Lake Upper Fraser West A14P Hedrick Lake Upper Fraser East % A15 KNUDSEN LAKE Upper Fraser East % A15P Knudsen Lake Upper Fraser East A16 BURNS LAKE Upper Fraser West % A17P Revolution Creek Upper Fraser East % A19P Dome Mountain Upper Fraser East % A23 BIRD CREEK Upper Fraser West % B1 MOUNT WELLS Nechako % B1P Mount Wells Nechako % B2 TAHTSA LAKE Nechako % B2P Tahtsa Lake Nechako % B5 SKINS LAKE Nechako % B6 MOUNT SWANNELL Nechako % B7 NUTLI LAKE Nechako % B8P Mount Pondosy Nechako % C1 BROOKMERE Middle Fraser % C5 MCGILLIVRAY PASS Middle Fraser % C5P McGillivray Pass Middle Fraser C6 PAVILION Middle Fraser % C8 NAZKO Middle Fraser % C9A HIGHLAND VALLEY Middle Fraser % C12P Green Mountain Middle Fraser % C13A HORSEFLY MOUNTAIN Middle Fraser % C14 BRALORNE Middle Fraser % C14P Bralorne Middle Fraser C17 MOUNT TIMOTHY Middle Fraser % C18P Mission Ridge Middle Fraser %

7 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code % Minimum Maximum s of Record 1C19 GNAWED MOUNTAIN Middle Fraser % C2P Boss Mountain Mine Middle Fraser % C21 BIG CREEK Middle Fraser % C22 PUNTZI MOUNTAIN Middle Fraser % C23 PENFOLD CREEK Middle Fraser % C LAC LE JEUNE (UPPER) Middle Fraser % C28 DUFFEY LAKE Middle Fraser % C29 SHOVELNOSE MOUNTAIN Middle Fraser % C29P Shovelnose Moutain Middle Fraser C32 DEADMAN RIVER Middle Fraser % C33A GRANITE MOUNTAIN Middle Fraser % C37 BRALORNE(UPPER) Middle Fraser % C38 DOWNTON LAKE (UPPER) Middle Fraser % C38P Downton Lake Upper Middle Fraser C39 BRIDGE GLACIER (LOWER) Middle Fraser % C4 TYAUGHTON Middle Fraser % C4P North Tyaughton Middle Fraser C41P Yanks Peak East Middle Fraser % C42 CAVERHILL LAKE Middle Fraser D6P Tenquille Lake Lower Fraser % D8 STAVE LAKE Lower Fraser A 36% D9 WAHLEACH LAKE Lower Fraser % D9P Wahleach Lake Upper Lower Fraser % D1 NAHATLATCH RIVER Lower Fraser % D16 DICKSON LAKE Lower Fraser % D17P Chilliwack River Lower Fraser % D18P Disappointment Lake Lower Fraser D19P Spuzzum Creek Lower Fraser % E1B BLUE RIVER North Thompson % E2P Mount Cook North Thompson % E3A TROPHY MOUNTAIN North Thompson % E7 ADAMS RIVER North Thompson % E8P Azure River North Thompson E1P Kostal Lake North Thompson % E14P Cook Creek North Thompson F1A ABERDEEN LAKE South Thompson % F2 ANGLEMONT South Thompson %

8 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code % Minimum Maximum s of Record 1F3P Park Mountain South Thompson % F4P Enderby South Thompson F6P Celista Mountain South Thompson % A2 GLACIER Upper Columbia % A3A FIELD Upper Columbia % A6P Mount Revelstoke Upper Columbia % A7 KICKING HORSE Upper Columbia % A11 BEAVERFOOT Upper Columbia % A14 MOUNT ABBOT Upper Columbia % A16 GOLDSTREAM Upper Columbia % A17 FIDELITY MOUNTAIN Upper Columbia % A18 KEYSTONE CREEK Upper Columbia % A18P Keystone Creek Upper Columbia A19 VERMONT CREEK Upper Columbia % A21P Molson Creek Upper Columbia % A22 SUNBEAM LAKE Upper Columbia % A23 BUSH RIVER Upper Columbia % A KIRBYVILLE LAKE Upper Columbia % A27 DOWNIE SLIDE (LOWER) Upper Columbia % A29 DOWNIE SLIDE (UPPER) Upper Columbia % A3P Colpitti Creek Upper Columbia A31P Caribou Creek Upper Upper Columbia A32P Wildcat Creek Upper Columbia B2A FARRON Lower Columbia % B5 WHATSHAN (UPPER) Lower Columbia % B6P Barnes Creek Lower Columbia % B7 KOCH CREEK Lower Columbia N N N B8P St. Leon Creek Lower Columbia % B9 RECORD MOUNTAIN Lower Columbia % C1 SINCLAIR PASS East Kootenay % C4 SULLIVAN MINE East Kootenay % C7 FERNIE EAST East Kootenay % C9Q Morrissey Ridge East Kootenay % C1P Moyie Mountain East Kootenay % C14P Floe Lake East Kootenay % C15 MOUNT ASSINIBOINE East Kootenay % C16 MOUNT JOFFRE East Kootenay %

9 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code % Minimum Maximum s of Record 2C17 THUNDER CREEK East Kootenay % D2 FERGUSON West Kootenay D3 SANDON West Kootenay % D4 NELSON West Kootenay A 56% D5 GRAY CREEK (LOWER) West Kootenay % D6 CHAR CREEK West Kootenay % D7A DUNCAN LAKE NO. 2 West Kootenay % D8P East Creek West Kootenay % D9 MOUNT TEMPLEMAN West Kootenay % D1 GRAY CREEK (UPPER) West Kootenay A 8% D14P Redfish Creek West Kootenay % E1 MONASHEE PASS Kettle % E2 CARMI Kettle A 58% E3 BIG WHITE MOUNTAIN Kettle % E7P Grano Creek Kettle % F1A TROUT CREEK (West) Okanagan % F1P Trout Creek West Okanagan F2 SUMMERLAND RESERVOIR Okanagan % F3 MC CULLOCH Okanagan % F4 GRAYSTOKE LAKE Okanagan % F5P Mission Creek Okanagan % F7 POSTILL LAKE Okanagan % F8P Greyback Reservoir Okanagan F9 WHITEROCKS MOUNTAIN Okanagan % F1P Silver Star Mountain Okanagan F11 ISINTOK LAKE Okanagan % F12 MOUNT KOBAU Okanagan % F13 ESPERON CR (UPPER) Okanagan % F14 ESPERON CR (MIDDLE) Okanagan % F18P Brenda Mine Okanagan % F19 OOYAMA LAKE Okanagan % F2 VASEUX CREEK Okanagan % F21 BOULEAU LAKE Okanagan % F23 MACDONALD LAKE Okanagan % F24 ISLAHT LAKE Okanagan F POSTILL LAKE UPPER Okanagan G3P Blackwall Peak Similkameen %

10 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code % Minimum Maximum s of Record 2G4 LOST HORSE MOUNTAIN Similkameen B 76% G5 MISSEZULA MOUNTAIN Similkameen B 65% G6 HAMILTON HILL Similkameen B 53% A1 GROUSE MOUNTAIN South Coast % A2 POWELL RIVER (UPPER) South Coast 2 NS NS NS A5 POWELL RIVER (LOWER) South Coast 882 NS NS NS A9 PALISADE LAKE South Coast % A9P Palisade Lake South Coast A1 DOG MOUNTAIN South Coast % A19 ORCHID LAKE South Coast % A2 CALLAGHAN CREEK South Coast % A22P Nostetuko River South Coast % A24P Mosley Creek Upper South Coast % AP Squamish River Upper South Coast % A26 CHAPMAN CREEK South Coast A A27 EDWARDS LAKE South Coast % A28P Tetrahedron South Coast B1 FORBIDDEN PLATEAU Vancouver Island % B2A MOUNT COKELY Vancouver Island B4 ELK RIVER Vancouver Island % B1 UPPER THELWOOD LAKE Vancouver Island % B17P Wolf River Upper Vancouver Island % B18 WOLF RIVER (MIDDLE) Vancouver Island % B19 WOLF RIVER (LOWER) Vancouver Island % B23P Jump Creek Vancouver Island % B24P Heather Mountain Upper Vancouver Island B26P Mount Arrowsmith Vancouver Island C7 WEDEENE RIVER SOUTH Central Coast % C8P Burnt Bridge Creek Central Coast % D1C SUMALLO RIVER WEST Skagit % D2 LIGHTNING LAKE Skagit B 74% D3A KLESILKWA Skagit % A2P Pine Pass Peace % A3 WARE (UPPER) Peace % A3P Ware Upper Peace A4 WARE (LOWER) Peace % A4P Ware Lower Peace

11 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code % Minimum Maximum s of Record 4A5 GERMANSEN (UPPER) Peace % A6 TUTIZZI LAKE Peace % A7 LADY LAURIER LAKE Peace % A9 PULPIT LAKE Peace % A9P Pulpit Lake Peace % A1 FREDRICKSON LAKE Peace % A11 TRYGVE LAKE Peace % A12 TSAYDAYCHI LAKE Peace % A13 PHILIP LAKE Peace % A16 MORFEE MOUNTAIN Peace % A18 MOUNT SHEBA Peace % A2 MONKMAN CREEK Peace % A2P Monkman Creek Peace A21 MOUNT STEARNS Peace % A FORT ST. JOHN A Peace % A27P Kwadacha North Peace A3P Aiken Lake Peace % A31P Crying Girl Prairie Peace A33P Muskwa Kechika Peace A34P Dowling Creek Peace B1 KIDPRICE LAKE Skeena Nass % B2 JOHANSON LAKE Skeena Nass N N N B3A HUDSON BAY MTN. Skeena Nass % B4 CHAPMAN LAKE Skeena Nass % B6 TACHEK CREEK Skeena Nass % B7 MCKENDRICK CREEK Skeena Nass % B8 MOUNT CRONIN Skeena Nass % B1 NINGUNSAW PASS Nass % B11A BEAR PASS Nass % B12P Granduc Mine Skeena Nass B13A TERRACE A Skeena Nass % B14 EQUITY MINE Skeena Nass B15 LU LAKE Skeena Nass B15P Lu Lake Skeena Nass % B16P Shedin Creek Skeena Nass % B17P Tsai Creek Skeena Nass % B18P Cedar Kiteen Skeena Nass %

12 219 Automated Snow Weather Station/Manual Snow Survey Data March Historic Snow Water Equivalent Station ID Name Elevation (masl) Survey Date YYYY MM DD SD (cm) Code % Minimum Maximum s of Record 4C1 SIKANNI LAKE Liard % C1P Sikanni Lake Liard C2 SUMMIT LAKE Liard % C3 DEASE LAKE Liard % C5 FORT NELSON AIRPORT Liard % C15 JADE CITY Liard D1 TELEGRAPH CREEK Stikine D2 ISKUT Stikine % D11P Kinaskan Lake Stikine % E2B ATLIN LAKE Yukon Code A B C E N NA NS SD T Description Sampling problems were encountered Early or late sampling Early or late sampling w/problems encountered Estimate Scheduled, but not sampled Not available Not scheduled Snow Depth Snow Water Equivalent Trace Amount

13 Snow Index Graphs - March 1, 219 Upper Fraser West Upper Fraser East % of % of Nechako 158 Middle Fraser % of % of Lower Fraser North Thompson % of % of

14 Snow Index Graphs - March 1, 219 South Thompson Upper Columbia % of % of West Kootenay East Kootenay % of % of Okanagan Boundary % of % of

15 Snow Index Graphs - March 1, 219 Similkameen South Coast % of % of Vancouver Island Central Coast % of % of Skagit Peace 142 % of % of

16 Snow Index Graphs - March 1, 219 Stikine Skeena-Nass % of % of Liard 137 Northwest % of % of No Data