Page 1 of 12. ISM Survey Report December 2008

Transcription

1 Page 1 of 12 Tons on hand would cover current shipping levels for how many months? Reporting Period 0-1 mo 1-2 mo 2-3 mo 3-4 mo 4-5 mo 6+ mo December % 30.0% 35.0% 10.0% January % 47.6% 19.0% 9.5% February % 40.0% 20.0% 10.0% March % 38.9% 27.8% 5.6% April % 11.1% 27.8% 11.1% 5.6% May % 33.3% 19.0% 14.3% 4.8% June % 23.8% 28.6% 9.5% 9.5% July % 38.9% 22.2% 11.1% 5.6% August % 47.1% 29.4% 5.9% 5.9% September % 31.6% 31.6% 10.5% 5.3% October % 31.6% 26.3% 15.8% November % 50.0% 25.0% 6.2% December % 30.8% 23.1% 15.4% Average 26.1% 34.9% 25.7% 8.7% 4.1%.4% Compared to 12 months ago, tons now on hand are: 4 5 Reporting Period + 20% + 10% Same - 10% - 20% December % 45.0% 20.0% 10.0% January % 57.1% 38.1% February % 25.0% 40.0% 30.0% March % 50.0% 27.8% April % 16.7% 38.9% 22.2% 5.6% May % 38.1% 28.6% 23.8% 4.8% June % 33.3% 38.1% 19.0% July % 22.2% 33.3% 27.8% August % 35.3% 29.4% 23.5% September % 26.3% 47.4% 15.8% October % 26.3% 26.3% 42.1% November % 12.5% 25.0% 43.8% 12.5% December % 30.8% 15.4% 30.8% 7.7% Average 7.5% 24.5% 37.3% 27.8% 2.9%

2 Page 2 of 12 How do you consider your inventory levels compared to demand? Reporting Period Too High Right Too Low December % 65.0% 5.0% January % 61.9% February % 55.0% 5.0% March % 44.4% 16.7% April % 66.7% May % 57.1% 9.5% June % 65.0% 5.0% July % 55.6% 5.6% August % 23.5% 5.9% September % 42.1% October % 42.1% November % 37.5% December % 38.5% Average 44.6% 51.2% 4.2% How do current receipts compare with current shipments? Reporting Period Above Same Below December % 60.0% 30.0% January % 71.4% 23.8% February % 60.0% 25.0% March % 61.1% 16.7% April % 55.6% 27.8% May % 47.6% 38.1% June % 71.4% 14.3% July % 47.1% 17.6% August % 41.2% 23.5% September % 57.9% 26.3% October % 42.1% 42.1% November % 43.8% 37.5% December % 41.7% 16.7% Average 18.8% 54.8% 26.4%

3 Page 3 of 12 Compared to current receipts, receipts for the next 3 months should be: Reporting Period Greater Same Less December % 40.0% 25.0% January % 47.6% 28.6% February % 55.0% 25.0% March % 55.6% 27.8% April % 50.0% 27.8% May % 38.1% 38.1% June % 42.9% 42.9% July % 23.5% 64.7% August % 17.6% 76.5% September % 21.1% 73.7% October % 26.3% 68.4% November % 56.2% December % 8.3% 66.7% Average 16.3% 37.2% 46.4% What will you attempt to do to inventory levels for the next 6 months? Reporting Period Increase Maintain Decrease December % 50.0% 35.0% January % 42.9% 42.9% February % 65.0% 30.0% March % 50.0% 33.3% April % 50.0% 44.4% May % 52.4% 42.9% June % 38.1% 52.4% July % 38.9% 55.6% August % 76.5% September % 57.9% October % 78.9% November % 25.0% 68.8% December % 61.5% Average 6.6% 41.9% 51.5%

4 Page 4 of 12 How do incoming order levels compare to levels needed for your most efficient level of operation? Reporting Period Above Right Below December % 55.0% 40.0% January % 52.4% February % 40.0% 55.0% March % 38.9% 55.6% April % 50.0% 38.9% May % 47.6% 42.9% June % 35.0% 55.0% July % 33.3% 55.6% August % 23.5% 64.7% September % 36.8% 52.6% October % 68.4% November % 12.5% 75.0% December % 7.7% 84.6% Average 7.5% 36.7% 55.8% What do you think will happen to your backlog over the next 3 months? Reporting Period Increase Same Decrease December % 25.0% 45.0% January % 28.6% 47.6% February % 40.0% 35.0% March % 38.9% 44.4% April % 44.4% 38.9% May % 42.9% 38.1% June % 35.0% 50.0% July % 33.3% 55.6% August % 31.2% 56.2% September % 21.1% 68.4% October % 26.3% 63.2% November % 66.7% December % 16.7% 66.7% Average 16.5% 32.5% 51.1%

5 Page 5 of 12 What do you expect the trend to be in your incoming orders for the next 3 months? Reporting Period Up Same Down December % 25.0% 30.0% January % 33.3% 38.1% February % 40.0% 25.0% March % 50.0% 33.3% April % 44.4% 27.8% May % 52.4% 23.8% June % 33.3% 42.9% July % 27.8% 50.0% August % 41.2% 41.2% September % 26.3% 63.2% October % 10.5% 78.9% November % 18.8% 68.8% December % 7.7% 84.6% Average 22.4% 32.4% 45.2% How do present operating levels compare with your most efficient levels of operation? Reporting Period Above Right Below December % 40.0% 55.0% January % 42.9% 52.4% February % 45.0% 45.0% March % 38.9% 50.0% April % 38.9% 44.4% May % 47.6% 47.6% June % 33.3% 47.6% July % 44.4% 50.0% August % 35.3% 58.8% September % 42.1% 52.6% October % 26.3% 68.4% November % 12.5% 81.2% December % 7.7% 84.6% Average 8.3% 36.1% 55.6%

6 Page 6 of 12 Compared to 3 months ago, current shipping levels are: Reporting Period Above Same Below December % 55.0% 40.0% January % 47.6% 33.3% February % 20.0% 40.0% March % 27.8% 44.4% April % 38.9% 22.2% May % 38.1% 28.6% June % 47.6% 33.3% July % 27.8% 50.0% August % 41.2% 47.1% September % 21.1% 68.4% October % 21.1% 68.4% November % 12.5% 75.0% December % 92.3% Average 20.3% 32.0% 47.7% Compared to 12 months ago, current shipping levels are: Reporting Period Above Same Below December % 50.0% 40.0% January % 28.6% 52.4% February % 25.0% 45.0% March % 38.9% 44.4% April % 38.9% 38.9% May % 38.1% 47.6% June % 33.3% 47.6% July % 27.8% 44.4% August % 41.2% 47.1% September % 26.3% 68.4% October % 21.1% 73.7% November % 6.2% 87.5% December % 92.3% Average 15.4% 29.9%% 54.8%

7 Page 7 of 12 Selling prices for our products are: 4 Reporting Period Firm Competitive Weak Very Weak December % 60.0% 10.0% 10.0% January % 57.1% 19.0% 9.5% February % 45.0% 15.0% 15.0% March % 50.0% 22.2% 11.1% April % 50.0% 16.7% 16.7% May % 61.9% 19.0% 4.8% June % 57.1% 14.3% 9.5% July % 66.7% 16.7% 11.1% August % 11.8% 17.6% September % 52.6% 36.8% 5.3% October % 26.3% 15.8% November % 18.8% 25.0% December % 23.1% 23.1% Average 11.2% 56.8% 19.1% 12.9% Compared to 3 months ago, how promptly are customers paying you? Reporting Period More Same Less December % 5.3% January % 5.3% February % 10.5% March % 5.9% April % 82.4% 11.8% May % 5.0% June % 85.0% 10.0% July % 11.1% August % 5.9% September % 16.7% October % 26.3% November % 31.2% December % 38.5% Average.9% 85.8% 13.4%

8 Page 8 of 12 Is any of your workforce on short time or layoff? 1 2 Reporting Period Yes No December % 78.9% January % 78.9% February % 76.5% March % 76.5% April % 93.8% May % 70.0% June % 75.0% July % 75.0% August % 62.5% September % 70.6% October % 52.6% November % 46.7% December % 36.4% Average 30.2% 69.8% Are you hiring new people or do you plan to? 1 2 Reporting Period Yes No December % 50.0% January % 70.0% February % 66.7% March % 64.7% April % 64.7% May % 68.4% June % 70.0% July % 64.7% August % 81.2% September % 66.7% October % 84.2% November % 87.5% December % Average 28.8%% 71.2%

9 Page 9 of 12 Do you plan to build or buy new manufacturing facilities within the next year? 1 2 Reporting Period Yes No December % 72.2% January % 77.8% February % 82.4% March % 92.3% April % 93.3% May % 88.2% June % 94.4% July % 93.3% August % 86.7% September % 82.4% October % 87.5% November % 93.3% December % 81.8% Average 13.7% 86.3% The trend of general economic activity for the next 6 months is expected to be: Reporting Period Up Same Down December % 25.0% 55.0% January % 23.8% 66.7% February % 35.0% 50.0% March % 22.2% 72.2% April % 33.3% 55.6% May % 38.1% 47.6% June % 42.9% 42.9% July % 76.5% August % 29.4% 52.9% September % 68.4% October % 84.2% November % 93.8% December % Average 8.8% 26.2% 65.0%

10 Page 10 of 12 The trend of sales and production in my industry for the next 6 months is expected to be: Reporting Period Up Same Down December % 40.0% 35.0% January % 28.6% 47.6% February % 50.0% 30.0% March % 33.3% 61.1% April % 50.0% 33.3% May % 42.9% 38.1% June % 38.1% 33.3% July % 33.3% 55.6% August % 35.3% 47.1% September % 36.8% 57.9% October % 15.8% 78.9% November % 6.2% 87.5% December % 92.3% Average 15.4% 32.8% 51.9% At present production rates and with no new orders, how long would your current order book last? 4 Reporting Period 1-2 mo 2-4 mo 4-6 mo 6+ mo December % 27.8% 22.2% 5.6% January % 21.1% 15.8% 10.5% February % 33.3% 5.6% 5.6% March % 35.3% 5.9% 5.9% April % 35.3% 5.9% 5.9% May % 11.1% 16.7% 11.1% June % 22.2% 27.8% 5.6% July % 23.5% 11.8% August % 20.0% 6.7% September % 23.5% 5.9% 5.9% October % 27.8% 11.1% November % 26.7% 6.7% December % 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% Average 58.4% 24.7% 9.1% 7.8%

11 Page 11 of 12 Compared to your past practice, what will be your dependence for the next 6 months on off-shore sources? Reporting Period Greater Same Less December % 58.8% 23.5% January % 57.9% 31.6% February % 64.7% 23.5% March % 25.0% April % 43.8% May % 73.7% 15.8% June % 70.0% 25.0% July % 75.0% 18.8% August % 68.8% 25.0% September % 61.1% 22.2% October % 61.1% 22.2% November % 60.0% 20.0% December % 50.0% 33.3% Average 10.5% 64.4% 25.1% Are foreign mill offering prices significantly different from domestic levels? 4 5 Reporting Period Well Above Above No Below Well Below December % 40.0% 35.0% 15.0% 5.0% January % 31.6% 47.4% 10.5% 5.3% February % 36.8% 47.4% 10.5% March % 47.1% 11.8% April % 38.9% 50.0% May % 47.6% 4.8% June % 57.1% 9.5% July % 33.3% 44.4% 16.7% August % 76.5% September % 5.3% 68.4% 10.5% 10.5% October % 52.9% 29.4% 5.9% November % 75.0% 18.8% December % 41.7% Average 3.0% 28.2% 53.8% 12.8% 2.1%

12 Page 12 of 12 Compared to 3 months ago, how active are foreign mills in seeking U.S. business? Reporting Period More Same Less December % 56.2% 37.5% January % 58.8% 35.3% February % 41.2% 41.2% March % 42.9% 50.0% April % 53.3% 40.0% May % 50.0% 22.2% June % 64.7% 17.6% July % 60.0% 20.0% August % 53.3% 20.0% September % 58.8% October % 43.8% 12.5% November % 42.9% December % 41.7% 8.3% Average 24.6% 51.7% 23.6% At this time, how aggressive are foreign mills in seeking U.S. business? 4 Reporting Period Very Normal Sub-Normal No Interest December % 45.0% 20.0% January % 33.3% 38.1% February % 50.0% 25.0% March % 33.3% 38.9% April % 44.4% 33.3% May % 47.6% 33.3% 14.3% June % 38.1% 28.6% 23.8% July % 38.9% 27.8% 27.8% August % 35.3% 47.1% 11.8% September % 36.8% 42.1% 5.3% October % 47.4% 15.8% 21.1% November % 50.0% 31.2% 6.2% December % 58.3% 25.0% Average 6.2% 37.1% 35.4% 21.2%