The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd

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1 The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey Jack L Bishop Jr, PhD President, Kingsbury International Ltd 1

2 WHY ECONOMICS? THE REASON FOR STUDYING ECONOMICS IS TO AVOID BEING DECEIVED BY ECONOMISTS Joan Robinson, famous UK economist 2

3 Goals This Afternoon Share some information about the globally renowned NAPM-Chicago Business Survey. Touch on a role of the NAPM-Chicago Business Survey in Portfolio Management Share an observation or two about the economic prospects for the rest of 2006 Answer your questions candidly 3

4 The NAPM-C C Business Survey Context Government provision of statistics is relatively recent in the USA 20 s and 30 s and before Retail Sales Business Current Statistics may not be what you think they are Physician Services Industrial Production 4

5 Who follows the NAPM-Chicago Business Survey? Government Policy Makers Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve Board Businesses Financial Industrial Service Traders Equity Bond Foreign Exchange 5

6 The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey of interest only to businesses in the Wrong! Interest is world wide Chicago Area RIGHT? Press Agency France Press Jiji Press (Japan) CNBC Barron s London Financial Times Nikkei Reuters Chicago Tribune Kenosha News Chicago Sun Times Australian Associated Press Traders UK Germany Sweden Oh and the USA 6

7 WHY? Established first look at the USA economy each month most economic data is stale Decision makers need fresh data The Chicago Business Barometer has met the test of time What s the economy like now What s more/less likely for the future 7

8 Geographic What is the Geographic Scope? City of Chicago? Chicago Metro Area? Northern Illinois? Great Lakes? Midwest? USA? Global? More than the Chicago Less than the World 8

9 Coverage The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey panelists represent more than one sector. Manufacturing Mining Service Government The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey is NOT a Manufacturing Survey 9

10 Contents Your Business Activity This Month compared to Last Month Higher / Same / Lower Characteristics 1) easy to answer 2) Confidential 3) Doesn t require precision 4) Doesn t require monthly close 10

11 Interpretation Diffusion Index prices paid How many respondents are reporting price increases DOESN T report the rate of inflation DOES report the breadth of inflationary pressure Used ALONG WITH other reports to gauge the current condition of the economy 11

12 Range <50 contracting Metrics This month is lower than last month = accelerating contraction = 50 stalled >50 expanding This month is higher than last month = accelerating expansion 12

13 Production High 59.3 Median 58.0 Average 35.5 Low

14 Production February 06: 56.0 and trend is slowing 14

15 New Orders High 58.4 Median 56.6 Average 36.1 Low

16 New Orders February 06: 54.9 and slowing 16

17 Order Backlogs High 50.1 Median 49.9 Average 33.3 Low

18 Order Backlogs February 06: 50.6 and trend is slowing 18

19 Inventories High 50.1 Median 49.9 Average 33.3 Low

20 Inventories February 06: 56.0 and rising 20

21 Employment High 50.2 Median 49.2 Average 23.5 Low

22 Employment February 06: 54.9 and slowing 22

23 Supplier Deliveries SLOWER is Good! >50 is SLOWER High 51.4 Median 53.1 Average 37.9 Low

24 Supplier Deliveries February 06: 59.2 and trend is faster 24

25 Prices Paid High 66.6 Median 67.9 Average 34.8 Low

26 Prices Paid February 06: 71.6 and slowing 26

27 Buying Policy 27

28 Production Materiels High 24.8 Median 25.2 Average 19.5 Low Days Leadtime

29 Production Materiels Days Leadtime February 06: 27.0 and FALLING 29

30 M.R.O. Supplies High 8.7 Median 9.1 Average 6.6 Low Days Leadtime

31 M.R.O. Supplies Days Leadtime February 06: 8.7 days and Falling 31

32 Capital Equipment High Median Average 75.5 Low Days Leadtime

33 Capital Equipment Days Leadtime February 06: days and Rising 33

34 Chicago Business Barometer Component Weight Production 25% New Orders 35% Order Backlogs 15% Employment 10% Supplier Deliveries 15% 34

35 Chicago Business Barometer and ISM Purchasing Manager Index Barometer PMI Production 25% 25% New Orders 35% 30% Order Backlogs 15% -- Employment 10% 20% Supplier Deliveries 15% 15% Inventories -- 10% 35

36 Chicago Business Barometer High 55.6 Median 54.6 Average 35.3 Low

37 Chicago Business Barometer February 06: 54.9 and slowing 37

38 Buying Policy How long ahead must you plan to buy? Production Materiels Feb 06 M.R.O Supplies Feb 06 Capital Equipment Feb days and slowing 9 days and slowing 123 days and rising 38

39 Summary Production Slowing last 4 mths New Orders Slowing 3 of 4 mths Order Backlogs Slowing 2 of 4 mths Inventory Rising 3 of 4 mths Employment See-Saw Saw low growth Supplier Deliveries Slowing 3 of 4 mths Prices Paid Slowing 3 of 4 mths Not a Perfect Storm yet 39

40 How Can You Use the Survey? Anticipate threats and opportunities Equity markets respond to the release of the Chicago Business Barometer Last month a wardrobe malfunction impacted the S&P futures. Debt markets respond to the release of the Chicago Business Barometer. Currency markets respond to the release of the Chicago Business Barometer. Put economic forecasts in context of evolving reality Most Forecasts for 2006 called for 3½% real growth 4 th Qtr 1.9% real growth compared to 3-4% 3 Forecast suggests caution in believing in even average growth this year 40

41 Forecast for 2006 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Panel of 32 forecasters October 2005 forecasts for th Quarter 2005 forecast vs. preliminary estimates 2006 forecast by quarter 41

42 Forecast for th Quarter 2005 forecast Median Prelim Gross Domestic Product 3.3% 1.9% Personal Consumption 1.7% 1.6% Gross Investment 7.3% 14.8% Net Exports -$630b -$656b Government 2.0% 0.7% Consumer Prices 3.9% 3.6% 42

43 Forecast for 2006 Median Forecast Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr Gross Domestic Product 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% Personal Consumption 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% Gross Investment 8.0% 6.1% 6.0% 5.3% 6.4% Net Exports -$629 -$630 -$620 -$620 -$620 Government 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Consumer Prices 3.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 43

44 SUMMARY NAPM-Chicago Business Survey Modest growth Broader inflation FRB Chicago Outlook Forecast Modest growth Modest inflation 44

45 Thank for the opportunity to share you this hour with you Further background on the Chicago Report Mailing list for the monthly report kingbiz.com 45

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