Strategic Intelligence National Television Report. Winter Olympics

Transcription

1 Strategic Intelligence National Television Report Winter Olympics Vancouver, Canada February 2010

2 HEADING INTO THE GAMES Coming off the spectacle that was Beijing, many Olympics fans had high hopes for the Winter Games in Vancouver. However, unlike 2008, there didn t seem to be as much hype, as many storylines, or as much anticipation. Instead of Michael Phelps and Usain Bolt, there was Lindsey Vonn and Apollo Anton Ohno. Instead of the intrigue of how the Communist host country would handle everything from news reports to smog, there was the wet Vancouver weather. And instead of USA Basketball trying to reclaim its world dominance, there was the question of whether or not anyone would beat the Canadian Hockey team. Along with the lack of compelling storylines, the Olympics would also be riding the coattails of Super Bowl XLIV, the most-watched program in television history OLYMPICS TRIVIA The U.S. set a Winter Olympics record by winning an astounding 37 total medals. Only four countries have ever won the overall medal count outright: Norway (5), the Soviet Union/Russia (7), Germany/East Germany (6), and the US (2). The Koreans won all of their 14 medals in skating events. Finland, with five medals, had its worst Olympics since No country won a Winter Olympics medal for the first time. To say that the Vancouver Games were playing second fiddle would not have been an understatement. However, much like THE BACHELOR does for CASTLE and NCIS does for NCIS: LA, Beijing provided a great lead-in for Vancouver. PRIME TIME RATINGS Beijing s Opening Ceremonies seemed to have set the standard for such events. Its strangely-costumed dancers, digitally-enhanced fireworks, and parade of designer clothing-clad athletes had people talking throughout the following weekend, providing a great launch pad for the Games. Vancouver benefited from the 08 excitement, as evidenced by the strong audience numbers NBC experienced. The VANCOUVER OPENING CEREMONIES generated a 16.4 live household rating, only 1.4 points under what Beijing earned. Unfortunately for NBC, the excitement dwindled rapidly, and the OPENING CEREMONIES would prove to be the highestrated broadcast of the Games Daily NBC Prime Ratings Flow H H LD Live P18-49 Live P50+ Live 2/12/2010 2/13/2010 2/14/2010 2/15/2010 2/16/2010 2/17/2010 2/18/2010 2/19/2010 2/20/2010 2/21/2010 2/22/2010 2/23/2010 2/24/2010 2/25/2010 2/26/2010 2/27/2010 2/28/2010 Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer; Live program average

3 Expectations were high for the 2010 Games, and after the Opening Ceremonies got off to such a strong start, it looked like those expectations could be met. The general feeling from NBC was that Vancouver, being on the North American continent and in the US Pacific time zone, would be able to out-perform the 2006 Torino Games. As is usually the case, Vancouver s success, or lack thereof, depends on which metric and demographic is analyzed. As the chart on the right shows, Vancouver handily beat Torino on households the most commonly used demographic among media pundits. That household rating, however, was driven by increased viewership among older demos. Adults and adults 50+ saw increases of 10% and 8% respectively over Torino. These two demos make up a large portion of the television audience and have allowed NBC to tout total viewership successes. AN OLYMPICS FOR THE AGED While the increase in P50+ viewership is nice for overall reach, few clients buy on older demographics, with adults and adults being far more common. From that perspective, the Vancouver Games don t appear nearly as successful. P18-34, P18-49, and P25-54 were all within 2% of their 2006 levels. Considering the more favorable time zone of these Games and the general Olympics excitement created by Beijing, some of the luster gets lost on the 2010 Games. With the previously mentioned increases on older demos, it s no surprise that the Vancouver Games skewed distinctly older than the usual network prime schedule. Comparing NBC s prime coverage of the Olympics to the prime schedule leading up to the Opening Ceremonies, the differences become clear (right). P50+ composition was up seven percentage points, while P18-49 declined four percentage points. The prime time program ranker during the Olympics changes quite a bit when looking at younger viewers as well. If looking merely at households, NBC owns 14 of the top 15 prime broadcasts over the course of the Games. The one other telecast to crack the list was the Tuesday edition of AMERICAN IDOL during the 2nd week of the Games. That one episode of IDOL missed out on first place by almost five full ratings points. NBC Prime Ratings Live Averages by Demo 2010 Index to Index to Demo Vancouver Torino Salt Lake HH P P W M P W M P W M P W M P W M P W M Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 2/12-2/28/10, 2/10-2/26/06, 2/8-2/24/02

4 However, when the prime ranker is sorted by P18-34 live program average ratings, AMERICAN IDOL takes five of the top fifteen spots, including three of the top five (below). IDOL misses owning the top spot by only eight hundredths of a point. HOUSEHOLD Ranker ADULTS Ranker 02/12/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM OPEN CEREM /17/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM WED PRIME /17/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM WED PRIME /23/2010 FOX AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY /20/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SAT PRIME /16/2010 FOX AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY /18/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM THU PRIME /12/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM OPEN CEREM /14/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SUN PRIME /24/2010 FOX AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY /15/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM MON PRIME /13/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SAT PRIME /13/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SAT PRIME /15/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM MON PRIME /26/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM FRI PRIME /18/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM THU PRIME /25/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM THU PRIME /14/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SUN PRIME /19/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM FRI PRIME /20/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SAT PRIME /21/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SUN PRIME /17/2010 FOX AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY /23/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM TUE PRIME /25/2010 FOX AMERICAN IDOL THU SP /22/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM MON PRIME /25/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM THU PRIME /23/2010 FOX AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY /26/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM FRI PRIME /16/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM TUE PRIME /21/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SUN PRIME Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, Live program average ratings by telecast, 2/12/10-2/28/10 NON-PRIME DAYPARTS Deservedly, prime time gets much of the focus, but it s those other dayparts when much of the live action takes place. NBC s daytime, weekend, and late night coverage of the Games had mixed levels of success when compared to the Torino Games in As might be expected with Vancouver sharing a time zone with at least part of the US, NBC s daytime and weekend coverage were popular destinations for viewers who wanted to see live events and follow the Games on television rather than on-line. Weekend coverage was the star with every demo of significance up 7% or more, with most being up over 20% from the Torino Games. N BC N on -Prime Daypart Ratin g s L iv e A v era ge R a tin gs D ayti me Index to Lat e N i g ht Index to W e e k e nd Index to AvgRating Torino AvgRating Torino AvgRating Torino H H P W M P W M P W M P W M P W M P W M Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, Live average daypart ratings.

5 While the Games time zone helped, it hurt the late night ratings. With no live events and much of the programming made up of replays from daytime, late night viewership was down significantly from Torino. The biggest declines in this daypart were seen among males, with M18-34 down 29%, M18-49 down 18%, and M25-54 down 20%. More surprisingly, M50+, who helped contribute to the household increase in prime for these Games, moved away from late night, turning in an average rating down 28% from 06. THE GOLD MEDAL HOCKEY GAME Perhaps the most exciting event of the whole Olympics was the Gold Medal hockey game pitting the tournament-favorite Canadians against the young underdog Americans. The U.S. upset its neighbors to the north early in the tournament, setting up a classic David vs. Goliath rematch in the game that mattered most. Thankfully for fans, the game was aired in high-def on NBC instead of standard-def on MSNBC as had the previous games of the tournament OLYMPICS TRIVIA The gold, silver, and bronze medals in men s hockey were won by Canada, the U.S., and Finland respectively. Coincidentally, the same countries won the same medals in women s hockey. In the end, the U.S. would lose in overtime on a goal by one of the NHL s best players, Canada s Sidney Crosby. Ryan Miller, the U.S. goalie, was the MVP of the tournament as the U.S. took home the silver. Finland took home the bronze, while the other tournament favorite, Russia, went home empty-handed and fired everyone from the head coach to the water boy the following week. This exciting game had such a large audience that Nielsen spent an extra 48 hours tabulating the data, effectively delaying the release of important ratings analyses, like this one! In fact, the 14.0 live average rating of the actual game was enough to bump up the entire weekend daypart for NBC. Since there was limited advertiser presence in the actual hockey game, omitting it from the SUNDAY PM 3 programming block in which it aired and recalculating the weekend daypart average ratings can paint a slightly more accurate picture for client teams of just how well the weekend performed. Weekend Live Average Weekend Live Average With the Gold Index WITHOUT the Gold Index Medal hockey game Torino Medal hockey game Torino HH A W M A W M A W M A W M A W M A W M Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 2/20-2/21/10, 2/27-2/28/10 The non-hockey ratings exclude the time period beginning at 3pm EST and ending at 6:30pm EST

6 A QUICK NOTE ON DVR USAGE In general, sports broadcasts don t see much of a boost from DVR usage. However, the Olympics can be an exception to that as people record daytime events to watch in the evening or record prime time so they can skip commercials and programming fluff. Only a portion of the Live+7 data has been released so far, but the table below details the gains in ratings from Live to Live+7 for what is available. While some of the percentage increases from Live to Live+7 may seem significant, they pale when compared to regularly-scheduled, prime time shows. Below is a sample of some of prime time s more popular programs and the bump they experience from Live to Live+7. CABLE NBC Olympic Prime LIVE vs. LIVE+7 Ratings HHLD HHLD P25-54 P25-54 INDEX Live Live+7 Live Live+7 INDEX 02/12/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM OPEN CEREM /13/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SAT PRIME /14/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SUN PRIME /15/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM MON PRIME /16/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM TUE PRIME /17/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM WED PRIME /18/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM THU PRIME /19/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM FRI PRIME /20/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SAT PRIME /21/2010 NBC WNTR OLYM SUN PRIME Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, 2/12/10-Most current data available, Live program average and Live+7 program average Live+7 to Live Index HH P25-54 ABC BACHELOR, THE ABC MODERN FAMILY CBS NCIS CBS TWO AND A HALF MEN Fox Fox AMERICAN IDOL-TUESDAY Fox AMERICAN IDOL-WEDNESDAY NBC BIGGEST LOSER NBC OFFICE Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, Program average, weeks of 1/18/10-2/8/10. A key part of NBC s coverage of the Olympics is NBC Universal s multiple cable outlets. USA, MSNBC, and CNBC allow NBC to get more of the Games out to the audience. NBC usually puts less-popular events, like curling and qualifyinground hockey, on the ancillary cable networks, leaving the big events for the parent channel. Because of the dynamic programming schedules, along with time zone differences and inconsistencies in daypart structure, comparing 2010 s cable ratings to those of 2006 would be very apples to oranges and thus is not included. However, the table on the following page details the ratings that USA, MSNBC, and CNBC received during the Vancouver Games.

7 USA GOING FORWARD MSNBC DAYPART DAY DAY FRINGE WE LATE OVER FRINGE LATE OVER PRIME WE FRINGE WE PRIME DAY(S) MTWTFSS..WTFSS MTWT......FSS MTWTFSS MTWTF.. MTWTF...TWT... MTWTF.....SS...SS START 12:00 PM VAR 5:30 PM 12:00 AM 3:00 AM 5:00 PM 12:00 AM 3:00 AM 8:00 PM 5:00 PM VAR # TC HHLD P W M P W M P W M P W M P W M P W M Source: Nielsen Galaxy Explorer, Live average program ratings The 2014 Winter Olympics are scheduled to be played in Sochi, Russia, during February of This will mark the first time that Russia has hosted the Olympic Games in any fashion since the days of the Soviet Union (Moscow, 1980). The 2014 Games will be presented with many challenges, both before and during the Games. First of all, a good portion of the Olympic event venues are scheduled to be constructed in and near a Russian national nature reserve, raising the concerns of many environmentalist groups, including Greenpeace. This could result in negative publicity for sponsors should this issue become a hot topic in the U.S. media. Second, there is an eight hour time difference between New York and Sochi, Russia. Much like the Athens Summer Games, most Americans will be in bed when the events are taking place in Russia. This means tape delays and internet spoilers negatively affecting the prime time ratings. Third, the event that delivered the most thrilling competition of the 2010 Games may be only a shadow of itself in the 2014 Games. The NHL doesn t see the value of an Olympics that won t be seen live by American fans and may not allow its players to make the trip. This has all kinds of implications on television rights, NHL work stoppages, and advertiser dollars. Finally, and perhaps most importantly for SMG clients, the television rights for the 2014 and 2016 Games haven t been awarded yet. The two leading contenders are NBC and ESPN, with the winner being announced later this year. Everything from programming format to sponsorship pricing depends greatly on which network group gets the Games. Stay tuned CNBC