Effects of childbearing postponement on cohort fertility in germany Olga Pötzsch, Bettina Sommer Federal Statistical Office of Germany
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1 Effects of childbearing postponement on cohort fertility in germany Olga Pötzsch, Bettina Sommer Federal Statistical Office of Germany Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Rome, October 2013
2 TFR 1,8 1,4 1,0 Germany Western Germany Eastern Germany 0,
3 1. Cohort fertility 2. Recuperation Index 3. Future cohort fertility?
4 Cohort Fertility in Germany 2011 Completed fertility per woman Cumulative fertility up to given age per woman 2,0 1,5 1,0? 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,
5 Development of cumulative cohort fertility compared to cohort 1973 (~ 1,5 children per woman) Age in years Cumul. fertility < 1,3 children per woman -160 Births per 1000 women, Germany 2011
6 Development of cumulative cohort fertility compared to cohort 1973 (~ 1,5 children per woman) 1,5 children per woman? Age in years Births per 1000 women, Germany 2011
7 1. Cohort fertility 2. Recuperation Index 3. Future cohort fertility?
8 Source: Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Lesthaeghe, R., Frejka, T.: Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility: New Analytical and Projection Methods and their Application in European Demographic Research Papers
9 RI c = R c P c *100 Source: Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Lesthaeghe, R., Frejka, T.: Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility: New Analytical and Projection Methods and their Application in European Demographic Research Papers
10 Recuperation Index and deviation of cumulative fertility rate from 1946 reference cohort, western Germany (%) RI at age 40 RI at age 37 RI at age 35 RI at age Deviation at trough cohorts
11 Recuperation Index and deviation of cumulative fertility rate from 1960 reference cohort, eastern Germany(%) RI at age 40 RI at age 37 RI at age 35 RI at age Deviation Abweichung at im trough Tiefpunkt
12 1. Cohort fertility 2. Recuperation Index 3. Future cohort fertility?
13 Estimations of completed fertility West and East Germany cumulated CFR Destatis estimation based on RI - ( ) Destatis 12. coordin. Pop. Projection ( ) M. Myrskylä stochastic projection ( ) cohort year west 1,20 1,54 1,57 1,57 east 1,22 1,56-1,58 1,56 1,58
14 Future cohort fertility - age at childbearing and birth interval
15 Age of mothers at birth of first child by total number of their children (years) child 2 children 3 children 4 children Mothers 35 to 44 years old, all children live at mother s household, still; microcensus
16 Birth interval and age of mother at childbearing 2012 Change against 2009 years Interval median to preceding child 2. birth 3,3 +0,1 3. birth 3,9 0,0 Age at 3. birth 33,0 +0,14 Age at 1. birth (all mothers) 29,2 +0,34
17 Summary 29 years Average age at 1th birth 25 years year cohort
18 Summary 29 years Average age at 1th birth 25 years 3,5 children per mother Mothers with 3 or more children 1,6 children per mother Mothers with 1 or 2 children year cohort
19 Summary 29 years Average age at 1th birth 25 years 3,5 children per mother Mothers with 3 or more children 1,6 children per mother Mothers with 1 or 2 children Proportion of childless women 23 % 12 % year cohort
20 Summary 2,0 children per mother * 80 % = 1,6 children per woman 3,5 children per mother 1,6 children per mother 1,9 children per mother * 80 % = 1,5 children per woman 23 % 12 % 2,0 children per mother * 77 % = 1,5 children per woman year cohort
21 Cohort fertility in Germany 2011 and future development Completed fertility, children per woman Cumulative fertility up to given age per woman 2,0 2,0 1,5 1,5 1,0 1,0 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,
22 Contact: F2 Population, Microcensus, Living and Migration Bettina Sommer Olga Pötzsch Fachgebiet
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