Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary Results. Adam Fenech Climate University of Toronto August 28, 2010

Transcription

1 Climate Change at Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve: Preliminary Results Adam Fenech Climate University of Toronto August 28, 2010

2 Special Considerations Data used is from Canada s National Climate Data and Information Archive Data is QA/QC d but not homogenized (not the Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data) Archive sometimes removes very extreme values inadvertently Page 2

3 Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change (RAICC) Step 1 Build History of Climate Extremes Observational Data Step 3 Build Future of Climate Extremes Model Output Step 4 Climate Change Environmental Predictions 10 eco-sectors Step 2 Evaluate and Select Climate Model Step 5 Relative Risk Assessment Impacts of Climate Change Page 3

4 Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve Page 4

5 Glossary Tmax = maximum temperature Tmin = minimum temperature Tmean = mean temperature DJF = Winter MAM = Spring JJA = Summer SON = Autumn Page 5

6 Looking Into the Past Page 6

7 Annual Mean Temperature Changes Annual Mean Temperature FABR 1968 to C degrees Celsius Year Page 7

8 Annual Temperatures Tmean driven by Tmax! Observed Annual Temperature for Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2008 Temperature ( C) Tmax = 1.66 C Tmean = 1.13 C Tmin = 0.61 C Year Page 8

9 Annual Maximum Temperatures by Season Tmax driven by DJF Seasonal Tmax FABR 1968 to 2009 Tmax ( C) C 1.4 C 1.4 C 3.2 C Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 9

10 Annual Total Precipitation Annual Total Precipitation FABR 1968 to mm/day 3.5 mm/day Year Page 10

11 Total Precipitation by Season FABR 1968 to Total Precipitation by Season FABR 1968 to 2008 Overall 0.06 mm/day SON 0.6 mm/day mm/day Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 11

12 Precipitation Frequency SON, 33 DJF, 36 % days per season Precipitation Frequency by Season FABR 1968 to 2009 Overall 3% JJA 9% JJA, Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 12 MAM, 32

13 Precipitation Intensity mm/day Precipitation Intensity by Season FABR 1968 to 2009 Overall 0.6 mm/day JJA 1.88 mm/day Year DJF MAM JJA SON Page 13

14 Dry Days 1970 MAM, JJA 2009 SON Consecutive Dry Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # days Year Page 14

15 Wet Days 1968 SON 2004 JJA 3-day Maximum Precipitation Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to mm Year Page 15

16 Hot Days 4 days/year 1983, 1988, 2005 Xtreme Hot Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days >30 C Year Page 16

17 Cold Days 6 days/year 1968, 1976, 1989, 1994, 2003 Xtreme Cold Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days <-20 C Year Page 17

18 Growing Season 4 days/year Growing Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Page 18

19 Frost Season 17 days/year Frost Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Page 19

20 Looking Into the Future Page 20

21 Emission Scenarios Future climate cannot be predicted because future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions unknown 3 primary GHG indicators Human population Global economy type Energy type Page 21

22 Emission Scenarios A1 - The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:rapid economic growth; a global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines; the quick spread of new and efficient technologies; a convergent world income and way of life converge between regions; and extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide. There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis: A1FI - an emphasis on fossil-fuels; A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources; and A1T - emphasis on non-fossil energy sources. A2 - The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations; continuously increasing population; regionally oriented economic development; and slower and more fragmented technological changes and improvements to per capita income. B1 - The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by: rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy; population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1; reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies; and an emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability. Page 22

23 Future Climate - Tmean Page 23

24 Future Climate - Tmean Page 24

25 Future Climate - Ptotal Page 25

26 Future Climate - Ptotal Page 26

27 Growing Season 4 days/year during past 40 years 33 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Growing Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 27

28 Frost Season 17 days/year over past 40 years 30 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Frost Season Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 28

29 Environmental Prediction Vulnerability/Opportunity Thresholds Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Tourism Premium Golf Days Annual sum of days where daily Tmean>18 C and Tmean<28 C, * 80.7% where Pdaily >0 and <2.5mm, *64.7% where Pdaily >2.5mm and <5mm, *0 where Pdaily >10mm, and *0 where previous day s Pdaily >20mm Scott and Jones,2006 Water Quality Waterborne Disease Outbreaks Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 90th percentile Ptotal, Tmin>0 C; and Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 2*standard deviation of Ptotal, Tmin>0 C Curriero et al., 2001 Auld et al., 2001 Forests Southern Pine Beetle Annual sum of days where daily Tmin <-16 C Ungerrer et al., 1999 Built Environment Pavement Damage Due to Frost Depth Annual sum of 0 C daily Tmean Raymond et al., 2003 Biodiversity West Nile Virus Annual sum of days where daily Tmean >30 C Dohm et al., 2001 Page 29

30 Environmental Prediction Vulnerability/Opportunity Thresholds Eco-sector Indicator Formula Main Source Human Health Salmonella Poisoning Annual sum total of % where for every C of daily Tmean > - 10 C, *1.2% Fleury et al., 2006 Fisheries Macroinvertebrate Change Average 2-decade Tmean minus previous average 2-decade Tmean divided by 1.5 C * six percent Burgmer et al., 2007 Energy Cooling/Heati ng Degree Days Annual sum of days where T mean >18 C (cooling); Annual sum of days where T mean <18 C (heating) Diaz and Quayle, 1980 Transportation Road Accidents Annual sum of days where Pdaily > 0 mm, *2.4% Keay and Simmonds, 2007 Agriculture Corn Heat Units (Ymax + Ymin) 2 where: Ymax = (3.33 x (Tmax-10.0))-(0.084 x (Tmax-10.0)2) (If values are negative, set to 0); Tmax = Daily maximum air temperature ( C); Ymin = (1.8 x (Tmin-4.4)) (If values are negative, set to 0); and Tmin = Daily minimum temperature ( C) Brown and Bootsma, 1997 Page 30

31 Premium Golf Days 1 day/year in past 40 years projected 22 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Premium Golf Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Observed A2 Page A1B 31 B1

32 Pine Beetle 14 days/yr in past 40 years projected 17 days/yr by 2100 Past and Future Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Observed Page A2 32 A1B B1

33 Pavement Damage 18% over 40 years projected 49% by 2100 Past and Future Potential Pavement Damage Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to 2100 Frost Index (000s) Year Observed A2 A1B B1 Page 33

34 Risk of West Nile Virus 5 days/year in past 40 years projected 32 days/year by 2100 Past and Future Potential Risk of West Nile Virus Frontenac Arch Biosphere Reserve 1968 to # of days Year Observed A2 A1B B2 Page 34

35 Conclusions Past Climate Annual mean temperature 1 C over past 40 years Tmean increase driven by Tmax ( 1.66 C) - different from global and regional temperature increases Tmax increase driven by Winter temperatures ( 3.2 C) Annual mean precipitation has not changed much over past 40 years - largest change in Autumn ( 0.6mm/day) Raining more often (frequency) 4% ( 9% JJA) Raining less hard (especially in Summer 1.88 mm/day) Page 35

36 Conclusions Past Climate 2 >40 consecutive dry days in 1970 (MAM, JJA) and 2009 (SON) >90 3-day maximum precipitation in 1968 (SON) and 2004 (JJA) Xtreme Hot Days 4 days/year >20 days in 1983, 1988, 2005 Xtreme Cold Days 6 days/year >20 days in 1968, 1976, 1989, 1994, 2003 Growing Season 4 days/year over past 40 years Frost Season 17 days/year over past 40 years Page 36

37 Conclusions Future Climate Annual Mean Temperature C by 2050s Annual Total Precipitation 6% by 2050s Growing Season 33days/year by 2100 Frost Season 30 days/year by 2100 Page 37

38 Environmental Predictors Premium Golf Days Potential Pine Beetle Killing Days 1 day/year in past 40 years projected 22 days/year by days/yr in past 40 years projected 17 days/yr by 2100 Pavement Damage Risk of West Nile Virus 18% over 40 years projected 49% by days/year in past 40 years projected 32 days/year by 2100 Page 38

39 Next Steps? Fire weather index (PCA) Crop study Snow study Opossum Page 39