German agricultural sector MONICA RAUMIS temperature precipitation climatic indices forest climatic water balance wine
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1 Application of the Model-Based Knowledge System LandCaRe DSS to Pilot Regions for Climate Change Adaptation in Germany Analyses at Regional and Local Scale Barbara Köstner, Erhard Albert, Michael Berg, Christian Bernhofer, Tobias Donix, Ulrich Henk, Johannes Franke, K. Christian Kersebaum, Matthias Kuhnert, Wilfried Mirschel, Claas Nendel, Karl- Otto Wenkel, Ralf Wieland
2 German agricultural sector RAUMIS evaporation BAGLUVA temperature climatic water balance climatic indices phenology wine PHÄNO precipitation EÖM-MONICA EÖM-YIELDSTAT net returns farm CO 2 H 2 O forest grassland SVAT-CN climate stations GL-PROD BAGLUVA grassland TREND SAISON FREQUENZ ground water recharge fruits water irrigation BERBEDÜ ZUWABE EROSION erosion ONTO YIELDSTAT yield plant development rotation fertilisation soil management MONICA seepage N percolation C turnover
3 LandCaRe DSS: scales National: Germany Regional: political districts or catchments Local: farms time span: /2100 WETTREG, CLM (REMO) temporal resolution: 1 day spatial resolution of soil data: 100 m grid length spatial resolution of climate data: 18 km (10 km, 1 km)
4 Change of Yield in Regions of Saxony Analysis of yield data from 1956 to 2007 in different production regions Low impact of CC on loess soils High impact of drought on sandy soils Standortregionen Erzgebirgskamm und vorland, Vogtland, Elsterbergland High variation of yield, especially in dry years for summer crops and maize, potatoes, beet and grassland Mittelsächsisches Lößgebiet Oberlausitz, Sächsische Schweiz Mountain range: Sächsisches Heidegebiet, Riesaer-Torgauer-Elbtal Under sufficient water supply increase in yield of winter crops, maize and beet
5 Change of Yield in Saxony ( ) Winterweizen-Ertrag dt/ha Winter Wheat Maize (silage) Grassland Sachsen b = 0, b = 0, b = 0,7331 Mais-Ertrag dt/ha Sachsen b = 1, b = 1, b = -0,920 Dauerwiesen/Mähweiden-Heuertrag dt/ha Sachsen Saxony Saxony Saxony b = 0, b = -0, breeding & technology drought effects fertilisation effects regression lines: before reunification after reunification
6 Change of Yield in Saxony ( ) Winterweizen-Ertrag dt/ha Winter Wheat Maize (silage) grassland b = 0, b = 0, b = 0,8035 Mais-Ertrag dt/ha Sachsen b = 1, b = 1, b = -0,920 Dauerwiesen/Mähweiden-Heuertrag dt/ha Sachsen Kreis Sachsen Saxony Freiberg b = 1,1393 Saxony Saxony b = 0, higher elevations b = 0, b = 0, b = -0, Kreis Freiberg Kreis Freiberg Kreis Freiberg Kreis Freiberg breeding & technology drought effects fertilisation effects regression lines: before reunification after reunification
7 Simulation of Future Yield with YIELDSTAT Relative change of yield in compared to Saxony winter wheat silage maize winter rye winter rape winter barley No CO 2 fert., no technol. + CO 2 fert., + progress FACE Manderscheid, Weigel et al. humid dry pessimistic optimistic
8 LandCaRe DSS: Simulation of Regional Irrigation Need Uecker catchment in Brandenburg WETTREG A1B
9 Conclusions Model-based knowledge systems support integrative analyses and strategic planning (crossing scales, cross-sectional) Regional climate change and should be analysed from climatic projections of the future and trends of the past Modelling impact (yield, ecological functions) of climate change needs to be supported by continued monitoring Uncertainty in predicting long-term trends of agricultural yield is related to lack of knowlege on processes related to agronomy (CO 2 -fertilisation, progress in breeding, technology, etc.) and to the realisation of weather in climate projections
10 Perspectives of the LandCaRe DSS will be used in regional working groups of farmers and the extension authority in Saxony will be transferred to other regions in Germany may be further developed to transfer knowledge on ecosystem services Posters Model MONICA C. Nendel, Ch. Kersebaum et al. (no. 324) CO 2 -fertilisation effect R. Manderscheid, H.-J. Weigel, M. Erbs (no. 147,149, 150)
11 Land, Climate and Resources - Decision Support System: LandCaRe DSS Yield Ecosystem Services Regional climate change: various downscaling methods and emission scenarios - WETTREG, CLM, (REMO) A1B, B1 Past and Future Climate Plant Production Ecological Indicators Water and N Fluxes Local Regional Models and Parameters User Interface + socio-economic scenarios on land-use and prices
12 Simulation of Future Yield in Saxon Regions Relative change of yield in compared to Winter wheat mountain range sandy soil
13 LandCaRe DSS: National Map of Irrigation Need Simulation for J. Anter, R. Stonner, H. Gömann, vti
14 Regional Climate Change of the Past Absolute trend of temperature ( C) in spring (left) and summer (right) data Meteorologie, TU Dresden
15 Regional Climate Change of the Past Absolute trend of temperature ( C) in fall (left) and winter (right) data Meteorologie, TU Dresden
16 Regional Climate Change of the Past Relative trend of precipitation (%) in summer (left) and winter (right) data Meteorologie, TU Dresden
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